1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Potential [4] - Zinc: Potential [4] - Sugar: On hold [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative in 2026, with the USD index expected to range between 95 - 102. The RMB may show a stable upward trend with limited depreciation space [7]. - For cross - border arbitrage of various commodities, different strategies are recommended based on their respective market conditions, such as long LME copper and short SHFE copper for copper futures, and long LME zinc and short SHFE zinc for zinc futures. For most other commodities, a wait - and - see approach is suggested [4][6][37][51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference and overseas price difference fluctuated. This week, due to the neutral valuation of the domestic - international price difference and the high - level volatility of the RMB exchange rate, it's recommended to hold off on cross - market arbitrage [13]. - **Silver**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference first rose and then fell, and the overseas price difference declined. This week, as the domestic - international price difference has returned to a neutral level and the tightness of overseas silver spot has marginally eased, the strategy of shorting the domestic - international price difference should be exited [19]. - **Platinum**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference significantly narrowed, and the previous high - premium situation in the domestic market was rectified. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [25]. - **Palladium**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference significantly narrowed, and the high - premium state was rectified. This week, cross - border arbitrage should be put on hold [31]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, the LME cancellation warrant ratio was high, the overseas squeeze risk remained, and the import profit of forward contracts was unlocked. This week, it's recommended to focus on taking a long position in LME copper and a short position in SHFE copper in forward contracts [37]. - **Aluminum**: Last week, domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to accumulate, while overseas inventories decreased. In the short term, the exchange ratio fluctuated within a range. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [42]. - **Zinc**: Last week, zinc ingot exports gradually decreased, the accumulation speed of LME zinc inventory slowed down, and domestic zinc ingot inventory seasonally accumulated. This week, it's recommended to focus on going long on LME zinc and shorting SHFE zinc [51]. - **Lead**: Last week, LME lead inventory significantly accumulated again, and the domestic lead ingot import window closed. This week, cross - market arbitrage of lead ingots should be put on hold [52]. - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window closed, the nickel balance ratio fluctuated, and domestic and foreign inventories remained at relatively high levels. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [59]. - **Tin**: Last week, the short - term tin balance ratio fluctuated, the inventories of Shanghai tin and LME tin both increased, and the domestic - international price difference was not significant. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [63]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant driving factors. This week, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [67]. 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent spread fluctuated and rebounded. This week, due to the stability of Middle - East crude oil spot, the large fluctuation of freight rates, and the potential geopolitical risks, it's recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Natural Gas**: Last week, the TFU - HH spread fluctuated widely. This week, it's recommended to reduce positions or exit. In the short term, the trading of overseas gas prices mainly depends on the weather, and in the medium term, the fundamentals may tighten in the US and loosen in Europe, which is negative for the TFU - HH spread [104]. 3.5 Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, the soybean crushing profit fluctuated weakly. The US soybean price was strong due to optimistic export expectations, while the domestic market sentiment was weak after the pre - holiday stockpiling ended. This week, it's recommended to wait and see in the short term [73]. - **Sugar**: Last week, the domestic - international sugar price difference was at a historically high level and continued to widen. This week, it's recommended to wait and see [78]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there were no major changes, and the price spread was within the non - arbitrage range. With the approaching of the global rubber tapping season, supply is expected to increase, but demand remains weak. This week, it's recommended to wait and see [82]. 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the market's expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates decreased, putting pressure on the copper price spread between COMEX and LME. However, the expectation of US copper tariffs limited the downward space. This week, arbitrage between COMEX and LME copper should be put on hold [89]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS fluctuated. This week, as the OPEC+ April production policy is undetermined and the Middle - East geopolitical situation is tense, it's recommended to wait and see [94]. - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent spread narrowed. This week, although the US refined oil inventory is decreasing, the strengthening of oil freight rates has widened the cross - regional spread, and its sustainability needs further observation. It's recommended to wait and see [100]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: See the content under the "Energy" section [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Silver, copper, lead, zinc, and natural gas (TFU-HH) are rated as "Potential" [4] - Gold is rated as "On hold" [4] Report's Core View - The report provides a weekly analysis of China's commodity futures cross - border arbitrage, covering precious metals, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, and agricultural products. It gives investment suggestions based on the performance of each variety last week and the current market situation [4][5] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the domestic - overseas price difference and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread fluctuated. This week, with a neutral valuation of the domestic - overseas spread and the RMB exchange rate oscillating at a high level, it is recommended to wait and see [12] - **Silver**: Last week, the domestic - overseas spread strengthened while the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread declined. This week, with the domestic - overseas spread at a high level, overseas spot tightness, and RMB appreciation expectations, it is recommended to short the spread by going long on COMEX and short on SHFE [18][19] - **Platinum**: Last week, the domestic - overseas spread significantly narrowed. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [25] - **Palladium**: Last week, the domestic - overseas spread significantly narrowed. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [31] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, in the off - season of demand, domestic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and the import profit window for forward contracts opened. This week, it is recommended to go long on LME copper and short on SHFE copper in forward contracts [37][38] - **Aluminum**: Last week, domestic aluminum ingots accumulated while LME aluminum inventory decreased, and the short - term domestic - overseas ratio oscillated. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [42] - **Zinc**: Last week, previously locked - price zinc ingots will continue to be imported, and domestic inventory has room to decline while LME inventory is rising slowly. This week, it is recommended to go long on SHFE zinc and short on LME zinc [51] - **Lead**: Last week, domestic lead ingot inventory may accumulate, LME lead inventory decreased, and the import window opened. This week, it is recommended to go long on LME lead and short on SHFE lead [57] - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window remained open, the balance ratio oscillated, and inventories were at a relatively high level. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [58] - **Tin**: Last week, the domestic - overseas ratio dropped, the import window was closed, and the import loss was 6,187 yuan/ton. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [62] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the domestic - overseas spread of iron ore oscillated narrowly with no obvious driver. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [66] Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent spread rebounded from the bottom. This week, due to weakening Middle - East crude oil spot, high freight, and potential risks from Iran and Russia, it is recommended to wait and see [69] - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: Last week, the price gap rose and then declined. This week, with short - term supply and weather disturbances pushing TTF to a high level, limited high - level support, expected rebound of HH, and falling freight, it is recommended to go long on NYMEX and short on ICE, with a light - position strategy and continuous tracking of cold wave intensity and European inventory [105][106] Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, the crushing profit oscillated at the bottom, and U.S. soybeans showed a weak downward trend, promoting profit repair. This week, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [75][76] - **Sugar**: Last week, the domestic and foreign markets oscillated at a low level, the import volume in the first quarter was at a low point, and the driving force for spread convergence was weak. This week, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [80] - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there were no major changes, and the spread was in the no - arbitrage zone. With expected supply increase and no improvement in demand, it is recommended to wait and see [85] Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the possible personnel change at the Federal Reserve and expected U.S. tariffs on copper may limit the downward space of the spread. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [91] - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS rose and then declined. This week, with weakening Middle - East crude oil spot, low CPC exports, and expected export increase, it is recommended to wait and see [96] - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent spread declined. This week, considering high freight volatility and expected refinery load reduction, the spread is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [101]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Potential [4] - Silver: Potential [4] - Lead: Potential [4] - Zinc: Potential [4] - Platinum: On hold [4] - Palladium: On hold [4] Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative, with the USD index ranging between 95 - 102, and the RMB may show a stable upward trend, ranging from 6.8 - 7.2 [6]. - For cross - border arbitrage of various commodities, different strategies are recommended based on market conditions such as price differences, inventory changes, and exchange rate expectations [4][5]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets fluctuated, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread declined. This week, given the relatively high valuation of the price difference and the expected RMB appreciation, it is recommended to go long COMEX and short SHFE [12][13]. - **Silver**: Last week, the domestic - foreign silver price difference rose and then fell, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread decreased. This week, due to the high - level price difference, the tight overseas spot market, and the expected RMB appreciation, it is recommended to go long COMEX and short SHFE [19][20]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Last week, the price gap between platinum and palladium narrowed significantly, and the previous high premium was largely restored. This week, it is recommended to close the long/short positions and take profits, and put the positions on hold [26][33]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: In the off - season of demand, domestic copper inventory is still accumulating, and the copper import window remains in a loss state. Cross - market arbitrage is recommended to be on hold [40]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingots are accumulating, while LME aluminum inventory is decreasing. The short - term exchange ratio fluctuates within a range, and cross - market arbitrage is on hold [45]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, priced - locked zinc ingots will continue to be imported, and domestic zinc inventory has room to decline, while LME zinc inventory is rising. It is recommended to go long SHFE and short LME [54]. - **Lead**: Domestic lead ingot social inventory may rise, LME lead inventory is decreasing, and the lead ingot import window is open. It is recommended to go long LME lead and short SHFE lead [60]. - **Nickel**: The import window remains open, the balance ratio has slightly declined, and domestic and foreign inventories are at relatively high levels. Cross - market arbitrage is on hold [61]. - **Tin**: The domestic - foreign tin price ratio fluctuated, the spot tin import window is closed, and the import loss is 15,368 yuan/ton. Cross - market arbitrage is on hold [65]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [69]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The SC - Brent price spread has been fluctuating. Due to the weakening of Middle - East crude oil spot, high geopolitical uncertainties, and the significant decline in freight rates, it is recommended to wait and see [73][74]. - **Natural Gas**: The price difference between Europe and the US fluctuated. With expected mild temperatures in January, gas prices in Europe and the US are weak. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the opportunity of spread narrowing when the US gas price rebounds [109]. Agriculturals - **Soybean**: The crushing profit has been fluctuating at the bottom. Due to the slow progress of Chinese purchases, US soybeans showed a weak downward trend, promoting the recovery of profit levels. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [79]. - **Sugar**: Both the domestic and foreign markets rebounded at low levels, and the price difference fluctuated within a narrow range. In the short term, due to the difficulty in increasing imports, the driving force for spread convergence is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [83]. - **Natural Rubber**: There were no major changes last week, and the spread was in the non - arbitrage range. Supply is expected to increase, but demand has not improved. It is recommended to wait and see [88]. Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: The negative impact of the Fed's hawkish stance in December has been digested. With the upcoming change of the Fed chair and the strengthening of gold and silver prices, the COMEX - LME copper spread may rise. Also, the expected US copper tariff limits the spread's downside. It is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: The Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS has been fluctuating. Due to the weakening of Middle - East crude oil spot and the resilient US production, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100]. - **WTI - Brent**: The WTI - Brent spread has been fluctuating. Although freight rates have declined significantly, the high - level operation of US refineries, stable US crude oil production, and high geopolitical uncertainties limit the spread's driving force. It is recommended to wait and see [105][106]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: The price difference has been fluctuating. With expected mild temperatures in January, gas prices in Europe and the US are weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of spread narrowing when the US gas price rebounds [109].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific commodities, some are rated as "Potential" (关注), including platinum, palladium, zinc, and natural gas [4]. Core Viewpoints - In the forex market, with a persistently weak labor market, the overall monetary policy will continue to be accommodative. In 2026, the USD is expected to range between 95 - 102, and the RMB may show a stable upward trend, with a range of 6.8 - 7.2, indicating limited depreciation space and opportunities for appreciation [6]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are recommended based on their price spreads and market conditions. For example, long NYMEX and short GFEX for platinum and palladium; long SHFE and short LME for zinc; and long NYMEX and short ICE for natural gas [4][5]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets fluctuated, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread also fluctuated. This week, with the gold price oscillating upward and the spread valuation neutral, there is no short - term driving force, so it is recommended to hold and wait [12]. - **Silver**: Last week, the silver price spread between domestic and foreign markets fell and then rebounded, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread fluctuated and declined. This week, the short - squeeze trading in silver has eased, the risk of price fluctuations at high levels has increased, and there is no driving force for the spread, so it is recommended to hold and wait [18]. - **Platinum**: This week, the domestic price has risen significantly more than the overseas price, widening the spread above the import cost. Due to hedging quota limits, the short - term spread may remain high. It is recommended to go long on NYMEX platinum and short on GFEX platinum [28]. - **Palladium**: Last week, the domestic palladium price rose significantly more than the overseas price, and the domestic premium continued to expand. Due to hedging quota limits, the short - term spread may remain high. It is recommended to go long on NYMEX palladium and short on GFEX palladium [30]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: In the context of the off - season for demand, domestic copper inventories are still accumulating, and the copper import window remains in a loss state. The cross - market strategy is recommended to be observed for the time being [36]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingots have shifted to a cumulative approach, while LME aluminum inventories continue to decline. In the short term, the foreign - exchange ratio remains in a range - bound fluctuation, and cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [41]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, priced - locked zinc ingots will keep arriving, and zinc concentrate imports need time to rise notably, so domestic zinc ingot stocks still have room to fall, while LME zinc inventory is slowly climbing. It is recommended to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [50]. - **Lead**: Primary and recycled lead smelters will restart soon. Consumers were cautious about new e - bike standards early on, and year - end closures for inventory checks may lift domestic and LME lead stocks. Cross - market arbitrage for lead is temporarily on hold [56]. - **Nickel**: The import window is currently closed, with fluctuations within a numerical range, and the situation of extreme price differences has significantly improved, so cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [57]. - **Tin**: The ratio between domestic and foreign tin prices fluctuated, while the spot tin import window remains closed. The import loss stands at RMB 13,213 per ton, and the driving force behind the tin price spread is not obvious, so cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [61]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers, experiencing slight fluctuations. It is recommended to hold and wait [65]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The SC - Brent spread has been oscillating. With the Middle - East crude oil spot stabilizing, freight rates remaining highly volatile, and the uncertainty of Russian crude oil supply still existing, it is recommended to hold and wait [69]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: The price spread rebounded slightly. After the cold - wave trading ended, the temperature in January is expected to be warmer, and the price has corrected. With import - cost support, European gas prices have stopped falling. It is recommended to go long on NYMEX and short on ICE. After a deep correction, the off - season contracts in the US market are approaching the marginal block cost, with limited further downward space. There is an expectation of cooling in north - western Europe in the coming week, providing short - term price support. However, the pace of exiting Russia has slowed down, weakening supply - side risks. The far - month LNG surplus pressure still exists, and as the US price enters a low position, the long - term contract profit space has opened up, and a rebound in US gas may bring an opportunity for the spread to narrow [102]. Agriculturals - **Soybean**: The profit levels have been fluctuating at the bottom. Due to the relatively slow progress of Chinese purchases, US soybeans have shown a weak downward trend, which has facilitated the further recovery of profit levels. It is recommended to hold and wait in the short term [75]. - **Sugar**: The import crushing margins edged higher, and it is expected that in the medium to long term, the Chinese market likely outperforms ICE. With the marginal decrease in imports approaching the end of the year, the driving force for the convergence of the domestic - foreign spread is weak. It is recommended to hold and wait in the short term [78]. - **Natural Rubber**: There were no major changes last week, and the spread remained in the non - arbitrage range globally as it gradually enters the tapping season, with an expected increase in supply but no improvement in demand, showing a weak domestic and foreign market situation. It is recommended to hold and wait [82]. Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: The market has absorbed the impact of the Fed's hawkish stance in December. With the imminent selection of the Fed chair and the renewed strength of gold and silver, the COMEX - LME copper spread may rise. Meanwhile, high expectations of US copper tariffs limit the downside of the spread. It is recommended to hold and wait [88]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: The Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS has been oscillating. With the Middle - East crude oil spot stabilizing, US production remaining resilient but the number of active rigs declining, and both light and medium - heavy crude oils in the production - increasing cycle, it is recommended to hold and wait [93]. - **WTI - Brent**: The WTI - Brent spread has been oscillating. With US refinery operations returning to a high level, the pressure on refined - oil inventories increasing year - on - year, and crude oil production remaining stable for the time being, the driving force for the spread is limited. It is recommended to hold and wait [98]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: Similar to the domestic - foreign natural - gas spread analysis, the price spread rebounded slightly. After the cold - wave trading ended, the temperature in January is expected to be warmer, and the price has corrected. With import - cost support, European gas prices have stopped falling. It is recommended to go long on NYMEX and short on ICE. After a deep correction, the off - season contracts in the US market are approaching the marginal block cost, with limited further downward space. There is an expectation of cooling in north - western Europe in the coming week, providing short - term price support. However, the pace of exiting Russia has slowed down, weakening supply - side risks. The far - month LNG surplus pressure still exists, and as the US price enters a low position, the long - term contract profit space has opened up, and a rebound in US gas may bring an opportunity for the spread to narrow [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc is rated as "Potential" with a strategy of "Long SHFE, Short LME" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the forex market, the overall monetary policy will remain accommodative due to the persistently weak labor market. The USD index is expected to range between 95 - 102 in 2026, and the RMB may show a stable upward trend with a range of 6.8 - 7.2, indicating limited depreciation space and opportunities for appreciation [6] - For zinc, the domestic zinc ingot export window is open, domestic inventory pressure has eased, and LME zinc inventory is gradually increasing. It is recommended to roll - participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the internal - external price difference of gold fluctuated, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA price difference also fluctuated. This week, the gold price is expected to rise oscillatingly, the internal - external price difference valuation is neutral, and there is a lack of short - term drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Silver**: Last week, the internal - external price difference of silver fell and then rebounded, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA price difference oscillated and declined. This week, the short - squeeze trading of silver has eased, the risk of high - level price fluctuations has increased, and there is a lack of price difference drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [19] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, LME copper inventory increased, and the copper import window remained in a loss state. The cross - market strategy is recommended to wait and see [25] - **Aluminum**: Last week, domestic aluminum ingots started to accumulate, LME aluminum inventory continued to decline, and the short - term internal - external ratio oscillated within a range. Cross - market arbitrage should wait and see [30] - **Zinc**: Currently, the domestic zinc ingot export window is open, domestic zinc ingot social inventory is decreasing, and LME zinc inventory is rising. It is recommended to roll - participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [36] - **Lead**: Last week, many domestic primary and secondary lead smelters were under maintenance, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises remained high, domestic lead ingot social inventory remained low, LME lead inventory accumulated again, and the domestic lead ingot import window opened. Cross - market arbitrage should wait and see [42] - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window was closed, the price difference extreme situation improved significantly, and cross - market arbitrage should wait and see [48] - **Tin**: Last week, the internal - external ratio of tin increased, the tin spot import window remained closed, the import loss was 15,206 yuan/ton, and the driving force for the tin price difference was not obvious. Cross - market arbitrage should wait and see [52] 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the internal - external price difference of iron ore oscillated within a narrow range without obvious drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [56] 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price difference oscillated. Due to the stability of Middle - East crude oil spot, high - volatility freight, and uncertainty in Russian crude oil supply, it is recommended to wait and see [60] - **Natural Gas**: Last week, the price difference (TFU - HH) rebounded slightly. The cold - wave trading ended, US production continued to rise, exports temporarily declined, and prices fell back; import costs supported European gas prices to stop falling. In the future, the US temperature is expected to be warmer, and the US dry gas production has reached a high level. The European price is approaching the import cost, and the bottom is strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of price difference narrowing after the rebound [95] 3.5 Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, the crushing profit oscillated at the bottom. Due to the slow progress of Chinese purchases, US soybeans showed a weak downward trend, which promoted the further recovery of profit levels. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [66] - **Sugar**: Last week, the internal - external price difference increased slightly. As the year - end approached, the marginal import volume decreased, and the driving force for the convergence of the internal - external price difference was weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [69] - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there was little change, and the price difference remained in the non - arbitrage range. Globally, it is gradually entering the tapping season, with an expected increase in supply, but no improvement on the demand side. It is recommended to wait and see [78] 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the negative impact of the Fed's hawkish stance in December has been digested by the market. With the upcoming change of the Fed chairman and the strengthening of gold and silver prices, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper may rise. The market also expects a high probability of the US imposing tariffs on copper, so the downward space of the price difference is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [79] - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS oscillated. Due to the weak operation of Middle - East crude oil spot, the resilience of US production, and limited short - term guidance, it is recommended to wait and see [84] - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent price difference oscillated. With the US refinery operating rate returning to a high level, the pressure of refined oil inventory increasing year - on - year, and stable crude oil production, the price difference driver is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [90] - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: As mentioned above, after the cold - wave trading ended, the price difference rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of price difference narrowing after the rebound [95]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Silver and Zinc are rated as "Potential", while Copper is rated as "On hold" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly analysis of cross - border arbitrage opportunities in China's commodity futures market, covering various commodities such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, and agriculturals. It gives last week's performance, this week's recommendations, and key influencing factors for each commodity [4][12][14] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals 1.1 Gold - Last week: The price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets, as well as the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread, fluctuated [14] - This week: Suggestion is to hold as the price is rising moderately and there is a lack of short - term drivers for the spread [14] 1.2 Silver - Last week: The domestic - foreign silver price spread continued to decline, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread also fluctuated and declined [25] - This week: Recommendation is to long COMEX and short SHFE as the London silver squeeze risk drives price increase and the external silver price is strongly supported [20][25] 2. Non - Ferrous Metals 2.1 Copper - Last week: LME inventory slightly increased, and the copper import window remained in a loss state [26] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [26] 2.2 Aluminum - Last week: Domestic aluminum price correction drove trading volume recovery, inventory declined but at a slower rate, and the LME inventory continued to decrease. The short - term exchange ratio was range - bound [31] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [31] 2.3 Zinc - Last week: The domestic zinc ingot export window opened, domestic inventory decreased, and LME inventory rose rapidly but remained at a low level [37] - This week: Recommendation is to short LME zinc and long SHFE zinc in a rolling manner [37] 2.4 Lead - Last week: Inventories rose slightly as smelter inventory was low, and canceled warrants for LME surged again during destocking [43] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [43] 2.5 Nickel - Last week: The import window was closed, with numerical fluctuations, and the extreme price difference situation improved significantly [49] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [49] 2.6 Tin - Last week: The domestic - foreign tin price ratio dropped, the spot tin import window was closed, and the import loss was 16,784 yuan/ton with no obvious spread driver [52] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [52] 3. Ferrous Metals 3.1 Iron Ore - Last week: The iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers [56] - This week: Suggestion is to hold [56] 4. Energy 4.1 Crude Oil - Last week: The SC - Brent spread edged higher [63] - This week: Suggestion is to hold as the Middle - East crude oil spot is stable, freight is highly volatile, and Russian oil supply is uncertain [62] 5. Agriculturals 5.1 Soybean - Last week: Import crushing margins were at the bottom and oscillating, and Sino - US trade relations improved [68] - This week: Recommendation is to long the external market and short the domestic market [68] 5.2 Sugar - Last week: Import crushing margins increased, and the external market is expected to be stronger than the domestic market in the medium - to - long term [72] - This week: Suggestion is to hold [72] 5.3 Natural Rubber - Last week: There was little change, and the spread was in the non - arbitrage range. Supply is expected to increase, but demand is weak [75] - This week: Suggestion is to hold [75] 6. Overseas Arbitrage 6.1 COMEX - LME Copper - Last week: The market absorbed the Fed's hawkish stance in December. With the upcoming Fed chair pick and stronger gold/silver prices, the COMEX - LME copper spread may rise. The expected US copper tariff limits the spread's downside [81] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for COMEX - LME copper arbitrage [81] 6.2 Brent - Dubai EFS - Last week: Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS rebounded [87] - This week: Suggestion is to hold as the Middle - East crude oil spot discount is oscillating and freight is highly volatile [86] 6.3 WTI - Brent - Last week: The WTI - Brent spread fluctuated [93] - This week: Suggestion is to hold as the US refinery operating rate is stabilizing and rising, refined oil inventory is low, and shale oil production is expected to be stable [92] 6.4 Natural Gas (TFU - HH) - Last week: The price gap continued to decline. Cold wave and export growth expectations pushed up US gas prices, while LNG supply increase pressured European gas prices [96] - This week: Suggestion is to hold. Be cautious about shorting as the spread is approaching the reasonable long - term contract spread [96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific strategies, some are rated as "Potential" (关注), such as the strategies for copper, zinc, and soybean in the "Opportunity to Watch" section [4]. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the cross - border arbitrage opportunities in the Chinese commodity futures market. It assesses various factors including inventory levels, price differentials, market supply and demand, and macro - economic policies in different sectors such as forex, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, and agriculturals. Based on these analyses, it provides trading suggestions for each commodity, mainly including "on hold" and specific long - short strategies [4][6][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Forex Market - Last week, the US Dollar Index rose because Powell signaled that a December rate cut is not certain. However, the Fed's expectation of strong US consumption may be overly optimistic, and it is expected to continue rate cuts in the first half of 2026. The US Dollar may rise in the short - term due to factors like a weak yen, but the potential for further increases is limited and there is no trend reversal [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals 3.2.1 Gold - Last week, the SHFE - COMEX and COMEX - LBMA gold price differentials fluctuated, with valuations at a neutral level. Currently, the gold price is in an adjustment period, and the arbitrage strategy is to hold [11]. 3.2.2 Silver - Last week, the silver price spread was range - bounded, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread recovered to neutrality. In the short - term, silver is expected to fluctuate, and the arbitrage strategy is to hold [16]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Copper - Last week, the spot discount for LME copper narrowed, LME copper inventories slightly decreased, while Chinese copper social inventories continued to accumulate, and the spot copper import window was at a loss. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [22]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - The traditional peak demand season has passed in China, with inventory accumulating, while LME inventory declined. The price ratio fluctuated within a range, and the cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [28]. 3.3.3 Zinc - Currently, the window for exporting Chinese zinc is open, and inventory accumulation has slowed. LME plans to limit large open interest in near contracts to ease the squeeze pressure. The strategy is to short LME zinc and long SHFE zinc [37]. 3.3.4 Lead - Last week, domestic social inventory rose slightly, smelters' inventory remained low, and LME lead inventory decreased with a high canceled warrants ratio. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [38]. 3.3.5 Nickel - The import window is currently closed, with price differences fluctuating within a range and the extreme difference situation improved. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [45]. 3.3.6 Tin - Last week, the tin ratio rebounded, the spot tin import window remained closed with an import loss of 16,292 yuan/ton, and the driving force behind the price spread was not obvious. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Iron Ore - Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers. The strategy is to hold [55]. 3.5 Energy 3.5.1 Crude Oil - Last week, the SC - Brent price spread edged higher. Due to relatively stable Chinese inventory, large freight fluctuations, and uncertain Russian crude supply, the strategy is to hold [59]. 3.5.2 Natural Gas (TFU - HH) - Last week, the spread fluctuated. The US gas price was pushed up by cold wave expectations and increased exports, while the European price declined due to a loose LNG market and warm temperature expectations. In the short - term, be cautious about shorting; in the medium - term, there is an expectation of the spread rising in winter [94]. 3.6 Agriculturals 3.6.1 Soybean - Last week, import crushing margins were at the bottom and oscillating. With the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the margins are expected to recover. The strategy is to long CBOT and short DCE [65]. 3.6.2 Sugar - Last week, import crushing margins increased, and the overseas market is expected to be stronger. The short - term strategy is to hold [69]. 3.6.3 Natural Rubber - Last week, there was little change, and the spread was in the non - arbitrage zone. With the approaching of the global tapping season, supply is expected to increase, but demand remains weak. The strategy is to hold [72]. 3.7 Overseas Arbitrage 3.7.1 COMEX - LME Copper - Last week, the spread between COMEX and LME copper widened due to the strong performance of COMEX gold and silver. In the short - term, gold and silver prices are expected to adjust, COMEX copper inventory will accumulate, and LME inventory will decline, so the spread may narrow. The strategy is to short COMEX and long LME [79]. 3.7.2 Brent - Dubai EFS - Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated lower. With a weakening month - spread and oscillating Middle - East crude oil spot discounts, the short - term guidance is limited, and the strategy is to hold [84]. 3.7.3 WTI - Brent - Last week, the WTI - Brent spread fluctuated. With a continuously weak US refinery utilization rate, reduced refined oil inventory pressure, and expected production increase, the spread driving force is limited, and the strategy is to hold [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to enter an adjustment phase. The price spread between COMEX and LME copper may narrow, and it is recommended to watch the opportunity of shorting COMEX copper and going long on LME copper [5][78]. - For zinc, the pressure of squeezing on LME zinc will ease, and it is suggested to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [5][38]. - The soybean market is still dominated by Sino - US trade relations. It is expected that the external market will be stronger than the domestic market, and it is recommended to go long on CBOT soybeans and short DCE soybeans [5]. - The Fed is expected to maintain its rate - cut policy in the first half of 2026. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index is limited and does not constitute a trend reversal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of gold fluctuated, and the valuation was at a neutral level. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [12]. - **Silver**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of silver fluctuated, and the overseas spread recovered to a neutral position. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [18]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, domestic copper inventories continued to accumulate, and the import window remained in a loss state. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [22]. - **Aluminum**: The traditional peak season has passed. Domestic aluminum ingots have started to accumulate slightly, and LME aluminum inventories have also increased. The short - term internal - external ratio remains range - bound. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [28]. - **Zinc**: Currently, the window for exporting Chinese zinc ingots to Southeast Asia and delivering to warehouses has opened, and domestic social inventories have started to decline. LME plans to introduce permanent rules to limit large near - month positions. It is recommended to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [38]. - **Lead**: The increase in domestic social inventories is limited, and smelter inventories are not high. LME lead inventories have decreased, and the ratio of cancelled warrants is relatively high. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [39]. - **Nickel**: The import window is closed, and the extreme price difference situation has improved significantly. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [46]. - **Tin**: Last week, the internal - external ratio of tin decreased, the spot import window remained closed, and the import loss was 15,516 yuan/ton. The driving force for the price spread is not obvious. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [50]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of iron ore remained in a narrow range with no obvious drivers. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [56]. 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price spread fluctuated. Due to factors such as intensified freight fluctuations and uncertainty in Russian crude oil supply, it is recommended to wait and see this week [59]. 3.5 Agricultures - **Soybean**: Last week, the crushing profit was at the bottom and fluctuated. With the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the crushing profit is expected to gradually recover. It is recommended to go long on the external market and short the domestic market [65]. - **Sugar**: Last week, the import crushing profit increased. In the medium - to - long - term, the domestic market is likely to outperform ICE. This week, it is recommended to mainly wait and see [69]. - **20 -号胶**: Last week, there was little change, and the price spread was in a non - arbitrage range. With the start of the tapping season globally, supply is expected to increase, but demand shows no improvement. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [72]. 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the price spread between COMEX and LME copper widened mainly due to the strong performance of COMEX gold and silver. In the short term, the spread may narrow, and it is recommended to watch the opportunity of shorting COMEX copper and going long on LME copper [5][78]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated lower. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production, and the monthly spread fluctuates more. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [83]. - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent price spread fluctuated. The refinery operating rate in the US weakened in October, the pressure on refined oil inventories eased, and crude oil imports were low. The driving force for the price spread is limited. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [89]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: Last week, the price spread weakened. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium term, as the winter in Northwest Europe is expected to be colder than in the US and European inventory replenishment is less sufficient than in the US, the winter price spread is expected to rise [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Potential [5] - Crude Oil: Potential [5] - Silver: On hold [5] - Copper: On hold [5] - Lead: On hold [5] - Zinc: On hold [5] Core Viewpoints - Maintains the view that the RMB will remain stable with a slight upward trend in the second half of the year, with the downside space around 7.05. The impact of the latest tariff threats on the RMB is likely to be less. Focus on the appreciation opportunity in the fourth quarter [6] - Recommends going long on SHFE Gold and short on COMEX Gold due to the low valuation of the gold price spread and the potential negative impact of escalating trade frictions on the RMB [5] - Suggests going long on Brent crude oil and shorting SC crude oil as domestic port inventories remain high, refinery processing volumes are under pressure, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil is weak [5] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the gold price differential fluctuated lower, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread declined. This week, recommends going long on the domestic - international gold price spread at a low level as the valuation of the gold price spread remains low and escalating trade frictions may weigh on the RMB [13][14] - **Silver**: Last week, the internal and external price spread of silver fluctuated downward, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread dropped sharply. This week, suggests waiting for the bullish opportunity after the situation eases as the short - term overseas price remains strong due to the shortage of London silver spot [20] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, Chinese copper inventories were de - stocked slowly, and the copper import profit window had a significant loss. This week, recommends gradually taking profit on the strategy of going long on LME copper and shorting SHFE copper [26] - **Aluminum**: Last week, the short - term domestic - international ratio remained range - bound with fluctuations, and the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots continued to accumulate. This week, suggests temporarily observing cross - market arbitrage [32][33] - **Zinc**: Last week, there was already a profit in the spot export of Chinese zinc ingots to Southeast Asia, and the delivery window for warehouse receipt submission in Southeast Asia was close to opening. This week, recommends closing the position of going long on LME zinc and shorting SHFE zinc [38] - **Lead**: Last week, previously affected recycled lead smelters resumed production, and as the delivery of the SHFE Lead 2510 approached, the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots was expected to increase. Overseas lead inventories started de - stocking again but remained at a high level. This week, suggests temporarily observing cross - market arbitrage [44][49] - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window was closed, with fluctuations within a numerical range, and the situation of extreme price differences improved significantly. This week, suggests temporarily observing cross - market arbitrage [50] - **Tin**: Last week, the tin ratio rebounded, the spot tin import window remained closed, the import loss was 19,251 yuan/ton, and the driving force behind the tin price spread was not obvious. This week, suggests temporarily observing cross - market arbitrage [54] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers. This week, recommends maintaining a wait - and - see attitude [60] Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price spread fluctuated. This week, recommends shorting SC and going long on Brent as China's inventories are at a high level, imports have slowed down since September, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil is weak. Hold the spread strategy during the contract rollover period and pay attention to freight risks [65][66] Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, import crushing margins were consolidating, and the Chinese market was expected to outperform ICE. This week, recommends short - term observation [71] - **Sugar**: Last week, import crushing margins edged lower, and the Chinese market was expected to outperform ICE in the medium to long term. This week, recommends short - term observation [75] - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there was little change, and the price spread remained stable. Globally, as the tapping season began, there was an expectation of increased supply, but the demand side showed no improvement. This week, recommends observation [78] Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the U.S. White House stated that refined copper was excluded from tariffs, which differed from market expectations, and the premium of COMEX copper over LME copper remained at a low level. This week, recommends observing the COMEX - LME copper arbitrage position [84] - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated. This week, recommends observation. Although OPEC+ is increasing production, the short - term medium and heavy crude oil may be supported by the profit of middle distillate refined oil, and the re - widening of the light - heavy oil price difference may need to wait. Pay attention to freight disturbances [89][90] - **Brent - WTI**: Last week, the Brent - WTI spread fluctuated. This week, recommends observation. The U.S. production remains resilient, and refined oil inventories are high, but the expected decline in U.S. production due to falling oil prices may support the U.S. fundamentals, and the spread will fluctuate [95][96] - **TTF - NYMEX NG M1**: Last week, the spread fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, both Europe and the U.S. are in the off - season for consumption, and freight performance is weak. This week, recommends short - term observation. In the medium term, the expected low temperature in north - western Europe in winter is stronger than that in the U.S., and the European inventory reserve adequacy rate is lower than that in the U.S., so the winter spread is expected to rise [99][100]