2026年伊始，"反内卷"已成为中国经济政策的一条清晰主线。这一战略导向，正从宏观叙事迅速下沉至 具体产业，尤以产能过剩、竞争激烈的制造业领域为甚。在基础化工板块，大炼化行业无疑是"内卷"的 典型样本——持续数年的产能扩张已将PTA、聚酯等环节推入恶性竞争的泥潭。2025年10月，工信部召 集头部企业召开产业发展座谈会，明确要求提交产能、产量及反内卷措施建议，这一标志性事件，正式 拉开了行业从"规模竞赛"向"高质量发展"转型的大幕。在此历史性拐点上，曾风光无限的千亿巨头东方 盛虹，正因其独特的扩张路径与财务结构，陷入一场异常艰难的被动局面，其困境折射出整个行业在出 清之年所面临的共同挑战。 扩张之困：在投资高峰撞上"内卷"拐点 2024年年报数据清晰地揭示了这一战略与周期错配的代价。在同行普遍承压但尚能维持微利或可控亏损 的背景下，盛虹归母净利润巨亏近23亿元，同比下滑超420%，净利润率跌至-22.84%，在主要竞争对手 中表现最为惨淡。这并非简单的经营不善，而是其在行业全链条同时面临价格挤压与需求疲软之时，背 负着最沉重的资产包袱。当行业进入"内卷"深水区，盛虹"大而全"的布局未能及时转化为"强而优"的竞 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the convertible bond market in 2025 is expected to experience a "double hit" of parity and premium rates, transitioning from "equity replacement" to "debt market supplementary income" in 2026 [1][2] - The report anticipates that the supply of convertible bonds will continue to shrink by 5.3% to 27.6% in 2026, with a notable increase in the issuance of convertible bonds from the ChiNext board, which may provide quality supply in the next two years [1][8] - Demand for convertible bonds is driven by the pursuit of elastic products, with significant growth in the scale of secondary bond funds and the potential for primary bond funds to increase their positions [1][19] Group 2 - The valuation outlook suggests that the premium rate for convertible bonds may not significantly rise, as the current 30% premium rate implies expectations of at least a 30% increase in the underlying stock [1][36] - The report highlights that the convertible bond market may see localized profit opportunities, particularly if the underlying stock market maintains a slow bull trend, with a focus on sectors such as technology and new energy [1][42] - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes the importance of focusing on industry rotation and individual bond marginal changes, recommending a concentrated position in core alpha opportunities [1][48]

Group 1 - The demand for glyphosate remains strong, with orders for formulations in overseas markets such as Africa continuing to be released, leading to a price increase to 26,899 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous week [1][2] - The gross profit for glyphosate has risen to 3,964.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 239 yuan/ton compared to last week [1][2] - The weekly production of glyphosate is reported at 8,600 tons, an increase of 18.71% from the previous week, while inventory has decreased by 0.07 million tons to 27,800 tons [2] Group 2 - The prices of R32 and other third-generation refrigerants have increased, with R32 rising by 1,000 yuan/ton to 58,500 yuan/ton, driven by steady demand due to high summer temperatures and supply constraints from quota policies [2] - The petrochemical industry in South Korea is facing a supply surplus, prompting the government to require major companies to submit reduction plans for their naphtha cracking capacity by the end of the year [3] - The Chinese petrochemical industry is expected to see a reduction in refining capacity and outdated equipment, increasing attention on the refining sector [3] Group 3 - The civil explosives industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion, with several infrastructure projects expected to boost domestic demand [4] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is anticipated to help civil explosive companies expand their overseas markets [4] - The agricultural chemicals sector is facing potential supply disruptions due to safety production accidents at key enterprises, with a focus on companies like Yangnong Chemical and Xingfa Group [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, particularly for refrigerants and glyphosate, with a focus on the refining sector due to policy catalysts [1][4]. Core Insights - Glyphosate prices continue to rise, driven by strong downstream demand and sufficient orders from overseas markets, with the price reaching 26,899 CNY/ton, an increase of 200 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][17]. - The demand for refrigerants, particularly R32, is increasing due to high summer temperatures, with R32 prices rising by 1,000 CNY/ton to 58,500 CNY/ton [4][32]. - The refining industry is gaining attention due to policy changes in South Korea and China, which may lead to capacity reductions and increased operational efficiency [4][5]. Summary by Sections (1) Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - The report tracks significant price changes in various chemical products, with notable increases in acrylic acid and PTA, while some products like tetrachloroethylene saw declines [13][14]. (2) Polyurethane: MDI and TDI Price Trends - MDI prices have decreased due to weak demand from end-users, while TDI prices have also dropped amid seasonal demand pressures [15][16]. (3) Agricultural Chemicals: Glyphosate and Urea Price Increases - Glyphosate prices are on the rise, with a reported weekly production of 8,600 tons and a slight decrease in inventory levels [17][21]. - Urea and potassium chloride prices have also increased, attributed to export agreements and tight supply conditions [21][25]. (4) Fluorochemicals: R32 and Refrigerant Price Increases - R32 and other third-generation refrigerants have seen price increases due to steady demand and supply constraints [26][32]. (5) Tire Industry: Rubber and Additive Price Movements - The report notes fluctuations in rubber prices, with a slight increase in styrene-butadiene rubber and stable prices for other additives [34][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance has been under pressure due to falling oil prices, with a potential bottom reversal in the refining sector expected as "anti-involution" policies are promoted [1][7] - The company reported a revenue of 103.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.05 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year [4][5] - The report highlights the gradual production of new capacities and the ongoing development of high-value-added new material industrial chains [6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 46.9 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year and 17.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 999 million yuan, down 47% year-on-year and 51% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - Brent crude oil averaged 66.76 USD per barrel in Q2 2025, down 22% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company is expected to have net profits of 8.3 billion, 9.7 billion, and 10.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.18, 1.38, and 1.52 yuan [8][9] Industry Outlook - The "anti-involution" policies initiated in 2024 are expected to improve market competition and reduce vicious price competition in the refining industry, leading to a potential recovery in the sector's profitability [7] - The report emphasizes the shift in the petrochemical industry towards high-value-added transformations, indicating a new phase in policy direction [7] Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027 downwards, with expected net profits of 8.3 billion, 9.7 billion, and 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% reduction for 2025 [8] - The company is projected to maintain a high dividend policy, aiming to create a "growth + return" type of listed company [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The chemical sector is currently in a bottoming phase, influenced by macroeconomic factors and overcapacity, with performance fluctuating within a range of ±10% year-on-year. Certain sub-sectors like refrigerants, pesticides, fertilizers, and modified plastics are performing well, showing resilience against macroeconomic impacts [2][47]. Company-Specific Insights Zhenhua Co., Ltd. - Zhenhua's net profit for Q1 2025 was 117 million yuan, a 37% year-on-year increase. The company is expected to see significant growth in Q2 due to strong demand for metallic chromium and high-temperature alloys, with annual profits potentially reaching 1.5 to 1.6 billion yuan following capacity expansion [1][3][4][7]. Refrigerant Industry - The refrigerant market has outperformed expectations, with leading companies like Juhua and Sanmei reporting substantial profit increases (Juhua's net profit grew by 108% and Sanmei by 178% in 2024). The average price of refrigerants has risen significantly, with some products like R32 exceeding 50,000 yuan per ton [1][8][9][10][11]. Agricultural Chemicals - The agricultural chemicals sector has shown strong performance, driven by cost support and export demand. Companies like Yangnong Chemical have increased operational loads to boost profits. The focus is on the impact of export policies on phosphate fertilizers [1][15][16][17]. Polyester Filament Industry - The polyester filament industry had a good Q1 but faces pressures from falling oil prices and uncertain tariff policies. As oil prices stabilize, market elasticity may increase [1][21][22][23]. Refining Sector - Companies like Rongsheng and Hengli in the refining sector saw significant profit improvements in Q1 due to a rebound in crude oil cracking margins. The low oil prices positively impacted downstream demand, helping to reduce costs and increase profits [1][24][25]. Future Trends and Strategies - The chemical sector is advised to focus on sub-sectors with low correlation to trade wars, such as refrigerants and new materials. Investors are encouraged to wait for low oil price points to optimize investment opportunities [2][5][6]. Additional Insights - The refrigerant industry is characterized by stable demand and pricing power held by leading companies, making it less sensitive to economic downturns. The potential for significant price increases remains, with a long cycle expected [9][10][11]. - The agricultural sector is expected to maintain growth, particularly in the phosphate fertilizer market, contingent on favorable export policies [17][40]. - The tire industry faces challenges from tariffs and is adapting through price increases and strategic market positioning [44][45]. Conclusion - The chemical industry presents various investment opportunities, particularly in sectors with strong fundamentals and less exposure to macroeconomic volatility. Companies with independent growth narratives, like Zhenhua, are highlighted as having significant profit potential [2][6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refining industry is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with international crude oil prices rising due to geopolitical factors and declining inventories, while domestic refining product prices are generally falling due to weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Refining Sector Performance - The international crude oil market is influenced by U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, as well as OPEC+ production cuts, leading to a 2.96% week-on-week increase in Brent crude oil prices to $73.35 per barrel [2]. - Domestic refined oil prices are declining, contrasting with rising overseas prices, primarily due to weaker-than-expected terminal demand and high refinery operating rates, resulting in slow market inventory digestion [2]. Group 2: Chemical Product Prices - Prices for polyethylene, polypropylene, and other polyolefin products are generally declining, with EVA and pure benzene price spreads continuing to narrow [3]. - Weak demand for styrene has led to further price declines, while products like acrylonitrile and PC maintain stable prices but face squeezed profit margins due to raw material costs [3]. - The MMA market is under pressure from expectations of new capacity coming online, leading to weakened prices and price spreads [3]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Chain - The upstream PX and PTA prices are slightly rising due to support from increasing crude oil prices, while the downstream polyester filament faces dual pressures from increased supply and weak demand [4]. - Weaving enterprises are experiencing high fabric inventory levels, and seasonal weakness in orders for lightweight fabrics is causing low production and sales rates for filament, leading to weak price performance [4]. - The transfer of profits within the industry chain towards the downstream is hindered, highlighting the lack of recovery in terminal consumption [4]. Group 4: Market Structural Divergence - Sulfur prices have recently risen significantly due to tightening supply and demand, contrasting with the general trend of declining refining product prices [5]. - Major players like Sinopec, PetroChina, and Rongsheng Petrochemical dominate the sulfur production market, holding over 70% market share, benefiting from economies of scale and cost advantages [5]. Group 5: Company Performance Divergence - Stock performance among six major private refining companies shows significant divergence, with Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.22%) and Xin Fengming (+1.70%) seeing stock price increases, reflecting market recognition of their advantages in niche segments [6]. - Conversely, companies like Dongfang Shenghong (-2.26%) are negatively impacted by net outflows of main funds, indicating a competitive landscape that is increasingly favoring leading firms [6].