证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20251222 2026 年转债策略：从收益增强转向风险平衡 2025 年 12 月 22 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 董含星 执业证书：S0600524120006 donghx@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《降息交易陷入纠结，市场静待"圣 诞老人"行情》 2025-12-21 《政策退坡和基数抬升下商品消费延 续承压》 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 24 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 核心观点：2025 年转债市场呈现"平价和溢价率双击"的大贝塔行情， 展望 2026 年"高估值+强赎倾向+次新走妖"或将成为自身掣肘，转债 资产的定位应当从"权益替代"转向"债市补充收益"。正股层面，慢牛 预期下平价或仍可成为正向收益贡献，但各主线的交易逻辑逐步发生改 变，也将影响转债交易特性，一方面科技成长逐步从"0-1"向"1-N" 过渡，市场也将从"主题投资普涨"过渡到"去伪存真、产业链供需重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fixed income market is facing challenges due to compressed yields, prompting fund managers to adopt new strategies for stable returns, including enhanced trading capabilities and a focus on equity markets for additional gains [1][2][4]. Group 1: Trading Strategies - The importance of trading ability has increased for fund managers in the fixed income sector, as traditional "buy and hold" strategies yield lower returns [1][3]. - The team employs quantitative methods to monitor the duration of bond funds daily, allowing for dynamic adjustments to portfolio duration based on market conditions [2][3]. - The introduction of more trading tools, such as expanding the list of trading partners and integrating third-party trading software, is aimed at improving operational efficiency [3]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The new mixed bond fund, CITIC Prudential Hui Li Bond, aims to create a low-volatility "fixed income plus" product, with a portion of investments allocated to stable-performing equity funds [2][4]. - The fund manager has established strict operational rules for equity positions, including initial allocation ratios and thresholds for profit-taking and rebalancing [2][3]. - There is a growing emphasis on capturing opportunities in the equity market, particularly in stable and mature active equity funds that employ dividend and turnaround strategies [3][4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to policy uncertainties, but recent interest rate cuts by the central bank may provide support for economic stability [4]. - The short to medium-term bonds are viewed as having higher certainty, while long-term rates are influenced by various factors, leading to greater uncertainty [4]. - The convertible bond market is currently at a neutral valuation, with potential upside due to lower implied volatility compared to underlying stocks, focusing on balanced convertible bonds in sectors like AI and robotics [4].

Core Viewpoint - The revaluation of Chinese assets is driven by technological innovation, macroeconomic policies, industrial environment, and valuation levels, with a particular focus on AI technology as a significant catalyst for change [2][3][4]. Group 1: Drivers of Asset Revaluation - Technological innovation, exemplified by DeepSeek in the AI sector, is a key factor driving the revaluation of Chinese assets, showcasing China's capabilities in manufacturing and technology [2]. - The macroeconomic policy environment is improving, with the government signaling a shift to a "dual easing" cycle, which is expected to stabilize the economy and improve corporate profitability [3]. - Industrial policies are revitalizing market confidence, particularly in the private sector, which is crucial for economic growth and investment [3]. Group 2: Valuation Characteristics - Current asset valuations in China are at historical lows, with broad indices and major industries undervalued compared to international peers, creating an attractive investment opportunity [4]. - The combination of low valuations and improving fundamentals is drawing global investors to reassess the investment value of the Chinese market [4]. Group 3: International Market Context - The global market's adjustments, including a weakening dollar and volatility in U.S. stocks, are enhancing the comparative advantages of Chinese equities [5][6]. - The current economic uncertainty in the U.S. is prompting capital to flow out of American markets, potentially benefiting emerging markets like China [6][7]. Group 4: AI Sector Potential - The AI sector in China is characterized by low-cost advantages, an open-source ecosystem, and ongoing application innovations, indicating significant growth potential [8][9]. - The transition from concept validation to commercial realization in AI is expected to drive performance in the next 1-3 years, marking a shift towards earnings-driven investment [9]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Three categories of industries are identified for potential investment: those driven by policy stimulus, those with cleared supply-side issues, and those with clear demand-side support [10][11][12]. - A phased investment strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors with immediate policy impacts, followed by those with supply-side adjustments, and finally, long-term growth sectors in technology [12].