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中航期货橡胶月度报告-20250829
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 11:21
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In August, the three major rubber futures contracts showed a slightly stronger trend with limited gains due to minor improvements in the rubber's fundamentals and a relatively warm macro - environment. The cost of rubber is supported by weather, and the inventory has a slight structural improvement. The downstream tire demand has resilience, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the price will fluctuate within a range, with external macro - disturbances likely to widen the price fluctuation range [6][27] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the main contracts of natural rubber (RU), 20 - numbered rubber (NR), and synthetic rubber (BR) had monthly increases of 3.12%, 3.04%, and 3.66% respectively, with corresponding increases in positions of 56,608 lots, 5,873 lots, and 19,561 lots. The domestic stock market rose unilaterally in August, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation increased. The cost of rubber was supported by weather, the monthly rubber inventory decreased slightly, and the downstream tire demand had resilience [6] 2. Data Analysis - **Raw material prices**: As of August 28, the glue price in Thailand was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, the cup - glue price was 50.7 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 14,300 yuan/ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,200 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in major producing areas were firm, and the cost support would remain in September due to weather affecting the peak - season output [8] - **Imports**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 47.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 360.05 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82%. Thailand's exports decreased significantly, while Vietnam and Laos had obvious increases. Vietnam became the second - largest source country [10] - **Inventory**: As of August 22, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, general trade spot inventory, and domestic third - party inventory all decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the month but were higher than the same period last year. The overall inventory had a slight structural improvement but still faced greater pressure than last year [13] - **Raw material and production cost**: In August, the domestic butadiene price fluctuated within a narrow range. The theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber enterprises was 240.4286 yuan/ton, and the loss range fluctuated within a narrow range [15] - **Butadiene rubber inventory**: As of August 29, the total inventory of butadiene rubber sample production and trading enterprises was 3.172 tons, with a small change from the beginning of the month but an increase of 7,370 tons compared to last year. The inventory removal was under pressure due to increased supply [18] - **Tire exports**: In July 2025, the export volume of China's truck and bus tires reached 45.44 tons, breaking the monthly record for the third time this year. The export volume of passenger car tires was 32.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. However, the export pressure is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [19] - **Tire inventory**: As of the end of August, the inventory turnover days of all - steel tires were about 39 days, 4 days less than last year, with good inventory removal. The inventory turnover days of semi - steel tires were about 46 days, 4 days more than last year, with slow inventory removal [21] - **Tire capacity utilization**: As of August 29, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a 5.63% increase from the beginning of the month and a 5.1% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, with little change from the beginning of the month but an 8.73% decrease year - on - year [23] 3. Future Outlook - The macro - environment has limited impact on the commodity market, and the actual improvement of terminal demand needs further observation. The rubber cost is supported by weather, the inventory has a slight structural improvement, and the downstream tire demand may be boosted in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. However, whether the supply - demand relationship can be substantially improved depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory removal speed [27]
地缘情绪升温原油上行,但能化表现与原油背离
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 12:46
Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the energy and chemical sector, analyzing the market conditions of various products including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others [1][2][3] - Geopolitical tensions have led to an increase in crude oil prices, but the performance of energy and chemical products has deviated from crude oil [1][3] - The mid - term and short - term structures and trading strategies for each product are provided [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - Geopolitical factors, especially the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, are key factors affecting the short - term crude oil market, while the mid - term supply surplus pressure from OPEC+ remains [3][4] - For most products, the mid - term outlook is bearish due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and raw material cost changes [2][4][7] Group 4: Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: The mid - term supply surplus is strong due to OPEC+ production increase, but short - term prices are boosted by geopolitical and macro factors. Focus on the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [4] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Support at 485. Strategy: Wait for the short - term support to break [4] Benzene (Styrene) - Logic: Cost - side pressure from high port inventories of pure benzene and expected supply increase; supply is high and demand is weak. Mid - term bearish [7] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Look for short - selling opportunities after the 7335 support breaks on the 15 - minute cycle [7] Rubber - Logic: Supply increase from the main producing areas and weak terminal demand. Mid - term bearish [10] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Short - selling opportunity at the close of the first K - line in the afternoon [10] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Supply pressure from butadiene production increase and weak demand due to tire inventory. Mid - term bearish [14] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11470 [14] PX - Logic: Short - term supply - demand is strong due to restart of devices and upcoming maintenance. Focus on crude oil cost [18] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [18] PTA - Logic: Supply increases as maintenance devices restart, and demand is weak. Short - term no inventory pressure but the situation has weakened. Focus on crude oil [20] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 4720 [20] PP - Logic: Weak demand in the off - season and expected supply increase from new device production. Focus on crude oil cost [23] - Technical analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6980 [23] Methanol - Logic: High domestic production and import lead to inventory accumulation. Mid - term pressure is large [24] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Wait for the support at 2265 to break for short - selling [24] PVC - Logic: Weak downstream demand in the real - estate downturn and weak export. Bearish fundamentals [27] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 4850 [27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply tightens due to domestic device maintenance and reduced imports, and short - term demand is okay. Short - term support exists [32] - Technical analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. Hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4300 [32] Plastic - Logic: Short - term low production due to device maintenance, but large supply increase expected in the future. Mid - term bearish [33] - Technical analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. Wait for the support at 7085 to break for short - selling [33]
原油继续等待驱动:聚烯烃类偏弱,芳烃类偏强
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 12:39
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes multiple petrochemical products, suggesting that the polyolefin category is weak while the aromatic hydrocarbon category is strong. Overall, most products have a bearish medium - term outlook, with varying short - term trends. The report provides logical analyses and technical tracking for each product, along with corresponding trading strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Product (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Overseas macro - path is unclear, with potential macro - risks. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase in the medium - term, and there is a risk of US demand falling short of expectations in the short - term. There is a high possibility of a new Iran nuclear deal. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Consider today's price increase as a rebound on reduced positions, with short - term pressure at 475. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [1][2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Low inventory, but supply is expected to increase due to early resumption of previously shut - down plants. Cost support is weak, and downstream demand has limited growth. - **Technical Tracking**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today's price decline on increased positions. Short - term pressure at 7345. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - profit reference moved down to 7345 [5]. (3) PX - **Logic**: PX plants are in maintenance, with low operating rates and good short - term fundamentals. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil prices. - **Technical Tracking**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term support refers to the low on May 13. - **Strategy**: Wait for a short - selling opportunity after the support is broken [9]. (4) PTA - **Logic**: Supply - side plant operating rates are increasing, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. Demand - side polyester operating rates are strong. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil prices. - **Technical Tracking**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term support refers to the low on May 13. - **Strategy**: Wait for a short - selling opportunity after the support is broken [13]. (5) PP - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates are stable, but new production capacity is expected to come on stream in June. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and downstream demand support is insufficient. - **Technical Tracking**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation with significant position increases, indicating strong downward momentum. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure and stop - profit referring to the high on May 21 [17]. (6) Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates have decreased slightly due to plant maintenance, but overseas operating rates are increasing, and imports are expected to rise in June. Demand is basically flat year - on - year, and the market is under pressure. - **Technical Tracking**: Downward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation, with price increases on reduced positions and decreases on increased positions. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - profit reference at the high on May 22 [18]. (7) Rubber - **Logic**: Demand is weak, with high inventories of terminal automobiles and tires. There is no expectation of export demand recovery, and the EU has launched an anti - dumping investigation. Domestic inventories are accumulating against the season. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level and short - term oscillatory structure on the hourly level. Today's price decline on increased positions. The upper pressure of the oscillation range refers to the high on April 8. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the upper edge of the oscillation range on the hourly cycle [21]. (8) PVC - **Logic**: Real - estate data in April is still poor, and downstream demand is difficult to improve. Plant maintenance is ending, and supply is expected to increase. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term pressure at 4980. - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a reversal pattern on the hourly cycle [24]. (9) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates have decreased slightly, and arrivals are increasing. Demand - side polyester operating rates remain high. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level and short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term support at 4315. - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss at 4455 [25]. (10) Plastic - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term pressure at 7120. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - profit moved down to 7120 [27]. (11) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: In June, plants are expected to resume production after maintenance, leading to a potential increase in butadiene supply. Demand is weak due to high inventories of terminal automobiles and tires. - **Technical Tracking**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Today's long - negative candlestick. The upper pressure refers to 12120. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29].
原油重点关注今日美伊会谈;聚烯烃类继续关注做空机会-20250523
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 12:04
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Focus on the US-Iran talks today for crude oil, and continue to look for shorting opportunities in polyolefin varieties [1] - Most of the analyzed commodities have a bearish or cautious outlook due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost pressures, and geopolitical issues Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Logic**: OPEC+ discussing large - scale production increase in July and potential new Iran nuclear deal create supply - demand concerns; medium - term supply surplus exists [2][3] - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term oscillation; hold short positions on the hourly cycle [2][3] Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Cost pressure from falling crude oil, increased supply expected due to ethylene plant maintenance recovery and new capacity in Q2 [6] - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term decline; hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 7465 [6] PX - **Logic**: Low profit, ongoing plant maintenance, increased downstream PTA demand; cost logic dominates after crude oil decline [7][10] - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term rise; wait for shorting opportunities after breaking the support [10] PTA - **Logic**: Both supply and demand increase, but cost logic dominates after crude oil decline [11][13] - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term rise; wait for shorting opportunities after breaking the support [13] PP - **Logic**: Limited impact from ethylene plant failure, narrowing export profit, future supply and cost pressures [17] - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term decline; hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure and take - profit at the May 21 high [17] Methanol - **Logic**: Slightly lower domestic start - up, low traditional demand, potential port inventory build - up [18] - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level decline; hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with take - profit at the May 22 high [18] Rubber - **Logic**: Short - term positive sentiment digested, high tire inventory, low demand, potential supply increase [21] - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term oscillation; short at the upper end of the range on the hourly cycle [21] PVC - **Logic**: Expected increase in start - up after maintenance, weak terminal real - estate demand [25] - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term decline; look for shorting opportunities on the hourly cycle [25] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Improved demand from polyester, but future supply pressure from new ethylene capacity [27] - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term rise; hold 15 - minute short positions, stop - loss at 4455 [27] Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term decline; transfer 15 - minute short positions to the hourly cycle [28][30] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: Limited impact from ethylene plant failure, future supply increase of butadiene putting pressure on cost [32] - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term decline, hourly - level short - term decline; transfer 15 - minute short positions to the hourly cycle after breaking support [32]
广发期货日评-20250514
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 07:40
Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, offering specific comments and operation suggestions for different varieties based on their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [2]. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: For IF2506, the lower support of the index is stable, one can sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums; for IH2506, the index opens high and closes low with sectoral rotation. One can also buy September IM contracts on dips and sell September out - of - the - money call options with a strike price of 6400 for a covered strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: T2506 may fluctuate in the short term, with a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the capital market and economic data. Curve strategy suggests a steepening trade. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond rates are around 1.66% and 1.92%, respectively, and are expected to fluctuate in the short term waiting for a driving force [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under short - term pressure with support around $3200 (¥745), and the sold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 800 can be held. Silver prices range between $32 - 33.5 (¥8000 - 8350), and an option straddle strategy can be tried [2]. Commodities - **Shipping**: With the easing of the Sino - US trade war, the spot price of the container shipping index (EC2506 for the European line) may rise. One can consider going long on the August contract or 8 - 10, 6 - 10 calendar spreads [2]. - **Steel**: The steel spot market is stabilizing with macro - level benefits. For RB2510, unilateral operations are on hold, and focus on the long - hot - rolled - coil short - raw - material arbitrage [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The increase in blast furnace maintenance may lead to a peak and decline in hot metal production. It is expected to trade in a range of 700 - 745 [2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices are in a new round of price cuts, and coking coal is weak. One can go long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke or coking coal. The coal mine inventory is high, and there is still a possibility of price decline, with high hedging pressure in the futures market [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The short - term oil price is likely to oscillate at a high level. The main contract of SC2507 has a range of [450, 510], and for options, one can buy volatility within the range [2][3]. - **Urea**: The inventory may be depleted faster, and the short - term futures price will oscillate at a high level in the range of [1850, 1950]. One can buy options to expand volatility [2]. - **PX and PTA**: Both are driven by strong supply - demand and tariff benefits, showing a strong trend. PX9 - 1 short - term calendar spreads and PX - SC spread expansion are recommended; for PTA, short - term 9 - 1 calendar spreads are considered, and a mid - term reverse view is taken [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Palm Oil**: After a post - noon decline due to a negative MPOB report, it is expected to rebound above 8000 [2]. - **Sugar**: Based on the positive data from Brazil in late April, one can either stay on the sidelines or trade short on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: With the easing of the Sino - US trade war, attention should be paid to the resistance at 13500 [2]. - **Special Commodities**: - **Glass**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the 09 contract should be observed for a breakthrough at the 1000 - point level [2]. - **Rubber**: With the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts, the price is expected to trade in the range of 14500 - 15500, and one can try shorting at the upper end of the range [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, but the futures price is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: - **Polysilicon**: The industry fundamentals are expected to improve, and long positions or calendar spreads can be held [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The trading is intense, and the price is expected to range between 62,000 - 66,000 [2].