Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth in tourism and cultural activities during the New Year period, alongside the continuation of price increases in the technology sector, indicating a mixed performance in the macroeconomic landscape [3]. Group 1: Tourism and Cultural Activities - The New Year holiday saw a significant increase in travel demand, with an average daily cross-regional flow of 198 million people, up 19.5% year-on-year, and an average daily entry-exit figure of 2.205 million, up 28.6% year-on-year [4]. - Domestic tourism showed improvement, with average daily tourist numbers and revenue increasing by 5.2% and 6.3% respectively compared to the previous year, driven by enhanced service supply and flexible holiday arrangements [4]. - Shanghai Disneyland's congestion index rose by 128.8% year-on-year during the last week of 2025, indicating a surge in visitor numbers [4]. Group 2: Downstream Consumption - The price of live pigs increased by 3.9% as of December 28, driven by improved demand for New Year preparations [5]. - Real estate sales remain under pressure, with transaction volumes in 30 major cities down 26.0% year-on-year, and significant declines observed across first, second, and third-tier cities [5]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles decreased by 12% year-on-year during the last week of December 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the durable goods sector [5]. Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to thrive, with prices for DRAM memory chips increasing by 2.6% to 7.1% across different types as of January 2 [6]. - Chemical raw material prices showed mixed performance, with PX prices rising by 6.4% while PTA prices slightly declined [6]. - Industrial metal prices have continued to rise due to supply disruptions and expectations of interest rate cuts, with coal prices stabilizing at a 0.9% increase [6].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant improvement in the tourism and cultural sectors during the New Year holiday, with a notable increase in both domestic and international travel demand, with daily cross-regional personnel flow reaching 198 million, up 19.5% year-on-year [7][9] - The average daily inbound and outbound personnel during the New Year holiday reached 2.205 million, marking a 28.6% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery in inbound tourism due to optimized policies [7][9] - Domestic tourism saw a daily average of 47.33 million tourists and a revenue of 28.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% and 6.3% respectively, driven by improved service supply in popular destinations [9][10] Group 2 - The report notes a rise in pig prices, with the national average price for pigs increasing by 3.9% week-on-week, attributed to improved demand from New Year stocking [19] - Real estate sales continue to face challenges, with transaction volumes in 30 major cities down 26.0% year-on-year, and significant declines observed across first, second, and third-tier cities [14][15] - The retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 12% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the durable goods sector, with rising inventory levels among dealers [15][16] Group 3 - The electronic industry remains robust, with DRAM memory prices increasing by 2.6% to 7.1% across different types, driven by AI infrastructure investments [21][22] - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating a low-level oscillation in steel prices [23][27] - Chemical prices are mixed, with PX prices rising by 6.4%, while some other chemical prices have slightly declined, reflecting a tight supply-demand balance in the chemical industry [32][33] Group 4 - Coal prices have stabilized, with a week-on-week increase of 0.9%, and port inventories continuing to decline, suggesting increased downstream replenishment activity [36][37] - Industrial metal prices have continued to rise, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 2.5% and 1.9% respectively, driven by supply concerns and strong global demand expectations [38][39]

# The $\pi$-ray scattering [10pt] M. C. Gonzalez-Garcia, M. C. Gonzalez-Garcia, M. 12月31日，长鑫科技科创板IPO申请正式拿到上交所受理通知，要募295亿把钱砸进DRAM存储器的技术升级和产能建设里。最近刷到不少讨论，有人问"长 鑫要上市了，相关股票能买吗？"也有人说"看走势都涨了，是不是该追？"其实我想说——比起盯着K线猜涨跌，更该先看清"机构大资金到底有没有真的在 参与"。 毕竟这两年我见太多人栽在"感觉"上：以为涨高了要跌，结果卖飞；以为跌到底了要涨，结果抄在半山腰。今天就用两个真实情况，和大家聊聊"怎么用数 据代替感觉"。 去年二三季度有只股票，2个月翻了一倍，可每次创新高就开始调整，不少人怕"见顶"赶紧卖，结果卖了之后又涨。我朋友当时也买了这只，天天盯着K线 问"要不要跑？"后来我让他看这张图—— 看图1： 一、长鑫的机会，藏在"机构有没有行动"里 长鑫要上市的消息出来，不少机构说"产业链会受益"，但受益不等于"马上涨"。我有个同事上周追了某只关联股，结果买了就跌，慌得半夜问我"是不是踩 雷了？"我让他先去看"机构 ...

国产存储巨头长鑫科技IPO获受理，可以说是2025-2026存储大周期的明确信号。 虽然今天存储没有明确大涨，但是资金已经开始布局上游核心受益的半导体设备ETF（561980），连续四天净流入。 什么逻辑呢？ 长鑫科技IPO招股书显示，这次上市拟募集资金高达295亿元，计划重点投向"存储器晶圆制造量产线技术升级改造项目"和"DRAM存储器技术升级项目"。对 上游产业链而言，这意味着一轮确定性的设备采购潮即将开启。 2025年年初DeepSeek引爆的AI行情大家应该还历历在目，从GPT-4到千亿参数大模型，算力需求呈指数级增长，传统"存储墙"问题成为瓶颈。 目前场内主要半导体指数中，半导体设备ETF（561980）跟踪的中证半导，"设备"含量是比较高的，而且弹性也是同类最好的。 咱们复盘一下上一轮半导体周期，可以发现从2018年至今，中证半导的区间最大涨幅是几个主流半导体指数中最高的，最大回撤最低，而且2025年的年内涨 幅也是最高，绝对的弹性冠军。 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 2025 年 | 2018 年来 | 2018 年来 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

国产存储巨头长鑫科技IPO获受理，可以说是2025-2026存储大周期的明确信号。 虽然今天存储没有明确大涨，但是资金已经开始布局上游核心受益的半导体设备ETF（561980），连续四天净流入。 什么逻辑呢？ 今年以来存储芯片各个细分已经开启共振式涨价，而半导体设备作为芯片产业链的"卖铲人"，需求核心受益。严格来说，国产设备现在正处于一个历史罕见 的时间节点：不仅处于AI创新周期、产业库存周期、宏观政策周期（新五年），而且还有来自存储、先进逻辑、以及自身先进工艺等多方的国产替代需 求，确定性极强。 市场规模表现也是如此——国际半导体产业协会（SEMI）预计，2025年全球半导体制造设备总销售额将达到1330亿美元，同比增长13.7%，创历史新高。而 且增长态势有望延续到未来几年，2026年预计达1450亿美元，2027年将攀升至1560亿美元。 目前场内主要半导体指数中，半导体设备ETF（561980）跟踪的中证半导，"设备"含量是比较高的，而且弹性也是同类最好的。 咱们复盘一下上一轮半导体周期，可以发现从2018年至今，中证半导的区间最大涨幅是几个主流半导体指数中最高的，最大回撤最低，而且2025年的年内涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Changxin Technology's IPO application has been accepted, aiming to raise 29.5 billion yuan, marking a significant step for the company as it seeks to enhance its position in the DRAM market [2][4]. Group 1: IPO Details - Changxin Technology is the first company to apply for an IPO under the pre-review mechanism on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, designed to protect sensitive business information [3]. - The company plans to use 13 billion yuan for DRAM technology upgrades, 9 billion yuan for advanced research and development, and 7.5 billion yuan for manufacturing line upgrades [6][7]. Group 2: Company Overview - Changxin Technology operates under the IDM model, integrating chip design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sales [5]. - The company has no controlling shareholder, with the largest shareholder holding 21.67% of the shares [5]. Group 3: Market Position - As of Q2 2025, Changxin Technology holds a 3.97% share of the global DRAM market, ranking first in China and fourth globally [6]. - The company still lags behind major competitors like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which collectively hold over 90% of the market share [6]. Group 4: Financial Performance - From 2022 to mid-2025, Changxin Technology has accumulated losses of 40.857 billion yuan, despite rapid revenue growth [8][9]. - The company expects a revenue increase of 127.48% to 139.89% in 2025, with projected revenues between 55 billion and 58 billion yuan [9]. - The gross margin has been improving, reaching 5.02% in the first half of 2025, but remains significantly lower than its main competitors [10].

据上交所官网12月30日晚披露，位列中国第一、全球第四的DRAM厂商长鑫科技的科创板IPO申请已获受理，公司此次IPO拟融资295亿元。 【导读】长鑫科技科创板IPO申请获受理 不过，在市占率方面，目前长鑫科技与全球前三大存储芯片巨头——三星电子、SK海力士和美光科技的差距还比较大。2024年三星电子、SK海力士、美 光科技的市场占有率分别为40.35%、33.19%和20.73%，这三家公司合计占据全球90%以上的市场份额。 此次295亿元的融资中，130亿元将用于DRAM存储器技术升级项目，90亿元将用于动态随机存取存储器前瞻技术研究与开发项目，75亿元将用于存储器晶 圆制造量产线技术升级改造项目。 | 序 号 | 项目名称 | 项目投资总额 | 拟使用募集资 金金额 | 实施主体 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 存储器晶圆制造量产线技术升级改造项目 | 75.00 | 75.00 | 发行人子公司 | | 2 | DRAM存储器技术升级项目 | 180.00 | 130.00 | 发行人子公司 | | 3 | 动态随机存取存储器前瞻技术研究与开发 项目 | ...

Downstream Consumption - The tourism sector shows continued high activity, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index averaging 67%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.4% [7] - The Hainan tourism price index increased by 2.5% week-on-week, indicating a significant improvement in tourism activity due to the lifting of restrictions [7] - Real estate sales remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 30.5% in transaction area across 30 major cities, despite recent policy adjustments aimed at stimulating the market [9] Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to experience high demand driven by AI infrastructure investments, with DRAM prices for DDR4 and DDR5 increasing by 12.4% and 5.3% respectively [19] - PCB exports in November 2025 rose by 29.5% year-on-year, maintaining a high growth rate [19] - Manufacturing activity remains stable, with slight fluctuations in operating rates across various sectors, while chemical raw material prices have seen significant increases [25][34] Upstream Resources - Coal prices have continued to decline, with the Qinhuangdao port Q5500 coal price dropping by 4.4% week-on-week [39] - Industrial metal prices have accelerated upward, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 5.9% and 1.6% respectively [41] Logistics and Transportation - There is a weakening demand for freight logistics, with nationwide highway truck traffic and railway freight volume decreasing by 0.5% and 6.1% respectively [51] - Long-distance travel demand has also shown a marginal decline, with international flight operations down by 2.6% week-on-week [46]

Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing year-on-year growth in social retail sales for October, with a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year, down from 3.0% in September, primarily affected by high base effects and weak demand in the home appliance and real estate sectors [12][21] - The report highlights a general recovery in essential consumer goods, with significant improvements in categories such as grain and oil, food, tobacco, and clothing, while optional consumption shows mixed performance [21][22] Retail Sector Overview - The cumulative retail sales of social consumer goods from January to October reached 4,121.685 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [12] - In October, essential consumption categories saw an increase, with grain and oil food sales growing by 9.1%, while beverage sales turned positive at 7.1% [16][21] - The online retail sales of physical goods continued to rise, accounting for 25.2% of total retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [14] Information Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index experienced declines, while the DXI Index increased [2] - DRAM memory prices rose, and the production of integrated circuits saw an expanded year-on-year growth in October [2][8] Midstream Manufacturing Sector - Prices in the new energy supply chain generally increased, while the photovoltaic price index declined [5][7] - Sales of major engineering machinery companies in October showed a year-on-year growth slowdown [5][7] Consumer Demand Insights - Prices for fresh milk and sugar increased, while pork prices decreased [5][18] - The average ticket price for movies rose, and the ten-day average box office revenue increased significantly [5][19] Resource Sector Tracking - The average transaction volume of construction steel increased, and rebar prices rose [5][21] - Coal prices remained stable, while the inventory levels of coal and coke at major ports decreased [5][22] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The monetary market saw net injections, while the turnover rate and daily trading volume of A-shares declined [3][6] - The transaction area of commercial housing increased, but the year-on-year decline in housing completion area and sales expanded [3][6]

Core Insights - The demand for AI applications and inference computing power is surging, leading to a significant increase in the demand for high-performance storage chips, with DRAM spot prices rising by 9.8% month-on-month, continuing an accelerating upward trend [1][5] - The semiconductor sales in China increased by 15.0% year-on-year in September, indicating further improvement in growth rates and sustained high levels of prosperity in the semiconductor and electronics industries [1][5] Industry Performance - The electronic industry continues to show high prosperity, with improved export demand [2][3] - AI computing power demand is driving the electronic industry chain's prosperity, with tight supply and demand conditions for DRAM storage prices leading to continued price increases [3][5] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) has significantly increased month-on-month, reflecting improved expectations for export demand due to positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [3] Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales are struggling, with a 39.9% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities, and significant drops in first, second, and third-tier cities [4] - Durable goods consumption is under pressure, with a 9.0% year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger cars and a notable decrease in air conditioning production for both domestic and foreign markets [4] - Agricultural prices are showing signs of improvement, with live pig prices rising by 4.1% month-on-month due to better supply-demand dynamics [4] Technology & Manufacturing - The demand for high-performance storage chips is being driven by the surge in AI applications and inference computing power, with DRAM spot prices continuing to rise [5] - Construction demand remains weak, influenced by environmental regulations, leading to a tightening of supply in the steel industry and a rebound in steel prices [5] Upstream Resources - Coal prices remained stable month-on-month due to tight supply ahead of safety inspections, while industrial metal prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations [7] Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand is showing signs of recovery, with a 2.1% month-on-month increase in long-distance travel demand [9] - Port throughput has improved month-on-month, reflecting positive developments in export expectations [9]