Group 1 - The Bank of England warns that its long-term bond sales may exacerbate tensions in the UK government bond market, suggesting a potential need to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - An analysis report from Bank of England officials indicates that selling bonds could have a "greater impact" on the liquidity of the UK government bond market amid declining demand for long-term assets [1] - The report highlights that global economic policy uncertainty, significant issuance of government bonds, and structural changes in the domestic bond market have increased bond term premiums, raising risks that quantitative tightening may have a larger impact on market operations than previously thought [1] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently at 1.3459, with a slight increase of 0.06% from the previous close of 1.3451 [1] - If the GBP/USD trades below 1.3450, it may pave the way for a potential pullback, with the next bearish focus on the 1.3400 level and the 20-day simple moving average at 1.3389 [1]

Group 1 - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, stated that uncertainty in fiscal policy has also impacted the term premium on bonds [1]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on July 2, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 98.5 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 365.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding environment has become more relaxed at the beginning of the month, with the overnight pledged repo rate slightly declining to 1.36%, and the 7-day pledged repo rate decreasing by 4 basis points [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.45% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.61%, showing little change from the previous day [6] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed increases: the 30-year main contract rose by 0.40%, the 10-year by 0.14%, the 5-year by 0.07%, and the 2-year by 0.03% [10] Group 5: Policy Developments - A joint plan was issued by the Shanghai branch of the People's Bank of China and ten other departments to enhance financial services for the elderly economy, aiming to increase financial supply and diversify funding sources [11] - Hunan Province has introduced measures to optimize the business environment, including a debt repayment reform to clear inter-company debts by 2027 [11] Group 6: Global Macro Insights - A report from the Dutch bank indicates that the rise in bond term premiums is a global phenomenon, with significant increases noted in both the U.S. and Germany due to fiscal policy concerns and economic stimulus plans [13] Group 7: Bond Market Events - The Ministry of Finance has allocated a new government debt limit of 125.9 billion yuan for Shaanxi Province for 2025 [15] - Sichuan Province is actively seeking central budget investments and long-term special bonds to support key investment areas [15] - Citic Securities has received approval to issue up to 20 billion yuan in perpetual subordinated bonds to professional investors [15]

Group 1 - The global bond term premium is rising, reflecting investor concerns about future interest rate risks and economic policy uncertainties, with Japan's 10-year bond term premium increasing by over 40 basis points since early last year [1] - In Germany, the term premium has also risen over the past two years due to the need to absorb the impact of the European Central Bank's balance sheet reduction and increased government stimulus plans [1] - Goldman Sachs notes that since late April, the market has begun to bet more aggressively on the Federal Reserve adopting easing policies, although any deterioration in U.S. economic growth and employment data could reignite growth concerns [1] Group 2 - BlackRock indicates that while the U.S. economy is slowing, it has not reached alarm levels, with expectations of a moderate slowdown in the labor market maintaining job growth around 100,000 [2] - UBS economists highlight early indicators of a weak U.S. job market, with rising unemployment claims and predictions of only 100,000 new jobs in June [2] - The National Australia Bank suggests that increasing government spending beyond fiscal capacity may undermine market confidence in the U.S. dollar, contributing to its decline [2] Group 3 - Analysts from the Netherlands International Group state that the Bank of England's potential slowdown in quantitative tightening seems to support the British pound, reducing the risk of further depreciation [2] - The South Korean inflation rate is expected to remain around the Bank of Korea's 2% target, allowing for a cautious monetary policy approach focused on financial stability [2] - South Korea's overall consumer inflation rate rose by 2.2% year-on-year in June, slightly above market expectations, indicating stable underlying inflation pressures [2] Group 4 - Phillip Nova's analysis suggests that a weaker U.S. dollar may extend upward momentum in oil prices, despite the market already digesting production increase news [3] - Nomura's economists note that South Korea's strong exports and increased fiscal spending plans may alleviate concerns about economic growth, potentially leading to a more hawkish stance in the upcoming policy meeting [3] - The median wage growth among major employers in the UK increased from 3.2% to 3.4%, with a significant impact on the service sector, while manufacturing was less affected [3]

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent market volatility easing, investors remain concerned about the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries, particularly regarding the direction of U.S. fiscal policy [1] Group 1: Investor Concerns - Investors are anxious about the potential for rising bond term premiums, which could lead to a steeper yield curve and increased worries about Treasury auction outcomes [1] - There is a possibility of credit rating downgrades for U.S. Treasuries, adding to investor unease [1] Group 2: Yield Curve Expectations - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries is expected to steepen further, indicating an increase in the difference between short-term and long-term bond yields [1] - The U.S. Treasury may implement measures to lower financing costs, suggesting a greater reliance on Treasury supply in the coming years [1] Group 3: Treasury Auction and Supply - There is a potential for a reduction in the scale of long-term Treasury auctions, reflecting the changing dynamics in the market [1]