国泰君安期货·能源化工 聚烯烃周报 国泰君安期货研究所 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 观点综述 01 塑料部分 02 聚丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 本周塑料观点：2、3月检修暂少，下游需求有待回归，弱现实强成本 供应 2025年总有效产能增速16%，今年投产前低后高，05合约仅巴斯夫湛江新增排产HD，但存量产能较同期大幅抬升。PE总开工88%/-0.4%。节中连云港 石化回归，独山子、齐鲁新增检修，检修损失增量有限，供应维持高位。3月检修计划暂维持偏低水平，宝丰、独山子、裕龙等全密度产能回切LL, 标品排产维持中性，乙烯衍生品利润中PE尚可，开工暂高位看待。 3月远洋及近洋船货陆续到港，节中港口库存中性，后续供应压力或边际增加。节后NOVA、沙比克等牌号报盘，涂覆报价走强明显，低价报盘 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidation pattern. On the spot side, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec and PetroChina are stable, and the prices of拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina are also stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. Previously, the disk drive was affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a lower valuation of polyolefins. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion, and the future domestic consumption potential [2]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6516, 6543, and 6568 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they decreased by 6, 14, and 15 respectively, with daily price changes of -0.09%, -0.21%, and -0.23%. The trading volumes were 74760, 300927, and 6417, and the open interests were 135903, 510143, and 10432, with changes of -14270, 21355, and 1247 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -27, -25, and 52, compared with the previous values of -35, -26, and 61 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6192, 6256, and 6291 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they increased by 14, 2, and 14 respectively, with daily price changes of 0.23%, 0.03%, and 0.22%. The trading volumes were 128985, 303323, and 6466, and the open interests were 195372, 497942, and 26213, with changes of -23998, 11398, and 1729 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -64, -35, and 99, compared with the previous values of -76, -23, and 99 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2131 yuan/ton, 6055 yuan/ton, 594 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6020 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, methanol futures increased by 4 yuan/ton, Shandong propylene decreased by 10 yuan/ton, South China propane decreased by 5 dollars/ton, and North China powder materials decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market - Middle Reaches**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6550 - 6850, 6500 - 6750, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively, remaining the same as the previous values. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6300, 6050 - 6200, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively, also remaining the same as the previous values [2]. News - On Tuesday (December 16), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $55.27 per barrel, down $1.55 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.73%, with a trading range of $54.98 - $56.70. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $58.92 per barrel, down $1.64 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.71%, with a trading range of $58.72 - $60.40 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. On the spot market, some prices of linear LL from Sinopec were lowered by 100, while those from PetroChina remained stable. For drawn PP, prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina were stable. From a fundamental perspective, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached a high, and demand is gradually being released. Previously, the market was driven by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, causing the valuation of polyolefins to decline. Although the international crude oil price rebounded briefly after the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, it continued to weaken at the close, dragging down domestic chemical products, and the polyolefin market generally remained weak [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6534, 6558, and 6600 respectively, with price drops of -27, -41, and -35 and declines of -0.41%, -0.62%, and -0.53%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6177, 6241, and 6280 respectively, with price changes of 15, -2, and -3 and changes of 0.24%, -0.03%, and -0.05% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL's January, May, and September contracts were 231491, 295211, and 3959, and the open interests were 227085, 451436, and 7497, with open interest changes of -39927, 41542, and 1127. For PP, the trading volumes of January, May, and September contracts were 257560, 176198, and 3665, and the open interests were 351293, 400615, and 19776, with open interest changes of -28910, 26024, and 706 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -24, -42, and 66, compared to previous values of -38, -36, and 74. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -64, -39, and 103, compared to previous values of -81, -40, and 121 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2077 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 603 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6040 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2059 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 596 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6030 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6600 - 6900, 6550 - 6800, and 6600 - 7000 respectively. The previous price ranges were 6600 - 6900, 6550 - 6850 (8100 - 8250), and 6650 - 7050. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6300, 6000 - 6200, and 6150 - 6350, and the previous price ranges were 6150 - 6350, 6100 - 6250, and 6200 - 6400 [2] News - On Thursday (December 11), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.60 per barrel, down $0.86 from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.47%, with a trading range of $57.01 - 58.94. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.28 per barrel, down $0.93 from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.49%, with a trading range of $60.77 - 62.63 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially marking the bottom of crude oil prices. Polyolefin overall profit has declined, and the high inventory in the upstream and midstream has started to decrease. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the low valuation. Once the cost - end crude oil begins to rebound, polyolefins may rise significantly. [16][17] - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP spread at low prices. [18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially indicating the bottom of crude oil prices. [16] - **Cost - end**: WTI crude oil dropped by 3.45%, Brent crude oil by 2.95%, coal price remained unchanged (0.00%), methanol by 6.73%, ethylene by 8.75%, propylene by 10.23%, and propane remained unchanged (0.00%). The low - level rebound of oil prices has a significant impact on the cost - end under the background of weak supply and demand. [16] - **Supply - end**: PE capacity utilization was 83.3%, down 0.76% month - on - month, up 4.75% year - on - year, and down 5.42% compared to the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization was 78.55%, up 1.76% month - on - month, up 5.46% year - on - year, and down 5.87% compared to the 5 - year average. There was a divergence in the supply - end of the polyolefin 2601 contract. PE had only 400,000 tons of planned capacity, while PP faced greater pressure with 1.45 million tons of planned capacity. [16] - **Import and Export**: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, up 7.58% month - on - month and down 10.04% year - on - year. PP imports were 177,400 tons, down 6.18% month - on - month and year - on - year. The export season for both PE and PP arrived. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, down 14.48% month - on - month and up 63.54% year - on - year. PP exports were 208,200 tons, down 16.82% month - on - month and up 21.14% year - on - year. [16] - **Demand - end**: PE downstream operating rate was 45%, up 1.44% month - on - month and down 0.09% year - on - year. PP downstream operating rate was 52.61%, up 1.74% month - on - month and up 1.23% year - on - year. During the seasonal peak season, the overall operating rate reached the same level as previous years, but the demand for PE agricultural film raw materials was strong. [17] - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 20.44%. PE trader inventory was 50,100 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 7.28% and a year - on - year increase of 0.58%. PP production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 11.96% and a year - on - year increase of 12.11%. PP trader inventory was 228,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 12.45% and a year - on - year increase of 87.68%. PP port inventory was 64,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 5.97% and a year - on - year increase of 5.04%. [17] - **Next - month Forecast**: The reference trading range for polyethylene (L2601) is 6,600 - 6,900, and for polypropylene (PP2601) is 6,300 - 6,600. [17] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented to show the term structure, price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of LLDPE and PP contracts from 2021 - 2025, as well as the spreads between different varieties such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, etc. [34][49] 3.3 Cost - end - The cost - end shows that crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating. Multiple cost - related price charts are provided, including WTI crude oil,动力煤, methanol, propane, etc., as well as relevant data on LPG such as domestic LPG supply, production, import, inventory, and production margins of related devices. [85][94] 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - end - The production raw material proportion of PE includes oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based PE. In 2025, there were multiple PE production projects put into operation, with a total of 463,000 tons of projects already in operation and 40,000 tons yet to be put into operation. The charts show PE capacity, capacity utilization, and maintenance loss volume. [131][137] 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - Charts display the total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, import volume, and export volume of PE from 2021 - 2025. [146][156] 3.6 Polyethylene Demand - end - The downstream demand for polyethylene is mainly concentrated in packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc. Charts show the downstream demand proportion, CPI changes, downstream operating rates of different products, etc. [163][168]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the polyolefin market rebounded slightly. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined, but due to cost fluctuations and low valuations, there is resistance to downward price movements. After the China-US meeting over the weekend, the commodity market is generally positive. The rebound in international crude oil prices has strengthened support for plastics. PE and PP have been falling for some time, and prices may rebound in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL (Linear Low-Density Polyethylene)**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7026, 7282, and 7090 respectively, with price increases of 115, 52, and 114, and increases of 1.66%, 0.72%, and 1.63% respectively. Trading volumes were 49493, 1358, and 471649 respectively, and open interest was 75486, 3255, and 540833 respectively. Open interest changes were 5747, -1193, and -3433 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -256, 192, and 64 respectively [2] - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6978, 7100, and 7030 respectively, with price increases of 92, 24, and 63, and increases of 1.34%, 0.34%, and 0.90% respectively. Trading volumes were 25016, 1406, and 399837 respectively, and open interest was 43321, 3607, and 457686 respectively. Open interest changes were 4692, -815, and -19019 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -122, 70, and 52 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2279 yuan/ton, 6595 yuan/ton, 635 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6940 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: The current price ranges for LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges for PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7350 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market News - On Monday (May 12), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.95 per barrel, up $0.93 or 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.02 - $63.61. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.96 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.64% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $66.4 [2]