1 亏损的真相：短期波动难撼长期信仰 林园将亏损归因于持仓标的的短期价格波动，并明确表示不会因此调整核心策略。他始终聚焦具备稳定 需求的行业，尤其是与"嘴巴经济"紧密相关的消费与医药领域。白酒、快消品、医药……这些行业的需 求刚性如同"铁律"，无论经济冷暖，人们吃饭、喝水、就医的需求不会消失。林园曾直言："我只投资 自己能看懂、能算清楚未来几年账的公司。"这种"能力圈"原则，让他在科技股狂欢时保持冷静，在地 产股暴跌时不为所动。 来源 投资与资管 根据私募排排网公布的数据，2025年林园投资私募大概率会出现年度亏损。细究其投资逻辑，会发现这 场亏损背后，是一场关于"长期主义"与"市场周期"的深刻博弈。 0 0 2 科技股：看得见的未来，握不住的命运 林园并非不看好科技，他承认人工智能是未来方向，但"几乎不会主动介入"。原因很简单：科技行业的 创新充满不确定性，龙头企业更迭如走马灯。他曾坦言，即便买了科技股，也会"愁得睡不着觉"，因 为"命运不掌握在自己手上"。这种对"确定性"的极致追求，让他选择远离科技股的狂欢，转而拥抱消费 与医药的"慢变量"。 0 3 银行、互联网、地产：为何坚决"不碰"？ 林园的投资清单 ...

责编：万健祎 校对： 赵燕 版权声明 投资是对未来趋势的判断和把握，未来的世界到底需要什么？"第十九届上市公司价值论坛暨2025新质生 产力巡礼宜宾行"活动上，深圳市林园投资管理有限责任公司董事长林园做主题分享时表示，投资要抓住 人的基本需求，投资那些能让人快乐、长寿的产品，所以他坚持投资"嘴巴经济"，服务于人的健康。 有的人觉得林园"固执"，但林园则表示，他走访过全球很多上市公司，涉及"嘴巴经济"的企业都活得挺好，企 业有盈利，才能为资本市场创造价值，为投资者创造价值。林园称自己在2003年前后第一次来宜宾，以后每年 都会来，因为投资了五粮液，他所持有的五粮液到现在一直没有卖。 林园倡导长期理性投资，构建行业良性生态，奠定价值投资的基石。他坚信，中国资本市场会越来越好，中国 资本市场也会像中国制造业一样，竞争力在全球范围内越来越强。 林园表示，不要担心中国的竞争力，也不用担心中国股市不好。对于一些传统行业来说，今天的（股价）位置 非常便宜，拐点到来的时间已经不远了，到那个时候，中国资本市场的价值会自然凸显出来。林园反复强调， 他的投资原则是看企业的真正价值，比如公司能不能赚钱，负债情况如何。 林园分析称，随 ...

林园倡导长期理性投资，构建行业良性生态，奠定价值投资的基石。他坚信，中国资本市场会越来越 好，中国资本市场也会像中国制造业一样，竞争力在全球范围内越来越强。 林园表示，不要担心中国的竞争力，也不用担心中国股市不好。对于一些传统行业来说，今天的（股 价）位置非常便宜，拐点到来的时间已经不远了，到那个时候，中国资本市场的价值会自然凸显出来。 林园反复强调，他的投资原则是看企业的真正价值，比如公司能不能赚钱，负债情况如何。 林园分析称，随着三重底部共振，A股长期配置窗口已现：在估值、政策、资金三底叠加下，市场下探 空间有限。从估值上看，沪深300市盈率处近十年20%分位以下，股息率持续高于国债，权益资产吸引 力凸显；从政策上看，减持新规、分红指引等政策密集落地，生态优化信号明确；在资金方面，当前理 财收益率跌破3%，两融余额占比处历史低位，无风险利率下行构筑了资金流入条件。 （文章来源：证券时报） 投资是对未来趋势的判断和把握，未来的世界到底需要什么？"第十九届上市公司价值论坛暨2025新质 生产力巡礼宜宾行"活动上，深圳市林园投资管理有限责任公司董事长林园做主题分享时表示，投资要 抓住人的基本需求，投资那些能让人 ...

证券时报记者 唐强 投资是对未来趋势的判断和把握，未来的世界到底需要什么？"第十九届上市公司价值论坛暨2025新质生产力巡礼 宜宾行"活动上，深圳市林园投资管理有限责任公司董事长林园做主题分享时表示，投资要抓住人的基本需求，投 资那些能让人快乐、长寿的产品，所以他坚持投资"嘴巴经济"，服务于人的健康。 林园分析称，随着三重底部共振，A股长期配置窗口已现：在估值、政策、资金三底叠加下，市场下探空间有限。 从估值上看，沪深300市盈率处近十年20%分位以下，股息率持续高于国债，权益资产吸引力凸显；从政策上看， 减持新规、分红指引等政策密集落地，生态优化信号明确；在资金方面，当前理财收益率跌破3%，两融余额占比 处历史低位，无风险利率下行构筑了资金流入条件。 林园倡导长期理性投资，构建行业良性生态，奠定价值投资的基石。他坚信，中国资本市场会越来越好，中国资 本市场也会像中国制造业一样，竞争力在全球范围内越来越强。 林园表示，不要担心中国的竞争力，也不用担心中国股市不好。对于一些传统行业来说，今天的（股价）位置非 常便宜，拐点到来的时间已经不远了，到那个时候，中国资本市场的价值会自然凸显出来。林园反复强调，他的 投资 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of investment as a judgment and grasp of future trends, particularly focusing on basic human needs and products that enhance comfort and longevity [1] - The speaker highlights significant opportunities in consumption and the "silver economy," suggesting a growing market for products catering to the aging population [1] - The company has made a strategic investment in the health-oriented sector, specifically mentioning an investment in Wuliangye, which has not been sold or incurred losses [1]

Group 1 - The core strategy of the company focuses on consumer-related businesses, particularly those linked to the "mouth economy" [1] - These businesses have clear characteristics: products with a shelf life and do not require massive investments to sustain growth [1] - The market for food and consumer industries can quickly adjust supply and demand, making it easier to navigate compared to fixed asset investments like highways and real estate [1]

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes that emerging industries like AI, biotechnology, and renewable energy will eventually face increased competition and capacity expansion, which is a natural market progression [3][10] - The company acknowledges the potential of new industries but stresses the importance of profitability and survival capability from an investment perspective, indicating a preference for traditional industries [3][13] - Traditional industries have experienced a downturn, but leading companies have maintained their positions due to scale, capital, and management advantages, which are reflected in their stock prices [4][16] Group 2 - The company believes that core indices like the CSI 300 and A50 are currently undervalued and can support the fundamentals of the Chinese economy, presenting a good investment opportunity [3][17] - The focus remains on consumer-related sectors, particularly those linked to the "mouth economy," which are characterized by quicker market corrections compared to fixed asset investments [3][19] - The company maintains that industries related to food and health will continue to have persistent demand, making them attractive for investment [3][22][44] Group 3 - The company expresses caution regarding the high uncertainty in new industries, which often require significant investment and have longer cycles to profitability [4][14] - The investment strategy prioritizes companies that can provide consistent profits and have a sustainable business model, rather than those that rely on speculative growth [4][51] - The company highlights the importance of understanding the long-term viability of investments, particularly in traditional sectors that have proven resilient over time [4][56]

Core Insights - The performance of Lin Yuan's investment products has significantly lagged behind the CSI 300 index, with 19 products failing to outperform it, and 6 products recording losses year-to-date [1][2][3] - The current market trend shows a stark divergence, with technology sectors like AI, computing, and semiconductors leading, while traditional sectors such as liquor, real estate, and coal are underperforming [1][3] - Lin Yuan's long-term focus on consumer and pharmaceutical sectors has negatively impacted performance, as these sectors have shown weakness compared to the booming technology and cyclical sectors [3][5] Performance Analysis - As of September 29, the CSI 300 index has a year-to-date increase of 17.4%, while Lin Yuan's best-performing product, "Lin Yuan 218," achieved a return of only 31.14%, falling short of the index's 42.14% [1][2] - Among Lin Yuan's 19 products, only 9 have positive returns over the past year, while 10 have negative returns, indicating a significant underperformance [1][2] - Specific products like "Lin Yuan 173" have seen a decline of 24% since inception, contrasting sharply with the CSI 300's decline of only 5.35% during the same period [2][3] Market Strategy and Trends - Lin Yuan's recent investments in technology stocks have been described as "negligible," and the decision to invest in the STAR Market was largely driven by passive requirements rather than strategic choice [3][4] - The broader private equity landscape is experiencing a shift, with quantitative funds outperforming discretionary funds, highlighting a mismatch in strategy and market conditions for many traditional investment firms [4][5] - The performance disparity among private equity firms is attributed to their inability to adapt to the current market dynamics, particularly in capturing opportunities in technology and cyclical sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market appears bullish on the surface, but underlying currents indicate significant divergence among investment styles and logic, leading to a "purging" of weaker stocks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is an unprecedented level of divergence between sectors, with high-valued tech stocks remaining strong while blue-chip and white-horse stocks decline sharply [1] - Approximately 70% of individual stocks are either stagnant or declining, highlighting a symbolic distinction between "old stocks" and "new stocks" [1] Group 2: Performance of Key Stocks - "Old stocks" such as liquor, real estate, coal, electricity, banks, and insurance are underperforming, while "new stocks" in AI, computing power, semiconductors, and robotics are thriving [3] - For instance, stocks like Midea Group and Kweichow Moutai have seen minimal gains or losses, while companies like Shenghong Technology and Dongxin Co. have experienced significant increases of 696.45% and 407.03%, respectively [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is facing a downturn, with a 0.9% decline in revenue to 239.7 billion yuan in the first half of the year, and a 5% drop in the second quarter due to a "ban on alcohol" [6][7] - Only 6 out of 23 listed liquor companies reported positive revenue and net profit growth, indicating a severe contraction in the sector [6] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly shifting focus from traditional sectors to technology, with notable figures like Lin Yuan publicly acknowledging investments in AI and semiconductor companies [8][9] - The current bull market is characterized by a lack of fundamentals, with capital flows driven more by narrative and "mind monopoly" rather than earnings per share (EPS) [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The AI and semiconductor sectors are seen as having the potential for strong customer loyalty and ecological monopolies, similar to established brands in the liquor industry [12] - However, there are concerns about the sustainability of current valuations, as many companies in these sectors may not survive the inevitable market corrections [16]