Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the A-share market, highlighting the impact of escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, which have led to significant market declines and sector-specific movements [1][3][4]. Market Overview - On October 14, A-shares experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component by 2.54%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.99%. The total trading volume reached 25,969.16 billion yuan, an increase of 2,223.71 billion yuan from the previous day [7]. - Over 3,500 stocks in the market declined, while 45 stocks hit the daily limit up [7]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks weakened across the board, with the semiconductor sector showing a high opening but closing lower. The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant drop in the afternoon [7]. - Conversely, the diamond cultivation sector surged due to ongoing trade tensions, with stocks like Power Diamond hitting the daily limit up [7]. - The port and shipping sector saw gains, with stocks like Nanjing Port hitting the daily limit up, following the announcement of an investigation into the shipping and shipbuilding industries by the Ministry of Transport [7]. Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The article notes that the U.S. will begin imposing additional port fees on shipping companies, affecting a wide range of goods, which positions maritime shipping as a critical battleground in the trade war between the two largest economies [5]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to U.S. trade representatives, emphasizing the importance of maintaining communication while rejecting threats of new restrictions [3][5]. Investment Insights - UBS highlighted the high uncertainty surrounding the short-term trajectory of U.S.-China relations, viewing the potential for a 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods as a downside risk scenario. The firm maintains a baseline GDP growth forecast of approximately 4.7% for China in 2025 [6]. - The article also mentions that the solar photovoltaic equipment sector is expected to see a significant increase in prices due to production capacity restrictions, with a report indicating that existing capacity utilization will be limited to 65% [7]. Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - The article indicates a net outflow of 945.57 billion yuan from major funds, with the electronics sector experiencing the largest outflow, particularly from stocks like SMIC [19]. - Conversely, sectors such as banking, coal, and food and beverage saw net inflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards more stable sectors amid market volatility [19]. Company Performance Highlights - Several companies reported significant profit increases, including: - RichChip Microelectronics projected a net profit increase of 116%-127% year-on-year for the first three quarters [15]. - Shenghe Resources expects a net profit of 740 million to 820 million yuan for the same period, marking a year-on-year increase of 696.82%-782.96% [15]. - Xinda Co. anticipates a net profit of 180 million to 205 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 2807.87%-3211.74% [15]. Conclusion - The article encapsulates the current state of the A-share market, emphasizing the influence of geopolitical tensions on market dynamics and sector performance, while also highlighting specific companies that are poised for significant growth amidst the volatility [1][3][5][7].

专 题 研 究 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wangyq@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 汪秉涵 (8621)23297818× wangbh@swsresearch.com 2025 年 10 月 12 日 中美摩擦升温，短期性价比逐步显 现 ——北交所策略周报（20251009-20251012） 本周策略观点： 本周市场行情： 北交所新股： 研究支持 新三板动态： ⚫ 本周新挂牌 0 家，摘牌 0 家，周新增计划融资 0 亿元，完成融资 0 亿元。 风险提示： ⚫ 个股业绩季度波动过大风险，宏观经济下行的风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 新 三 板 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the registration of two new stocks, Dingjia Precision and Youli Intelligent, has been successful, maintaining the "high-quality" expansion tone. This marks the eighth and ninth successful registrations for the North Exchange this year, highlighting a slow issuance pace compared to other boards [10][11]. - The North Exchange has only listed six new stocks this year, making it the slowest among the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, and Shanghai and Shenzhen Main Boards, which have listed seven, twenty, and nineteen new stocks respectively [11]. - The bottleneck for the low issuance volume of new stocks on the North Exchange is attributed to the registration process. As of now, there are ten companies that have passed the review but have not yet registered [11] Group 2 - The North Exchange 50 index fell by 1.73%, with an average daily trading amount of 27.98 billion, a decrease of 17.8% week-on-week. The market style favored large-cap quality stocks, with the banking index rising by 3.77% [10][20]. - The report highlights that the market is showing a shift towards domestic demand sectors, with stocks like Minshida and Kangnong Agriculture seeing increases of 7.15% and 5.37% respectively, as the deadline for the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" approaches [10][20]. - The report suggests that the overall market risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there are signs of a resurgence in consumption and other sectors [10][20]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the mid-year report market, recommending attention to companies such as Lintai New Materials, Minshida, and KAIT, among others [15]. - Long-term focus is advised on companies with competitive advantages in the North Exchange, particularly in the technology and new consumption sectors [15]. - The report notes that the North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 94.70 times, with a median of 52.90 times, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to other boards [27][29]. Group 4 - The North Exchange has seen a total of 268 companies listed as of July 4, 2025, with no new stocks listed this week [33]. - The report mentions that there are 32 new companies under review for registration, indicating ongoing interest in the North Exchange despite the slow pace of new listings [33][40]. - The trading volume for the North Exchange was 6.105 billion shares this week, a decrease of 16.27% compared to the previous week, with a total transaction amount of 139.916 billion, down 17.81% [32][20]. Group 5 - In the New Third Board, there were no new listings this week, with one company delisted. The total planned financing for the week was 1.53 billion, with 0.232 billion completed [57]. - The report indicates that as of July 4, 2025, there are 6,059 companies listed on the New Third Board, with 2,332 in the innovation layer and 3,727 in the basic layer [57]. - The report highlights that the New Third Board has seen a total of 15.30 billion planned financing this week, with one company, Zhongxin Crystal, planning to raise 1.5 billion [61].

在4月7日暴跌之时，汇金、中国诚通、中国国新纷纷出手增持中国股票资产，坚决维护资 本市场平稳运行。并将持续大额增持央国企股票和科技创新类股票。 4月8日， 中国电科坚定看好资本市场 ， 增持回购旗下上市公司股票。 继 昨 天 大 跌 后 ， 今 日 A 股 三 大 指 数 集 体 上 涨 ， 截 至 收 盘 ， 沪 指 涨 1.58% ， 深 成 指 涨 0 . 6 4%，创业板指涨1.83%，北证5 0指数涨4.73%。全市场成交额16532亿元，较上日放 量3 52亿元； 融资余额减少477亿，融资盘是本轮最大的恐慌盘。 盘面上，农业板块持续走强，秋乐种业等20余股涨停，转内销的零售商业百货，食品，白 酒，旅游等大涨。下跌方面，苹果概念股延续跌势，歌尔股份连续3个交易日跌停。 反制概念大涨，其主要是 美国发布所谓"对等关税"细则之后，遭到全球多个国家的反对 和批评，我国也在第一时间做出反击，推出关税反制细则，迅速有效的维护了自身权益。 在我们强硬反制之后，A股国家队护盘机制快速启动！ 正如国际货币基金组织（IMF）评价：中国此次反制重新定义了大国博弈的速度与深度， 为全球贸易治理提供了新范式。 0 1 国 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a rebound after a significant drop, with major indices showing gains, driven by strong government intervention and market confidence restoration efforts [1][2][3]. Market Performance - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.83%, with total market turnover reaching 1.6532 trillion yuan, an increase of 35.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The financing balance decreased by 47.7 billion yuan, indicating a significant panic selling in the financing market [1]. Sector Performance - The agricultural sector continued to strengthen, with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while retail, food, liquor, and tourism sectors also saw substantial gains [1]. - Conversely, Apple-related stocks continued to decline, with GoerTek experiencing three consecutive days of limit down [1]. Government and Institutional Actions - Following the market drop, the "national team" initiated protective measures, with major state-owned enterprises and funds actively increasing their stock holdings to stabilize the market [3][4]. - On April 8, multiple state-owned enterprises announced stock repurchase and increase plans, with total investment exceeding 10 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in the market's future [4][5]. - The National Social Security Fund also expressed its commitment to long-term and value investing, actively increasing its domestic stock holdings [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a liquidity boost from potential reserve requirement ratio cuts by the central bank, releasing approximately 1.5 trillion yuan [7]. - The government's countermeasures against trade tensions are anticipated to create conditions for market sentiment recovery [8]. - Historical data suggests that after a drop exceeding 5%, the market has a 78% probability of rebounding within a month, with an average increase of 12% [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - Current valuations in the A-share market are at attractive levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-earnings ratio at 14 times, indicating a significant discount compared to historical averages [10]. - Key sectors to focus on include agriculture, rare earths, and technology, which are expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a rebound following a significant drop, supported by government interventions aimed at stabilizing the market, particularly through the actions of the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Reactions and Government Interventions - After a major decline, A-shares saw a rebound with over 3,200 stocks rising and a trading volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2] - The Central Huijin Investment announced its commitment to increase holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to stabilize the market, indicating a positive outlook for the A-share market [5][8] - The Central Bank and financial regulatory bodies also expressed support for the Central Huijin's actions, emphasizing their role in maintaining market stability [9][10] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The Central Huijin's strategy resembles that of a "stabilization fund," which has historically intervened during market downturns to support key stocks and sectors [9][16] - Insurance funds are expected to increase their A-share investments significantly, with projections indicating an annual increase of 30% of new premiums directed towards A-shares starting in 2025 [10][11] - Historical data shows that major institutional investors tend to favor large-cap blue-chip stocks and industry leaders during market stabilization efforts [13][14] Group 3: Asset Selection Criteria - Investors are advised to consider assets that align with national development strategies, possess strong fundamentals, and are reasonably valued [23][24] - The A500 Index ETF (159351) is highlighted as a suitable investment vehicle for those seeking balanced exposure to both value and growth stocks, with significant inflows and liquidity [27][28] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical crises have shown that markets eventually recover after initial panic, suggesting that current market conditions may present buying opportunities [33][36] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a calm and rational approach to identify potential bottom-fishing opportunities as the market stabilizes [37][38]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to patiently wait for the impact of recent events to pass and to focus on import substitution and beneficiaries of countermeasures [9][11] - The North Exchange 50 index fell by 2.61%, with an average daily trading volume of 20.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5% [9][16] - The market showed strong performance in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, driven by expectations of optimized drug procurement [9][10] Group 2 - The U.S. announced "reciprocal tariffs" that exceeded market expectations, imposing tariffs of 34% on mainland China, 20% on the EU, 46% on Vietnam, and 32% on Taiwan, which poses a significant risk to global economic stability [10] - The report notes that U.S. consumer spending accounts for about 30% of global consumption, and the increased tariffs are likely to raise domestic CPI, leading to a risk of stagflation [10] - The report highlights that the proportion of Chinese exports to the U.S. has been declining, with only 14% of exports going to the U.S. in the first two months of 2025 [10] Group 3 - Short-term risks in the North Exchange are increasing, with a recommendation to focus on import substitution and beneficiaries of countermeasures, such as Kangnong Agriculture and Minshida [11] - The report indicates that all asset prices, including stocks, oil, and metals, have declined, leading to a sharp drop in risk appetite [11] - The North Exchange's current quantitative indicators are in a high-level retreat but have not yet reached oversold territory [11] Group 4 - The North Exchange had 102 stocks rise and 160 stocks fall this week, with a rise-to-fall ratio of 0.64 [31] - The top gainers included Youkang Pharmaceutical and Yongshun Biological, while the top losers included Kelaite and Zhisheng Information [34] - The report notes that the North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 74.34 times, with a median of 42.28 times [24][31] Group 5 - The North Exchange introduced self-regulatory management rules to enhance procedural trading supervision [46][47] - This week, there were no new IPOs on the North Exchange, with a total of 265 companies listed as of April 3, 2025 [26] - The report states that 8 companies were newly listed and 8 were delisted in the New Third Board, with a total financing of 0.70 billion completed [48][50]