| 第一部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 一、PX 海内外开工高位，检修季即将来临 | 3 | | | 二、TA 产能周期拐点，格局预期改善 | 5 | | | 三、乙二醇连续累库，3 月负荷预计下调 | 7 | | | 四、聚酯需求温和恢复，金三银四预期仍在 | 9 | | 第二部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 12 | | 免责声明 | | 14 | 聚酯产业链 2 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 聚酯研发报告 成本支撑增强，格局预期改善 【行情回顾】 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：温健翔 电 话：17660221204 邮 箱： wenjianxiang_qh@chinastock.com .cn 期货从业资格证号：F03118724 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022792 作者承诺 PX 行业利润带来了海内外的高开工，近两个月PX-MX 价差维持在 160-190 美元/吨，同比去年表现较好，PXN 目前较 1 月高点有所回落，但依然维持在300 美元/吨上方，亚洲 PX 负荷接连升高，2 月截至 26 日，国内 PX 装置负荷在 92.4 ...

化工日报 | 2026-02-04 长丝价格坚挺，产销维持低位 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，近期仍围绕伊朗局势波动。周一原油大幅下跌，地缘溢价回吐，Brent油价从上月末的70美元/桶附近下跌 至65~66美元/桶附近。上周末美伊释放出进行和谈的信号，同时伊朗官员表示，有关伊朗革命卫队计划在霍尔木兹 海峡举行军事演习的媒体报道是错误的，显示出地缘风险有降温信号。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN310美元/吨(环比变动-6.88美元/吨）。近期PX基本面未有明显变动，实货浮动价略有反 弹，PXN在近端累库下回撤。近期PX效益提升带来供应增加预期，另外内外盘套利会带来更多进口，同时需求端 检修计划陆续兑现，现实基本面偏弱。但PX中期预期依然较好，利润修复会带来PX二季度检修计划取消或推迟的 逻辑难证实，关注PX检修兑现和进口情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -68元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+3元/吨），PTA现货加工费376元/吨（环比变动-48元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费423元/吨（环比变动+21元/吨），基本面方面，聚酯工厂春节减产计划陆续兑现，PTA近端供 需趋累。中长期随着产能集中投放周期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Cost side: Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil has rebounded. Although the downward pressure on oil prices is still significant in Q1 next year, recent factors such as overseas holidays and commodity index fund rebalancing at the beginning of the year may cause disturbances to the market. The PXN of PX has increased significantly, and the load can be effectively maintained. The contango has strengthened recently, and the outlook for Q2 next year is good. The gasoline cracking spread has not improved significantly, but the US aromatics stockpiling has started [1]. - TA: The basis of the spot market has gradually strengthened. The December balance sheet shows inventory reduction, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January. In the long run, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [2]. - Demand: The polyester开工率 is 91.1% (down 0.1% month - on - month). The weaving load is accelerating its decline. It is expected that the starting rate will further decline in mid - December. The polyester load is expected to remain around 91% in the short term and is expected to decline around January [2]. - PF: The spot production profit is 90 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/ton month - on - month). The fundamentals have not changed much, but the processing margin is facing compression. The demand side shows average sales [3]. - PR: The spot processing fee is 476 yuan/ton (down 43 yuan/ton month - on - month). The processing range has been compressed. The load has rebounded as the inventory has decreased. The supply may increase in the future, and the short - term processing range is expected to be limited [3]. - Strategy: Be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR, but be vigilant against the risk of price pull - back due to capital reduction. For PX/PTA/PF/PR, pay attention to the change in polyester load. For PTA, conduct a 5 - 9 contango arbitrage [4][5]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][24] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Include China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [30][33][37] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom starting rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing starting rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing starting rate [50][52][61] PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn starting rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn starting rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][74][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][95][96]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and moderately bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR. For the 01 contract, the upside potential may be limited, and it is recommended to focus on the 05 contract in the medium to long term [3]. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a state of seasonal weakening in demand and is oscillating. The cost side, with Brent oil prices ranging from $60 - $65 per barrel, is affected by the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the situation in Venezuela. Market sentiment is wait - and - see, and oil prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. In the PX market, PXN has expanded to $286 per ton this week, and although some factory reforming operations may fluctuate, PX load can still be effectively maintained. For PTA, with many near - term maintenance plans and increased export demand, there is a slight reduction in inventory and a rebound in the basis. In the medium to long term, after the end of the concentrated capacity release cycle, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. In the demand aspect, the polyester operating rate is 91.8% (up 0.3% month - on - month), but the weaving load has declined, and it is expected that the operating rate will further decline from late December. For PF, the production profit is $193 per ton (down $1 per ton month - on - month), with high load and low inventory. For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is $490 per ton (up $27 per ton month - on - month), and due to the off - season demand and high social inventory, the processing fee is expected to oscillate [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - Relevant figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][10]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The relevant figures are the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [26][29][30]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [34][37][38]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, and filament profit [46][48][57]. 7. PF Detailed Data - The figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][71][82]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Relevant figures are polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][94][97].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of crude oil shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, with overall volatile movement. The supply-side OPEC+ maintains the production increase plan, and the impact of the increase is gradually emerging, with signs of weakening oil prices. However, the improvement in macro sentiment brought about by the peak demand season and the trade agreement between the US, Japan, and South Korea, as well as geopolitical factors, provide support for the downside of oil prices [1] - In the PX market, the PXN was $294/ton in the previous trading session (a month-on-month change of +$13.63/ton). Recently, the Asian PX load has remained basically stable, with little change in the fundamentals. The market mainly trades on macro sentiment. PX continues to have a low inventory pattern, but the spot floating price remains stable in the absence of more positive factors. Considering the rigid demand procurement of PX by new PTA plants, there is support for the downside of PXN. Attention should be paid to macro and crude oil trends [1] - In the TA market, the spot basis of the TA main contract is -7 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +1 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 195 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +30 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures market is 384 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +2 yuan/ton). With the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving factories, the inventory pressure of filament factories has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the basic supply and demand of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [1] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.7% (a month-on-month increase of 0.4%). Last week, driven by the price increase effect, terminal weaving factories concentrated on replenishing raw materials, and the inventory of filament factories decreased significantly. The operating loads of weaving and texturing, as well as filament and staple fiber, rebounded slightly. The polyester load remains strong in the short term. The pressure on staple fiber factories for cotton-type products is acceptable, while the pressure on hollow and low-melting products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. Attention should be paid to when demand will pick up in the future [2] - For PF, the spot production profit is 114 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 78 yuan/ton). The demand side of PF has weak orders and high inventory. Affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, the willingness to hold PF is low. The near-month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [2] - For PR, the spot processing fee for bottle chips is 392 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +27 yuan/ton). The maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been completed, and it is expected that the load of bottle chips will remain stable in the short term. After the repair of the spot processing fee for bottle chips, it is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for oscillation [2] - In terms of strategies, for unilateral trading, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. Attention should be paid to the changes in the China-US negotiation tariff policy from July 27 - 30 and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month. For PX, several PX plants are under maintenance recently, and the negotiation of the PX floating price remains stable, with the overall inventory still at a low level. In addition, a new 3.2 million-ton PTA plant has been put into operation recently, and the short-term polyester load is strong, so it is expected that PXN will have support. For TA, with the concentrated replenishment of terminal weaving factories, the inventory of filament factories has decreased significantly, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the fundamentals of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment. For PF, it is affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, and the overall willingness to hold is low. The near-month contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts. For PR, the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been implemented, and it is expected that the spot processing fee for bottle chips will return to the range for oscillation after repair. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in raw material prices. For cross-variety trading, short the PTA processing fee at high prices. There is no recommendation for cross-period trading [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][10] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Figures include the toluene US-Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating loads in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures cover the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, staple fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][50][59][62][64] Detailed PF Data - Figures show the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, regenerated cotton-type staple fiber load, original-regenerated spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester-cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester-cotton yarn processing fee [70][73][80][81][86] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures include the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - regenerated 3A-grade white bottle chip spread, bottle chip next-month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next-next-month spread (next-next month - base month) [88][90][99][102]