Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Rebound", with a strategy of "Sell on rallies" [1] Core View of the Report - Although the crude oil price rebounded due to positive US EIA data and increased market bets on a Fed rate cut in September, as well as the difficult progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement, the subsequent consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and Russia is increasing its crude oil exports. The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weakening, so it is recommended to sell on rallies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. US EIA data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to decline, and overall oil product inventories also continue to decrease. OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, canceling the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut implemented in November 2023 one year in advance. Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asia in September. Concerns about the US economy have emerged due to lower - than - expected new employment in July. After the US - Russia talks, there are no plans to impose further sanctions on Russia or additional tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil. EIA and IEA have both raised the global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The US's additional 25% tariff on Indian goods may cause changes in the global crude oil trade flow. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 fell 0.97% to 481.7 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 478.4 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 483.6 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3,618 to 35,842 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory increase in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 to exceed 2 million barrels per day, 0.8 million barrels per day higher than last month's forecast. EIA has lowered the average Brent crude oil price for 2025 from $68.89/barrel to $67.22/barrel and for 2026 from $58.48/barrel to $51.43/barrel. OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises it for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA raises the global oil supply growth rate for 2025 by 370,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day and for 2026 by 620,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, while lowering the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day to 680,000 barrels per day. US EIA data on August 27 showed that the US crude oil inventory for the week ending August 22 decreased by 2.392 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels, refined oil inventory decreased by 1.786 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's June crude oil production was adjusted down by 46,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day month - on - month, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels per day to 13.439 million barrels per day in the week of August 22. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.15 million barrels per day, with gasoline and diesel demand both increasing month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to increase by 0.50% month - on - month [4][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is in a seasonal travel peak season, with US crude oil inventories at a low level. Although overall oil product inventories have increased, there are concerns about supply and demand. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, which may intensify the supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, adding medium - to - long - term downward pressure on crude oil, but there is still uncertainty, and crude oil volatility has increased. It is recommended to operate in a range and be cautious [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - It is recommended to operate in a range. The market is worried about the decline in Russian and Iranian crude oil supplies due to political factors. The US economic concerns and OPEC+ production increase plan may lead to a supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, increasing the medium - to - long - term downward pressure on crude oil, but there is uncertainty, and crude oil volatility has increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2509 fell 0.63% to 501.0 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 497.5 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 510.9 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 854 to 31,576 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the 2025 US crude oil production forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the global oil inventory increase in the second half of 2025 from 800,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. IEA lowered the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 16,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 growth rate by 18,000 barrels per day to 722,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rates at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week of August 1, US crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories decreased, while aviation kerosene and other oil product inventories increased [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day to 27.016 million barrels per day, and its June 2025 production increased by 219,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of August 1 decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased, with gasoline demand decreasing and diesel demand increasing. The single - week supply of US crude oil products continued to decrease [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Most of the varieties are expected to show a trend of weakening oscillations, while some are expected to be in a state of oscillation or oscillation with a slightly upward trend [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil futures continue to oscillate weakly. The US's 50 - day sanctions buffer period on Russia eases concerns about short - term supply reduction, and Russia's seaborne volume has increased. China's GDP growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, which may lead to fewer economic stimulus policies in the second half of the year, causing commodities to show a somewhat weak trend. The increase in China's crude oil processing volume in June has led to a significant increase in the output of petrochemicals, and the decline in crude oil has led the domestic chemical industry. The overall energy and chemical industry is facing downward pressure due to weak demand and falling costs [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. With the release of the OPEC + production increase negative factors since July, the high refinery operation during the peak demand season and the crude oil supply pressure are in a state of mutual restraint. After the weakening of geopolitical disturbances, oil prices are gradually under pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly. The LPG and civil gas volumes are still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the overall demand is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - valued stage. The increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread, and the current demand foundation for asphalt to rise is not solid. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are under great downward pressure. The increase in heavy oil supply and the decrease in power generation demand are relatively certain, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to oscillate weakly. Affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, the demand space is insufficient, but the current valuation is low and it follows the crude oil to fluctuate [9]. - **Methanol**: The domestic operating load continues to decline, and methanol oscillates. The supply contraction expectation is increasing, but the market's expectation of a reduction in methanol imports has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the coal supply is stable [19]. - **Urea**: The supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. The supply pressure is slightly relieved due to temporary maintenance in some areas, but the overall demand is weak, and it depends on exports to digest the inventory [20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: The future arrival volume of EG is limited, and it follows the raw materials to decline. The port inventory is at a low level, and the EG industry chain itself is in a state of oscillation in the short term, but the pattern is bearish in the long term due to new device production [14]. - **PX**: The sanctions of the US on Russia are less than expected, and PX follows the crude oil to decline. In the short term, the cost - side crude oil is likely to maintain a high - level consolidation, and the PX price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **PTA**: The cost declines, and PTA falls. The supply of PTA is sufficient next week, and downstream polyester factories plan to reduce production. However, the cost - side PX provides strong support, and the overall decline is expected to be limited [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The decline in crude oil drags down short - fiber, and the short - fiber's own basis remains stable. The short - fiber industry chain's current supply and demand are acceptable, and the 9 - month contract is at a discount to the spot. The short - fiber processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: The decline in crude oil drags down bottle chips, and the supply and demand of bottle chips themselves are acceptable. The bottle chip price follows the upstream raw materials to decline, but the processing fee has support and will remain stable [17]. - **PP**: The support from maintenance is limited, and PP oscillates downward. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and the demand side is weak. The short - term outlook is for oscillation [22]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The maintenance rate is decreasing, and plastic oscillates weakly. The raw material support is weak, the supply side has certain pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season [21]. - **Pure Benzene**: The confidence of benzene - styrene bulls is insufficient, and pure benzene declines. In the medium term, the pattern of pure benzene from July to August is acceptable, but the high inventory suppresses the rebound strength [11][12]. - **Benzene - Styrene**: The risk of a short - squeeze is decreasing, and benzene - styrene falls. The supply and demand of benzene - styrene are expected to weaken, and the inventory in ports is accumulating, but the overall inventory accumulation in Q3 is controllable [13][14]. - **PVC**: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. The macro and micro fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, and the production is expected to increase in the future while the demand is weak [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. The support comes from the warm market sentiment, weak liquid chlorine price, and the discount of the caustic soda futures price, while the pressure comes from the peak of the spot price and the pessimistic supply - demand expectation [24]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.95 with a change of - 0.03, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 26 with a change of - 18 [26]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 193 with a change of 29, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [27]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 341 with a change of - 19, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 320 with a change of - 11 [28].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Middle - East conflict has not further escalated, and oil prices have given back their gains. Although the situation has not worsened, there may be more attacks on energy facilities in the future, and oil prices will remain highly volatile in the short term. The strategy is for oil prices to oscillate strongly in the medium - term with a short - position configuration [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Oil prices declined: The July - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% drop; the August - delivery Brent crude oil futures price dropped by $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.94% at 530 yuan per barrel [1]. - Iran's nuclear - related situation: Iran's parliament is preparing a bill to withdraw from the NPT, but Tehran still opposes developing weapons of mass destruction. Iran won't negotiate with the US until its response to Israeli attacks is completed [1]. - Israel's stance: Israel said its actions against Iran may take 2 - 3 weeks, depending on political leadership's decisions. If Iran accepts US demands to abandon its nuclear program, Israel is willing to stop its actions [1]. - Warning from Iraq: Iraq's foreign minister warned that intensified Middle - East tensions and a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices up to $300 per barrel, raising European inflation and complicating oil exports from countries like Iraq. Closing the Strait would reduce global oil supply by about 5 million barrels per day [1]. - Goods transportation through the Strait of Hormuz: The number of cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz decreased slightly to 111 on the 15th, down from 116 on June 12, but major oil infrastructure has not been significantly disrupted [1]. - OPEC monthly report: OPEC maintained its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 183,000 barrels per day to 27.02 million barrels per day, and OPEC +'s average daily production was 41.23 million barrels, an 180,000 - barrel increase from April. It expects the global economy to perform well in the second half of 2025 [1]. Investment Logic - Israel has not launched further attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure after weekend attacks. It may focus on regime power centers, assassinations, and missile/nuclear targets. The easing situation has relieved the market, but more energy - facility attacks are possible, and short - term oil prices will be highly volatile [2]. Strategy - Oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and a medium - term short - position configuration is recommended [3].

Core Insights - The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report projects that U.S. crude oil demand growth will be 80,000 barrels per day in 2025, a decrease from the previous estimate of 190,000 barrels per day [1] Summary by Category - **Demand Forecast** - U.S. crude oil demand growth is now expected to be 80,000 barrels per day for 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 190,000 barrels per day [1]