根据WTO的监测数据，在为期7个月的审查期间，受新关税及其他类似措施影响的全球商品贸易额估计为27327亿美元。 世贸组织（WTO）最新监测数据显示，2024年10月至2025年5月期间，新关税的急剧上升及其覆盖的全球贸易份额增加，导致全球贸易格局变得动荡不安且 难以预测。 与此同时，尽管面临贸易政策不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势和地区冲突的背景，报告仍观察到各方在寻求通过谈判解决贸易争端方面正加紧合作。 今年4月以来，美国对全球贸易伙伴加征所谓"对等关税"，目前各方也在推进有关谈判，希望在7月9日所谓"对等关税"90天暂停期结束前能够达成贸易协 议。 具体而言，根据WTO的监测数据，在为期7个月的审查期间，受新关税及其他类似措施影响的全球商品贸易额估计为27327亿美元，这是上一份报告（2024 年底发布）所涵盖的12个月期间8876亿美元的三倍多。 同时，这一数额也是自2009年WTO秘书处开始监测贸易政策发展以来，单个报告期内此类新措施覆盖的贸易额最高水平。 WTO总干事伊维拉称："这份报告反应了全球贸易环境中出现的扰乱，关税水平出现了显著上升。六个月前，约12.5%的世界商品进口受到自2009年以来累 计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is currently in a state of stagnation, awaiting the direction of global trade policies after July 9, which poses risks for concentrated asset classes if investors misjudge the situation [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming trade policy changes, with a significant emphasis on the potential impact of the U.S. tariff suspension period ending [1] - The current market sentiment is characterized by extreme consensus among investors, leading to heightened risks for certain trades [1] Group 2: Concentrated Trades - According to a monthly survey by Bank of America, the three most crowded trades as of June are: 1. Long positions in gold, with 41% of respondents identifying it as the most crowded trade 2. Long positions in the "Seven Giants" tech stocks, with 23% of respondents 3. Short positions in the U.S. dollar, with 20% of respondents [1] - If trade negotiations fail or policy direction reverses after July 9, these highly concentrated trades could experience significant volatility [1]

日本央行：全球贸易政策的未来走向极不确定，海外经济活动将如何应对这些政策仍难以预料。 ...

世行表示，预计不会出现全球经济衰退。 世行集团首席经济学家兼主管发展经济学高级副行长英德米特·吉尔表示："发展中经济体的增速三十年 来不断下降，从21世纪第一个十年的平均6%降到第二个十年的均速5%，再降到第三个十年的4%以下。 这与全球贸易的增长轨迹相吻合，全球贸易增速从21世纪第一个十年的平均5%降到第二个十年的4.5% 左右，到第三个十年的3%以下。投资增速也出现放慢，但债务却节节攀升，已达到创纪录的水平。" 世行称，关税增加和劳动力市场收紧也对全球通胀造成上行压力，预计2025年全球通胀率平均为 2.9%，仍高于疫情前的水平。 世行表示，增速放慢将阻碍发展中经济体促进就业创造、减少极端贫困和缩小与发达经济体人均收入差 距的努力。预计2025年发展中经济体的人均收入增长为2.9%，比2000年至2019年期间的平均水平低1.1 个百分点。 全球贸易政策的变化 当地时间10日，世界银行（下称"世行"）发布最新一期《全球经济展望》报告称，紧张局势加剧和政策 不确定性将推动今年全球经济增长创下2008年以来最慢速度。 世行称，这导致近70%经济体的增速预测下调，预计2025年全球增速将放慢至2.3%，比年初的 ...

尽管美国就业数据有所改善，但并非所有人对未来的经济形势持乐观态度。圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长Alberto Musalem在近期的讲话中指出，关税可能会 继续抑制经济活动，进而对劳动力市场造成压力。他提到，随着关税政策的持续推进，美国经济增长可能放缓，最终可能导致更多企业减少用工或裁员。 这一观点与一些大企业近期的裁员决策相符。例如，耐克和亚马逊等知名企业已宣布裁员计划，部分失业还与某些获得资助的学校和企业的资金缩减有关， 包括哥伦比亚大学等教育机构也在进行裁员。这些裁员行动反映出美国企业在应对不确定的经济环境时，选择削减成本和精简人员。 在分析失业救济数据时，四周移动均值的上升至二十三点一五万人，这也是自去年十月以来的最高水平。这一变化表明，尽管单月数据看似有所回落，但长 期趋势仍可能显示出一定的疲软迹象。此外，未经季节性调整的数据也表明，美国部分州的首次申领失业救济人数出现了下降，尤其是密歇根州和弗吉尼亚 州的降幅较为显著。 整体而言，尽管目前美国的就业数据表明劳动力市场尚未陷入衰退，且在一定程度上保持健康，但仍存在不容忽视的风险。全球贸易 政策、关税问题以及其他经济因素，可能会在未来对美国就业市场造成更大 ...

泰国央行：全球贸易政策带来的下行风险增加，外国游客数量减少。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q1 sales were $191 million, slightly lower sequentially, primarily due to foreign exchange rate changes and seasonality in the portable electronics market [9][24] - Gross margin for Q1 was 29.9%, a decrease of 220 basis points from the previous quarter, attributed to utilization headwinds and unfavorable product mix [26] - Adjusted EPS decreased to $0.27 from $0.46 in Q4, reflecting lower gross margin [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advanced Electronic Solutions (AES) revenue increased by 2% to $104 million, driven by higher ADAS and aerospace and defense sales, partially offset by lower EVHEV revenue [25] - Elastomeric Materials Solutions (EMS) revenue decreased by approximately 4% to $83 million due to lower portable electronics, EVHEV, and aerospace and defense sales [25] - Sales in the ADAS and industrial markets increased, while EVHEV sales declined in both AES and EMS business units [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a meaningful increase in opportunities with Chinese OEMs in the ceramic opportunity pipeline [11] - Portable electronics sales declined sequentially due to normal seasonality [16] - The company expects Q2 sales to range between $190 million and $205 million, indicating a 4% increase from Q1 [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing commercial and operational objectives, securing new design wins, and improving operational efficiency [33] - A local for local strategy is being implemented to mitigate tariff impacts, with plans to manage inventories and source materials from other countries [18][19] - The company is targeting synergistic bolt-on M&A opportunities that are EPS accretive and exceed return thresholds [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating current market challenges due to a strong balance sheet and global manufacturing footprint [8] - There is uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on sales in the second half of the year, but management is pursuing mitigation strategies [20][19] - Customer conversations have been constructive, with a focus on collaboration to address tariff-related challenges [47][48] Other Important Information - The company expects to achieve net savings of $25 million in 2025, with a run rate savings of $32 million [22] - Cash at the end of Q1 was $176 million, an increase of $16 million from Q4 [28] - The company plans to reduce CapEx intensity, expecting to spend between $30 million to $40 million for the full year [29][82] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much of the $25 million cost savings is in the Q2 guidance? - Most of the savings in Q2 are associated with the reduction force and will see benefits of about $3 million in the second half [38][39] Question: Do you expect Q3 to be your strongest quarter again this year? - Expectations for Q3 depend on the ramp-up of portable electronics and inventory issues in the power module market [40][41] Question: What is the tone of customer conversations regarding tariffs? - Customers are feeling resilient and are open to working together to mitigate potential tariff impacts [46][47] Question: Can you provide more details on the ceramic opportunity pipeline in China? - The company is making good progress with its facility in China and has several design wins in the pipeline [52][53] Question: What are your expectations for free cash flow this year? - The company expanded its cash balance in Q1, indicating resilience in liquidity and a strong balance sheet [78][79] Question: How is the capital intensity of the two main segments characterized? - Investments have been balanced between both segments, with ongoing maintenance and optimization efforts [88][89]