1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend. Different sectors, such as financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals, have their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in financial derivatives, stock index futures are expected to test 3900 again, while treasury bond futures have opportunities despite fluctuations; in agricultural products, the supply - demand situation of various varieties varies, affecting their price trends [5][20][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to test 3900 again. On Thursday, the market showed a sideways shock. The main stock index futures contracts mostly declined, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The market rebound was affected by factors such as the overnight decline of the US stock market, and it is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation trend [18][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There were fluctuations, but opportunities remained. On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, and the market funds were balanced and slightly loose. The central bank's open - market operations and market rumors affected the bond market sentiment. In the short term, the central bank's loose tone remained unchanged, but the long - end repair rhythm might be repeated [22][23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The production outlook was good, and US soybeans continued to be under pressure. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The US soybean export sales decreased, and the Brazilian soybean production was expected to increase. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit was still in deficit, and the overall price was expected to be supported but with limited sustainability [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices dropped sharply. The ICE and London sugar futures prices declined. The Brazilian sugar production increase was basically realized, and the market focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar market had increasing supply pressure, but the price had certain support near the cost line [29][30][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Palm oil had a technical rebound, and the overall oils were at the bottom - level shock. The overseas palm oil and soybean oil prices had small fluctuations. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the domestic soybean oil inventory was gradually decreasing, while the rapeseed oil inventory was expected to continue to decline [35][36] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price declined, and the futures price was at the bottom - level shock. The CBOT corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn processing enterprise inventory increased, and the starch inventory also increased. The Northeast corn price was strong, while the North China corn price was weak [37][38][39] - **Hogs**: The slaughter recovered, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. The hog price was stable in most regions. The short - term slaughter pressure decreased, but the overall supply pressure still existed [39][40][41] - **Peanuts**: The spot price declined, and the futures price had a narrow - range shock. The peanut price was stable in some regions and declined in others. The oil factory's purchase price was adjusted, and the 03 peanut futures price still had a downward space [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: The demand was average, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The main - producing and main - selling area prices were relatively stable. The number of laying hens decreased slightly, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved [45][46][47] - **Apples**: The demand was average, and the apple price was mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed. The apple price was high before, which led to weak demand, and the market was concerned about the January delivery and pre - Spring Festival stocking [49][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales were good, and the cotton price was shock - upward. The ICE cotton futures price increased. The domestic cotton import and export volume changed, and the new cotton sales progress was fast. The market was affected by factors such as the expected reduction of cotton planting area and the expansion of textile factory capacity [52][53][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material prices stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price rebounded from the bottom. The steel product supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly. The steel price was affected by factors such as the raw material supply, demand, and export policy, and it was expected to show a shock - upward trend [57][58][59] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices rebounded from the bottom, and the trading logic change needed attention. The Mongolian coking coal market was strong, and the prices of some domestic coking coal increased. The market "anti - involution" sentiment led to the price rebound, and the future supply - demand situation might improve slightly [59][60][61] - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations were repeated, and the ore price was in shock. The domestic crude steel and rebar production decreased, and the iron ore production increased slightly. The global iron ore supply was loose, and the domestic demand was weak. The ore price was expected to have limited upward space [62][63][64] - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the "anti - involution" expectation, the prices rebounded in the short term. The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was expected to decline slightly, and the demand was under pressure. The cost support and "anti - involution" expectation led to the price rebound [64][65][66] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US November CPI was better than expected, but the data was questionable, leading to market fluctuations. The international gold and silver prices fluctuated widely, and the US dollar index and US bond yields changed. The market was in a long - short tug - of - war, and the gold and silver prices were expected to maintain a high - level range [67][68][69] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The trading enthusiasm was over - high, and the risk factors were gradually accumulating. The platinum and palladium futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume expanded. The macro - environment was favorable, and the news boosted the demand outlook. The platinum was short - term bullish, and the palladium might be affected by the macro - environment [69][70][71] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The copper futures prices increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data affected the market, and the copper supply was expected to be tight in 2026. The long - term price trend was upward, but the short - term might be in shock [74][75][76] - **Alumina**: The price was in a weak shock. The alumina futures price declined, and the spot price decreased slightly. The overseas supply negotiation and domestic inventory situation affected the price. The price was expected to be under pressure after the "anti - involution" expectation subsided [78][79][80] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas economic data was released this week, and the aluminum price rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum futures price increased, and the inventory decreased. The overseas economic data was better than expected, and the domestic demand was resilient. The price was supported [83][84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum supply was still tight, and the alloy price rebounded with the sector. The cast aluminum alloy futures price increased, and the spot price increased. The scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the cost supported the price. The price was expected to maintain a high - level shock [86][87] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the domestic social inventory today. The zinc futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The overseas zinc inventory increased, and the domestic smelting profit was compressed. The price was under pressure from the external market [88][89][90] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the inventory change. The lead futures price increased, and the spot price decreased slightly. The domestic lead supply and demand decreased, and the inventory became more visible. The price was expected to maintain a range shock [91][92][93] - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy expectation stimulated the nickel price rebound, but the surplus suppressed the upward space. The LME nickel price increased, and the inventory decreased. The global nickel was in a surplus situation, but the Indonesian policy adjustment stimulated the price rebound. The price was expected to decline after the short - term rebound [93][94][95] - **Stainless Steel**: Followed the nickel price and weakened in shock. The stainless steel inventory decreased, and the terminal demand was in the off - season. The price was affected by the nickel price and demand, and it was expected to be at a low - level shock [96][97][99] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The industrial silicon was in a state of inventory accumulation. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 was pessimistic, and the price was expected to decline. It was recommended to sell on rallies [99][100] - **Polysilicon**: Realize the profits of long positions and pay attention to risk management. The polysilicon futures trading rules changed. The downstream demand was relatively pessimistic, and the short - term price was expected to be strong. It was recommended to take profits on long positions and buy after a correction [100][101][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory reduction was slower than expected, and the lithium price was under pressure to correct. The lithium carbonate price had a short - term correction, and the inventory reduction was slow. The price was expected to be at a high - level, and it was recommended to operate cautiously [104][105] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the November export data from Myanmar. The tin futures price increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data was questionable, and the domestic tin supply and demand were weak. The price was expected to be affected by the Myanmar export data and market fluctuations [107][108][109] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK released the price of 2500/2600 for the first week, and pay attention to the January freight rate change path. The spot freight rate increased slightly. The European port congestion was serious, and the demand was expected to improve in December - January. The short - term price was expected to be at a high - level shock, and it was recommended to take partial profits on long positions [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The surplus pressure was difficult to change, and the oil price rebound was limited. The crude oil futures prices increased slightly. The US inflation and employment data changed, and the geopolitical situation was uncertain. The oil price was expected to be in a weak shock in the medium - term [114][115][116] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand was weak, and the raw material risk remained. The asphalt futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The terminal demand decreased, and the raw material supply was uncertain. The price was expected to be in a narrow - range shock [117][118][119] - **Fuel Oil**: The short - term low - sulfur supply was continuously increasing. The fuel oil futures prices increased slightly. The low - sulfur supply was expected to increase, and the high - sulfur demand was stable and weak. The short - term price was expected to be bearish [120][121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The LNG downward trend remained unchanged. The natural gas futures prices had different changes. The weather affected the demand, and the overall supply was loose. The HH2602 contract long positions were recommended to be held [124][125][126] - **LPG**: The PDH profit continued to be in deficit. The LPG futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The international LPG market was strong, and the PDH profit was in deficit. It was recommended to short the 03 contract on rallies [127][128][129] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales volume increased, and the market atmosphere was boosted. The PX and PTA futures prices increased. The PTA supply was expected to increase slowly, and the downstream polyester demand was high. The price was expected to be shock - upward [131][132] - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene supply - demand was loose, and the styrene basis weakened. The pure benzene and styrene futures prices declined slightly. The pure benzene supply increased and demand decreased, and the styrene supply and demand were also weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [134][135][136] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure remained, and the price was in shock. The ethylene glycol futures price increased slightly. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory had a de - stocking pressure. The short - term price was expected to be in shock and weak in the medium - term [138][139] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand was weak. The short - fiber futures price increased. The short - fiber supply and demand decreased, and the processing fee was under pressure. The price was expected to be shock - upward [140][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand was relatively loose. The bottle - chip futures price increased. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was relatively stable. The price was expected to be shock - upward [143][144] - **Propylene**: The demand was poor, and the rebound was weak. The propylene futures price increased first and then decreased. The propylene supply was expected to be high, and the demand was weak. The short - term price was expected to be shock - upward [146][147] - **Plastic PP**: The PE production decreased month - on - month, and the PP production increased month - on - month. The L and PP futures prices declined slightly. The PE and PP supply and demand had different changes. It was recommended to wait and see for the L and PP 2605 contracts [148][150][151] - **Caustic Soda**: The price was in a shock trend. The caustic soda spot price had a small adjustment. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [152][153][154] - **PVC**: The price continued to rebound. The PVC futures price increased, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to continue to rebound [155][156][157] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The soda ash futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The supply was expected to be under pressure in the future, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [157][158][159] - **Glass**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The glass futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The supply was expected to be reduced, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [160][161][163] - **Methanol**: The price rose strongly. The methanol production increased, and the international device operation was affected. The price was expected to be shock - upward [165][166] - **Urea**: The price continued to rise. The urea production decreased slightly, and the international market had an impact. The short - term price was expected to be strong, and the medium - long - term supply - demand was relatively loose [167][168][169] - **Pulp**: The reality was weak, but the expectation was strong. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration and port inventory changes. The pulp futures price declined slightly, and the spot price had a small adjustment. The cost supported the price, but the demand was weak. It was recommended to hold the previous short positions [170][171][173] - **Logs**: The fundamentals were weak, and the futures - spot price was inverted. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration. The log price was stable, and the inventory and arrival volume changed. The price was expected to continue to bottom - out. It was recommended to hold the 03 long positions [173][174][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remained, and the high pulp price transmission did not meet expectations. The offset printing paper futures price declined slightly, and the spot price was stable. The production and inventory of double - offset paper and coated paper changed. The price was expected to be bearish [179][180] - **Natural Rubber**: The tire production line decreased month - on - month. The natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The Thai government took measures to stabilize the price, and the domestic tire production decreased. It was recommended to short the RU 05 contract slightly and hold the NR 02 contract long positions [182][183] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BD & BR production decreased marginally, and the tire production decreased month - on - month. The butadiene rubber futures price increased, and the natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The domestic butadiene and tire production decreased. It was recommended to hold the BR 02 contract long positions [186][187][188]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market on Thursday showed a widespread decline. The A - share market was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and corporate earnings reports, and it may continue to explore the bottom on Friday. The bond market continued to repair, with the long - end performing stronger. In the agricultural product market, different varieties had different trends, with some showing potential for a rebound and some in a state of shock. The black metal market was affected by factors such as raw material prices and policies, and steel prices were weakly volatile. The non - ferrous metal market was generally driven by the weakening of the US dollar, with some metals rising. The energy and chemical market was under pressure from supply and demand, and most varieties showed a weakening trend [19][22][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the market fell across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index and other major indices declined, and stock index futures also followed the decline of the spot market. The Fed's interest rate cut and corporate earnings reports affected market sentiment. On Friday, the A - share market may explore the bottom due to inertia, and it is recommended to wait for the market to oversell and then go long on the dips. Consider IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage when the discount widens, and use bullish spreads for options [19][20][21]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central economic work conference's statements on fiscal and monetary policies weakened the probability of an unexpected fiscal policy next year and made policy rate cuts still expected. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions in TL contracts on rallies and pay attention to potential futures - spot arbitrage opportunities in TF contracts [22][23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - CBOT soybean index rose slightly, and the US soybean export sales data showed some changes. In the context of a potentially large harvest in South America, international soybeans have a limited upside, but the domestic soybean meal may have a phased rebound due to factors such as profit losses. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and sell wide - straddle options [27][28]. Sugar - International sugar prices were oscillating at a low level, and domestic sugar prices also showed a similar trend. Brazil's sugar production was approaching the end of the season, and the supply pressure was gradually easing. In China, although the new sugar season had an increasing production, the high production cost provided some support. It is recommended to build long positions on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options at low levels [31][33]. Oilseeds and Oils - The external market of oils showed different trends. Malaysian palm oil had a risk of inventory accumulation, while domestic soybean oil was gradually reducing inventory, and rapeseed oil was expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - short trading in a band - trading manner, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35][36]. Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn stabilized, while the domestic northeast corn price was weak, and the port price declined. The 03 corn contract was expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the 03 contract on corrections, go long on the 05 and 07 contracts on long - term declines, conduct 3 - 7 corn reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [39][40]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs was generally stable, but the overall supply pressure still existed. It is recommended to mainly hold short positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options [41][42]. Peanuts - The peanut spot price was stable, and large - scale oil mills started to purchase. The 01 peanut contract may have a downward space. It is recommended to lightly go short on the 01 peanut contract on rallies, conduct 1 - 5 peanut reverse arbitrage, and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options [44][46]. Eggs - Egg prices were mainly stable. The recent reduction in the number of culled chickens had eased the supply pressure. It is recommended to expect the near - term contracts to oscillate in a range and consider building long positions on the far - term contracts on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [47][49]. Apples - The apple inventory was low, and the fundamentals were strong. It is recommended that the apple price may oscillate at a high level, conduct long 1 and short 10 arbitrage, and wait and see for options [52][53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The external market of cotton was weak, but the domestic new cotton sales were good, and there were positive factors such as a possible reduction in the planting area in Xinjiang next year. It is recommended to go long on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [56][58]. Black Metals Steel - Affected by raw materials such as coal and coke, steel prices were weakly volatile. Although the steel inventory continued to decline, the demand was affected by the season. It is recommended that the steel price will continue to be weakly volatile, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread on rallies, and wait and see for options [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Mongolia planned to increase coal exports, and the market expected a weak trend. The coking coal price continued to decline, and the spot price was also weak. It is recommended that the double - coking futures will continue to be weakly volatile [65][66]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore was generally stable, and the domestic demand for steel products was weak. It is recommended to adopt a bearish view on iron ore, wait and see for arbitrage and options [72][73]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, the cost had some support, but the demand was under pressure. For ferromanganese, the cost was rising, but the demand was also weak. It is recommended that ferroalloys will oscillate at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [74][75]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Affected by the weakening of the US dollar, gold and silver prices rose. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options for silver [77][78]. Platinum and Palladium - Driven by the weakening of the US dollar and the bullish trend of precious metals, platinum and palladium showed a phased upward trend. It is recommended to go long on platinum on the dips based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for palladium, conduct long platinum and short palladium arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options [81][82]. Copper - The copper price reached a new high due to the weakening of the US dollar. Although the supply was tight in 2026, the downstream demand was insufficient. It is recommended that the copper price will be strongly volatile, pay attention to inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and wait and see for options [84][88][89]. Alumina - The alumina price was weak due to slow warehouse receipt digestion and high inventory. It is recommended that the alumina price will continue to be weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [91][93]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Driven by macro and micro factors, the aluminum price rebounded. It is recommended that the aluminum price will be strongly driven by the macro - fundamentals, wait and see for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Affected by the market sentiment, the aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. The spot market was weak, and the demand was weakening. It is recommended that the aluminum alloy will be strong along with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [98][101]. Zinc - The zinc price was strongly volatile due to the reduction of domestic social inventory. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see for arbitrage and options [103][104]. Lead - The lead price oscillated in a range. The domestic supply of secondary lead had a reduction expectation, but the consumption was gradually weakening. It is recommended to try short positions on rallies [107][108]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated downward due to the oversupply situation. It is recommended that the nickel price will continue to decline, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [109][111][112]. Stainless Steel - Affected by the decline of the nickel price, the stainless steel price oscillated at a low level. It is recommended that the stainless steel price will oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage [113][114]. Industrial Silicon - Affected by the air pollution warning in Xinjiang, the industrial silicon price may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, and aggressive investors can participate in short - term long positions, conduct long polysilicon and short industrial silicon arbitrage, and stop losses on selling out - of - the - money call options [115]. Polysilicon - Although the downstream demand was under pressure, the polysilicon enterprises had a strong willingness to support the price. It is recommended to buy on corrections, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy both call and put options [116][117]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was running at a high level, but there was a pressure of inventory accumulation in the medium term. It is recommended to buy after a sufficient correction in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [119][120]. Tin - Due to the escalation of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the tin price rose strongly. It is recommended that the tin price will be strong in the near future, wait and see for options [120][122]. Shipping Container Shipping - The spot freight rate showed some improvements. The 02 contract had incorporated some price - increase expectations and was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to partially take profits and partially hold long positions in the EC2602 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [125][126]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude oil supply - demand pressure was difficult to change, and the price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to be bearish on the short - term trend, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil inter - month spread is weak, and wait and see for options [128][129]. Asphalt - The asphalt price was affected by the decline of crude oil prices and was expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended that the BU2602 contract will oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2602 contract [131][132][133]. Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was frequently disturbed by device changes, and the high - sulfur fuel oil was expected to be weakly stable. It is recommended that the fuel oil price will be weakly volatile, the low - sulfur cracking is neutral, the high - sulfur cracking is weak, and wait and see for options [134][136][137]. PX & PTA - The PX supply was abundant, and the PTA had an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that the PX & PTA price will be weakly volatile, conduct PTA1 and 5 contract reverse arbitrage, and sell both options [138][139][140]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene supply was stable and the demand decreased, and the benzene - styrene basis weakened. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage and options [141][143][144]. Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol inventory had a de - stocking pressure, and the price was falling. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [145][146]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber supply - demand situation was weak, and the processing fee was under pressure. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [147][148]. Bottle Chips - The bottle chips supply - demand was relatively loose, and the processing fee lacked an upward drive. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [150]. Propylene - The propylene inventory was high, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to go short on rallies, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [151][153]. Plastic PP - The PE capacity utilization rate was stable, and the PP production increased. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts, pay attention to the pressure at recent high points, conduct long L2605 and short PP2605 arbitrage, and wait and see for options [154][155][156]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price was weak due to the large supply and weak demand. It is recommended that the price will be in a weak trend, wait and see for arbitrage and options [159][160]. PVC - The PVC price continued to decline due to the increase in supply and weak demand. It is recommended that the price will have difficulty in rebounding, wait and see for arbitrage and options [162][163][164]. Soda Ash - The soda ash supply increased and the demand decreased, and the price was weakening. It is recommended that the price will continue to be weak in the medium - long term, pay attention to the opportunity of short soda ash and long glass spread in the 05 contract, and wait and see for options [165][166][167]. Glass - The glass price oscillated downward due to the weak fundamental situation. It is recommended that the price will be in a weak trend, pay attention to the strategy opportunity of short soda ash and long glass in the 05 contract, conduct reverse arbitrage of 1 - 5 contracts, and wait and see for options [168][169][170]. Methanol - The methanol price continued to decline. It is recommended to go short on the 01 contract in the short term, pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [172][173]. Urea - The urea trading volume increased, but the futures price continued to decline. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile in the short - and medium - term, and pay attention to policy changes [174][175]. Pulp - The pulp spot price was strong, but the demand was mainly rigid. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try short positions based on the previous high, wait and see for arbitrage and options [176][178][179]. Logs - The log fundamentals were weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 03 contract, gradually take profits on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [181][183]. Offset Printing Paper - The supply pressure of offset printing paper remained high, and the transmission of high pulp prices was less than expected. It is recommended to conduct short operations, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell OP2602 - C - 4100 options [184][185][187]. Natural Rubber - The Thai rubber water - cup price difference continued to weaken, and the tire production increased month - on - month. It is recommended to try short positions on the RU 05 contract, hold long positions on the NR 02 contract, hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread, and wait and see for options [188][190][191]. Butadiene Rubber - The high - cis butadiene rubber production decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is recommended to hold long positions on the BR 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread, and wait and see for options [192][193][195].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's short - term core factor is geopolitics, with a pessimistic view on the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and an expectation of risk escalation in the Caribbean region. Aromatics (PX, PTA, BZ, EB) and methanol are short - term long - core varieties in the chemical industry [2][4]. - The supply - demand and macro drivers of crude oil are weak in the short term, but geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. There are short - term long opportunities and mid - term short opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Logic: Supply - demand and macro drivers are weak. Short - term US high - frequency data is strong, and before a large - scale inventory build - up, the oversupply trading is difficult to restart. Geopolitical factors are the main driver in December, with a short - term long view and mid - term short opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Styrene - Logic: There is an unexpected inventory build - up during the seasonal de - stocking period, and there are still concerns about over - inventory. There are short - term fundamental contradictions and large mid - term differences. It is necessary to pay attention to the continuation of the gasoline - blending logic and future imports. Be cautious about the pulse - type upward movement of crude oil due to potential geopolitical escalation [7]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in short - term oscillation, and the structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly and 15 - minute cycles after the stop - loss of long positions [8][9]. Rubber - Logic: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand has no significant increase, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia. The inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing. The market should be treated with an oscillation view [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: It is traded around butadiene. The butadiene inventory has reached a five - year high in the past two weeks, and the price is under pressure. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the low valuation lacks short - selling space. Be cautious about the pulse - type upward movement of crude oil due to potential geopolitical escalation [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The supply - demand is neutral to positive, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected market. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and strong fundamentals in the chemical industry are likely to attract long - position funds. The long - position view is maintained [18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 6700 [18]. PTA - Logic: The polyester has little pressure, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected market. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and strong fundamentals in the chemical industry are likely to attract long - position funds. The long - position view is maintained [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 4620 [20]. PP - Logic: It still faces the pressure of olefin capacity to be put into production, with high supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is negative, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: The over - expected maintenance in Iran has led to the shutdown of multiple methanol plants. With the temperature dropping in December, a full - scale shutdown is likely. After the market over - traded the expectation of insufficient gas restrictions, the market has room for upward correction. The port de - stocking rate is accelerating. The withdrawal of crowded short positions on the previous trading board brings a large upward space [24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and short - term oscillation. After testing the support without breaking it, the upward structure continues. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2100 [25][27]. PVC - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand. The social inventory is still increasing, and there is no upward drive [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The technical structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Multiple MEG plants in Iran are under maintenance, but the domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity addition. Inventory build - up continues. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 3920. The strategy is to wait and see in the single - side hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - Logic: The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the supply pressure from the upstream olefin capacity addition remains. The supply - demand is still weak. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 6825. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the production cut in the downstream glass production line suppresses the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward drive remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions unilaterally decreases [36]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. After a reduction in positions and a decline, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 1195. The remaining short positions in the hourly cycle should be held cautiously with a stop - profit at 1195 [36]. Caustic Soda - Logic: New capacity is put into production, and most plants have resumed operation after maintenance, resulting in high supply pressure. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and the demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in supply - demand [39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. After an increase in positions and a decline, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 2220. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, supply changes are expected to be the dominant factor for prices, and demand lacks significant growth drivers. OPEC+ will maintain a 137,000 barrels per day production increase in November, which is lower than market expectations. Geopolitical risk premiums have eased, and long - term oil prices are expected to be under pressure, with Brent oil prices likely to oscillate between $60 - 75 per barrel [4]. - For PX & PTA, the PX device operating rate remains high, but downstream maintenance increases and the supply - demand balance weakens. PTA processing margins have dropped, and it is expected to follow cost fluctuations. [4] - For MEG, after the holiday, the operating rate and port inventory have increased, and the supply - demand pattern has shifted to inventory accumulation. The market is expected to be weak in the short term [5]. - For BZ & EB, the pure benzene operating rate has slightly declined but remains high. The demand for downstream products is expected to recover, but the market is affected by new device launches. Short - term prices are expected to follow the weak oscillation of crude oil. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and with high inventories and poor terminal demand, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply changes are expected to dominate prices, and demand lacks significant growth drivers. OPEC+ will maintain a 137,000 barrels per day production increase in November, lower than market expectations. Geopolitical risk premiums have eased, and long - term oil prices are expected to be under pressure, with Brent oil prices likely to oscillate between $60 - 75 per barrel [4]. PX & PTA - PX device operating rate remains high, but downstream maintenance increases and the supply - demand balance weakens. PXN is expected to be weak. PTA device changes are frequent, processing margins have dropped to around 165 yuan/ton, and it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [4]. - Domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization is 88.23%, up 0.34% from last week. Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization is 76.97% (+0.19%). PX - naphtha spread remains around $220 per ton. Some PX devices have restarted or are under maintenance. PXN is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the commissioning time of a 3 million - ton new capacity in the fourth quarter [8]. - PTA spot price is 4,500 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton from last week. The futures basis of the main contract is - 63 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week. Weekly average capacity utilization is 77.84%, up 0.35% from last week. After new device commissioning in October, supply pressure remains, and it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [14]. MEG - After the holiday, the MEG operating rate has recovered, and East China port inventory has significantly increased. The supply - demand pattern has shifted to inventory accumulation, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [5]. - The market price of ethylene glycol this week is 4,214 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton from last week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization is 70.01%, up 3.27% from last week. The port inventory has increased to 443,100 tons, up 42,800 tons from last week. The futures price has declined, and the market is weak [19]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene operating rate has slightly declined to 78.35% but remains high. The demand for downstream products is expected to recover, but the market is affected by new device launches. Short - term prices are expected to follow the weak oscillation of crude oil. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and with high inventories and poor terminal demand, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation [5]. - This week, the pure benzene operating rate is 79.29%, up 0.55% from last week; the styrene operating rate is 71.24%, down 2.37% from last week. The downstream S - product comprehensive operating rate is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The short - term fundamentals have limited improvement, and it is expected to be in a weak oscillation [32]. Polyester Industry - This week, the average weekly capacity utilization of the domestic polyester industry is 87.8%, up 0.89% from last week. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 64.06%, up 0.94% from the previous period. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 14.29 days, down 1.71 days from last week. Factory inventories have increased, and the industry is under pressure [26].