芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/03 | POY 1 | 石脑油 | PX CFR | PTA内盘现 | 石脑油裂 | PTA加 | PTA平衡 | PTA负 | 仓单+有 | 日期 | 原油 | 50D/4 | PX加工差 | 聚酯毛利 | TA基差 产销 | 日本 | 台湾 | 货 | 解价差 | 工差 | 负荷 | 荷 | 效预报 | 8F | 2025/0 | 68.1 | 590 | 854 | 4835 | 6885 | 91.57 | 264.0 | 189 | 76 | 79.3 | 70.4 | 30940 | -15 | 0.30 | 8/27 | 2025/0 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - PTA: With an increase in unexpected TA maintenance, a continuous rise in polyester operation, and relatively healthy inventory levels offering room for further load - increase, while the supply of raw material PX gradually returns, the near - term supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to continue improving. Attention should be paid to opportunities for expanding processing margins at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [3]. - MEG: The EG operation rate has risen to a relatively high level. Due to low short - term arrivals, port inventory is expected to remain low. The current situation is favorable with decent margins. However, in the far - month, there are expectations of inventory accumulation due to the resumption of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants. The valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, so it should be viewed as a wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [4]. - Polyester Short Fiber: As the de - stocking speed of polyester yarn products has accelerated, the demand for restocking has emerged. Although the short - fiber operation rate remains high, there is no significant increase. With the continuation of de - stocking, attention should be paid to opportunities for expanding processing margins at low prices [4]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber: The national explicit inventory remains stable at a non - high absolute level but shows no seasonal de - stocking. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Market Changes**: From August 21 - 27, 2025, the PTA spot price and related indicators fluctuated. The PTA spot transaction had an average daily transaction basis of 2509(+20). The PTA device saw the new 160 - million - ton line of Sanfangxiang's new device start production, and Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton device undergo maintenance [3]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Near - end TA maintenance increased, leading to a significant decline in operation. Polyester load continued to rise, inventory decreased month - on - month, the basis strengthened slightly, and spot processing margins improved. The domestic PX operation rate increased slightly, overseas plants restarted, and the operation rate rebounded significantly. PXN strengthened month - on - month, disproportionation benefits weakened, and isomerization benefits reached a high level. The trans - shipment volume of aromatics between the US and Asia was low [3]. MEG - **Price and Market Changes**: From August 21 - 27, 2025, prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, MEG external and internal markets, and other related prices changed slightly. The MEG spot transaction had a basis of around +58 against 01. The Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton plant restarted, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton plant underwent maintenance [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Near - end domestic oil - based plants restarted, coal - based operation decreased slightly, and the overall load increased. With a decline in arrivals and stable shipments during the week, port inventory decreased. Downstream stocking levels remained stable, the basis remained strong, and the profit - to - cost ratio was basically stable month - on - month [4]. Polyester Short Fiber - **Price and Market Changes**: As of August 27, 2025, the spot price was around 6589, and the market basis was around - 80 against 10 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Near - end plants such as Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng increased their loads, and the operation rate slightly rose to 91.9%. Production and sales were basically stable, and inventory decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn increased, raw material stocking rose, finished product inventory continued to decrease, and margins were weak [4]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Market Changes**: From August 21 - 27, 2025, prices of various rubber products such as US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and domestic rubber products fluctuated. There were also changes in prices of Thai glue, cup - lump rubber, and other related products [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a non - high absolute level but did not show seasonal de - stocking. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [4]. Styrene - **Price and Market Changes**: From August 21 - 27, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related downstream products such as EPS changed. For example, the price of pure benzene (East China) decreased by 45, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 85 on August 27 compared to the previous day [7]. - **Profit Analysis**: The domestic profit of styrene, EPS, PS, and other products also changed. For instance, the domestic profit of EPS increased by 80 on August 27 compared to the previous day [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Most of the varieties are expected to show a trend of weakening oscillations, while some are expected to be in a state of oscillation or oscillation with a slightly upward trend [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil futures continue to oscillate weakly. The US's 50 - day sanctions buffer period on Russia eases concerns about short - term supply reduction, and Russia's seaborne volume has increased. China's GDP growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, which may lead to fewer economic stimulus policies in the second half of the year, causing commodities to show a somewhat weak trend. The increase in China's crude oil processing volume in June has led to a significant increase in the output of petrochemicals, and the decline in crude oil has led the domestic chemical industry. The overall energy and chemical industry is facing downward pressure due to weak demand and falling costs [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. With the release of the OPEC + production increase negative factors since July, the high refinery operation during the peak demand season and the crude oil supply pressure are in a state of mutual restraint. After the weakening of geopolitical disturbances, oil prices are gradually under pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly. The LPG and civil gas volumes are still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the overall demand is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - valued stage. The increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread, and the current demand foundation for asphalt to rise is not solid. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are under great downward pressure. The increase in heavy oil supply and the decrease in power generation demand are relatively certain, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to oscillate weakly. Affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, the demand space is insufficient, but the current valuation is low and it follows the crude oil to fluctuate [9]. - **Methanol**: The domestic operating load continues to decline, and methanol oscillates. The supply contraction expectation is increasing, but the market's expectation of a reduction in methanol imports has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the coal supply is stable [19]. - **Urea**: The supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. The supply pressure is slightly relieved due to temporary maintenance in some areas, but the overall demand is weak, and it depends on exports to digest the inventory [20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: The future arrival volume of EG is limited, and it follows the raw materials to decline. The port inventory is at a low level, and the EG industry chain itself is in a state of oscillation in the short term, but the pattern is bearish in the long term due to new device production [14]. - **PX**: The sanctions of the US on Russia are less than expected, and PX follows the crude oil to decline. In the short term, the cost - side crude oil is likely to maintain a high - level consolidation, and the PX price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **PTA**: The cost declines, and PTA falls. The supply of PTA is sufficient next week, and downstream polyester factories plan to reduce production. However, the cost - side PX provides strong support, and the overall decline is expected to be limited [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The decline in crude oil drags down short - fiber, and the short - fiber's own basis remains stable. The short - fiber industry chain's current supply and demand are acceptable, and the 9 - month contract is at a discount to the spot. The short - fiber processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: The decline in crude oil drags down bottle chips, and the supply and demand of bottle chips themselves are acceptable. The bottle chip price follows the upstream raw materials to decline, but the processing fee has support and will remain stable [17]. - **PP**: The support from maintenance is limited, and PP oscillates downward. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and the demand side is weak. The short - term outlook is for oscillation [22]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The maintenance rate is decreasing, and plastic oscillates weakly. The raw material support is weak, the supply side has certain pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season [21]. - **Pure Benzene**: The confidence of benzene - styrene bulls is insufficient, and pure benzene declines. In the medium term, the pattern of pure benzene from July to August is acceptable, but the high inventory suppresses the rebound strength [11][12]. - **Benzene - Styrene**: The risk of a short - squeeze is decreasing, and benzene - styrene falls. The supply and demand of benzene - styrene are expected to weaken, and the inventory in ports is accumulating, but the overall inventory accumulation in Q3 is controllable [13][14]. - **PVC**: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. The macro and micro fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, and the production is expected to increase in the future while the demand is weak [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. The support comes from the warm market sentiment, weak liquid chlorine price, and the discount of the caustic soda futures price, while the pressure comes from the peak of the spot price and the pessimistic supply - demand expectation [24]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.95 with a change of - 0.03, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 26 with a change of - 18 [26]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 193 with a change of 29, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [27]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 341 with a change of - 19, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 320 with a change of - 11 [28].