化工日报 | 2025-12-09 需求季节性走弱，市场震荡运行 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，Brent油价维持60~65美元/桶运行，聚焦于俄乌和谈进展，此外委内瑞拉局势也传递出不确定性。市场情 绪观望，油价维持震荡拉锯节奏。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN275美元/吨(环比变动-10.75美元/吨）。PX装置平稳运行。在明年上半年的良好预期下， 周内PXN走扩至286美元/吨。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效 维持。聚酯开工支撑下PXN有支撑，但远期预期下估值当前已处于季节性中高位水平。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -30元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+2元/吨），PTA现货加工费161元/吨（环比变动-35元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费266元/吨（环比变动-13元/吨），近端检修计划较多，且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求，聚酯 负荷支撑下，PTA小幅去库，基差反弹。中长期集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.8%（环比+0.3%），近期织造负荷有所下滑，11月底后内贸订单开始加速转弱，坯布库存 也开始加速累积，预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and moderately bullish rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [4]. Core Viewpoints - The Brent oil price ranges from $60 to $65 per barrel, with a bearish fundamental drive due to increased oil supply from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia since Q3. However, market differentiation caused by sanctions persists, and geopolitical and macro - events may impact sentiment [1]. - In the PX market, the PXN has widened recently. With a loose MX supply, PX load can be maintained at a high level. PXN is supported by polyester production but has limited upside due to high PX load and capacity expansion [1]. - For TA, the spot basis and processing fees have increased. Recent concentrated maintenance and improved export demand have led to better supply - demand conditions. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve as the capacity expansion cycle ends [2]. - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (up 0.8% month - on - month). Domestic sales orders have improved since late October, and inventory has decreased. The short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% [2]. - In the PF market, the production profit has increased, and inventory has decreased. The price is consolidating, but it is difficult to raise prices, and the processing fee has slightly compressed [2]. - For PR, the bottle - chip processing fee has decreased slightly. The market is in a demand off - season and a pre - Spring Festival inventory gap, with high social inventory and weak demand, so the processing fee is expected to remain volatile [3]. - In terms of strategies, for the single - side trading, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The upside of the 01 contract may be limited, and attention should be paid to the 05 contract in the long - term. There are no recommendations for cross - variety and cross - period trading [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 43 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan/ton month - on - month) [2]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is $263 per ton (up $1.25 per ton month - on - month). The PTA spot processing fee is 201 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 277 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1][2]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - No specific data is provided in the given content. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The PX load can be effectively maintained at a high level, and overseas PX remains stable at a medium - high level. The concentrated PTA maintenance has improved supply - demand conditions [1][2]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - No specific data is provided in the given content. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (up 0.8% month - on - month), and the short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% [2]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 164 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton month - on - month). The short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventory has decreased to a low level [2]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 440 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton month - on - month). The bottle - chip load remains stable, and factory inventory remains unchanged. The processing fee is expected to remain volatile [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [4] Core Viewpoints - The cost side shows that before the National Day, the strong oil price was mainly driven by geopolitics, with a weak fundamental situation. After the National Day, the slowdown in China's import demand and the increase in US exports, along with the increase in Middle - East exports, have led to an oversupply situation [1] - For PX, the PXN was $222/ton (a month - on - month increase of $3.50/ton). The PX load in China has recovered to a relatively high level, and with the restart of several overseas plants, the overall PX operation rate has increased. The postponed fourth - quarter maintenance plan and capacity expansion of some plants have put pressure on PXN. The downstream PTA plants have more maintenance plans, weakening the fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook [1] - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 63 yuan/ton (no month - on - month change), the PTA spot processing fee is 152 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 312 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton). The inventory accumulation rate has narrowed in October and November, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure in December [2] - In terms of demand, the polyester operation rate is 91.5% (a month - on - month increase of 1.2%). In late September, the weaving and texturing loads increased, and orders improved marginally. Before the National Day, the replenishment demand led to a significant increase in filament sales, and the polyester factory's product inventory decreased significantly [2] - For PF, the spot production profit is 251 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load has reached a high level, and the factory inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials [3] - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 507 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton). In the short term, the bottle - chip load remains stable, and the export order - taking and shipping performance are average. There is large supply - demand pressure under the upcoming commissioning of the new Fuhai plant [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine operation rate, and filament profit [49][51][60] PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [69][73][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [89][91][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, and suggests paying attention to the situation of Shenghong's PX plant [4]. Core Viewpoints - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue has stalled or regressed, causing oil prices to decline slightly in fluctuations. The crude oil market remains in a multi - short stalemate. Naphtha has shown strength recently due to supply disruptions and expected demand recovery. The profitability of downstream olefins is guaranteed at the bottom as the peak season approaches [1]. - In the PX market, the PXN was 252 dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0.13 dollars/ton). After the restart of Idemitsu's and Fuhai Chuang's plants, the PX operating rate at home and abroad is expected to rise. Although the PX fundamentals have weakened and the floating price of near - month PX has softened, the low inventory provides support to PXN [1]. - For PTA, the spot basis of the main contract was - 49 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton), the spot processing fee was 171 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the futures market was 348 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton). Due to the less - than - expected maintenance of Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton PTA plant, the de - stocking amplitude of the PTA balance sheet in September will narrow. The demand recovery is limited, and the polyester operating rate may not increase as expected [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 90.3% (a month - on - month increase of 0.3%). There are signs of demand recovery, but the order connection this week is insufficient. The weaving and texturing loads have declined. The polyester operating rate is expected to remain stable and continue to rise in the short term [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit was 91 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 19 yuan/ton). The operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber has increased, the downstream situation has improved, and inventory is being depleted. However, there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment due to falling raw material prices [2]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 377 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14 yuan/ton). The fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. The industry plans to maintain a 20% production cut in September, and the increase in the operating rate is expected to be limited. The inventory pressure has decreased, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The report presents the trends of TA's main contract, basis, and inter - period spreads; PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spreads; PTA's East China spot basis; and the basis of 1.56D * 38mm semi - bright natural white staple fiber [9][10][12]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes the toluene spread between the US and Asia, the spread between South Korea's FOB toluene and Japan's CFR naphtha, and PTA export profit [26][28]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - It displays the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][34]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, the total PTA warehouse receipts plus forecasts, PTA warehouse inventory, PX warehouse inventory, and PF warehouse inventory [37][40][41]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - It presents the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, the inventory days of filament DTY, FDY, and POY factories, the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the profits of filament FDY and POY [49][51][60]. 7. PF Detailed Data - It includes the operating rate of polyester staple fiber, the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, the operating rate of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the spread between raw and recycled 1.4D polyester staple fibers, the operating rates of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, the production profit of pure polyester yarn, the processing fee of polyester - cotton yarn, and the available inventory days of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn factories [71][80][84]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report shows the polyester bottle chip load, the inventory days of bottle chip factories, the spot and export processing fees of bottle chips, the export profit of bottle chips, the spread between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and the monthly spreads of bottle chips [90][92][94].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) rebounded due to the rebound of coking coal prices and the poor restart of overseas Saudi Arabian plants. The supply is in an increasing trend, but the restart of overseas plants is not smooth, and the increase of port inventory is less than expected. Under low inventory, attention should be paid to cost changes [1][3] - In terms of overall fundamentals, the domestic supply load of ethylene glycol synthesis gas has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production units are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the supply of long - distance goods is expected to gradually return to normal. In July, the terminal replenished inventory, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term. In early August, there will be a small inventory build - up, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (a change of +15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.34%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,493 yuan/ton (a change of +33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.74%), and the East China spot basis of EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 80 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was - 11 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - In July, the terminal replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 51.6 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 42.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.3 tons, lower than the planned value. The port inventory decreased slightly last week. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 13.8 tons, and it is expected that the inventory at the main ports will increase this week [1] - The overall balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up at the beginning of August, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of PX is expected to increase, with the balance sheet shifting from destocking to balance, but it remains in a low - inventory state. The PTA spot processing fee is at a low level, and it is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The demand side has not significantly improved, and the improvement still awaits the arrival of seasonal peak - season orders [1][2]. - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is taken on PX/PTA/PF/PR. There are suggestions for cross - variety and cross - period trading, such as narrowing the PTA processing fee at high prices, increasing the PR processing fee at low prices, and conducting reverse spreads for PTA2509 - 2601 and PF2509 - 2511 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - TA main - contract spot basis is - 19 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 4 yuan/ton), PTA spot processing fee is 111 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 34 yuan/ton), and the main - contract on - paper processing fee is 370 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 2 yuan/ton) [2]. - The PXN of PX is 253 dollars/ton (a month - on - month change of + 11.38 dollars/ton) [1]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - PX processing fee PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR; PTA spot processing fee; South Korea's xylene isomerization profit; South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit are all analyzed in the report [6][7]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Analyzed are the toluene US - Asia spread: FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [7]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Recent commissioning of multiple reforming units and restart of some PX units have led to a gradual recovery of supply. China's PX load is expected to recover successively, and the supply of PX is expected to increase [1]. - Short - term PTA maintenance has improved supply - demand, but mainstream suppliers' active sales have suppressed prices [2]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts has led to abundant liquid supply [2]. - The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to balance, but it remains in a low - inventory state [1]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Polyester operating rate is 88.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%). In late July, terminal weaving concentrated on replenishing raw materials, significantly reducing filament inventory pressure. Short - term polyester load remains firm [2]. - Short - fiber factories have different pressures in different product types, with cotton - type pressure being acceptable, while hollow and low - melting - point types face greater pressure and have slightly reduced production [2]. - For bottle chips, the maintenance plans of several large manufacturers have been gradually implemented, and the load is expected to remain stable in the short term [2][3]. 7. PF Detailed Data - PF spot production profit is 122 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton). PF demand - side orders are weak, inventory remains high, and the willingness to hold goods is low under the drag of downstream production cuts. The near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts [3]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 443 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 10 yuan/ton). After the maintenance plans of several large manufacturers are completed, there are no restart plans in August. The bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for fluctuations after repair [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton or -0.09% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton or -0.12% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$79/ton (down $3/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton month-on-month). The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons (down 7.7 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons (down 3.1 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, with low arrivals and significant inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 15 tons, and inventory may rise again [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Domestically, the supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure shows a benign inventory reduction, but the circulating spot will be supplemented after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Overseas, recent restarts of overseas plants indicate a loose supply, with concentrated arrivals in early July. The demand is currently strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers plan to conduct maintenance in early July, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is neutral. With increasing supply and decreasing demand, it shows a short - term weak performance, but the downside is limited. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$79/ton, and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific content about international price difference is provided in the text. 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - No specific content about downstream sales, production, and operating rate is provided in the text. 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15 tons [1].