Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical sector (pure benzene) is "oscillating" [2] Core View of the Report - Amidst continuous global geopolitical disturbances, crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand-side operating rates improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will experience wide fluctuations, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5450 - 5630 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Monday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 dropped by 12 yuan to 5523 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5420 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 85), and in Shandong, it was 5315 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 92). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 1325 lots to 20300 lots, and short positions increased by 698 lots to 25500 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.4%. The 2025 November import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a month-on-month decline of 7.48% and a year-on-year increase of 5.93%. The cumulative import volume was 5.071144069 million tons, a 33.61% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the Jiangsu pure benzene port samples was 324,000 tons, up 6000 tons from the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.89%. It was 149,700 tons higher than the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the estimated arrivals were about 36,000 tons, and the pickups were about 30,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%; the phenol operating rate was 85%, a month-on-month increase of 5%; the caprolactam operating rate was 74.2%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%; the aniline operating rate was 61.3%, a month-on-month increase of 1.5%; the adipic acid operating rate was 67.6%, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Caprolactam factories started self-disciplinary production cuts, and there was an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into operation [2] - International Oil Prices: Due to the ongoing instability in the Iranian situation and potential supply risks, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract increased by 0.38 dollars/barrel to 59.50 dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 0.64%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract increased by 0.53 dollars/barrel to 63.87 dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 0.84%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 9.9 to 436.8 yuan/barrel, and in the night session, it rose 0.2 to 437 yuan/barrel [2] - Other News: On January 11th, it was reported that the US District of Columbia Federal Prosecutor's Office had launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, regarding the renovation project of the Fed's Washington headquarters building and whether Powell lied to Congress about the project's scope [2] Market Logic - With continuous global geopolitical disturbances, crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand-side operating rates improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will experience wide fluctuations, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5450 - 5630 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Reduce long positions and wait and see [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically for bottle chips) is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - With continuous global geopolitical disturbances, the crude oil price has stabilized and rebounded. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will oscillate following the raw materials, with the reference range for the main contract PR2603 being 5980 - 6200 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to reduce long - positions and wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Market Conditions - On the night of Monday, the main price of bottle chips fell by 46 yuan to 6042 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips was 6110 yuan/ton (+80), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6150 yuan/ton (+70). Long - position holdings increased by 3355 lots to 66,500 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 2840 lots to 68,500 lots [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, the domestic polyester bottle chip production this week was 334,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 72.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5592 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 9900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons [1] - In December 2025, the output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [1] - Due to the continued instability in the Iranian situation and potential supply risks worrying the market, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract was at 59.50, up 0.38 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract was at 63.87, up 0.53 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.84%. The China INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 9.9 to 436.8 yuan/barrel, and rose 0.2 to 437 yuan/barrel in the night session [1] - According to CCTV news, on January 11, local time, it was learned from informed officials that the US District of Columbia Federal Prosecutor's Office has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The investigation involves the renovation project of the Fed's Washington headquarters building and whether Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the project [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - hand side long position on dips. Cross - variety: None. Cross - period: None. Spot - futures: None. Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The asphalt market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with local spot prices rebounding. The market is a mix of long and short factors, showing a north - south divide. The cost side support is strengthening marginally, and the northern winter storage demand is consolidating the bottom signal. However, the actual fundamentals are still weak, especially in the south where there is a large supply of low - priced resources and significant surplus pressure. The local surplus contradiction needs time to resolve, and the risk of raw material supply tightening is a potential upward driver [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25th, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 181,112 lots, down 8,923 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 162,574 lots, down 25,367 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 2,870 - 3,190 yuan/ton; South China: 2,850 - 2,950 yuan/ton; East China: 3,000 - 3,100 yuan/ton. Asphalt spot prices in North China and South China increased yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - hand side long position on dips. Cross - variety: None. Cross - period: None. Spot - futures: None. Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures on various asphalt - related data such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, weekly production, consumption in different sectors (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and refinery and social inventories [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially marking the bottom of crude oil prices. Polyolefin overall profit has declined, and the high inventory in the upstream and midstream has started to decrease. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the low valuation. Once the cost - end crude oil begins to rebound, polyolefins may rise significantly. [16][17] - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP spread at low prices. [18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially indicating the bottom of crude oil prices. [16] - **Cost - end**: WTI crude oil dropped by 3.45%, Brent crude oil by 2.95%, coal price remained unchanged (0.00%), methanol by 6.73%, ethylene by 8.75%, propylene by 10.23%, and propane remained unchanged (0.00%). The low - level rebound of oil prices has a significant impact on the cost - end under the background of weak supply and demand. [16] - **Supply - end**: PE capacity utilization was 83.3%, down 0.76% month - on - month, up 4.75% year - on - year, and down 5.42% compared to the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization was 78.55%, up 1.76% month - on - month, up 5.46% year - on - year, and down 5.87% compared to the 5 - year average. There was a divergence in the supply - end of the polyolefin 2601 contract. PE had only 400,000 tons of planned capacity, while PP faced greater pressure with 1.45 million tons of planned capacity. [16] - **Import and Export**: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, up 7.58% month - on - month and down 10.04% year - on - year. PP imports were 177,400 tons, down 6.18% month - on - month and year - on - year. The export season for both PE and PP arrived. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, down 14.48% month - on - month and up 63.54% year - on - year. PP exports were 208,200 tons, down 16.82% month - on - month and up 21.14% year - on - year. [16] - **Demand - end**: PE downstream operating rate was 45%, up 1.44% month - on - month and down 0.09% year - on - year. PP downstream operating rate was 52.61%, up 1.74% month - on - month and up 1.23% year - on - year. During the seasonal peak season, the overall operating rate reached the same level as previous years, but the demand for PE agricultural film raw materials was strong. [17] - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 20.44%. PE trader inventory was 50,100 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 7.28% and a year - on - year increase of 0.58%. PP production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 11.96% and a year - on - year increase of 12.11%. PP trader inventory was 228,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 12.45% and a year - on - year increase of 87.68%. PP port inventory was 64,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 5.97% and a year - on - year increase of 5.04%. [17] - **Next - month Forecast**: The reference trading range for polyethylene (L2601) is 6,600 - 6,900, and for polypropylene (PP2601) is 6,300 - 6,600. [17] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented to show the term structure, price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of LLDPE and PP contracts from 2021 - 2025, as well as the spreads between different varieties such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, etc. [34][49] 3.3 Cost - end - The cost - end shows that crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating. Multiple cost - related price charts are provided, including WTI crude oil,动力煤, methanol, propane, etc., as well as relevant data on LPG such as domestic LPG supply, production, import, inventory, and production margins of related devices. [85][94] 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - end - The production raw material proportion of PE includes oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based PE. In 2025, there were multiple PE production projects put into operation, with a total of 463,000 tons of projects already in operation and 40,000 tons yet to be put into operation. The charts show PE capacity, capacity utilization, and maintenance loss volume. [131][137] 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - Charts display the total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, import volume, and export volume of PE from 2021 - 2025. [146][156] 3.6 Polyethylene Demand - end - The downstream demand for polyethylene is mainly concentrated in packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc. Charts show the downstream demand proportion, CPI changes, downstream operating rates of different products, etc. [163][168]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in retail prices for gasoline and diesel is expected to raise transportation costs for consumers and logistics companies, impacting overall market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of June 17, 2025, retail prices for gasoline and diesel will be raised by 260 yuan/ton and 255 yuan/ton respectively, translating to increases of 0.20 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and 0.22 yuan for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel [1]. - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 10 yuan [1]. - A small private car with a monthly mileage of 2000 km and a fuel consumption of 8L/100km will see an increase of approximately 15 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The international crude oil prices have been rebounding, leading to positive market sentiment regarding retail price adjustments [2]. - During the initial phase of the pricing cycle, gasoline demand increased due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, and post-holiday replenishment by downstream users further boosted market transactions [2]. - Diesel demand has also seen a recovery in certain northern regions due to seasonal agricultural activities, although the overall market sentiment is expected to soften as these activities conclude [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the upcoming pricing cycle will start with a significant upward adjustment, which is likely to support market conditions [2]. - With the end of high school and college entrance exams, there is an anticipated increase in gasoline demand due to summer travel [2]. - However, diesel consumption is expected to slow down as the agricultural season wraps up, and the market lacks strong supportive factors [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rebound in oil prices due to various factors including U.S.-China trade negotiations, moderate U.S. inflation, declining oil inventories, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2] - On June 13, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil futures surged over 8% due to Middle Eastern tensions, with WTI reaching a high of $74.35 per barrel and Brent hitting $75.28 per barrel, marking their highest levels since early February and early April respectively [1][2] - OPEC+ has increased oil production three times consecutively from May to July 2025, with a significant monthly increase of 410,000 barrels per day, totaling over 1.2 million barrels per day, the largest increase since 2020 [1][2] Group 2 - Non-OPEC+ countries, primarily in the Americas, are expected to provide an annual supply increase of approximately 1 million barrels per day in 2025-2026, with the U.S., Brazil, and Canada contributing significantly [2] - Global oil demand is projected to increase, with OPEC+, EIA, and IEA forecasting year-on-year growth of 1.013 million barrels per day and 980,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - Global oil inventories are at near five-year lows, driven by demand recovery and OPEC+ production cuts, while the U.S. is in the process of replenishing its strategic reserves, which currently stand at approximately 402 million barrels [3]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Group anticipates a rebound in Brent crude oil prices to $68 per barrel in the coming months, despite facing short-term pressures [1] Group 1 - UBS Group projects that Brent crude oil prices will recover to $68 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Group anticipates that despite facing short-term pressures, Brent crude oil prices are expected to rebound to $68 per barrel in the coming months [1] Group 1 - The company acknowledges current market challenges impacting oil prices [1] - The forecast indicates a recovery in oil prices, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the energy sector [1] - The projected price of $68 per barrel reflects a significant rebound from current levels [1]