| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6516 | 6543 | 6568 | 6192 | 6256 | 6291 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 涨跌 | 6522 -6 | 6557 -14 | 6583 -15 | 6178 14 | 6254 2 | 6277 14 | | 货 | | | | | | | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.09% | -0.21% | -0.23% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.22% | | | 成交量 | 74760 | 300927 | 6417 | 128985 | 303323 | 6466 | | 场 | 持仓量 | 135903 | 510143 | 1043 ...

20251212申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially marking the bottom of crude oil prices. Polyolefin overall profit has declined, and the high inventory in the upstream and midstream has started to decrease. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the low valuation. Once the cost - end crude oil begins to rebound, polyolefins may rise significantly. [16][17] - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP spread at low prices. [18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially indicating the bottom of crude oil prices. [16] - **Cost - end**: WTI crude oil dropped by 3.45%, Brent crude oil by 2.95%, coal price remained unchanged (0.00%), methanol by 6.73%, ethylene by 8.75%, propylene by 10.23%, and propane remained unchanged (0.00%). The low - level rebound of oil prices has a significant impact on the cost - end under the background of weak supply and demand. [16] - **Supply - end**: PE capacity utilization was 83.3%, down 0.76% month - on - month, up 4.75% year - on - year, and down 5.42% compared to the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization was 78.55%, up 1.76% month - on - month, up 5.46% year - on - year, and down 5.87% compared to the 5 - year average. There was a divergence in the supply - end of the polyolefin 2601 contract. PE had only 400,000 tons of planned capacity, while PP faced greater pressure with 1.45 million tons of planned capacity. [16] - **Import and Export**: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, up 7.58% month - on - month and down 10.04% year - on - year. PP imports were 177,400 tons, down 6.18% month - on - month and year - on - year. The export season for both PE and PP arrived. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, down 14.48% month - on - month and up 63.54% year - on - year. PP exports were 208,200 tons, down 16.82% month - on - month and up 21.14% year - on - year. [16] - **Demand - end**: PE downstream operating rate was 45%, up 1.44% month - on - month and down 0.09% year - on - year. PP downstream operating rate was 52.61%, up 1.74% month - on - month and up 1.23% year - on - year. During the seasonal peak season, the overall operating rate reached the same level as previous years, but the demand for PE agricultural film raw materials was strong. [17] - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 20.44%. PE trader inventory was 50,100 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 7.28% and a year - on - year increase of 0.58%. PP production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 11.96% and a year - on - year increase of 12.11%. PP trader inventory was 228,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 12.45% and a year - on - year increase of 87.68%. PP port inventory was 64,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 5.97% and a year - on - year increase of 5.04%. [17] - **Next - month Forecast**: The reference trading range for polyethylene (L2601) is 6,600 - 6,900, and for polypropylene (PP2601) is 6,300 - 6,600. [17] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented to show the term structure, price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of LLDPE and PP contracts from 2021 - 2025, as well as the spreads between different varieties such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, etc. [34][49] 3.3 Cost - end - The cost - end shows that crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating. Multiple cost - related price charts are provided, including WTI crude oil,动力煤, methanol, propane, etc., as well as relevant data on LPG such as domestic LPG supply, production, import, inventory, and production margins of related devices. [85][94] 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - end - The production raw material proportion of PE includes oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based PE. In 2025, there were multiple PE production projects put into operation, with a total of 463,000 tons of projects already in operation and 40,000 tons yet to be put into operation. The charts show PE capacity, capacity utilization, and maintenance loss volume. [131][137] 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - Charts display the total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, import volume, and export volume of PE from 2021 - 2025. [146][156] 3.6 Polyethylene Demand - end - The downstream demand for polyethylene is mainly concentrated in packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc. Charts show the downstream demand proportion, CPI changes, downstream operating rates of different products, etc. [163][168]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the polyolefin market rebounded slightly. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined, but due to cost fluctuations and low valuations, there is resistance to downward price movements. After the China-US meeting over the weekend, the commodity market is generally positive. The rebound in international crude oil prices has strengthened support for plastics. PE and PP have been falling for some time, and prices may rebound in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL (Linear Low-Density Polyethylene)**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7026, 7282, and 7090 respectively, with price increases of 115, 52, and 114, and increases of 1.66%, 0.72%, and 1.63% respectively. Trading volumes were 49493, 1358, and 471649 respectively, and open interest was 75486, 3255, and 540833 respectively. Open interest changes were 5747, -1193, and -3433 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -256, 192, and 64 respectively [2] - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6978, 7100, and 7030 respectively, with price increases of 92, 24, and 63, and increases of 1.34%, 0.34%, and 0.90% respectively. Trading volumes were 25016, 1406, and 399837 respectively, and open interest was 43321, 3607, and 457686 respectively. Open interest changes were 4692, -815, and -19019 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -122, 70, and 52 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2279 yuan/ton, 6595 yuan/ton, 635 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6940 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: The current price ranges for LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges for PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7350 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market News - On Monday (May 12), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.95 per barrel, up $0.93 or 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.02 - $63.61. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.96 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.64% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $66.4 [2]