黄金市场的地位演变与战略机遇 — 2026 年黄金年报 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 宏观小组 研究员: 杨璐 从业资格号：F3071017 投资咨询号：Z0021280 初审：张莎 从业资格号：F03088817 投资咨询号：Z0019577 复审：赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 摘要与核心结论 2025 年，黄金市场在多重结构性因素共振下走出了历史性的上涨行情,经历 了一场深刻的"范式转换"。全年国际金价屡创历史新高，累计涨幅已超过 70%， 累计逾 50 次刷新历史纪录，成为年度表现最亮眼的核心资产类别。这轮行情超 越了传统的"通胀-利率"短期交易框架，其本质是全球宏观格局演变在资产价 格上的映射。尽管美联储如期开启降息周期，但通胀中枢的抬升使得实际利率并 未大幅下行，然而金价依然创出历史新高。这一背离现象揭示了市场深层逻辑的 变迁：黄金正在从一种"抗通胀工具"回归其"超主权货币"的本质。过去十年 主导金价的"实际利率负相关"逻辑在 2025 年被显著弱化，取而代之的是"主 权信用风险溢价"与"全球货币体系碎片化"的双重驱动。驱动逻辑已从周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price-driving logic of gold is shifting from being solely a "safe-haven asset" to a "multi-attribute game" perspective, reflecting a more complex role in the market [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite a slight decline in gold prices, capital is not fleeing the market in panic, with over $4.3 billion net inflow into international spot gold on October 24 [5][7]. - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, saw its holdings increase by 28 tons to 1,046.93 tons, indicating ongoing interest despite price fluctuations [6][10]. - The recent geopolitical easing has reduced short-term demand for gold as a safe haven, while its interest rate attributes are becoming more pronounced [10][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI data released on October 24 showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 3%, which was below market expectations, typically supporting rate cut expectations [2][8]. - Analysts suggest that the market's focus is shifting from "what policies will be implemented" to "what these policies mean," indicating a potential transition in gold's role from a hedge against uncertainty to a bet on future rate cuts [11][12]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical comparisons indicate that similar scenarios have occurred before, such as before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 and during the initial phase of quantitative easing in 2008, where gold's safe-haven attributes diminished initially but later transitioned to a monetary attribute [10][11]. - The upcoming fourth quarter of 2025 may see gold prices experiencing a significant adjustment, similar to 2008, but the underlying factors differ, with current market dynamics reflecting a more strategic positioning rather than a crisis mode [15][16]. - The interplay of key economic data, geopolitical tensions, and technical support levels will determine gold's price trajectory in the near future, with $4,000 per ounce being a critical support level [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is facing structural issues, including rising debt levels, declining liquidity, and increasing volatility, which are undermining the credibility of the international monetary system. The U.S. political landscape complicates the resolution of these risks, leading to a search for systemic solutions globally, particularly from countries like China [2][4][5]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and International Monetary System - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, exceeding 123% of GDP, with interest payments projected at $468 billion for the first five months of 2025, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, constituting 18% of fiscal revenue [4][9]. - The weakening of the U.S. Treasury's risk-free status and the declining dollar index are evident as the U.S. continues to face rising budget deficits and a downgraded sovereign credit rating [4][5]. - The shift towards gold as a reserve asset is notable, with its share in global official reserves nearing 20% by the end of 2024, indicating a return to commodity credit from sovereign credit [4][9]. Group 2: Fragmentation of International Governance - U.S. protectionist policies are fragmenting the post-World War II order, leading to a trust crisis in international governance and complicating global cooperation [5][6]. - The U.S. has not reduced its fiscal deficits but has instead expanded them through recent legislation, which may further erode the dollar's credibility [5][6]. - Countries are increasingly diversifying their reserves and engaging in bilateral currency settlements to reduce reliance on the dollar due to the fragmentation of international governance [5][6]. Group 3: Digital Technology and Monetary System Reconstruction - Digital technologies, including blockchain, are creating new credit support for the international monetary system, potentially alleviating the "Triffin dilemma" [6][9]. - The efficiency of international payment systems is expected to improve significantly due to advancements in digital technology, enhancing liquidity supply without increasing the base money supply [6][9]. Group 4: Emergence of a Multi-Currency System - The global economic landscape is shifting towards a multi-currency system, with regional trade integration enhancing the transactional role of non-dollar currencies [7][8]. - The share of the dollar in global reserves is projected to drop to 57.8% by 2024, the lowest in nearly 30 years, as other currencies and gold gain prominence [9][10]. - The evolution towards a multi-polar currency system is seen as a means to enhance financial stability and provide emerging economies with more options for reserve asset diversification [10][11]. Group 5: Recommendations for China - China is advised to deepen its financial market openness and promote the internationalization of the renminbi, including enhancing the renminbi bond market and diversifying foreign exchange reserves [14][25]. - The establishment of a more diversified and digitalized cross-border payment system is recommended, leveraging stablecoins and digital currencies to improve efficiency [15][26]. - Strengthening regional currency alliances and enhancing cooperation in monetary policy are suggested to support the renminbi's role in the international monetary system [16][27].

Group 1: International Monetary System - The international monetary system has evolved over time, with the dominance of currencies reflecting changes in global power dynamics and national competitiveness [3] - The Euro, established in 1999, currently holds about 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, while the Renminbi has risen to become the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally [4] - Future discussions on the international monetary system may focus on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and exploring the potential of a super-sovereign currency like the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [4][5] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment System - The cross-border payment system is crucial for global financial stability and is evolving towards greater efficiency, security, and inclusivity [6] - There is a trend towards diversification in cross-border payments, with more countries using local currencies for settlements, thus reducing the dominance of a single sovereign currency [6][7] - Emerging technologies such as blockchain and digital currencies are reshaping the traditional payment system, enhancing efficiency while posing regulatory challenges [7] Group 3: Global Financial Stability - The global financial stability framework faces new challenges, including fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight of emerging financial sectors like digital assets [8] - There is a need for stronger international cooperation to address regulatory gaps and enhance the stability of non-bank financial intermediaries, which have seen significant growth in recent years [8] - Strengthening the IMF's role as a core institution in the global financial safety net is essential for crisis prevention and resolution [9] Group 4: Governance of International Financial Organizations - Calls for reform in international financial organizations like the IMF and World Bank are necessary to reflect the actual economic standing of emerging markets and developing countries [10][11] - The governance structure of these organizations should be updated to enhance the representation and voice of developing nations, promoting true multilateralism [11] - Strengthening the economic oversight functions of international financial organizations is crucial for assessing global risks and guiding countries towards supporting economic globalization [11]

Group 1: International Monetary System - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multipolar structure, which can enhance the resilience of the system and maintain global economic stability [3][4] - There is a growing discussion on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and promoting a few strong sovereign currencies to create a competitive mechanism [3][4] - The Special Drawing Rights (SDR) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is highlighted as a potential super-sovereign currency that could better fulfill global public goods functions [4][5] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment System - The cross-border payment system is crucial for international trade and financial stability, but traditional systems face challenges such as inefficiency and high costs [7][8] - There is a trend towards diversification in the cross-border payment system, with more countries using local currencies for settlements and new payment systems emerging [7][8] - Emerging technologies like blockchain are reshaping the payment landscape, enabling faster and more efficient cross-border transactions [8] Group 3: Global Financial Stability System - The global financial stability system has seen reforms post-2008 financial crisis, but new challenges have emerged, including fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight of digital finance [9][10] - There is a need for stronger international cooperation to prevent regulatory arbitrage and ensure consistent global financial regulations [10] - The role of non-bank intermediaries has increased, necessitating enhanced regulatory measures to address their stability and transparency issues [10] Group 4: Governance of International Financial Organizations - There is an urgent call for reform in international financial organizations to better reflect the economic positions of emerging markets and developing countries [11][12] - The current voting rights and shares in organizations like the IMF do not align with the actual economic status of member countries, necessitating adjustments [12] - Enhancing the governance efficiency and representation of emerging economies is essential for maintaining true multilateralism [12]

Group 1: International Monetary System - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multipolar structure, which can enhance the resilience of the system and maintain global economic stability [2][3] - Discussions on reforming the monetary system focus on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and exploring the use of a supranational currency, such as the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [2][3] - SDR is seen as a potential solution to the inherent issues of a single sovereign currency, offering greater stability and the ability to better fulfill global public goods functions [3] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment System - The cross-border payment system is crucial for international trade and financial stability, but traditional systems face challenges such as inefficiency and high costs [4][5] - There is a growing trend towards diversification in the cross-border payment system, with more countries using local currencies for settlements and new payment systems emerging [4] - Emerging technologies like blockchain and distributed ledger technology are reshaping the payment landscape, enabling faster and more efficient cross-border transactions [5] Group 3: Global Financial Stability System - The global financial stability system has evolved post-2008 financial crisis, but it faces new challenges such as fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight of emerging financial sectors [6][7] - There is a need for stronger international cooperation to prevent regulatory arbitrage and enhance the stability of the financial system [6] - Strengthening the IMF as a core institution for global financial safety is essential for crisis prevention and resolution [7] Group 4: Governance of International Financial Organizations - Calls for reform in international financial organizations are increasing, as current governance structures do not reflect the economic realities of emerging markets and developing countries [8] - Adjusting the voting rights and quotas in organizations like the IMF is crucial for enhancing the representation and voice of these countries [8] - The legitimacy and effectiveness of international financial organizations depend on their ability to adapt to the changing global economic landscape [8]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 has significant implications for the relationship between the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, highlighting that while the dollar is not a sovereign currency, US Treasuries represent sovereign debt [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Credit Rating Downgrade - The downgrade by Moody's has led to a substantial increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasuries, which is currently around 4.55% [1]. - The downgrade raises questions about the practical significance of the US sovereign credit rating and the relationship between the dollar and US Treasuries [3]. Group 2: Understanding Sovereign Debt - The concept of sovereign debt is compared to corporate debt, where companies face pressure to repay interest and principal, leading to a need for cash flow management [5]. - Sovereign nations have more flexibility in managing debt, introducing the idea of sovereign currency and its relationship to debt restructuring [6]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Dynamics - The divergence in views between Jerome Powell and Donald Trump is highlighted, with Powell aiming to maintain higher financing rates to avoid debt restructuring, while Trump appears to favor a significant depreciation of the dollar [7][8]. - The Federal Reserve's credibility is tied to its adherence to established rules, which complicates the relationship between the US government and US Treasuries [9][10]. Group 4: The Nature of the Dollar - The dollar is characterized as a super-sovereign currency, generated by a set of rules rather than solely by the US government [12][13]. - The flexibility of the dollar's rules contrasts with the rigid nature of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which are based on fixed generation rules [14]. Group 5: Future Challenges for the Dollar and Treasuries - The Federal Reserve's recent adjustments to its policy framework reflect the need to adapt to changing economic conditions and geopolitical complexities [15][16]. - The downgrade of the US credit rating has transformed US Treasuries into a form of credit debt, indicating that rising yields are not unexpected [16][17].