【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明 示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇11月21日｜百亿大佬林园近日称：我们公司的策略，仍然集中在那些和消费相关、与"嘴巴经济"相关的企业。它们的特点很清晰：产品有保质期，不 需要巨额投入来维持增长；一旦产能过多，市场很快就会自我调整，不像、高速公路这种固定资产，一旦投下去就很难纠正。说得简单一点，房子盖多了， 你没法凭空造个人进去住；路修多了，它的亏损就是亏损。但食品、消费这些行业则不同，供需的调整更快，市场纠错能力更强，也是我们认为在当下更容 易把握的方向。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5( | | --- | --- | --- | | 3834.89 | 12538.07 | 1377.3 | | -96.16 -2.45% -442.75 -3.41% -68.14 -4 | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全/ | | 1285.83 | 2920.08 | ...

最新金句： 1.人工智能、生物科技、新能源等领域，随着时间推移，迟早也会走到产能扩张、竞争加剧的那一步， 这是市场规律，只是早晚的问题。 这位一贯言辞犀利的基金经理每次发声，必然引来各路围观，他的投资表述总是让人眼前一亮，甚至是 与"主流"背离。 尤其是"老登股"争论发酵之后，林园多次替传统企业"说话"。这一次，他不仅继续"站台"，而是将自己 的思考掰开揉碎，从底层逻辑到未来趋势，把这份"执念"讲得更彻底。 整场发言看似平静，林园却句句带锋芒。 林园把一些看似朴素，却被市场忽略的基本常识重新摆到台面上，可以说是对"反对派"一次不动声色的 回击；也是对当下追逐新概念、新赛道情绪的一次冷静提醒。 作者 |崔峻阳 编辑 | 袁畅 11月20日下午，百亿私募大佬林园发声！ 2.新行业，我承认它们的方向肯定没问题，但从投资角度，我更关注这些企业能否真正跑出确定性的盈 利和生存能力。 3.过去的繁荣期里，资金大量流向城市建设和房地产，当这种资产价格出现下行时，就会让人直观地感 觉"资产缩水了"。 4.传统行业过去几年确实低迷，但头部公司凭借规模、资金和管理优势仍然能撑住。而且，那些低迷在 股价中已经充分反映。 5.食品、 ...

Core Insights - The performance of Lin Yuan's investment products has significantly lagged behind the CSI 300 index, with 19 products failing to outperform it, and 6 products recording losses year-to-date [1][2][3] - The current market trend shows a stark divergence, with technology sectors like AI, computing, and semiconductors leading, while traditional sectors such as liquor, real estate, and coal are underperforming [1][3] - Lin Yuan's long-term focus on consumer and pharmaceutical sectors has negatively impacted performance, as these sectors have shown weakness compared to the booming technology and cyclical sectors [3][5] Performance Analysis - As of September 29, the CSI 300 index has a year-to-date increase of 17.4%, while Lin Yuan's best-performing product, "Lin Yuan 218," achieved a return of only 31.14%, falling short of the index's 42.14% [1][2] - Among Lin Yuan's 19 products, only 9 have positive returns over the past year, while 10 have negative returns, indicating a significant underperformance [1][2] - Specific products like "Lin Yuan 173" have seen a decline of 24% since inception, contrasting sharply with the CSI 300's decline of only 5.35% during the same period [2][3] Market Strategy and Trends - Lin Yuan's recent investments in technology stocks have been described as "negligible," and the decision to invest in the STAR Market was largely driven by passive requirements rather than strategic choice [3][4] - The broader private equity landscape is experiencing a shift, with quantitative funds outperforming discretionary funds, highlighting a mismatch in strategy and market conditions for many traditional investment firms [4][5] - The performance disparity among private equity firms is attributed to their inability to adapt to the current market dynamics, particularly in capturing opportunities in technology and cyclical sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market appears bullish on the surface, but underlying currents indicate significant divergence among investment styles and logic, leading to a "purging" of weaker stocks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is an unprecedented level of divergence between sectors, with high-valued tech stocks remaining strong while blue-chip and white-horse stocks decline sharply [1] - Approximately 70% of individual stocks are either stagnant or declining, highlighting a symbolic distinction between "old stocks" and "new stocks" [1] Group 2: Performance of Key Stocks - "Old stocks" such as liquor, real estate, coal, electricity, banks, and insurance are underperforming, while "new stocks" in AI, computing power, semiconductors, and robotics are thriving [3] - For instance, stocks like Midea Group and Kweichow Moutai have seen minimal gains or losses, while companies like Shenghong Technology and Dongxin Co. have experienced significant increases of 696.45% and 407.03%, respectively [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is facing a downturn, with a 0.9% decline in revenue to 239.7 billion yuan in the first half of the year, and a 5% drop in the second quarter due to a "ban on alcohol" [6][7] - Only 6 out of 23 listed liquor companies reported positive revenue and net profit growth, indicating a severe contraction in the sector [6] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly shifting focus from traditional sectors to technology, with notable figures like Lin Yuan publicly acknowledging investments in AI and semiconductor companies [8][9] - The current bull market is characterized by a lack of fundamentals, with capital flows driven more by narrative and "mind monopoly" rather than earnings per share (EPS) [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The AI and semiconductor sectors are seen as having the potential for strong customer loyalty and ecological monopolies, similar to established brands in the liquor industry [12] - However, there are concerns about the sustainability of current valuations, as many companies in these sectors may not survive the inevitable market corrections [16]