1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific strategies, some are rated as "Potential" (关注), such as the strategies for copper, zinc, and soybean in the "Opportunity to Watch" section [4]. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the cross - border arbitrage opportunities in the Chinese commodity futures market. It assesses various factors including inventory levels, price differentials, market supply and demand, and macro - economic policies in different sectors such as forex, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, and agriculturals. Based on these analyses, it provides trading suggestions for each commodity, mainly including "on hold" and specific long - short strategies [4][6][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Forex Market - Last week, the US Dollar Index rose because Powell signaled that a December rate cut is not certain. However, the Fed's expectation of strong US consumption may be overly optimistic, and it is expected to continue rate cuts in the first half of 2026. The US Dollar may rise in the short - term due to factors like a weak yen, but the potential for further increases is limited and there is no trend reversal [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals 3.2.1 Gold - Last week, the SHFE - COMEX and COMEX - LBMA gold price differentials fluctuated, with valuations at a neutral level. Currently, the gold price is in an adjustment period, and the arbitrage strategy is to hold [11]. 3.2.2 Silver - Last week, the silver price spread was range - bounded, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread recovered to neutrality. In the short - term, silver is expected to fluctuate, and the arbitrage strategy is to hold [16]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Copper - Last week, the spot discount for LME copper narrowed, LME copper inventories slightly decreased, while Chinese copper social inventories continued to accumulate, and the spot copper import window was at a loss. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [22]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - The traditional peak demand season has passed in China, with inventory accumulating, while LME inventory declined. The price ratio fluctuated within a range, and the cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [28]. 3.3.3 Zinc - Currently, the window for exporting Chinese zinc is open, and inventory accumulation has slowed. LME plans to limit large open interest in near contracts to ease the squeeze pressure. The strategy is to short LME zinc and long SHFE zinc [37]. 3.3.4 Lead - Last week, domestic social inventory rose slightly, smelters' inventory remained low, and LME lead inventory decreased with a high canceled warrants ratio. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [38]. 3.3.5 Nickel - The import window is currently closed, with price differences fluctuating within a range and the extreme difference situation improved. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [45]. 3.3.6 Tin - Last week, the tin ratio rebounded, the spot tin import window remained closed with an import loss of 16,292 yuan/ton, and the driving force behind the price spread was not obvious. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Iron Ore - Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers. The strategy is to hold [55]. 3.5 Energy 3.5.1 Crude Oil - Last week, the SC - Brent price spread edged higher. Due to relatively stable Chinese inventory, large freight fluctuations, and uncertain Russian crude supply, the strategy is to hold [59]. 3.5.2 Natural Gas (TFU - HH) - Last week, the spread fluctuated. The US gas price was pushed up by cold wave expectations and increased exports, while the European price declined due to a loose LNG market and warm temperature expectations. In the short - term, be cautious about shorting; in the medium - term, there is an expectation of the spread rising in winter [94]. 3.6 Agriculturals 3.6.1 Soybean - Last week, import crushing margins were at the bottom and oscillating. With the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the margins are expected to recover. The strategy is to long CBOT and short DCE [65]. 3.6.2 Sugar - Last week, import crushing margins increased, and the overseas market is expected to be stronger. The short - term strategy is to hold [69]. 3.6.3 Natural Rubber - Last week, there was little change, and the spread was in the non - arbitrage zone. With the approaching of the global tapping season, supply is expected to increase, but demand remains weak. The strategy is to hold [72]. 3.7 Overseas Arbitrage 3.7.1 COMEX - LME Copper - Last week, the spread between COMEX and LME copper widened due to the strong performance of COMEX gold and silver. In the short - term, gold and silver prices are expected to adjust, COMEX copper inventory will accumulate, and LME inventory will decline, so the spread may narrow. The strategy is to short COMEX and long LME [79]. 3.7.2 Brent - Dubai EFS - Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated lower. With a weakening month - spread and oscillating Middle - East crude oil spot discounts, the short - term guidance is limited, and the strategy is to hold [84]. 3.7.3 WTI - Brent - Last week, the WTI - Brent spread fluctuated. With a continuously weak US refinery utilization rate, reduced refined oil inventory pressure, and expected production increase, the spread driving force is limited, and the strategy is to hold [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to enter an adjustment phase. The price spread between COMEX and LME copper may narrow, and it is recommended to watch the opportunity of shorting COMEX copper and going long on LME copper [5][78]. - For zinc, the pressure of squeezing on LME zinc will ease, and it is suggested to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [5][38]. - The soybean market is still dominated by Sino - US trade relations. It is expected that the external market will be stronger than the domestic market, and it is recommended to go long on CBOT soybeans and short DCE soybeans [5]. - The Fed is expected to maintain its rate - cut policy in the first half of 2026. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index is limited and does not constitute a trend reversal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of gold fluctuated, and the valuation was at a neutral level. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [12]. - **Silver**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of silver fluctuated, and the overseas spread recovered to a neutral position. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [18]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, domestic copper inventories continued to accumulate, and the import window remained in a loss state. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [22]. - **Aluminum**: The traditional peak season has passed. Domestic aluminum ingots have started to accumulate slightly, and LME aluminum inventories have also increased. The short - term internal - external ratio remains range - bound. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [28]. - **Zinc**: Currently, the window for exporting Chinese zinc ingots to Southeast Asia and delivering to warehouses has opened, and domestic social inventories have started to decline. LME plans to introduce permanent rules to limit large near - month positions. It is recommended to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [38]. - **Lead**: The increase in domestic social inventories is limited, and smelter inventories are not high. LME lead inventories have decreased, and the ratio of cancelled warrants is relatively high. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [39]. - **Nickel**: The import window is closed, and the extreme price difference situation has improved significantly. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [46]. - **Tin**: Last week, the internal - external ratio of tin decreased, the spot import window remained closed, and the import loss was 15,516 yuan/ton. The driving force for the price spread is not obvious. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [50]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of iron ore remained in a narrow range with no obvious drivers. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [56]. 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price spread fluctuated. Due to factors such as intensified freight fluctuations and uncertainty in Russian crude oil supply, it is recommended to wait and see this week [59]. 3.5 Agricultures - **Soybean**: Last week, the crushing profit was at the bottom and fluctuated. With the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the crushing profit is expected to gradually recover. It is recommended to go long on the external market and short the domestic market [65]. - **Sugar**: Last week, the import crushing profit increased. In the medium - to - long - term, the domestic market is likely to outperform ICE. This week, it is recommended to mainly wait and see [69]. - **20 -号胶**: Last week, there was little change, and the price spread was in a non - arbitrage range. With the start of the tapping season globally, supply is expected to increase, but demand shows no improvement. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [72]. 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the price spread between COMEX and LME copper widened mainly due to the strong performance of COMEX gold and silver. In the short term, the spread may narrow, and it is recommended to watch the opportunity of shorting COMEX copper and going long on LME copper [5][78]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated lower. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production, and the monthly spread fluctuates more. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [83]. - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent price spread fluctuated. The refinery operating rate in the US weakened in October, the pressure on refined oil inventories eased, and crude oil imports were low. The driving force for the price spread is limited. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [89]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: Last week, the price spread weakened. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium term, as the winter in Northwest Europe is expected to be colder than in the US and European inventory replenishment is less sufficient than in the US, the winter price spread is expected to rise [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Potential [5] - Crude Oil: Potential [5] - Silver: On hold [5] - Copper: On hold [5] - Lead: On hold [5] - Zinc: On hold [5] Core Viewpoints - Maintains the view that the RMB will remain stable with a slight upward trend in the second half of the year, with the downside space around 7.05. The impact of the latest tariff threats on the RMB is likely to be less. Focus on the appreciation opportunity in the fourth quarter [6] - Recommends going long on SHFE Gold and short on COMEX Gold due to the low valuation of the gold price spread and the potential negative impact of escalating trade frictions on the RMB [5] - Suggests going long on Brent crude oil and shorting SC crude oil as domestic port inventories remain high, refinery processing volumes are under pressure, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil is weak [5] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the gold price differential fluctuated lower, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread declined. This week, recommends going long on the domestic - international gold price spread at a low level as the valuation of the gold price spread remains low and escalating trade frictions may weigh on the RMB [13][14] - **Silver**: Last week, the internal and external price spread of silver fluctuated downward, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread dropped sharply. This week, suggests waiting for the bullish opportunity after the situation eases as the short - term overseas price remains strong due to the shortage of London silver spot [20] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, Chinese copper inventories were de - stocked slowly, and the copper import profit window had a significant loss. This week, recommends gradually taking profit on the strategy of going long on LME copper and shorting SHFE copper [26] - **Aluminum**: Last week, the short - term domestic - international ratio remained range - bound with fluctuations, and the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots continued to accumulate. This week, suggests temporarily observing cross - market arbitrage [32][33] - **Zinc**: Last week, there was already a profit in the spot export of Chinese zinc ingots to Southeast Asia, and the delivery window for warehouse receipt submission in Southeast Asia was close to opening. This week, recommends closing the position of going long on LME zinc and shorting SHFE zinc [38] - **Lead**: Last week, previously affected recycled lead smelters resumed production, and as the delivery of the SHFE Lead 2510 approached, the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots was expected to increase. Overseas lead inventories started de - stocking again but remained at a high level. This week, suggests temporarily observing cross - market arbitrage [44][49] - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window was closed, with fluctuations within a numerical range, and the situation of extreme price differences improved significantly. This week, suggests temporarily observing cross - market arbitrage [50] - **Tin**: Last week, the tin ratio rebounded, the spot tin import window remained closed, the import loss was 19,251 yuan/ton, and the driving force behind the tin price spread was not obvious. This week, suggests temporarily observing cross - market arbitrage [54] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers. This week, recommends maintaining a wait - and - see attitude [60] Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price spread fluctuated. This week, recommends shorting SC and going long on Brent as China's inventories are at a high level, imports have slowed down since September, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil is weak. Hold the spread strategy during the contract rollover period and pay attention to freight risks [65][66] Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, import crushing margins were consolidating, and the Chinese market was expected to outperform ICE. This week, recommends short - term observation [71] - **Sugar**: Last week, import crushing margins edged lower, and the Chinese market was expected to outperform ICE in the medium to long term. This week, recommends short - term observation [75] - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there was little change, and the price spread remained stable. Globally, as the tapping season began, there was an expectation of increased supply, but the demand side showed no improvement. This week, recommends observation [78] Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the U.S. White House stated that refined copper was excluded from tariffs, which differed from market expectations, and the premium of COMEX copper over LME copper remained at a low level. This week, recommends observing the COMEX - LME copper arbitrage position [84] - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated. This week, recommends observation. Although OPEC+ is increasing production, the short - term medium and heavy crude oil may be supported by the profit of middle distillate refined oil, and the re - widening of the light - heavy oil price difference may need to wait. Pay attention to freight disturbances [89][90] - **Brent - WTI**: Last week, the Brent - WTI spread fluctuated. This week, recommends observation. The U.S. production remains resilient, and refined oil inventories are high, but the expected decline in U.S. production due to falling oil prices may support the U.S. fundamentals, and the spread will fluctuate [95][96] - **TTF - NYMEX NG M1**: Last week, the spread fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, both Europe and the U.S. are in the off - season for consumption, and freight performance is weak. This week, recommends short - term observation. In the medium term, the expected low temperature in north - western Europe in winter is stronger than that in the U.S., and the European inventory reserve adequacy rate is lower than that in the U.S., so the winter spread is expected to rise [99][100]