能源化工日报 2026-02-26 2026/02/26 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.60 元/桶，跌幅 0.33%，报 488.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 10.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.34%，报 2943.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 41.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.18%，报 3436.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据（PLATT 口径）出炉，汽油库存累库 1.91 百万桶至 9.89 百万桶， 环比累库 23.99%；柴油库存去库 0.30 百万桶至 3.03 百万桶，环比去库 9.12%；燃料油库存去 库 0.76 百万桶至 7.63 百万桶，环比去库 9.07%；总成品油累库 0.85 百万桶至 20.55 百万桶， 环比累库 4.30%。 【策略观点】 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉增产即将超预期的预判以及 OPEC 后续的 增产恢复预期，当前油价应予以逢高止盈，并以中期布局为主要操作思路。 甲醇 马桂炎（联系人） 聚酯分析师 从业资格号：F031 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. Given the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, previous short positions should take profits, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differentials has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so short positions on rallies are recommended [8]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a hedging position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity reduction expectations, and export rush support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, positions can be gradually liquidated [21]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate is declining [24]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period of history. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil on dips after the Spring Festival [30]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high production. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of rebound [35]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 0.90 yuan/barrel, or 0.19%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 8.53 million barrels to 428.83 million barrels, a 2.03% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 10.00 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 1843 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 63 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. Bulls were optimistic due to macro, seasonal, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.94%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.42% [11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 52 yuan to 4938 yuan. The overall operating rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3%. The downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a decrease of 3.3%. Factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and social inventory was 122.7 tons (+ 2.1) [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China rose 87.5 yuan/ton to 6103 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 150 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 10.86 million tons [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6787 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6585 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a decrease of 0.27%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 37.97 million tons [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6693 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a decrease of 0.01%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 1.49 million tons to 41.58 million tons [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 62 yuan to 7202 yuan. China's PX load was 92%, an increase of 2.5%. Asian load was 83.7%, an increase of 1.3%. In early February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 17.5 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons year - on - year [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 40 yuan to 5220 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 25 yuan to 5205 yuan. The PTA load was 74.8%, a decrease of 2.8%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 232.6 million tons, an increase of 21 million tons [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan to 3723 yuan. The spot price in East China fell 13 yuan to 3639 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.8%, an increase of 0.7%. Port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 93.5 million tons [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports Group 2: Report Core Views Pure Benzene - Styrene - Short - term supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is weak, with limited price drivers, and BZ2603 may oscillate between 5300 - 5600 [1] - Short - term styrene price is supported by exports, but there is an inventory build - up expectation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited [1] Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is high in January, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken. It is expected to oscillate between 7000 - 7500 in the short term and be considered for low - buying in the medium term [2] - PTA may be affected by inventory build - up in the first quarter, with limited self - driven factors, and will follow raw material fluctuations. It is expected to oscillate between 5000 - 5200 in the short term [2] - MEG has a large inventory build - up expectation in the near term, and its price is under pressure. Strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting high - selling and low - buying spreads [2] - Short - fiber supply - demand pattern is weak, and its absolute price has limited drivers, following raw material fluctuations in the short term [2] - Bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it will follow cost fluctuations in January, with limited processing fee upside [2] Urea - Urea supply is high in the short term, and demand is weak. Without new stimuli, the price may be in a weak oscillation [3] PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement volume and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [4] - PVC supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and the market may face a decline after reaching a high [4] Polyolefins - LLDPE supply is expected to decrease marginally, and demand is in a seasonal off - season. PP supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to turn to inventory reduction in January, with short - term strength [6] Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded significantly, but the increase is limited due to the weak supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash supply increases, demand is stable, and the overall supply - demand pattern is in surplus. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [9] - Glass supply decreases, demand weakens seasonally, and the upward space of the market is limited [9] Natural Rubber - Supply in Southeast Asia increases, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The rubber price has fallen from a high, and attention should be paid to Thai raw material conditions [11] Methanol - Methanol futures fell due to certain news, and the MTO industry faces losses. The inland market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand [13] LPG - LPG prices are in a downward trend. The upstream and downstream operating rates show different trends, and inventory changes vary [17] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream prices: Brent crude oil (March) rose 3.4% to 61.99 dollars/barrel; CFR China pure benzene rose 0.3% to 674 dollars/ton [1] - Styrene - related prices: Styrene East China spot price fell 0.1% to 6890 yuan/ton; EB cash flow (non - integrated) fell 7.0% to 348 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream cash flows: Phenol cash flow fell 7.8% to - 1036 yuan/ton; EPS cash flow increased 220.0% to 60 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased 6.0% to 31.80 tons; Styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased 4.7% to 13.23 tons [1] - Operating rates: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased 2.3% to 78.7%; Styrene operating rate decreased 0.7% to 70.2% [1] Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream prices: Brent crude oil (March) rose 3.4% to 61.99 dollars/barrel; CFR China PX fell 1.6% to 886 dollars/ton [2] - Downstream product prices: POY150/48 price remained unchanged at 7911 yuan/ton; Polyester bottle - chip price fell 0.3% to 6032 yuan/ton [2] - PX - related spreads: PX - crude oil spread fell 6.2% to 433 dollars/ton; PX - naphtha spread fell 6.0% to 345 dollars/ton [2] - MEG: MEG port inventory decreased 0.7% to 73.0 tons; MEG to - port expectation increased 66.4% to 17.8 tons [2] - Operating rates: Asian PX operating rate increased 1.8% to 80.9%; PTA operating rate increased 10.3% to 78.1% [2] Urea - Futures prices: Urea 01 contract fell 0.77% to 1682 yuan/ton; 05 contract fell 0.78% to 1776 yuan/ton [3] - Spreads: 01 contract - 05 contract spread rose 1.09% to - 91 yuan/ton; UR - MA main contract spread rose 4.62% to - 475 yuan/ton [3] - Upstream raw materials: Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) fell 1.11% to 890 yuan/ton; Steam coal port (Qinhuangdao) rose 0.43% to 700 yuan/ton [3] - Spot prices: Shandong (small - particle) urea rose 0.57% to 1760 yuan/ton; Shanxi (small - particle) urea fell 0.62% to 1610 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Domestic urea daily output increased 0.55% to 20.06 tons; urea plant - in inventory increased 0.29% to 102.22 tons [3] PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and futures prices: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price remained unchanged at 2150 yuan/ton; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price fell 1.1% to 4650 yuan/ton [4] - Overseas quotes and export profits: FOB Middle - East port caustic soda price fell 1.4% to 365 dollars/ton; PVC export profit fell 118.7% to - 45.3 yuan/ton [4] - Supply: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased 0.2% to 88.7%; PVC total operating rate decreased 0.9% to 75.4% [4] - Demand: Alumina industry operating rate remained unchanged at 79.9%; Longzhong sample pipe material operating rate decreased 3.7% to 36.2% [4] - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda East China plant - in inventory decreased 2.6% to 22.1 tons; PVC total social inventory increased 0.6% to 51.4 tons [4] Polyolefins - Futures prices: L2601 closed at 6410 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; PP2605 closed at 6484 yuan/ton, down 0.03% [6] - Spreads: L15 spread fell 2.83% to - 218 yuan/ton; PP15 spread fell 12.64% to - 196 yuan/ton [6] - Spot prices: East China PP drawstring spot price remained unchanged at 6280 yuan/ton; North China LLDPE spot price rose 0.31% to 6480 yuan/ton [6] - Operating rates: PE device operating rate increased 0.52% to 83.7%; PP device operating rate decreased 1.65% to 75.5% [6] - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory increased 6.66% to 39.5 tons; PP trade - merchant inventory increased 15.52% to 20.5 tons [6] Crude Oil - Oil prices: Brent rose 3.39% to 61.99 dollars/barrel; WTI rose 3.16% to 57.76 dollars/barrel; SC fell 1.60% to 418.00 yuan/barrel [7] - Spreads: Brent M1 - M3 spread rose 37.50% to 0.77 dollars/barrel; WTI - Brent spread rose 6.55% to 4.23 dollars/barrel [7] - Refined oil prices: NYM RBOB rose 3.88% to 176.03 cents/gallon; ICE Gasoil rose 1.46% to 609.25 dollars/ton [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices: North China glass quote rose 0.99% to 1020 yuan/ton; Glass 2601 fell 0.30% to 1013 yuan/ton [9] - Soda ash prices: Northwest soda ash quote rose 2.33% to 880 yuan/ton; Soda ash 2605 fell 2.70% to 1239 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: Soda ash operating rate increased 5.93% to 84.70%; Float - glass daily melting volume decreased 0.92% to 15.01 tons [9] - Inventory: Glass factory inventory decreased 5.69% to 5551.80 tons; Soda ash factory inventory increased 4.25% to 157.25 tons [9] Natural Rubber - Spot prices: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF): Shanghai rose 0.63% to 15850 yuan/ton; Cup rubber: international market: FOB mid - price rose 1.16% to 52.30 Thai baht/kg [11] - Spreads: 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at - 70 yuan/ton; 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 60 yuan/ton [11] - Production: November Thailand rubber production fell 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons; November China rubber production increased 20.88% to 137.20 thousand tons [11] - Operating rates: Automobile tire: semi - steel tire operating rate decreased 3.46% to 65.89%; Automobile tire: full - steel tire operating rate decreased 0.22% to 58.02% [11] - Inventory: Bonded - area inventory increased 4.48% to 548344 tons; Natural rubber: factory - warehouse futures inventory: SHFE remained unchanged at 57959 tons [11] Methanol - Futures prices: MA2605 closed at 2231 yuan/ton, down 1.59%; MA59 spread fell 120.00% to - 4 yuan/ton [12] - Spreads: Taicang basis fell 600.00% to - 15 yuan/ton; MTO05 on - the - plate fell 13.33% to - 221 yuan/ton [12] - Spot prices: Inner Mongolia north - line spot price remained unchanged at 1848 yuan/ton; Henan Luoyang spot price fell 1.32% to 2058 yuan/ton [12] - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased 5.94% to 44.768 tons; Methanol port inventory increased 4.05% to 153.7 tons [13] - Operating rates: Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate increased 0.54% to 78.09%; Downstream - external - procurement MTO device operating rate decreased 0.59% to 78.88% [13] LPG - Futures prices: Main PG2602 fell 0.62% to 4199 yuan/ton; PG2603 fell 0.87% to 4103 yuan/ton [17] - Spreads: South China spot - PG02 spread rose 0.77% to 781 yuan/ton [17] - External prices: FEI forward M1 contract fell 1.85% to 503.00 dollars/ton; CP swap M1 contract fell 1.15% to 517.00 dollars/ton [17] - Inventory: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio rose 0.91% to 24.3%; LPG port inventory decreased 8.41% to 214 tons [17] - Operating rates: Upstream - major refinery operating rate remained unchanged at 75.11%; Downstream - PDH operating rate decreased 1.65% to 75.1% [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Natural Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price may rise due to commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals are weak. Consider short - selling around 15700 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is bearish, prices are in a downward trend with occasional technical rebounds. Look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3]. - Glass: The spot market is under pressure, and the 05 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom before positive drivers emerge [3]. Crude Oil Industry - International crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The supply is in excess, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel. Monitor EIA data and geopolitical developments [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: The short - term rebound space is limited. Consider short - selling EB02/03 above 6800 and narrowing the EB spread [6]. Polyolefin Industry - PP: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the 05 contract may face pressure if there are few planned maintenance in 1 - 3 months. - PE: Supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving, and short - term pressure is relieved [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The supply - demand is weak, inventory is high, and the rebound height is limited. - PVC: The spot fundamentals are weak, and it is difficult to support price increases [8]. Urea Industry - The short - term supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the futures main contract focusing on the 1700 - 1760 range [9]. LPG Industry No clear overall view provided in the given LPG - related content. Ester Industry - PX: The short - term supply - demand may weaken, with prices adjusting before the Spring Festival. Consider exiting long positions, short - selling for the aggressive, and low - buying in the medium - term. - PTA: Follow raw material fluctuations. Exit long positions, short - sell for the aggressive, and low - buy in the medium - term. - MEG: Overseas supply may shrink, but near - month inventory accumulation is expected, and price increases face resistance. - Short - fiber: Follow raw material fluctuations, and narrow the processing spread when it is high. - Bottle chips: Domestic supply is expected to increase, and compress the processing spread when it is high [13]. Methanol Industry - The port may face inventory accumulation in December, and the supply - demand balance may turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland price oscillates narrowly. Monitor inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [16]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned full - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 15200 to 15300, with a 0.66% increase. - The full - latex basis increased by 9.43% to - 480 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 50% to 15 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Consumption - Thailand's November production decreased by 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons. - China's November production increased by 23.70 thousand tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515227 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - North China glass price remained at 1010 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of glass decreased by 5.13% to 74 yuan/ton [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - Northwest soda ash price decreased by 4.21% to 910 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 3.24% to 179 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output decreased by 1.33% to 71.18 million tons [3]. Inventory - Soda ash factory inventory decreased by 4.06% to 143.85 million tons [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.57% to 60.64 dollars per barrel [4]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB decreased by 2.86% to 169.71 cents per gallon [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 3.9% to 133 dollars/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price increased by 2.4% to 6700 dollars/ton [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.4% to 13.93 million tons [6]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 6388 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. - The L15 spread decreased by 61.70% to - 76 yuan/ton [7]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 5.99% to 45.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 1.46% to 82.6% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% decreased by 0.7% to 2218.8 yuan/ton. - V2605 increased by 1.6% to 4832 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2% to 88.7%. - PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9% to 75.4% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 2.6% to 22.1 million tons [8]. Urea Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 01 contract of urea decreased by 0.48% to 1667 yuan/ton [9]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily output remained at 19.19 million tons. - Factory inventory decreased by 9.39% to 106.89 million tons [9]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract increased by 0.07% to 4238 yuan/ton. - The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.63% to 158 yuan/ton [11]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 1.69% to 24.1%. - Downstream PDH operating rate increased by 1.81% to 76.4% [11]. Ester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - CFR China PX increased by 2.0% to 918 dollars/ton [13]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price increased by 2.0% to 6570 yuan/ton [13]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.6% to 79.5% [13]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. - The MTO05盘面 increased by 13.18% to - 191 [14]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.28% to 40.397 million tons [15]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.46% to 77.99% [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, with rising domestic production and imports, and weakening demand, the pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand leads to high enterprise inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of further downward pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, with the price at a low level, low volatility, and a lack of fundamental drivers, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, and the downside space is also restricted. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, the price has rebounded as expected. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades opportunistically and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the fundamentals show a weak situation with high supply, weak demand, and poor export prospects. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has fallen. The price may bottom out, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [18][19]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. With high supply pressure and weak demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [21][22]. - For PX, the load remains high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there is a high expectation of inventory reduction in November. However, the processing fee expansion is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [26][28]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry fundamentals show high supply, increasing imports, and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [29][30]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.37%, at 460.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil in related refined oil futures rose 1.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%, at 2728.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil fell 8.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%, at 3269.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.20 million barrels to 421.17 million barrels, a 1.25% increase; SPR replenished 0.50 million barrels to 409.60 million barrels, a 0.12% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 4.73 million barrels to 206.01 million barrels, a 2.24% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 111.55 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 21.89 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.28 million barrels to 41.70 million barrels, a 0.67% increase [2]. - **Strategy Views**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The Taicang price decreased by 2, Inner Mongolia increased by 15, and the price in southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 16 yuan, at 2125 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 6, at - 101 [3]. - **Strategy Views**: With rising domestic production and imports, and weakening demand, the pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand leads to high enterprise inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of further downward pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan remained stable, while that in Hubei increased by 10. Most regions remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 11 yuan, at 1644 yuan, with a basis of - 74. The 1 - 5 spread was - 1, at - 83 [4]. - **Strategy Views**: With the price at a low level, low volatility, and a lack of fundamental drivers, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, and the downside space is also restricted. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: As of November 6, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, 0.21 percentage points higher than last week and 5.35 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.45%, 0.24 percentage points lower than last week and 4.37 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.056 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton increase, a 1.6% increase. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 658,000 tons, a 3% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 398,000 tons, a 0.4% decrease. The total spot inventory in the Qingdao area increased by 12,200 tons to 436,300 tons. In terms of spot prices, Thai standard mixed rubber was 145,350 (+200) yuan, STR20 was reported at 18,200 (+20) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1805 (+20) dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6850 (+100) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 98,700 (+100) yuan [10][11]. - **Strategy Views**: The price has rebounded as expected. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades opportunistically and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 8 yuan, at 4630 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (-20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 110 (-12) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (-2) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 870 (+70) yuan/ton, and ethylene was 740 (0) dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.3%, a 1.7% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 77.4%, a 3.1% increase; the ethylene method was 80.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 50.5%, a 0.7% increase. The factory inventory was 338,000 tons (+4000), and the social inventory was 1.03 million tons (-5000) [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The fundamentals show a weak situation with high supply, weak demand, and poor export prospects. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 5330 yuan/ton, a 68 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5398 yuan/ton, a 68 - yuan/ton decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 68 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan expansion. The spot price of styrene was 6350 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6300 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan decrease; the basis was 50 yuan/ton, a 79 - yuan weakening. The BZN spread was 89.5 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease; the non - integrated EB device profit was - 497.7 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase; the EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan reduction. The upstream operating rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 179,300 tons, a 13,700 - ton decrease. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.09%, a 0.68% decrease; the PS operating rate was 52.00%, a 1.80% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 62.24%, a 0.27% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 72.10%, a 0.70% decrease [15]. - **Strategy Views**: The prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6805 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton decrease, and the spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease, with a basis of 70 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 83.3%, a 0.73% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, a 74,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 50,100 tons, a 300 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 45%, a 0.37% decrease. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan expansion [18]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has fallen. The price may bottom out, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [18][19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6471 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decrease, and the spot price was 6555 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decrease, with a basis of 84 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 78.55%, a 0.07% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, a 4800 - ton increase, the trader inventory was 228,600 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 64,600 tons, a 700 - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 52.61%, a 0.24% increase. The LL - PP spread was 334 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan expansion [21]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has declined. With high supply pressure and weak demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [21][22]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract increased by 170 yuan, at 6820 yuan, and PX CFR increased by 10 dollars, at 826 dollars. After conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, the basis was - 73 yuan (-92), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 4 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 87%, a 1.1% increase; the Asian load was 78.1%, a 0.4% decrease. In terms of devices, Wushi Petrochemical in China restarted, Fujia Dahua was restarting, overseas, a 540,000 - ton device of Thailand's PTTG and Saudi Arabia's Satorp were under maintenance, and Taiwan's FCFC device was restarting. The PTA load was 76.4%, a 1.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Yisheng Dahua's load was restored, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan Energy's old device and Ineos were under maintenance, and Weilian Chemical reduced its load [24]. - **Strategy Views**: Currently, the PX load remains high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract increased by 88 yuan, at 4688 yuan, and the East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton, at 4540 yuan, with a basis of - 80 yuan (-3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 76.4%, a 1.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Yisheng Dahua's load was restored, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan Energy's old device and Ineos were under maintenance, and Weilian Chemical reduced its load. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Jinqiao's 200,000 - ton slicing was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. As of October 31, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.207 million tons, a 6000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 17 yuan to 114 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 24 yuan to 214 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there is a high expectation of inventory reduction in November. However, the processing fee expansion is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [26][28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract increased by 10 yuan, at 3924 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan, at 3972 yuan, with a basis of 74 yuan (-3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan (+11). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 72.4%, a 3.8% decrease, among which the synthetic gas method was 71.9%, an 11.5% decrease; the ethylene - based load was 72.7%, a 0.7% increase. In terms of synthetic gas devices, Yulin Chemical and Tianye reduced their loads, Sinochem and Yankuang were under maintenance, and Jianyuan and Tongliao Jinmei were restarting. In terms of petrochemicals, there were few device changes. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Jinqiao's 200,000 - ton slicing was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. The import arrival forecast was 189,000 tons, and the East China departure on November 5 was 17,000 tons. The port inventory was 562,000 tons, a 39,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 837 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 649 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 628 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 740 dollars, and the price

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, port prices are falling rapidly, the supply - demand pattern is "supply increasing and demand weakening", inventory is difficult to deplete. With the unfulfilled expectation of overseas winter production cuts, there is a risk of further decline in the future. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, supply and demand have both increased, the market is in a relatively loose pattern, and there is limited upward momentum. Given the low absolute price, the downside space is also limited. It's recommended to wait and see [9]. - For rubber, the price shows signs of stabilization. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is suggested, and partial position building for the hedge strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is strong and demand is weak, export expectations are weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It's advisable to look for shorting opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is declining, and the price may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, the global monetary policy is loose, the inventory is declining from a high level, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [21]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure is high, demand is in a seasonal rebound, and the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the market [24]. - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and the PXN spread is expected to be under pressure in November. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. - For PTA, supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there is a chance of processing fee repair. It's recommended to pay attention to this opportunity [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is in the process of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to short on rallies [31]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 8.50 yuan/barrel, a 1.85% increase, at 467.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 7.99 million barrels, a 7.80% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 16.94 million barrels, a 5.04% increase; overall refined oil inventory decreased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.54 million barrels, a 0.66% decline [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 57 yuan, Inner Mongolia by 15 yuan, and southern Shandong by 20 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 37 yuan to 2143 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 43 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 16 yuan to - 96 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Port prices are falling rapidly, the supply - demand pattern is "supply increasing and demand weakening", inventory is difficult to deplete. With the unfulfilled expectation of overseas winter production cuts, there is a risk of further decline in the future. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei decreased. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan to 1623 yuan, with a basis of - 73 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 8 yuan, reporting - 86 yuan [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply and demand have both increased, the market is in a relatively loose pattern, and there is limited upward momentum. Given the low absolute price, the downside space is also limited. It's recommended to wait and see [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is near the starting point and shows signs of stabilization. Bulls expect an increase due to seasonal and demand factors, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of October 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week but down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a 1% decline. Spot prices of some rubber products decreased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price shows signs of stabilization. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is suggested, and partial position building for the hedge strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 21 yuan to 4680 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4570 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 110 yuan, a 19 - yuan decrease; the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 yuan, a 10 - yuan decrease. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.3%, a 1.7% increase; the demand - side downstream operating rate was 50.5%, a 0.7% increase. Factory inventory was 33.8 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons; social inventory was 103 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is strong and demand is weak, export expectations are weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It's advisable to look for shorting opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [14][15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene decreased, and the basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene increased, while the futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% decline; the three - S weighted operating rate on the demand side was 42.09%, a 0.68% decline. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.95 tons to 19.30 tons [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is declining, and the price may stop falling temporarily [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6888 yuan/ton, a 11 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 7010 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 122 yuan, a 11 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decline. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons to 51.46 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons to 5.00 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a 0.83% increase [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global monetary policy is loose, the inventory is declining from a high level, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6576 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 64 yuan, a 14 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons to 63.85 tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons to 22.00 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 6.68 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply pressure is high, demand is in a seasonal rebound, and the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the market [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 22 yuan to 6640 yuan. PX CFR decreased by 1 dollar to 819 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 87%, a 1.1% increase; the Asian load was 78.1%, a 0.4% decrease. Some domestic and overseas devices had restarts or maintenance. PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decrease. In October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 42.6 tons, a 4.7 - ton increase year - on - year. In late September, inventory was 402.6 tons, a 10.8 - ton increase month - on - month. The PXN was 240 dollars, a 4 - dollar decrease; the naphtha crack spread was 107 dollars, a 4 - dollar increase [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and the PXN spread is expected to be under pressure in November. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 10 yuan to 4596 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 4535 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease; the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease. The PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decrease; the downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. On October 31, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 220.7 tons, a 0.6 - ton increase. The spot processing fee increased by 32 yuan to 147 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 5 yuan to 240 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there is a chance of processing fee repair. It's recommended to pay attention to this opportunity [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 48 yuan to 3970 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 38 yuan to 4068 yuan. The basis was 76 yuan, a 5 - yuan decrease; the 1 - 5 spread was - 79 yuan, a 7 - yuan decrease. The ethylene glycol load was 76.2%, a 2.9% increase; the downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. The import arrival forecast was 19.8 tons, and port inventory increased by 3.9 tons to 56.2 tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 723 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 516 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 628 yuan [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is in the process of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to short on rallies [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently suggest short - term waiting and observing to see if OPEC's exports decline when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, with high port inventories, increasing supply, and weakening demand, the high - inventory issue may lead to further price drops. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Regarding urea, the supply and demand are both increasing, but the market is in a relatively loose pattern. There is limited upward momentum, and the price downside is also restricted. Pay attention to price rebounds due to short - term demand improvements [6]. - For rubber, the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [12][13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices are falling, but the high - level port inventory of styrene is being reduced, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. - For polyethylene, the price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted, and the overall inventory is being reduced [18][19]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus suppresses the market [20][22]. - For PX, with high load and low downstream PTA load, the inventory is difficult to reduce continuously. It is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - For PTA, there is a short - term inventory build - up, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see due to potential negative feedback risks [25][26]. - For ethylene glycol, there is a high supply, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Data**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 0.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.07% decline, at 458.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 40.00 yuan/ton, a 1.43% decline, at 2751.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 20.00 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase, at 3255.00 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.86 million barrels to 415.97 million barrels, a 1.62% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 409.10 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 5.94 million barrels to 210.74 million barrels, a 2.74% decline; diesel inventories decreased by 3.36 million barrels to 112.19 million barrels, a 2.91% decline; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.13 million barrels to 21.80 million barrels, a 0.58% decline; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.51 million barrels to 41.42 million barrels, a 3.52% decline [7]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, prices in Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 49 yuan, reporting 2208 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 18. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 12, reporting - 76 [2]. - **Strategy**: The port price is falling rapidly, and the inventory is high and difficult to reduce. Supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Data**: The spot price in Shandong remained flat, that in Henan remained stable, and that in Hubei decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 17 yuan, reporting 1627 yuan, with a basis of - 57. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, reporting - 78 [5]. - **Strategy**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the downstream demand is following up. The market is in a relatively loose pattern. Pay attention to price rebounds due to short - term demand improvements [6]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The stock index and industrial products declined, and the rubber price also followed suit. The long and short sides have different views. As of October 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week and down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a 1% decline; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 63.9 tons, a 0.3% decline; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 40 tons, a 2% decline; the inventory in Qingdao was 42.41 (- 0.34) tons [10]. - **Strategy**: The rubber price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 9 yuan, reporting 4766 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4660 (+ 40) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 106 (+ 49) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 284 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decline; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 74.4%, a 0.3% decline; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 81.6%, a 0.4% increase. The downstream operating rate was 49.9%, a 1.3% increase. The factory inventory was 33.4 tons (- 2.7), and the social inventory was 103.5 tons (+ 0.1) [11]. - **Strategy**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export outlook is poor in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [12][13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene are both falling. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The high - level port inventory of styrene is being reduced, and the price may stop falling temporarily [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: The main - contract closing price was 6968 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan decline. The spot price was 6990 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decline. The basis was 22 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decline. The production enterprise inventory was 51.46 tons, a 1.49 - ton decline; the trader inventory was 5.00 tons, a 0.04 - ton decline. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, an 0.83% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase [18]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted, and the overall inventory is being reduced [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: The main - contract closing price was 6651 yuan/ton, a 34 - yuan decline. The spot price was 6630 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decline. The basis was - 21 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 63.85 tons, a 4.02 - ton decline; the trader inventory was 22.00 tons, a 1.86 - ton decline; the port inventory was 6.68 tons, a 0.11 - ton decline. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase. The LL - PP spread was 317 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease [20][21]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus suppresses the market [22]. PX - **Market Data**: The PX01 contract decreased by 64 yuan, reporting 6588 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 1 dollar, reporting 817 dollars. The basis was 85 yuan (+ 58), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 4 yuan (+ 14). The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decline. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, a 10.8 - ton increase from the previous month [24]. - **Strategy**: With high load and low downstream PTA load, the inventory is difficult to reduce continuously. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. PTA - **Market Data**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 66 yuan, reporting 4570 yuan. The East China spot price remained flat, reporting 4535 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan (+ 5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (- 8). The PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decline. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 24 was 220.1 tons, a 2.5 - ton increase. The spot processing fee increased by 4 yuan to 157 yuan, and the futures - market processing fee decreased by 24 yuan to 248 yuan [25]. - **Strategy**: There is a short - term inventory build - up, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see due to potential negative feedback risks [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 contract decreased by 68 yuan, reporting 4032 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 5 yuan, reporting 4147 yuan. The basis was 78 yuan (+ 5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (- 8). The supply - side load was 76.2%, a 2.9% increase. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. The import arrival forecast was 19.8 tons, and the East China departure on October 29 was 1 ton. The port inventory was 52.3 tons, a 5.6 - ton decline [27]. - **Strategy**: There is a high supply, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [28].