1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cost support of the polyester industry chain is strengthening, and the pattern is expected to improve [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PX: High Domestic and Overseas Operation Rates, Maintenance Season Approaching - From 2023 - 2025, there was no new PX capacity put into production for three consecutive years. In 2026, new PX capacity is limited, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. If the 300 - million - ton PX plant of Yulong Petrochemical is successfully launched in the second half of the year, PX capacity will reach 48.94 million tons [11] - PX industry profits have led to high domestic and overseas operation rates. In the past two months, the PX - MX spread has been maintained at $160 - 190 per ton, performing better than last year. As of February 26, the domestic PX plant operation rate was 92.4%, and the Asian PX operation rate was 84.9%, higher than the same period last year [11] - Entering March, with the start of the traditional maintenance season, PX plant maintenance at home and abroad will gradually increase, and the PX supply pressure is expected to ease. The second quarter will see a de - stocking pattern for PX [11] 3.2 TA: Inflection Point of the Capacity Cycle, Pattern Expected to Improve - With the end of the industry's capacity expansion, in 2025, a total of 8.7 million tons of new PTA capacity was added. As of now, the PTA capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 92.09 million tons. In 2026, there will be a vacuum period for PTA production. The growth rate of downstream polyester capacity continues to slow down, with an expected new capacity of 3.76 million tons in 2026 and a capacity growth rate of 4.17% [23] - After two rounds of surges, the PTA processing margin has been repaired, with the forward contract at 400 - 500 yuan per ton. As of February 26, the PTA operation rate has rebounded to 76.6%, the same as last month. In March - May, PTA plant maintenance will be concentrated. With the restart of several plants, the de - stocking volume in March may be less than that of last year [27][29] - After the Spring Festival, PTA dock arrivals will increase significantly, and inventory has increased significantly. As of the 25th, the PTA social inventory was 2.56 million tons, a significant increase compared to before the festival. The TA basis is weak [29] 3.3 Ethylene Glycol: Continuous Inventory Accumulation, Expected Load Reduction in March - As of the 24th, the MEG port inventory in some major ports in East China was about 982,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,000 tons. The port inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the coal port inventory is piling up, with the coal price at the origin weakening. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol are both weak [36] - In March, some ethylene glycol plants will undergo maintenance. Although the ethylene glycol supply - demand structure will improve month - on - month, the ethylene glycol production capacity will expand significantly in 2026, and the inventory has been continuously accumulating. The ethylene glycol load is expected to be reduced in March [37] 3.4 Polyester Demand: Moderate Recovery, Expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" Remain - In February, approaching the Spring Festival, the polyester load decreased. After the festival, the market remains optimistic about the traditional peak season. The polyester bottle - chip processing margin has widened, the short - fiber operation rate remains high, and the long - fiber processing margin has changed little [43] - Some short - fiber plants plan to start maintenance from late January to early February, and most large - scale short - fiber plants will start operation at the end of February. Entering March, the short - fiber load will increase rapidly. If the US tariffs are reduced, it will be good for the textile and clothing industries in Asian countries [43][46] - Some bottle - chip plants have carried out maintenance, and the market spot supply has decreased. In the second and third quarters, as the downstream enters the procurement and consumption peak season, the social inventory is expected to decline significantly [46] 3.5 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In March, with the start of the traditional maintenance season, the PX supply pressure is expected to ease, and the second quarter will see a de - stocking pattern. PTA inventory has increased significantly after the festival, and the basis is weak. March - May will see concentrated PTA plant maintenance, and the de - stocking volume in March may be less than that of last year [59] - The ethylene glycol supply - demand structure will improve month - on - month, but the production capacity will expand significantly in 2026, and the inventory has been continuously accumulating. The ethylene glycol load is expected to be reduced in March [60] - Strategy recommendations: For single - side trading, go long on PX and TA on dips; ethylene glycol will fluctuate. For arbitrage, go long on PX and TA and short ethylene glycol, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity for ethylene glycol and shrink the TA processing margin on rallies. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost side: Recently, it has been fluctuating around the Iran situation. On Monday, crude oil prices dropped significantly, with the geopolitical premium being reversed. Brent oil prices fell from around $70 per barrel at the end of last month to around $65 - $66 per barrel. There are signs of a cooling of geopolitical risks [1]. - PX: The PXN was $310 per ton in the previous trading session (a month - on - month change of -$6.88 per ton). The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the medium - term outlook is good. Attention should be paid to PX maintenance and import conditions [1]. - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is -68 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 376 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of -48 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's disk is 423 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +21 yuan/ton). In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [2]. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 84.2% (a month - on - month decrease of 2.0%). The weaving load has been accelerating its decline, and downstream enterprises will start to have concentrated holidays around the end of January. Polyester load is accelerating its decline, and the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being gradually implemented [2]. - PF: The spot production profit is 37 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 41 yuan/ton). Demand is weak before the Spring Festival, and the load is gradually declining [2]. - PR: The spot processing fee for bottle chips is 619 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +35 yuan/ton). The Spring Festival maintenance plans of polyester bottle chip factories are being gradually implemented, inventory reduction before the Spring Festival is smooth, and the processing fee for polyester bottle chips has rebounded [2]. - Strategy: For PX/PTA/PF/PR, it is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see in the short term and go long on dips for hedging in the long term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][21] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [26][29][31] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operating rate [46][48][56] PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory in - house inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory in - house inventory available days [71][76][84] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [88][90][96]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Cost side: Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil has rebounded. Although the downward pressure on oil prices is still significant in Q1 next year, recent factors such as overseas holidays and commodity index fund rebalancing at the beginning of the year may cause disturbances to the market. The PXN of PX has increased significantly, and the load can be effectively maintained. The contango has strengthened recently, and the outlook for Q2 next year is good. The gasoline cracking spread has not improved significantly, but the US aromatics stockpiling has started [1]. - TA: The basis of the spot market has gradually strengthened. The December balance sheet shows inventory reduction, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January. In the long run, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [2]. - Demand: The polyester开工率 is 91.1% (down 0.1% month - on - month). The weaving load is accelerating its decline. It is expected that the starting rate will further decline in mid - December. The polyester load is expected to remain around 91% in the short term and is expected to decline around January [2]. - PF: The spot production profit is 90 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/ton month - on - month). The fundamentals have not changed much, but the processing margin is facing compression. The demand side shows average sales [3]. - PR: The spot processing fee is 476 yuan/ton (down 43 yuan/ton month - on - month). The processing range has been compressed. The load has rebounded as the inventory has decreased. The supply may increase in the future, and the short - term processing range is expected to be limited [3]. - Strategy: Be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR, but be vigilant against the risk of price pull - back due to capital reduction. For PX/PTA/PF/PR, pay attention to the change in polyester load. For PTA, conduct a 5 - 9 contango arbitrage [4][5]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][24] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Include China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [30][33][37] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom starting rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing starting rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing starting rate [50][52][61] PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn starting rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn starting rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][74][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][95][96]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and moderately bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR. For the 01 contract, the upside potential may be limited, and it is recommended to focus on the 05 contract in the medium to long term [3]. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a state of seasonal weakening in demand and is oscillating. The cost side, with Brent oil prices ranging from $60 - $65 per barrel, is affected by the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the situation in Venezuela. Market sentiment is wait - and - see, and oil prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. In the PX market, PXN has expanded to $286 per ton this week, and although some factory reforming operations may fluctuate, PX load can still be effectively maintained. For PTA, with many near - term maintenance plans and increased export demand, there is a slight reduction in inventory and a rebound in the basis. In the medium to long term, after the end of the concentrated capacity release cycle, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. In the demand aspect, the polyester operating rate is 91.8% (up 0.3% month - on - month), but the weaving load has declined, and it is expected that the operating rate will further decline from late December. For PF, the production profit is $193 per ton (down $1 per ton month - on - month), with high load and low inventory. For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is $490 per ton (up $27 per ton month - on - month), and due to the off - season demand and high social inventory, the processing fee is expected to oscillate [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - Relevant figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][10]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The relevant figures are the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [26][29][30]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [34][37][38]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, and filament profit [46][48][57]. 7. PF Detailed Data - The figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][71][82]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Relevant figures are polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][94][97].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of crude oil shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, with overall volatile movement. The supply-side OPEC+ maintains the production increase plan, and the impact of the increase is gradually emerging, with signs of weakening oil prices. However, the improvement in macro sentiment brought about by the peak demand season and the trade agreement between the US, Japan, and South Korea, as well as geopolitical factors, provide support for the downside of oil prices [1] - In the PX market, the PXN was $294/ton in the previous trading session (a month-on-month change of +$13.63/ton). Recently, the Asian PX load has remained basically stable, with little change in the fundamentals. The market mainly trades on macro sentiment. PX continues to have a low inventory pattern, but the spot floating price remains stable in the absence of more positive factors. Considering the rigid demand procurement of PX by new PTA plants, there is support for the downside of PXN. Attention should be paid to macro and crude oil trends [1] - In the TA market, the spot basis of the TA main contract is -7 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +1 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 195 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +30 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures market is 384 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +2 yuan/ton). With the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving factories, the inventory pressure of filament factories has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the basic supply and demand of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [1] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.7% (a month-on-month increase of 0.4%). Last week, driven by the price increase effect, terminal weaving factories concentrated on replenishing raw materials, and the inventory of filament factories decreased significantly. The operating loads of weaving and texturing, as well as filament and staple fiber, rebounded slightly. The polyester load remains strong in the short term. The pressure on staple fiber factories for cotton-type products is acceptable, while the pressure on hollow and low-melting products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. Attention should be paid to when demand will pick up in the future [2] - For PF, the spot production profit is 114 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 78 yuan/ton). The demand side of PF has weak orders and high inventory. Affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, the willingness to hold PF is low. The near-month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [2] - For PR, the spot processing fee for bottle chips is 392 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +27 yuan/ton). The maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been completed, and it is expected that the load of bottle chips will remain stable in the short term. After the repair of the spot processing fee for bottle chips, it is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for oscillation [2] - In terms of strategies, for unilateral trading, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. Attention should be paid to the changes in the China-US negotiation tariff policy from July 27 - 30 and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month. For PX, several PX plants are under maintenance recently, and the negotiation of the PX floating price remains stable, with the overall inventory still at a low level. In addition, a new 3.2 million-ton PTA plant has been put into operation recently, and the short-term polyester load is strong, so it is expected that PXN will have support. For TA, with the concentrated replenishment of terminal weaving factories, the inventory of filament factories has decreased significantly, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the fundamentals of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment. For PF, it is affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, and the overall willingness to hold is low. The near-month contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts. For PR, the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been implemented, and it is expected that the spot processing fee for bottle chips will return to the range for oscillation after repair. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in raw material prices. For cross-variety trading, short the PTA processing fee at high prices. There is no recommendation for cross-period trading [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][10] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Figures include the toluene US-Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating loads in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures cover the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, staple fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][50][59][62][64] Detailed PF Data - Figures show the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, regenerated cotton-type staple fiber load, original-regenerated spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester-cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester-cotton yarn processing fee [70][73][80][81][86] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures include the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - regenerated 3A-grade white bottle chip spread, bottle chip next-month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next-next-month spread (next-next month - base month) [88][90][99][102]