惠誉：由于全球贸易政策的不确定性持续对借款人造成压力，中国和韩国结构性融资行业的资产表现将继续承压，对中国RMBS（住房抵押贷款支持证券）和汽车贷款以及韩国信用卡的资产表现展望在2026年为“恶化”，而对日本汽车贷款的展望为“中性”。未来全球贸易流动的任何中断都将进一步抑制消费者信心和经济复苏前景。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, GeKowei, stated that its export business has not been significantly affected by the U.S. semiconductor import tariff policy as of November 13 [1] Group 1 - The company will continue to monitor global trade policy developments and will disclose any significant impacts in accordance with relevant regulations [1]

Group 1 - The WTO reports a significant increase in global trade affected by new tariffs, estimating the impact on global merchandise trade at $27.327 billion during the review period, which is more than three times the $8.876 billion reported in the previous 12-month period [1][2] - The proportion of world merchandise imports affected by such measures has risen from approximately 12.5% to 19.4% over the past six months, indicating a notable escalation in tariff levels [2][4] - The report highlights that since 2009, many tariff measures have been introduced and have not been retracted, leading to a cumulative increase in their impact on global merchandise imports [4][5] Group 2 - During the review period, a total of 644 trade measures were implemented by WTO members and observers, with 296 being trade remedy measures, marking the highest number of new investigations in over a decade [4][5] - The trade coverage of trade remedy investigations was estimated at $63.9 billion, a decrease from the previous report, while the termination of trade remedy measures involved $16.3 billion, an increase from the previous report [4][5] - The report also notes a decrease in trade facilitation measures, with an estimated trade coverage of $10.386 billion, down from $14.404 billion in the previous report [6] Group 3 - In the services trade sector, 69 new measures were taken by 34 members and 4 observer countries during the review period, representing a significant decrease compared to the same period last year [7] - Despite the challenging global trade environment, these measures reflect a commitment from WTO members to promote services trade, primarily through easing access conditions for service providers [7] - The use of direct support measures has decreased in favor of regulatory tools as trade barriers have risen since April 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is currently in a state of stagnation, awaiting the direction of global trade policies after July 9, which poses risks for concentrated asset classes if investors misjudge the situation [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming trade policy changes, with a significant emphasis on the potential impact of the U.S. tariff suspension period ending [1] - The current market sentiment is characterized by extreme consensus among investors, leading to heightened risks for certain trades [1] Group 2: Concentrated Trades - According to a monthly survey by Bank of America, the three most crowded trades as of June are: 1. Long positions in gold, with 41% of respondents identifying it as the most crowded trade 2. Long positions in the "Seven Giants" tech stocks, with 23% of respondents 3. Short positions in the U.S. dollar, with 20% of respondents [1] - If trade negotiations fail or policy direction reverses after July 9, these highly concentrated trades could experience significant volatility [1]

Core Insights - The future direction of global trade policies is highly uncertain, making it difficult to predict how overseas economic activities will respond to these policies [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan highlights the unpredictability surrounding global trade policies [1] - There is a significant concern regarding the response of international economic activities to these evolving trade policies [1]

Group 1 - The World Bank does not expect a global economic recession, but anticipates the slowest growth since 2008 due to heightened tensions and policy uncertainty [1] - Approximately 70% of economies have had their growth forecasts downgraded, with a projected global growth rate of 2.3% in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than earlier predictions [1] - Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.2% this year, with the U.S. growth forecast significantly reduced from 2.3% to 1.4%, and both the Eurozone and Japan's growth downgraded to 0.7% [1] Group 2 - Nearly 60% of developing economies are projected to experience a slowdown, with growth for emerging markets and developing economies estimated at 3.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from previous forecasts [3] - The average growth rate for developing economies is expected to decline from 6% in the first decade of the 21st century to below 4% in the third decade, correlating with a decrease in global trade growth [3][4] - Global inflation is expected to remain elevated, with an average rate of 2.9% in 2025, still above pre-pandemic levels, driven by increased tariffs and tightening labor markets [3] Group 3 - The slowdown in growth will hinder efforts in developing economies to create jobs, reduce extreme poverty, and narrow the income gap with developed economies, with per capita income growth projected at 2.9% for 2025, 1.1 percentage points lower than the 2000-2019 average [4] - The World Bank suggests that global economic recovery in 2026 and 2027 will depend significantly on changes in global trade policies [5] - If major economies can alleviate trade tensions, global growth could rebound faster than expected, with potential increases of 0.2 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 if tariffs are halved [6] Group 4 - By region, East Asia and the Pacific are expected to see growth slow to 4.5% in 2025, while Europe and Central Asia's growth will drop to 2.4% in the same year, with slight recoveries in subsequent years [6] - The Middle East and North Africa region is projected to accelerate to 2.7% in 2025, while South Asia's growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2025, stabilizing at 6.2% in 2026 and 2027 [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. job market shows resilience despite increasing uncertainty in global trade policies, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 2,000 to 227,000, the lowest in four weeks [1] - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits has increased to 1.9 million, indicating some long-term unemployed individuals still rely on these benefits [1] - Overall, the decline in initial jobless claims reflects relative stability in hiring and employee allocation by U.S. companies, maintaining a certain level of labor demand despite trade tensions [1] Group 2 - Not all experts are optimistic about the future economic outlook, as St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem noted that tariffs may continue to suppress economic activity, potentially putting pressure on the labor market [3] - Major companies like Nike and Amazon have announced layoffs, aligning with the trend of cost-cutting and workforce reduction in response to economic uncertainty [3] - The four-week moving average of unemployment claims has risen to 231,500, the highest level since October of the previous year, indicating potential long-term weakness in the job market [5] Group 3 - Some states, particularly Michigan and Virginia, have seen significant declines in initial jobless claims, suggesting regional variations in labor market conditions [5] - Despite current employment data indicating that the labor market has not entered a recession, there are notable risks from global trade policies and economic factors that could exert greater pressure on the U.S. job market in the future [5] - The ability of the U.S. job market to maintain its current resilience in the face of increasing economic uncertainty remains challenging in the coming months [5]

Group 1 - The Bank of Thailand indicates that global trade policy has increased downward risks to the economy [1] - There is a noted decrease in the number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q1 sales were $191 million, slightly lower sequentially, primarily due to foreign exchange rate changes and seasonality in the portable electronics market [9][24] - Gross margin for Q1 was 29.9%, a decrease of 220 basis points from the previous quarter, attributed to utilization headwinds and unfavorable product mix [26] - Adjusted EPS decreased to $0.27 from $0.46 in Q4, reflecting lower gross margin [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advanced Electronic Solutions (AES) revenue increased by 2% to $104 million, driven by higher ADAS and aerospace and defense sales, partially offset by lower EVHEV revenue [25] - Elastomeric Materials Solutions (EMS) revenue decreased by approximately 4% to $83 million due to lower portable electronics, EVHEV, and aerospace and defense sales [25] - Sales in the ADAS and industrial markets increased, while EVHEV sales declined in both AES and EMS business units [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a meaningful increase in opportunities with Chinese OEMs in the ceramic opportunity pipeline [11] - Portable electronics sales declined sequentially due to normal seasonality [16] - The company expects Q2 sales to range between $190 million and $205 million, indicating a 4% increase from Q1 [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing commercial and operational objectives, securing new design wins, and improving operational efficiency [33] - A local for local strategy is being implemented to mitigate tariff impacts, with plans to manage inventories and source materials from other countries [18][19] - The company is targeting synergistic bolt-on M&A opportunities that are EPS accretive and exceed return thresholds [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating current market challenges due to a strong balance sheet and global manufacturing footprint [8] - There is uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on sales in the second half of the year, but management is pursuing mitigation strategies [20][19] - Customer conversations have been constructive, with a focus on collaboration to address tariff-related challenges [47][48] Other Important Information - The company expects to achieve net savings of $25 million in 2025, with a run rate savings of $32 million [22] - Cash at the end of Q1 was $176 million, an increase of $16 million from Q4 [28] - The company plans to reduce CapEx intensity, expecting to spend between $30 million to $40 million for the full year [29][82] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much of the $25 million cost savings is in the Q2 guidance? - Most of the savings in Q2 are associated with the reduction force and will see benefits of about $3 million in the second half [38][39] Question: Do you expect Q3 to be your strongest quarter again this year? - Expectations for Q3 depend on the ramp-up of portable electronics and inventory issues in the power module market [40][41] Question: What is the tone of customer conversations regarding tariffs? - Customers are feeling resilient and are open to working together to mitigate potential tariff impacts [46][47] Question: Can you provide more details on the ceramic opportunity pipeline in China? - The company is making good progress with its facility in China and has several design wins in the pipeline [52][53] Question: What are your expectations for free cash flow this year? - The company expanded its cash balance in Q1, indicating resilience in liquidity and a strong balance sheet [78][79] Question: How is the capital intensity of the two main segments characterized? - Investments have been balanced between both segments, with ongoing maintenance and optimization efforts [88][89]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.1% as it awaits the outcome of the upcoming elections and assesses the economic impact of global trade disruptions caused by the U.S. [1][4] Group 1: Economic Indicators - February data shows a reduction of over 50,000 jobs in Australia, while inflation has returned to the target range of 2-3%, prompting the RBA to seek more evidence before considering further rate cuts [4] - The market anticipates nearly an 80% probability of a rate cut in May, but full pricing is expected to wait until July [4] - Inflation decline is raising real interest rates in Australia, creating additional resistance at a time when economic support is needed [4] Group 2: Political Context - The Australian Labor Party government recently announced a budget including tax cuts and welfare measures, coinciding with the announcement of elections, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures due to competitive spending plans from both parties [7] - The upcoming elections are expected to result in a hung parliament, requiring the ruling party to negotiate with smaller parties or independents for a majority [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The RBA's upcoming meeting will be the first under its new structure, with a newly formed nine-member committee [4] - Economists suggest that the RBA will adopt a "hawkish" pause stance, with expectations that the RBA may counter market predictions of a 70 basis point rate cut by the end of the year [7] - The RBA is set to release its semi-annual financial stability assessment report, and the Governor will participate in a public speaking event shortly thereafter [7]