化工日报 | 2025-12-26 原料快速上涨，聚酯负荷下降 市场要闻与数据 至本周四，初步核算国内大陆地区聚酯负荷在89.7%附近，较上周下降1.4% 市场分析 成本端，地缘冲突升温下原油有所反弹，委内瑞拉成为短期的市场焦点，但明年Q1需求淡季，油价的下行压力依 然较大，不过近期由于海外节假日以及年初的商品指数基金调仓，流动性可能对阶段性行情产生扰动。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN361美元/吨(环比变动+7.00美元/吨）。PX装置平稳运行。在明年上半年的良好预期下， PXN大幅上涨。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效维持。近期 在PX交割逻辑支撑下月差明显走强，明年二季度PX检修较多，远端预期较好，同时聚酯开工坚挺下PXN有支撑； 调油方面，汽油裂解无明显起色，但近期美国芳烃备货启动，关注资金动向以及下游聚酯负荷变动。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -13元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+6元/吨），PTA现货加工费234元/吨（环比变动+39元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费328元/吨（环比变动+8元/吨），近期下游原料库存降至低位，价格低位聚醋工厂的补货需求大 幅 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-09 需求季节性走弱，市场震荡运行 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，Brent油价维持60~65美元/桶运行，聚焦于俄乌和谈进展，此外委内瑞拉局势也传递出不确定性。市场情 绪观望，油价维持震荡拉锯节奏。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN275美元/吨(环比变动-10.75美元/吨）。PX装置平稳运行。在明年上半年的良好预期下， 周内PXN走扩至286美元/吨。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效 维持。聚酯开工支撑下PXN有支撑，但远期预期下估值当前已处于季节性中高位水平。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -30元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+2元/吨），PTA现货加工费161元/吨（环比变动-35元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费266元/吨（环比变动-13元/吨），近端检修计划较多，且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求，聚酯 负荷支撑下，PTA小幅去库，基差反弹。中长期集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.8%（环比+0.3%），近期织造负荷有所下滑，11月底后内贸订单开始加速转弱，坯布库存 也开始加速累积，预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of crude oil shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, with overall volatile movement. The supply-side OPEC+ maintains the production increase plan, and the impact of the increase is gradually emerging, with signs of weakening oil prices. However, the improvement in macro sentiment brought about by the peak demand season and the trade agreement between the US, Japan, and South Korea, as well as geopolitical factors, provide support for the downside of oil prices [1] - In the PX market, the PXN was $294/ton in the previous trading session (a month-on-month change of +$13.63/ton). Recently, the Asian PX load has remained basically stable, with little change in the fundamentals. The market mainly trades on macro sentiment. PX continues to have a low inventory pattern, but the spot floating price remains stable in the absence of more positive factors. Considering the rigid demand procurement of PX by new PTA plants, there is support for the downside of PXN. Attention should be paid to macro and crude oil trends [1] - In the TA market, the spot basis of the TA main contract is -7 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +1 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 195 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +30 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures market is 384 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +2 yuan/ton). With the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving factories, the inventory pressure of filament factories has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the basic supply and demand of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [1] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.7% (a month-on-month increase of 0.4%). Last week, driven by the price increase effect, terminal weaving factories concentrated on replenishing raw materials, and the inventory of filament factories decreased significantly. The operating loads of weaving and texturing, as well as filament and staple fiber, rebounded slightly. The polyester load remains strong in the short term. The pressure on staple fiber factories for cotton-type products is acceptable, while the pressure on hollow and low-melting products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. Attention should be paid to when demand will pick up in the future [2] - For PF, the spot production profit is 114 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 78 yuan/ton). The demand side of PF has weak orders and high inventory. Affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, the willingness to hold PF is low. The near-month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [2] - For PR, the spot processing fee for bottle chips is 392 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +27 yuan/ton). The maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been completed, and it is expected that the load of bottle chips will remain stable in the short term. After the repair of the spot processing fee for bottle chips, it is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for oscillation [2] - In terms of strategies, for unilateral trading, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. Attention should be paid to the changes in the China-US negotiation tariff policy from July 27 - 30 and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month. For PX, several PX plants are under maintenance recently, and the negotiation of the PX floating price remains stable, with the overall inventory still at a low level. In addition, a new 3.2 million-ton PTA plant has been put into operation recently, and the short-term polyester load is strong, so it is expected that PXN will have support. For TA, with the concentrated replenishment of terminal weaving factories, the inventory of filament factories has decreased significantly, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the fundamentals of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment. For PF, it is affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, and the overall willingness to hold is low. The near-month contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts. For PR, the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been implemented, and it is expected that the spot processing fee for bottle chips will return to the range for oscillation after repair. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in raw material prices. For cross-variety trading, short the PTA processing fee at high prices. There is no recommendation for cross-period trading [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][10] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Figures include the toluene US-Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating loads in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures cover the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, staple fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][50][59][62][64] Detailed PF Data - Figures show the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, regenerated cotton-type staple fiber load, original-regenerated spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester-cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester-cotton yarn processing fee [70][73][80][81][86] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures include the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - regenerated 3A-grade white bottle chip spread, bottle chip next-month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next-next-month spread (next-next month - base month) [88][90][99][102]