泰勒整理了其中的讲话要点，以及市场的最新反应！ 一起来看看。 鲍威尔"放鸽" 【导读】美联储主席鲍威尔释放信号，9月可能降息 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚全世界的投资者都在紧盯着美联储主席鲍威尔的在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔年度央行会议上的讲话，市场希望从中寻找利 率路径的线索。 鲍威尔为9月16日-17日会议降息留了余地，他表示："基线展望以及风险平衡的变化可能需要我们调整政策立场。" 他还说："失业率和其他劳动力市场指标的稳定性，使我们在考虑政策调整时能够谨慎行事。" 在谈及劳动力市场时，鲍威尔指出，"虽然表面上处于平衡，但这是一种奇特的平衡，源于劳动力供给和需求的双双显著放缓。这种异常情 况表明就业面临的下行风险正在上升。" 他表示，一个"合理的基本情境"是关税带来一次性的物价水平上升，但这些影响需要时间才能完全传导到经济中。 鲍威尔称："短期内，通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行——这是一个具有挑战性的局面。" 鲍威尔还表示，美联储已经采用了新的政策框架，删除了"央行追求通胀在一段时间内平均达到2%"的表述，以及"基于就业未达最大化水 平来作出决策"的表述。 市场反应 鲍威尔讲话之后，市场的初步反 ...

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole meeting is highly anticipated, with Powell expected to focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework review rather than revealing the September interest rate decision [1][3] - Market expectations for a rate cut have driven stock prices up, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors, but any contrary signals from Powell could lead to market volatility [3][4] - Powell faces significant political pressure from the Trump administration, which has criticized his reluctance to cut rates and is reportedly considering potential replacements [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Funds futures market indicates a probability of over 92% for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for at least one more cut this year [4] - Recent stock price increases among major homebuilders, such as PulteGroup and Lennar, have outpaced the S&P 500 index, reflecting strong market confidence in a forthcoming rate cut [4][5] - However, this confidence has made the market vulnerable to sell-offs if Powell signals a more hawkish stance than anticipated [5] Group 3 - Economic data presents a mixed picture, with persistent inflation pressures indicated by a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the core CPI and a 0.9% rise in the PPI, the largest monthly increase in over three years [7] - Conversely, the labor market shows signs of cooling, with only 73,000 jobs added in July and significant downward revisions to previous months' data, leading to internal disagreements within the FOMC regarding rate cuts [7][6] - Powell's upcoming speech is seen as a critical moment to assert the Fed's independence and establish long-term guiding principles for monetary policy [8][9]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's periodic assessment of monetary policy strategy has become a key event influencing market sentiment amid global economic adjustments and increased financial market uncertainty [1][3] - Two main areas of focus in the upcoming assessment are the long-term goals and monetary policy strategy statement, and the communication tools used to convey policy intentions to the market and public [3][6] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is expected to downplay the "Flexible Average Inflation Target" (FAIT) policy introduced during the pandemic, shifting towards a more traditional inflation target setting [3][4] - This shift is seen as a response to criticisms that the FAIT policy delayed the Fed's response to rising inflation, which contributed to rapid inflation increases [4][5] - Analysts anticipate that the Fed will emphasize a dual focus on both employment and inflation deviations in its policy statement, enhancing flexibility and responsiveness to economic conditions [5][6] Group 2: Communication Strategy Reforms - Proposed reforms to the Fed's communication strategy include the release of alternative economic scenarios alongside corresponding monetary policy paths, which would provide valuable decision-making insights for investors [6] - Another reform involves anonymously linking individual Federal Open Market Committee members' economic and interest rate forecasts, allowing for clearer understanding of each member's policy inclinations [6] - These changes aim to improve policy transparency and reduce ambiguity in the Fed's decision-making process, potentially enabling the market to better anticipate policy shifts [6]

将就业水平目标定在与2%通胀目标一致的水平 本文作者是前纽约联储前主席比尔·杜德利（Bill Dudley） 鲍威尔绝不能让特朗普干扰这项关键改革——尽管特朗普反复威胁要撤换他，但若因此采取"敷衍了 事"的调整将铸成大错。 现行货币政策框架存在严重缺陷，修正它们既能彰显领导力，更能捍卫美联储的独立性。 由杜德利主笔的三十人集团最新报告提出六项核心改革建议： 回归对称的2%通胀目标 2020年框架评估时，美联储在长期低通胀后采用了"灵活平均通胀目标制"，即低于2%的缺口需用超额 通胀弥补，但反之不然。这一调整不仅增加了政策沟通难度，还因"中性"短期利率上升而显得不合时宜 ——随后五年通胀持续高于2%的目标。回归对称目标既能减少市场困惑，也能为零利率下限风险重现 做好准备。 美联储在2020年评审中设定的就业目标也是单方面的：它旨在最小化与最大可持续就业水平的不足—— 即不会对工资造成过大上行压力的水平。这决定了美联储将短期利率维持在接近零的水平的承诺，直到 就业达到可持续最大水平，且通胀既达到2%并预计在一段时间内保持在2%以上。结果是，即使当时经 济快速增长、劳动力市场过热、通胀已攀升至5%以上，美联储直到2 ...