Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing significant turmoil due to political uncertainty and fiscal concerns, with the 10-year bond yield surpassing critical levels, indicating heightened market anxiety [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Yield Movements - On July 15, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 2.5 basis points to 1.595%, the highest level since 2008 [1]. - The 20-year bond yield increased by 3.5 basis points to 2.64%, while the 30-year yield rose by 4 basis points to 3.195%, both reaching levels not seen since 1999 [1]. - Yields on bonds with maturities of 20 years and above have cumulatively increased by at least 20 basis points this month [1]. Group 2: Political Context and Market Reactions - The rise in yields is occurring just before the Japanese House of Councillors election on July 20, with concerns that the ruling coalition may lose, potentially leading to a significant shift in fiscal policy [3][4]. - Analysts warn that a large-scale sell-off by "bond vigilantes" could lead to market turmoil similar to the UK's "Truss moment" in 2022, which was triggered by aggressive tax cuts [3][4]. - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partners face declining support in polls, raising fears of increased fiscal deficits and diminished investor confidence in bonds [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The rise in the 10-year yield is particularly concerning as it directly affects the cost of financing for businesses and households, potentially impacting economic activity [3][4]. - Economists emphasize that while long-term bonds have limited impact on corporate financing, the sustained increase in the 10-year yield warrants close attention, especially given the uncertain fiscal health [3][4]. Group 4: Global Context - The increase in Japanese bond yields is part of a broader global trend, with long-term government bonds worldwide experiencing declines as investors worry about government spending exceeding sustainable levels [6]. - The rise in yields for Japanese bonds of 20 years and longer is seen as part of a global bond sell-off, with concerns about fiscal conditions driving investor behavior [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the steel and commodity industry [5] Core Insights - The report discusses how a civilian prediction indicator has become an "invisible driver" of asset prices, particularly in the steel and commodity sectors. It highlights the strong correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and various asset markets, including commodities, bonds, stocks, and foreign exchange [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating this prediction indicator with traditional economic data and policy interest rate curves for more comprehensive asset allocation [6][10] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The steel industry has shown a performance of -1.9% over the last month, -8.7% over the last three months, and 7.6% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which has seen -0.4%, -3.3%, and 9.4% respectively [4] Asset Linkage Commodity Market - The report notes a significant rise in silver prices and a strong synchronization between the gold-silver ratio and the "U.S. recession expectation." It suggests that when recession probabilities decrease, silver, which has more industrial properties, tends to outperform gold [12] - The report also mentions that the crude oil VIX has shown a close correlation with the "U.S. recession expectation," indicating that market predictions of oil price volatility are influenced by recession expectations [12] Bond Market - The report indicates that when the "U.S. recession expectation" rises, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tends to weaken, although recent trends show some divergence. The 10-2 year yield spread has shown a complex relationship with recession probabilities [15] Stock Market - The report highlights a strong negative correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and the S&P 500 index, suggesting that rising recession expectations directly impact corporate profit outlooks [21] - It also notes that the Russell 2000 to S&P 500 ratio has not returned to early-year highs despite a temporary decline in recession expectations, reflecting ongoing concerns about long-term corporate profitability due to tariff policies [21] Foreign Exchange Market - The report states that the U.S. dollar index has mostly moved inversely to the "U.S. recession expectation," although a gap has emerged since May, potentially linked to U.S. fiscal risks and trade policy uncertainties [22] - The report also mentions that the USD/JPY exchange rate tends to weaken when recession expectations rise, indicating a flight to the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset [22]

华盛顿正上演着惊心动魄的财政博弈。特朗普政府正在全力推动一项涉及数万亿美元的全面减税法案， 但共和党内部出现严重分歧。知情人士透露，至少有5名资深共和党议员公开反对当前版本的法案，他 们担心大规模减税将加剧财政赤字。这场政治角力导致市场担忧，若法案流产可能引发政府停摆危机， 促使大量资金涌入黄金市场避险。 周三（5月21日）亚欧时段，国际金价延续周二的强势上涨行情，截至发稿金价报3310.61美元/盎司， 涨幅0.63%。这场黄金盛宴的背后，是美元指数暴跌至99.42的两周低位，以及美国财政政策不确定性引 发的市场恐慌情绪蔓延。在全球资本市场的惊涛骇浪中，黄金再度展现出"乱世避风港"的独特魅力。 【要闻速递】 美元疲软直接降低了以美元计价的黄金持有成本，刺激了欧洲、亚洲投资者的购买热情。外汇分析师指 出，这轮美元下跌源于穆迪下调美国评级和国际贸易局势担忧等因素。高盛分析师在一份研究报告中写 道："关税税率现在降低了，但并不低，美国的经济衰退风险也是如此。"交易员们还担心，美国官员可 能会在加拿大举行的七国集团(G7)财长会议上施压让美元贬值。 【黄金行情分析】 黄金开盘在3290一线开启反弹，昨晚黄金突破了箱 ...