新年伊始，围绕全球经济走势的分析与2026年前景预判频繁发布。2025年全球经济表现究竟如何？进入 新的一年，全球经济前景又将如何演变？从长远看，中国经济增速将呈何趋势？近日，人民网财经独家 专访了国际货币基金组织（IMF）前秘书长林建海。 核心观点： ·增长动能偏弱、结构性分化加剧、不确定性高企，决定了全球经济仍处在一个"韧而不坚"的微妙状态 之中。 ·在今后一段时期，全球经济将可能呈现出低增长、高债务与高不确定性并存的基本态势。 ·近年来，中国经济在外部环境复杂多变、全球经济缓慢增长的背景下，仍保持了年均5%左右的增长。 这一成绩来之不易，体现了中国经济的韧性与潜力。 ·在挑战与机遇并存的情况下，中国经济仍有条件在较长时期内保持中高速、更加均衡和更具质量的增 长轨迹。 人民网：当前世界经济呈现出什么样的特征？ 林建海：总体来看，当前世界经济呈现出"韧而不坚" 的特征。全球经济仍在增长，但增速缓慢、分化 明显；表面看似尚可，潜在下行风险却不容忽视。正如国际货币基金组织（IMF）首席经济学家所指出 的："我们仍然感到不安，全球经济可能面临潜在的重大冲击。尽管全球经济已经展现出一定的适应能 力，但不确定性依然处 ...

近期，包括世界银行、亚洲开发银行、高盛、德银在内的多家国际组织和投资机构也分别上调了对2025年中国经济增速的预期。世界银行方面表示，中国政 府更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策支撑了国内消费和投资，出口市场更加多元化为保持出口韧性提供了支撑。 国际货币基金组织于1月19日发布《世界经济展望报告》更新内容，将2025年中国经济增长率上调0.2个百分点至5%，同时上调2026年中国经济增长预期。 该组织在比利时布鲁塞尔发布的报告指出，尽管面临美国主导的贸易扰动与不确定性上升，全球经济仍展现一定韧性，预计2026年全球经济增速将维持在 3.3%，较去年10月的预测上调0.2个百分点，上修主要源于美国和中国等经济体表现改善。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃在去年12月于北京举行的2025年中国第四条款磋商新闻发布会上曾表示，尽管面临多重冲击，中国经济仍展现出显著韧 性。她指出，得益于中国政府推出的一系列宏观政策举措等因素，国际货币基金组织作出上调中国经济增速的决定。在更有力的政策支持下，相信中国经济 未来可以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economy demonstrates resilience despite tariff disruptions, with China's market benefiting from net exports and a shift in household savings, presenting investment opportunities [1][3]. Economic Outlook - The global GDP growth rate for 2025 is expected to exceed earlier predictions due to demand-driven factors like inventory replenishment and export competition, although a slowdown is anticipated in 2026 [1][3]. - Fiscal policies and labor market resilience are crucial for sustaining economic stability, with major economies increasing counter-cyclical measures [3][4]. Trade Dynamics - Recent U.S.-China trade developments, including the cancellation of certain tariffs, provide temporary relief, while the global supply chain is undergoing a restructuring towards high-value industries returning to the U.S. and low-value production moving to emerging markets [4][6]. Investment Trends - There is a notable trend of Chinese household savings shifting towards equity-like assets, with a reported increase of 73.7 trillion yuan in deposits from December 2019 to September 2025, reflecting a 55% growth [6][7]. - The Chinese technology sector, particularly in AI, chips, and automation, is highlighted as globally scarce and a key investment focus, emphasizing the importance of long-term commercial viability over short-term valuation [6][7]. Fixed Income Market - The global investment-grade bond market is experiencing significant inflows, with a historical net inflow recorded in August 2025, driven by institutional investors seeking yield [4][6]. - The current yield on global investment-grade bonds has risen to 4%-5%, providing stable returns and risk diversification during stock market volatility [6][7]. Asset Allocation Strategy - A diversified investment strategy across regions, asset classes, and industries is recommended to capitalize on technological advancements and capital rotation while mitigating risks associated with single markets [7]. - The ongoing opening of channels like Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to accelerate foreign investment in Chinese assets, leveraging China's cost advantages and potential for widespread application [7].

Core Insights - The IMF President Kristalina Georgieva stated that the impact of tariffs on the global economy has not been as severe as previously feared, and the effects on the U.S. have diminished [1] - She emphasized that the global economy is showing resilience, but structural challenges remain significant [1] - Georgieva highlighted the current severe imbalances in the global economy, with a primary policy focus on preventing financial instability [1] Fiscal Policy - Certain G7 countries, including the U.S., Japan, France, and Italy, face more serious fiscal issues and need to strengthen fiscal consolidation [1] - Countries with excessive deficits are urged to reduce fiscal deficits and encourage private savings [1] - In contrast, Canada and Germany are noted to have greater fiscal space and more policy flexibility [1] Technological Transformation - Georgieva acknowledged the positive potential of artificial intelligence (AI), predicting that the AI investment boom could contribute 0.1% to 0.8% to global growth and enhance productivity [1] - However, she warned that AI could exacerbate disparities between countries, potentially widening the gap between developed and developing economies [1] Inclusive Growth - It is essential for countries to promote innovation while ensuring that the benefits of growth are more inclusive [2] - Maintaining macroeconomic stability through sound fiscal and financial policies is crucial [2]

Core Insights - The global economy is performing "better than expected, but not enough to meet growth needs," indicating a lack of long-term growth momentum [1] - Geopolitical tensions, technological changes, demographic shifts, and trade relationship adjustments are contributing to decreased predictability in the global economy [2] Economic Performance - IMF's latest forecast predicts global economic growth rates of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, slightly higher than previous expectations [1] - The resilience of the global economy is attributed to strengthened policy and institutional frameworks in many countries, especially emerging markets, and the private sector's adaptability [2] Policy Recommendations - Countries should focus on three main policy priorities to enhance resilience: 1. Unlocking private sector growth potential through ambitious reforms and a supportive regulatory environment [3] 2. Strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals by rebuilding fiscal space and ensuring financial stability [3] 3. Reducing global economic imbalances by encouraging domestic demand in surplus countries and reducing fiscal deficits in deficit countries [3] IMF Initiatives - The IMF is advancing several reforms and cooperation mechanisms to support low-income countries, including enhancing oversight and reviewing loan conditions [3] - The IMF's disaster relief trust fund, which provided significant assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic, is nearly depleted, prompting a call for member countries to consider replenishing this fund for future shocks [3] Future Outlook - Uncertainty is expected to persist, but it also presents opportunities for countries to enhance resilience and capitalize on changes in the global environment [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The panic and risk - aversion sentiment caused by the Sino - US tariff increase may dominate the market in the short term, leading to increased volatility in the container shipping index (European line) futures. In the medium and long term, it depends on global economic resilience and the export substitution effect. If the China - EU trade volume increases or the US tariff rate on Europe is better than expected, the far - month futures prices may perform better than the near - month contracts. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and closely monitor the US policies related to Europe and China - EU foreign trade data in the future [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Data Futures Market - EC主力收盘价为1886.00，较之前上涨180.80；EC次主力收盘价为238.4 [1]. - EC2506 - EC2508价差为+59.50，EC2506 - EC2510价差为61.00，较之前分别上涨 [1]. - EC合约基差为 - 181.30 [1]. - EC主力持仓量为33207手，较之前减少78手 [1]. Spot Market - SCFIS（欧线）（周）为1422.42，较上周回落51.14点，环比下行3.5%；SCFIS（美西线）（周）为1129.45，较之前上涨40.29 [1]. - SCFI（综合指数）（周）为1392.78，较之前上涨35.90；集装箱船运力（万标准箱）为1227.97，较之前上涨0.14 [1]. - CCFI（综合指数）（周）为1507.27，较之前下降9.00；CCFI（欧线）（周）为1102.71，较之前下降19.72 [1]. - 波罗的海干散货指数（日）为1259.00，较之前上涨83.00；巴拿马型运费指数（日）为1203.00，较之前上涨75.00 [1]. - 平均租船价格（巴拿马型船）为0.00，较之前无变化；平均租船价格（好望角型船）为12514.00，较之前下降1618.00 [1]. Industry News - 美国政府将对数十个国家暂停征收对等关税90天，维持最低关税税率为10%；交易员认为美国6月开始降息可能性更大，预计年底美联储总共降息四次 [1]. - 自4月10日12时01分起，原产于美国的所有进口商品加征关税税率由34%提高至84% [1]. - 欧盟27个成员国投票通过对美国进口产品征收25%关税的反制措施 [1]. Key Data to Focus On - April 11, 14:00, UK's three - month GDP monthly rate for February [1]. - April 11, 14:00, UK's manufacturing output monthly rate for February [1]. - April 11, 20:30, US PPI annual rate for March [1]. - April 11, 22:00, US one - year inflation rate expectation preliminary value for April [1]. - April 11, 22:00, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value for April [1].