近日，随着全球宏观经济格局重塑与主要央行货币政策转向，华尔街各大银行及金融机构近期集体抛出 重磅预判。 2026年，持续数年强势的美元或将迎来走弱拐点。 这一预测不仅牵动全球投资者的神经，更可能引发全球资本流动、资产配置的连锁反应，成为明年金融 市场最值得关注的核心趋势之一。 分析人士普遍认为，美元的"黄金强势期"已近尾声。 过去数年，美元凭借多重优势稳居全球货币"王座". 但当前全球金融流动结构正悄然生变，越来越多的信号显示，市场环境正逐渐对美元不利。 美联储货币政策的转向，被视作美元走弱的核心导火索。 为遏制高通胀，美联储此前开启了漫长的紧缩政策周期，激进加息让美元资产收益率飙升，吸引全球资 本涌入。 美国自身的财政与贸易状况，也在给美元"添堵"。 巨额的联邦预算赤字和高企的公共债务，早已让投资者忧心忡忡，对美国财政的长期可持续性产生质 疑。 与此同时，持续的经常账户赤字，意味着美国严重依赖外国资本流入来维持运转。 一旦美元资产收益率恶化，全球市场出现更优质的替代投资机会，这些支撑美国经济的外国资本，很可 能会大幅减少流入。 曾经的"避险光环"消退，也将削弱美元的支撑力。更值得关注的是，全球金融体系正经历 ...

Core Insights - The total amount of U.S. Treasury securities held by foreign investors reached a record high of $9.1277 trillion in June 2025, marking a month-over-month increase of $80.2 billion, or 1.11%, and a year-over-year increase of $828.4 billion, or nearly 10% [1][4]. Group 1: Changes in Major Holders - Japan, the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, increased its holdings by $12.6 billion to $1.1476 trillion in June, continuing its trend since 2025, closely linked to its yen exchange rate policy [3][4]. - The UK saw a significant month-over-month increase of $48.7 billion, bringing its total holdings to $858.1 billion, with a year-over-year increase of $111.6 billion [3][4]. - China’s holdings slightly increased by $0.1 billion to $756.4 billion, marking its first increase after three months of reductions, but it remains down $23.8 billion year-over-year [4][5]. Group 2: Capital Flow Dynamics - The increase in holdings by the UK, Cayman Islands, and Belgium reflects a surge of short-term speculative capital, particularly from international hedge funds betting on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - Belgium's holdings surged by 36.3% year-over-year to $433.4 billion, indicating that many central banks may be using Belgian accounts to hold U.S. Treasuries [5][6]. - Offshore financial centers like the Cayman Islands, Canada, and Singapore also saw significant increases in their U.S. Treasury holdings, with Cayman Islands up 35.7% to $442.7 billion [6][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The shift in U.S. Treasury holdings indicates a transition from official state capital to private capital, suggesting a potential reconfiguration of the global financial system [5][9]. - Countries like Japan and the UK are increasing their holdings not only for economic reasons but also to maintain geopolitical alliances, with Japan supporting the dollar's dominance and the UK reinforcing its status as a global financial center [8][10]. - Emerging markets, including China, India, and Brazil, are collectively reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings, indicating a diversification of their foreign exchange reserves away from dollar assets [9][10].

Group 1: International Monetary System - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multipolar structure, which can enhance the resilience of the system and maintain global economic stability [2][3] - Discussions on reforming the monetary system focus on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and exploring the use of a supranational currency, such as the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [2][3] - SDR is seen as a potential solution to the inherent issues of a single sovereign currency, offering greater stability and the ability to better fulfill global public goods functions [3] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment System - The cross-border payment system is crucial for international trade and financial stability, but traditional systems face challenges such as inefficiency and high costs [4][5] - There is a growing trend towards diversification in the cross-border payment system, with more countries using local currencies for settlements and new payment systems emerging [4] - Emerging technologies like blockchain and distributed ledger technology are reshaping the payment landscape, enabling faster and more efficient cross-border transactions [5] Group 3: Global Financial Stability System - The global financial stability system has evolved post-2008 financial crisis, but it faces new challenges such as fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight of emerging financial sectors [6][7] - There is a need for stronger international cooperation to prevent regulatory arbitrage and enhance the stability of the financial system [6] - Strengthening the IMF as a core institution for global financial safety is essential for crisis prevention and resolution [7] Group 4: Governance of International Financial Organizations - Calls for reform in international financial organizations are increasing, as current governance structures do not reflect the economic realities of emerging markets and developing countries [8] - Adjusting the voting rights and quotas in organizations like the IMF is crucial for enhancing the representation and voice of these countries [8] - The legitimacy and effectiveness of international financial organizations depend on their ability to adapt to the changing global economic landscape [8]

Core Insights - The upcoming Token2049 summit in Dubai will feature a notable fireside chat between Sun Yuchen, founder of TRON, and Eric Trump, highlighting the connection between TRON and prominent business families in the crypto space [1][3] - The discussion will focus on blockchain technology, the future of crypto assets, and the transformation of the global financial system, symbolizing the integration of blockchain with traditional business [3][4] - Sun Yuchen's investment of over $75 million in the WLFI project, supported by the Trump family, positions him as a significant player in the crypto investment landscape [3] Group 1 - TRON has surpassed 300 million global users and maintains a leading daily transaction volume, showcasing its strong position in the blockchain industry [4] - The submission of the TRX ETF application to the SEC is seen as a major milestone for TRON's integration into traditional financial markets, potentially unlocking $70 billion in new capital for the crypto market [5] - The Token2049 event is expected to attract thousands of industry leaders and will feature discussions on the intersection of Web3, AI, and blockchain, further enhancing TRON's visibility [5] Group 2 - Sun Yuchen emphasizes that blockchain is not just a technological revolution but a catalyst for reshaping global finance and business landscapes [4] - The collaboration between TRON and the Trump family’s crypto project adds an element of intrigue and potential for future partnerships in the crypto space [3] - The participation of industry giants at Token2049, including Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, underscores the event's significance in the blockchain ecosystem [5]