Employment Data - In August, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000 and the previous value of 79,000[3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%, matching expectations but up from 4.2%[3] - The Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for June and July, resulting in a total downward adjustment of 21,000 jobs[3] Sector Performance - The goods-producing sector saw a job loss of 25,000, continuing a downward trend, while the service sector added 63,000 jobs, down from 85,000 in the previous month[4] - Notably, the manufacturing sector lost 12,000 jobs, and government employment decreased by 16,000[11] Market Implications - Following the employment data release, the market anticipates a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and October, with some speculation about a potential 50 basis points cut in September[3] - The short-term U.S. Treasury yields have declined rapidly, while long-term yields have remained relatively stable[5] Economic Outlook - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, but the unemployment rate has not increased significantly, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may not act too quickly on rate cuts[4] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming CPI data on September 11, which will provide further insights into inflation trends[5] Risks - There are risks associated with the U.S. economy potentially declining more than expected, as well as uncertainties surrounding monetary and fiscal policies[51]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual event held by the Kansas Federal Reserve in August, where central bank leaders announce adjustments or signals regarding monetary policy frameworks, particularly the Federal Reserve Chairman [2][10][11] - In recent years, Powell has made significant announcements at this event, including the average inflation targeting in 2020, reaffirming the temporary inflation view in 2021, and discussing the transition to a rate-cutting cycle in 2024 [2][11] Group 2 - Powell's speech this year emphasized the increasing risks of employment downturn, indicating that while the labor market appears balanced, it is a "strange balance" due to significant supply-demand slowdown, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment [3][13] - The likelihood of tariff price shocks evolving into sustained inflation seems unlikely, as current impacts are expected to be temporary and not lead to a "wage-price spiral" due to a less tight labor market [3][14] - Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September, with the probability of a rate cut rising from 72% to 81.3% following his speech, indicating a shift in the Fed's assessment of inflation and employment risks [4][15][16] Group 3 - The adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy framework reflects changes in the macroeconomic environment, moving from an average inflation targeting to a flexible inflation targeting approach, allowing for more adaptability in response to economic conditions [5][21][24] - The removal of the "effective lower bound" statement indicates a recognition that the neutral interest rate may now be higher than in the 2010s, suggesting a shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [5][21] - The Fed's focus will now be on achieving a 2% inflation target in the medium term while retaining flexibility to respond to short-term economic developments [5][24]

Group 1: Jackson Hole Conference Insights - The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual event held by the Kansas Federal Reserve, where central bank leaders discuss monetary policy adjustments[2] - Powell's recent speech indicated a shift towards a dovish stance, suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September due to increasing employment risks[3][11] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - Employment risks are rising, with a peculiar balance in the labor market due to significant supply-demand slowdown, potentially leading to increased layoffs and unemployment[3][12] - The likelihood of tariffs causing sustained inflation is deemed low, with current price impacts expected to be temporary[3][12] Group 3: Interest Rate Projections - Following Powell's speech, the probability of a September rate cut increased from 72% to 81.3%, with the average expected cuts for the year rising from 1.91 to 2.18 times[4][14] - The current policy rate appears slightly ahead of estimated levels, indicating that any rate cuts may be more preventive rather than recession-driven[4][14] Group 4: Market Reactions and Framework Adjustments - In a preventive rate cut scenario, U.S. stock indices typically rise, supported by resilient earnings, while long-term U.S. Treasury yields are likely to decline[5][19] - The Fed is shifting from an average inflation targeting framework to a flexible inflation targeting approach, allowing for more adaptability in response to economic conditions[6][20][25]

Core Viewpoint - The report from招商宏观 indicates that as long as the inflation gap remains higher than the employment gap, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to lower interest rates [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Powell expresses significant concern over inflation risks, suggesting that the current inflation is above target levels [1] - The Federal Reserve's forward guidance in June highlighted concerns about stagflation, which continued into July [1] Group 2: Employment Situation - Employment is currently at target levels, which contrasts with the elevated inflation, leading to a need for a moderately restrictive policy [1] - The focus on inflation over employment suggests a prioritization of controlling price levels in the current economic environment [1] Group 3: Policy Implications - The necessity for Powell to confirm that tariff-induced inflation impacts are fully reflected in the current economic assessments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the era of ultra-low interest rates and aggressive monetary policies is over, as the U.S. enters a "new normal" of high inflation [1][3] - Powell acknowledges a fundamental shift in the global economic landscape since 2020, necessitating a reevaluation of the previous monetary policy framework [3][8] - The previous framework relied on a "flexible average inflation target" to manage short-term inflation spikes, but this approach is now deemed inadequate [6][19] Group 2 - Powell's statement indicates that the zero lower bound on interest rates is no longer a baseline scenario, marking a significant policy shift [8][9] - The actual interest rates adjusted for inflation are rising, signaling deeper economic changes rather than mere cyclical fluctuations [9][11] - The previous reliance on globalization for price stability is diminishing, as geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have emerged [11][15] Group 3 - The Fed's tools and methodologies must be rethought in light of the changing economic environment, with a reduced emphasis on traditional employment metrics [15][17] - The "flexible average inflation target" is under review, as it has struggled to cope with the pressures of the pandemic and geopolitical risks [19][21] - Powell emphasizes the importance of maintaining a 2% inflation target as a guiding principle, despite market speculation about potential adjustments [21][27] Group 4 - The central bank's role is evolving to address more frequent and persistent supply shocks, which cannot be managed solely through interest rate adjustments [21][23] - The communication strategy of the Fed is also being reassessed to better convey the complexities of the current economic landscape [25][27] - The global economy may experience a bifurcated state, with Western economies facing high inflation and low growth, while production-oriented economies may struggle with overcapacity and low inflation [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is signaling a significant adjustment to its monetary policy framework in response to structural changes in the post-pandemic economy, focusing on a revised approach to "average inflation targeting" and "employment gap" concepts [1][2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed is reassessing the policy framework established in 2020, particularly the definitions of "average inflation targeting" and "employment gap," to adapt to new economic conditions such as frequent supply chain shocks and rising real interest rates [1][2] - The new framework may downplay the "employment gap" concept, shifting focus to the structural health of the labor market rather than directly linking low unemployment to inflation risks [1][2] - The Fed is considering allowing temporary tolerance for inflation above 2% to balance employment and price stability goals in response to supply shocks [1][2] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Powell indicated that the U.S. may enter a new era of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, leading to increased inflation volatility, with tariffs from the previous administration contributing to a rise in core PCE inflation to 2.2% [2] - The current federal funds rate is maintained in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, significantly higher than the near-zero levels of 2020, indicating a reduced capacity for rate cuts during economic downturns [2] - Powell emphasized the need for mechanisms to address potential risks, such as forward guidance and asset purchase tools, despite the assumption of a zero lower bound no longer being fundamental [2] Group 3: Policy Communication and Market Reactions - The Fed plans to improve its policy communication tools, particularly in conveying uncertainties and risks, learning from past misjudgments regarding inflation during the pandemic [3] - Powell's emphasis on "wait and see" reflects a cautious approach to decision-making, contrasting with pressures for rapid rate cuts from the previous administration [3] - Following Powell's remarks, global capital markets reacted with declines in tech stocks, rising bond yields, and increased volatility in the dollar index, indicating concerns over a normalization of high interest rates [4] Group 4: Investment Trends and Opportunities - Investors should focus on three key trends: a restructuring of asset allocation logic, increased policy risk due to tensions between the Fed and the White House, and investment opportunities related to supply chain localization and technological autonomy [4] - The shift from "crisis management" to "normal management" by the Fed aims to find a new balance between inflation volatility and economic resilience, with the outcome dependent on supply chain recovery and geopolitical developments [4] - The upcoming framework adjustments in August-September are anticipated to be pivotal in reshaping global asset pricing logic for 2025 [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, remaining roughly flat at $9,600/ton; SHFE copper futures gained 0.13% to CNY 78,490/ton. US inflation data was lower than expected, and the Fed's flexible attitude towards inflation was seen as a signal for interest rate cuts. Domestically, attention should be paid to the performance of the financial market. LME copper inventories decreased by 925 tons, while COMEX inventories increased by 1,381 tons. SMM's Thursday statistics showed that the national mainstream copper inventories increased by 0.89 million tons to 13.20 million tons, ending the continuous destocking trend. With copper prices rising and the expectation of the peak season turning to the off - season, downstream procurement was cautious, and terminal demand orders might gradually slow down. Although the macro - expectation continued to improve, the domestic copper downstream demand showed some weakness. The upward movement of copper prices might be hindered. However, the better - than - expected progress in Sino - US trade negotiations was expected to continue to boost risk appetite, and copper prices were expected to be briefly boosted, with the upward range still seen at CNY 78,000 - 80,000/ton. When copper prices approached the upper limit of the range, it might bring selling hedging opportunities for the mid - and upstream [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly with oscillations. Overnight, AO2509 closed at CNY 2,985/ton, up 0.17%, and the open interest increased by 13,002 lots to 338,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum trended weakly with oscillations. Overnight, AL2506 closed at CNY 20,220/ton, down 0.07%, and the open interest increased by 1,633 lots to 203,000 lots. The SMM alumina price rebounded slightly to CNY 2,936/ton. The spot premium of aluminum ingots widened to CNY 60/ton. There were new maintenance activities in Shanxi and Guangxi's alumina. The main contract shifted to the 09 contract, and the market was trading the expectation of ore production restrictions during the rainy season in Guinea. Aluminum ingot arrivals were low, and downstream restocking occurred after price cuts, so aluminum ingots continued to be destocked slightly. The alleviation of the Sino - US tariff situation improved the macro - sentiment. However, the decline in photovoltaic subsidies and the weakening of new export orders, along with the pressure of cost reduction, meant that the short - term strong and long - term weak pattern of aluminum prices continued. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption situation and subsequent tariff negotiation dynamics [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.03% to $15,805/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.16% to CNY 125,230/ton. LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons, while domestic SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 205 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium decreased by CNY 50/ton. Nickel ore prices were still strong, with premiums rising in both the Philippines and Indonesia. In the stainless - steel sector, there was a slight reduction in the supply of the 300 - series, and the weekly inventory decreased slightly. In the new - energy sector, the supply of raw materials recovered, the MHP price declined, and the spot profit of nickel sulfate slightly improved, but the demand for ternary precursors in May decreased slightly month - on - month. Domestically, primary nickel inventories decreased slightly on a weekly basis, and overseas destocking was obvious. The production in May was expected to decrease slightly. In the short term, the macro - sentiment improved, and the Philippine nickel - ore event attracted market attention again, so nickel ore was relatively strong, and it was not advisable to be overly bearish. However, the nickel - iron transaction price continued to decline, and if domestic primary nickel inventories continued to accumulate, the pressure on nickel prices would gradually become prominent, and the overall trend was still oscillatory [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The macro - situation in the US showed lower - than - expected inflation data, which was regarded as a signal for interest rate cuts. Domestically, the financial market performance was a focus. Inventory changes were mixed, and downstream demand was cautious. The upward movement of copper prices might face resistance, but short - term boosts were possible due to trade negotiation progress [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices were strong, while Shanghai aluminum was weak. There were new maintenance activities, and the market was trading the Guinea ore - restriction expectation. Aluminum ingots were destocked slightly. The short - term strong and long - term weak pattern continued due to various factors [2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rose slightly overnight. Inventory changes were different in different regions. Nickel ore was strong, but nickel - iron prices declined. The new - energy sector had mixed signals. The overall trend was oscillatory in the short term [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On May 15, 2025, compared with May 14, 2025, the price of flat - copper decreased by CNY 180/ton, and the premium increased by CNY 40/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by CNY 100/ton, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by CNY 63/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 925 tons, while COMEX inventories increased by 1,382 tons. The total domestic + bonded area inventories increased by 0.3 million tons [5]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by CNY 60/ton. The prices of lead concentrates in different regions increased by CNY 50/ton. The LME lead inventories remained unchanged, while the SHFE lead inventories increased by 2,718 tons [5]. - **Aluminum**: On May 15, 2025, compared with May 14, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased, the Nanhai - Wuxi spread decreased, and the spot premium increased. The price of alumina FOB increased by $11/ton, and the price of Shandong alumina increased by CNY 20/ton. LME aluminum inventories decreased by 2,025 tons, and SHFE aluminum warrants increased by 1,397 tons [6]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by CNY 250/ton, and the spreads of Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel against Wuxi increased by CNY 1,250/ton. The price of nickel ore remained stable. LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons, and SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 205 tons [6]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.0%, and the LME S3 price remained unchanged. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by CNY 60/ton. The domestic and imported zinc premiums decreased by CNY 80/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by $1.75/ton. The SHFE zinc inventories increased by 793 tons, and the social inventories increased by 0.08 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.3%, and the LME S3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SMM spot price increased by CNY 1,100/ton. The prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by CNY 700/ton. The SHFE tin inventories decreased by 190 tons [7]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: There are charts showing the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: There are charts showing the SHFE near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][18]. - **3.3 LME Inventories**: There are charts showing the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventories**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **3.5 Social Inventories**: There are charts showing the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **3.6 Smelting Profits**: There are charts showing the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profits, nickel - iron smelting costs, zinc smelting profits, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margins from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous metal research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, a medium - level gold investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial - products futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity - research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by multiple media. His team has won many awards [47]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous metal researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on hedging accounting and disclosure, and provides high - quality services to listed companies [47]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous metal researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. He focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, various sectors in the market are influenced by multiple factors including economic policies, international trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, in the financial market, the Fed's potential policy framework changes affect the performance of the US dollar index and US stock index futures; in the commodity market, supply - demand relationships in industries such as steel, copper, and agricultural products determine price trends [14][22][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The release of the urban renewal action plan clarifies the path for domestic economic support, and fixed - asset investment will maintain a high proportion in the economy. Attention should be paid to the marginal change of PPI to determine the elasticity of corporate profit margins. It is recommended to allocate large, medium, and small - cap stock indices evenly [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated sharply, first falling then rising and finally closing higher. With the easing of tariffs and geopolitical military conflicts, funds are flowing out of gold. The short - term gold price is still in the adjustment process, not fully stabilized, and the increased volatility makes trading more difficult. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of price decline and wait before bottom - fishing [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is preparing to modify its policy framework, which means a significant change in future policy thinking. The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to expect the US dollar index to oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's change in the monetary framework may increase its tolerance for inflation, and high inflation and high interest rates may exist for a longer period. Economic data shows that inflation and consumption data continue to weaken, and market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased. The short - term market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index fluctuates strongly, but it is recommended to treat it as range - bound due to potential negotiation uncertainties [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Market concerns about the US biodiesel policy have led to a significant decline in the prices of US soybean oil and US soybean futures. Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts have been raised. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, US biodiesel policy, and weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased this week, but the marginal weakness in the manufacturing terminal has not been completely reversed. Steel prices are in a stage of rebound, but lack the momentum for a sharp rise. It is recommended to hold a light position in the short term, wait for the market to rebound, and pay attention to changes in the export end [31][32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry has declined, and inventory has decreased slightly. The factors affecting the CS - C futures spread are complex, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating weakly. With the improvement of the macro - environment, coking coal may stabilize with the overall black metal sector in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not changed, and attention should be paid to demand changes [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises have slightly increased, while the raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises has declined. It is recommended to hold the previously entered 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads, and pay attention to the results of import auctions [36][37]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Foran Mining is promoting the McIlvenna Bay copper - zinc project. US economic data is weakening marginally, and the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising. Domestic short - term inventory is still being depleted. Copper prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to conduct short - term band operations and wait and see for arbitrage [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Considering the delayed resumption of production at the southwest base of leading enterprises and the planned production cuts and overhauls of some enterprises, the polysilicon production plan for May has been revised down. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and focus on arbitrage strategies [44]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - There are rumors that northern large - scale factories plan to resume production, and some silicon factories in Sichuan are gradually resuming production. Demand is still weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [45][46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market risk appetite has been repaired, but the mine price has not stabilized, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price rebounds. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased significantly. Under the intertwined situation of multiple factors, there is no clear unilateral logic for lead prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc has increased. The short - term spot market is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for previous short positions, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rebounds for those not yet entered [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to band operations within the range [59]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and both refinery and port inventories are accumulating. The price has insufficient upward driving force, and attention should be paid to changes in Shandong spot prices and factory warehouse behaviors [61]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - It is recommended to continue to be bearish on NYMEX natural gas [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - After a short - term rapid rise, PTA prices may start to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended that long positions consider taking profit and waiting and seeing [69][70]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The spot price of caustic soda is still strong in the short term, and the futures price is also expected to be strong [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the pulp futures price to stabilize and rebound [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the PVC price to stabilize and rebound [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Due to supply pressure, the processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low [78]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Short - term maintenance of soda ash plants may support the spot and futures prices, but the medium - term view is to short on price rebounds [79]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Under the situation of weak reality and the absence of favorable policies, the glass futures price will remain in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to changes in real - estate policies [81].