Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) rebounded due to the rebound of coking coal prices and the poor restart of overseas Saudi Arabian plants. The supply is in an increasing trend, but the restart of overseas plants is not smooth, and the increase of port inventory is less than expected. Under low inventory, attention should be paid to cost changes [1][3] - In terms of overall fundamentals, the domestic supply load of ethylene glycol synthesis gas has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production units are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the supply of long - distance goods is expected to gradually return to normal. In July, the terminal replenished inventory, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term. In early August, there will be a small inventory build - up, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (a change of +15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.34%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,493 yuan/ton (a change of +33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.74%), and the East China spot basis of EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 80 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was - 11 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - In July, the terminal replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 51.6 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 42.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.3 tons, lower than the planned value. The port inventory decreased slightly last week. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 13.8 tons, and it is expected that the inventory at the main ports will increase this week [1] - The overall balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up at the beginning of August, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of PX is expected to increase, with the balance sheet shifting from destocking to balance, but it remains in a low - inventory state. The PTA spot processing fee is at a low level, and it is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The demand side has not significantly improved, and the improvement still awaits the arrival of seasonal peak - season orders [1][2]. - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is taken on PX/PTA/PF/PR. There are suggestions for cross - variety and cross - period trading, such as narrowing the PTA processing fee at high prices, increasing the PR processing fee at low prices, and conducting reverse spreads for PTA2509 - 2601 and PF2509 - 2511 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - TA main - contract spot basis is - 19 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 4 yuan/ton), PTA spot processing fee is 111 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 34 yuan/ton), and the main - contract on - paper processing fee is 370 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 2 yuan/ton) [2]. - The PXN of PX is 253 dollars/ton (a month - on - month change of + 11.38 dollars/ton) [1]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - PX processing fee PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR; PTA spot processing fee; South Korea's xylene isomerization profit; South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit are all analyzed in the report [6][7]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Analyzed are the toluene US - Asia spread: FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [7]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Recent commissioning of multiple reforming units and restart of some PX units have led to a gradual recovery of supply. China's PX load is expected to recover successively, and the supply of PX is expected to increase [1]. - Short - term PTA maintenance has improved supply - demand, but mainstream suppliers' active sales have suppressed prices [2]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts has led to abundant liquid supply [2]. - The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to balance, but it remains in a low - inventory state [1]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Polyester operating rate is 88.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%). In late July, terminal weaving concentrated on replenishing raw materials, significantly reducing filament inventory pressure. Short - term polyester load remains firm [2]. - Short - fiber factories have different pressures in different product types, with cotton - type pressure being acceptable, while hollow and low - melting - point types face greater pressure and have slightly reduced production [2]. - For bottle chips, the maintenance plans of several large manufacturers have been gradually implemented, and the load is expected to remain stable in the short term [2][3]. 7. PF Detailed Data - PF spot production profit is 122 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton). PF demand - side orders are weak, inventory remains high, and the willingness to hold goods is low under the drag of downstream production cuts. The near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts [3]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 443 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 10 yuan/ton). After the maintenance plans of several large manufacturers are completed, there are no restart plans in August. The bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for fluctuations after repair [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton or -0.09% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton or -0.12% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$79/ton (down $3/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton month-on-month). The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons (down 7.7 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons (down 3.1 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, with low arrivals and significant inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 15 tons, and inventory may rise again [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Domestically, the supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure shows a benign inventory reduction, but the circulating spot will be supplemented after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Overseas, recent restarts of overseas plants indicate a loose supply, with concentrated arrivals in early July. The demand is currently strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers plan to conduct maintenance in early July, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is neutral. With increasing supply and decreasing demand, it shows a short - term weak performance, but the downside is limited. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$79/ton, and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific content about international price difference is provided in the text. 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - No specific content about downstream sales, production, and operating rate is provided in the text. 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15 tons [1].