长存长鑫新一轮扩产，供应链投资解读 20250924 摘要 美国禁令下，中国半导体设备国产替代加速，尤其在非光刻和检测设备 领域，国产化率逐步提高，缓解了产能扩张瓶颈，成熟逻辑、模拟、功 率等领域扩产或放缓，但先进制程和存储领域将加速。 中美贸易博弈导致芯片原产地认定，国内中芯国际、华虹等 Fab 厂受益 于订单回流，稼动率较高，表现优于其他地区，凸显国产替代在保障供 应链安全中的重要性。 国产替代和华为产业链是当前科技板块中相对低位且具投资潜力的领域， 尤其关注 3D 封装、先进制程、先进封装等，以及 AI 算力增长带来的市 场机会，如长江存储、长鑫存储、中芯国际等。 长存和长兴均在筹备 IPO，产能扩张温和但超年初预期，长存 FAB 3 将 在 2026 年进行层数升级和国产化率提高，Nan 产品层数将达 300 层以 上，国产化率预计达 60%-80%，利好供应设备厂商。 长存预计 2026 年二季度至三四月份分三阶段进行扩产招投标，总量约 5~6 万片，对应设备采购需求约 50~60 亿美金，刻蚀设备占比最大 （约 40%），薄膜沉积占 25%。 Q&A 长江存储和长鑫存储近期扩产的背景和原因是什么？ ...

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock markets showed an upward trend with the Dow Jones rising by 0.16%, Nasdaq increasing by 0.53%, and S&P 500 up by 0.32% [1] - Notable stock performances included Google A up by 2.01%, Amazon rising by 1.08%, and Apple, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms increasing by up to 0.57% [1] - Nvidia saw a decline of 0.79%, while Tesla dropped by 1.04% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US second-quarter GDP was revised upward to an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.3% [2] - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased slightly to 229,000, with continuing claims falling to 1.954 million, both below expectations [2] Group 3: Technology Developments - Musk's xAI launched a new programming model called Grok Code Fast 1, designed as a high-speed daily tool, currently available only via API [3] - OpenAI introduced GPT-Realtime, marking a significant advancement in AI agent capabilities for realistic conversations [4] Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Updates - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming September meeting [5] - The Swedish government announced the lifting of a ban on uranium mining, indicating a shift in energy policy [7] Group 5: Domestic Developments - The Chinese government is promoting the development of modern urban clusters and urban renewal projects [8] - The Ministry of Commerce announced continued anti-dumping duties on phenol imports from the US, EU, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand [8] - The National Bureau of Statistics plans to introduce several industrial policies, including data property rights [8] Group 6: Industry Insights - The offshore RMB exchange rate surged approximately 300 points, surpassing 7.12 yuan for the first time since November 6, 2024, driven by a weakening US dollar index and domestic policy support [12] - Huawei's cloud computing CEO reported a nearly 250% year-on-year growth in overall computing power, with customers using Ascend AI cloud services increasing from 321 to 1,714 [12][13] - The robotics industry is seeing advancements with data transactions for training robots, highlighting the importance of data in developing robotic technologies [14][15] Group 7: Company Performance - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a revenue of $4.456 billion for the first half of the year, a 22% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of $320 million, up 35.6% [17] - Other companies like Tongfu Microelectronics and Zhongke Shuguang also reported significant profit increases, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.72% and 29.39%, respectively [18][20]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant market movements, particularly the strong performance of the chip sector represented by Cambrian Technology, which has seen a dramatic increase in stock price and trading volume [2][3] - Cambrian Technology's stock surged by 15.73% to close at 1587.91 yuan, marking a 196.81% increase since its low of 520 yuan on July 10, outperforming the sector and the overall market [2] - The trading volume for Cambrian Technology reached 316.5 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 86.51%, indicating high investor interest and activity [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the contrasting experiences of investors, where large-cap stocks like Cambrian Technology and Northern Rare Earth are attracting significant capital, while small-cap stocks are struggling with low trading volumes [3][5] - During the period from August 14 to August 27, only a small number of stocks saw gains, with most trading days showing a mixed performance, complicating investment strategies [3][4] - The ChiNext index also reflected a similar trend, with a high number of declining stocks on August 27, indicating a challenging environment for smaller companies [5][6] Group 3 - Financial analysts suggest that the current market structure is driven by technology sectors, with a focus on communication, electronics, and computing, while non-tech sectors are underperforming [8] - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on technology stocks, particularly in artificial intelligence and semiconductors, as the market adjusts [8][9] - The Huawei supply chain is highlighted as a key area for investment due to its significant role in domestic technology development and strong policy support [9]

Group 1 - Nanya Technology (688519) experienced a decline of 6.34% on August 27, closing at 68.68 yuan, with a turnover rate of 5.56% and a trading volume of 130,600 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 916 million yuan [1] - On August 27, the net outflow of main funds was 105 million yuan, accounting for 11.41% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net inflow of approximately 79 million yuan, representing 8.65% of the total transaction value [1] - Over the past five days, the net inflow of margin financing was 79.88 million yuan, indicating an increase in financing balance, while the net inflow of securities lending was 0.0, with an increase in securities lending balance [1] Group 2 - The top ten public funds holding Nanya Technology include Guoshou Anbao Smart Life Stock A, which holds 2.0508 million shares, remaining unchanged, and several funds that have newly entered the top ten holdings [1] - Guoshou Anbao Smart Life Stock A has a scale of 1.828 billion yuan, with a latest net value of 1.825, which increased by 0.83% on August 26, and has risen by 87.95% over the past year [2] - The top ten holdings of Guoshou Anbao Smart Life Stock A include Nanya Technology, which accounts for 4.23% of the fund's net value, with a holding of 205.08 million shares valued at 91.88 million yuan [3]

Market Overview - On August 26, the A-share market closed with a total of 92 stocks hitting the daily limit, with 71 stocks after excluding 21 ST stocks, and 28 stocks failed to close at the limit, resulting in an overall limit-up rate of 76.67% [1] Top Performing Stocks - Tianpu Co., Ltd. had the highest limit-up order volume with 38.25 million hands and a limit-up fund of 1.356 billion yuan [2][3] - Continuous limit-up days were noted for several stocks: - Garden Co., Ltd. with 7 consecutive limit-ups - ST Dongshi with 6 consecutive limit-ups - ST Suwu with 4 consecutive limit-ups - Tianpu Co., Ltd. with 3 consecutive limit-ups [2] Financial Performance Highlights - Cambridge Technology reported a net profit of 121 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 51.12% [3][4] - Nengke Technology achieved a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 18.75% year-on-year [4] - Boya Precision reported a net profit of 44 million yuan, marking a 61.26% increase year-on-year [5] Industry Trends - Companies in the computing power sector, such as Huasheng Tiancai, are providing services for new-generation AI computing power centers and supercomputing centers [6] - Zhongheng Electric focuses on providing energy products for computing power and communication networks, including green HVDC power systems for data centers [7] Huawei Supply Chain - Companies like Junyi Digital and Tuowei Information have strengthened their collaboration with Huawei, launching new solutions based on Open Harmony and IoT technology [7][8] - Tuowei Information is recognized as one of Huawei's first partners in the open-source Hongmeng ecosystem [8] Investment Activity - The top net purchases on the Dragon and Tiger list included Huasheng Tiancai, Liyi Intelligent Manufacturing, and Wantong Development, with significant net buying amounts [9] - Deep Stock Connect saw net purchases of Tuowei Information exceeding 272 million yuan and net purchases of Songer Co., Ltd. at 137 million yuan [9]

Market Dynamics - A-shares ended their continuous rise, showing a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.75% [2] - Over 2800 stocks rose, with a trading volume of 2.71 trillion yuan, although this was a decrease of over 460 billion yuan from the previous trading day, it still indicates a high level of activity [2] - Consumer electronics stocks were active, with companies like GoerTek hitting the daily limit, and the Huawei supply chain also performing well [2] Macro Policy - Shanghai has optimized its real estate policies, allowing eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the outer ring and increasing the personal housing provident fund loan limit, effective from August 26, 2025 [3] - Beijing recently lifted purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road, signaling a positive policy shift in major cities [3] - The Central Committee and State Council issued opinions on promoting green and low-carbon transformation, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors in the national carbon market by 2027 [3] Industry Trends - The National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 173 video game titles in August 2025, including 166 domestic and 7 imported games, marking a new monthly high for 2025 [5] - The summer box office for films has surpassed 11 billion yuan, with "Nanjing Photo Studio" leading at 2.7 billion yuan [6] Corporate Dynamics - Pinduoduo reported Q2 2025 revenue of 103.98 billion yuan, a 7% year-on-year increase, but net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders fell by 4% [7] - Muyuan Foods released its semi-annual report, achieving revenue of 76.46 billion yuan, a 34.46% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, up 1169.77% [7] - Huawei is set to launch a new AI SSD product on August 27, with its annual conference scheduled for September 18-20, 2025, in Shanghai [7]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations on August 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.75% [1] - Total trading volume reached 2.71 trillion CNY, a decrease of over 460 billion CNY compared to the previous day [1] Stock Performance - Out of 5426 stocks, 2804 rose, 90 hit the daily limit up, and 2470 fell [2][3] - The consumer electronics sector showed strong performance, with stocks like GoerTek hitting the daily limit up [3][5] Notable Gainers - Several stocks in the consumer electronics and technology sectors saw significant gains, including: - Haosheng Electronics up 12.12% at 23.49 CNY [4] - Heli Tai up 10.06% at 3.72 CNY [4] - GoerTek up 10.01% at 34.06 CNY [4] - The Huawei supply chain also strengthened, with stocks like Tuowei Information hitting the daily limit up [5] Agricultural Sector - The agriculture sector saw a rise, with Aonong Biological hitting the daily limit up [7] Decliners - The AI chip sector faced adjustments, with Chip Origin falling over 10% after announcing a share transfer price significantly lower than its closing price [8] - Innovative drug concept stocks declined, with Yuandong Biological down over 10% [9][10] Company-Specific News - Chunzong Technology experienced a sharp drop, hitting the limit down after reporting a 44.85% decline in revenue year-on-year for the first half of 2025, resulting in a net loss of 40.02 million CNY [10]

Market Overview - The market experienced a correction, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks seeing significant declines in indices after 2 PM [2] - On August 26, A-shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.75% [2] - Total trading volume reached 2.71 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 460 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2][3] Stock Performance - A total of 2,804 stocks rose, with 90 hitting the daily limit up, while 2,470 stocks fell [2][3] - The consumer electronics sector showed strong performance, with stocks like GoerTek hitting the daily limit up [4] - The Huawei supply chain also strengthened, with stocks such as Tuowei Information reaching the daily limit up [5] Notable Gainers - Significant gainers included: - Zhengyuan Wisdom: +20.02% [6] - Kaipu Cloud: +20.00% [6] - Aerospace Hongtu: +14.45% [6] - Tuowei Information: +10.00% [6] - The breeding sector saw a rise, with Aonong Biological hitting the daily limit up [7] - Gaming stocks also performed well, with Sanqi Interactive Entertainment reaching the daily limit up [7] Notable Losers - The AI chip sector faced adjustments, with Chip Origin falling over 10% after announcing a share transfer pricing significantly below its market price [9] - Other notable decliners included: - Yuandong Biological: -10.71% [10] - Sunshine Nuohuo: -9.88% [10] - Guangsheng Tang: -8.60% [10] - Chunzong Technology experienced a rapid decline, hitting the limit down after reporting a 44.85% year-on-year drop in revenue [11][13]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance across the three major indices, with significant activity in consumer electronics stocks, particularly with companies like GoerTek and others hitting the daily limit up [1] - The Huawei supply chain saw strong performance, with stocks like Tuowei Information also reaching the daily limit up [1] - The livestock sector rallied, with Aonong Biological hitting the limit up [1] - Gaming stocks rose during the day, with 37 Interactive Entertainment hitting the limit up [1] - The AI chip sector faced corrections, with Chipone Technology dropping over 10% [1] - The innovative drug concept declined, with Yuandong Biological also falling over 10% [1] - Overall, nearly 2800 stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing rose, with a total trading volume of 2.71 trillion, down over 460 billion from the previous day [1] Key Highlights Apple Supply Chain - The Apple supply chain saw significant gains, with stocks like Lingyi iTech, Dongni Electronics, and GoerTek hitting the daily limit up, while Luxshare Precision rose by 6% [4] - Reports indicate that Apple plans to launch major design revisions over the next three years, introducing thinner, foldable, and curved screen models, marking a first in iPhone history [4] - The iPhone 17 series is set for a major aesthetic overhaul, with a launch event scheduled for September 9, 2025, featuring four models with differentiated camera module layouts [4] Huawei Supply Chain - The Huawei supply chain also experienced a surge, with companies like Zhongdian Xilong, Chuanrun Co., and Tuowei Information hitting the daily limit up [7] - Huawei's subsidiary Huafeng Technology reported a record net profit of 151 million yuan for the first half of the year [7] - Huawei is set to launch a new AI SSD product on August 27, 2025, with the upcoming Huawei Connect 2025 conference scheduled for September 18-20, 2025, focusing on the company's smart industry strategy [7] AI SSD Development - The AI SSD is optimized for AI training and inference scenarios, featuring deep customizations for performance architecture, firmware algorithms, and interface protocols to meet the demands of large-scale parallel I/O and low-latency access [9] - The development of AI SSDs will drive demand for related industries, including DoB stacking technology and PCB manufacturing [9] - Huawei's advancements in AI SSDs may enhance the efficiency of computing resources, providing new insights for domestic computing development [9]

Group 1 - The enthusiasm for public fundraising has increased as the secondary market rebounds, with 16 public funds participating in fundraising projects exceeding 4.5 billion yuan in the last three months, and the highest project increase reaching 344% [1] - The demand for public fundraising is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions financing, as over 40% of disclosed projects this year are related to financing [1] - The top five sectors for net inflow include domestic software, military industry, semiconductors, large finance, and new energy vehicles, while the top five concepts include artificial intelligence, Huawei supply chain, Xiaomi concept stocks, domestic chips, and cloud computing data centers [1] Group 2 - New policy financial tools are being expedited for approval, with local governments holding meetings to capture policy dividends, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound in the second half of the year [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has lowered the initial public holding threshold for "A+H" issuers to 10% or a market value of 3 billion HKD, which is expected to encourage more A-share companies to list in Hong Kong [3] Group 3 - The government has included "Artificial Intelligence+" in its work report for 2024, with policies expected to be implemented soon, indicating a strong growth potential for the AI sector, particularly in hardware [5] - The next generation of large models, such as GPT-5, is anticipated to be a key variable in the AI industry's future, with expectations of significant improvements in performance and cost-effectiveness [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a historical high, with major indices also hitting yearly peaks, indicating a clear acceleration in market activity, although regulatory scrutiny remains [7] - The market is entering a new acceleration phase, with signs of increased participation from various funds, particularly bank wealth management and public funds, expected to be significant contributors in the second half of the year [7]