通信 业 2026 年 01 月 25 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -26% 0% 26% 53% 79% 106% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 《重视硅光和 CPO 链投资机会—行 业点评报告》-2026.1.21 《台积电和谷歌表现亮眼，重视硅光 链和谷歌链—行业周报》-2026.1.18 《光、液冷、国内 AIDC 迎新变化— 行业周报》-2026.1.11 重视边际变化：卫星和国产 AI 链 蒋颖（分析师） 陈光毅（联系人） 雷星宇（联系人） jiangying@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523120003 chenguangyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124020006 leixingyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124040002 海内外太空建设加速，重视商业航天和卫星链 2026 年 1 月 22 日，蓝箭航天空间科技股份有限公司（简称"蓝箭航天"）科 创板 IPO 审核状态变更为"已问询" ，此次 IPO 公司拟募资 75 亿元，用于可 重复使用火箭产能提升项目、可重复使用 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) rose over 4.2% on January 5, indicating a recovery momentum in the technology sector [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the current market sentiment and liquidity environment in Hong Kong are favorable, increasing the probability of successful investments in Hong Kong stocks [1] - The technology sector is expected to have room for growth under the conditions of liquidity easing and capital recovery, with a focus on fundamentals, industry prosperity, and profitability in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology Index has outperformed the Hang Seng Technology Index, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, innovative pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, with a cumulative return of 256.46% from the end of 2014 to October 2025, compared to 96.94% for the Hang Seng Technology Index [2] - The Hong Kong Technology ETF tracks the Hong Kong Technology Index (931573), which includes core assets in the technology sector such as internet, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher, with the Hang Seng Index at 26,361.44 points, up 22.97 points, a gain of 0.09% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index reached 5,755.28 points, increasing by 18.84 points, a rise of 0.33% [3] Company Focus - Kuaishou Technology (HK01024) saw its stock price rise over 10% in early trading [4] - Kuaishou has conducted a share buyback from December 15 to 30, 2025, repurchasing a total of 9.9627 million shares for a total amount of HKD 643 million, despite a cumulative drop of 4.37% during this period [6] Sector Performance - Technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba up over 2% and Bilibili up over 3% [6] - Oil and gas equipment stocks opened higher, with Shandong Molong rising over 13% [6] - Gold stocks were active, with Zijin Mining International up over 1% [6] - Power equipment stocks opened lower, with Goldwind Technology down over 6% [6] - Chinese brokerage stocks generally fell, with China Merchants Securities down over 1% [6] - China Aluminum Corporation rose over 6%, while new consumption stocks rebounded, with Pop Mart up over 2% and Chow Tai Fook up over 5% [6] - Newly listed company Woan Robotics (HK06600) continued to attract investment, rising over 20% in early trading and up over 50% from its issue price [6] Market Outlook - Huatai Securities believes that the current market sentiment and liquidity environment are better than in November, increasing the likelihood of successful investments in Hong Kong stocks [8] - Recommendations include continuing to invest in technology chains with performance expectations, as well as balancing cash flow assets [8] - The report highlights three key areas for investment: upstream resources in the power chain, travel-related sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies, and domestic AI leaders in the technology sector [8] - GF Securities' Liu Chenming team is optimistic about the Hong Kong market's rebound, noting a shift from traditional economic cycles to hard technology sectors like AI applications and new energy [9] - The team indicates that previous liquidity and sentiment issues that suppressed the Hong Kong market may have adjusted, suggesting potential for rebounds in the Hang Seng Tech Index [9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher on January 5, with the Hang Seng Index at 26,361.44 points, up 22.97 points, a gain of 0.09% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index reached 5,755.28 points, increasing by 18.84 points, or 0.33% [4] Company Focus - Kuaishou-W (HK01024) saw a significant early morning rise, exceeding 10% [6] - From December 15 to 30, 2025, Kuaishou repurchased a total of 9.9627 million shares for a total amount of 643 million HKD, despite a cumulative drop of 4.37% during that period [7] - In the tech sector, Alibaba rose over 2%, and Bilibili increased by more than 3% [7] - New stock Wan'an Robotics (HK06600), listed on December 30, 2022, continued to attract investment, rising over 20% in early trading and more than 50% from its issue price [7] Sector Performance - Oil and gas equipment and services stocks opened higher, with Shandong Molong rising over 13% [7] - Gold stocks were active, with Zijin Mining International increasing by over 1% [7] - Power equipment stocks opened lower, with Goldwind Technology dropping over 6% [7] - Chinese brokerage stocks generally fell, with China Merchants Securities down over 1% [7] - China Aluminum rose over 6%, and new consumption stocks rebounded, with Pop Mart up over 2% and Chow Tai Fook up over 5% [7] Market Outlook - Huatai Securities believes that the current market sentiment and liquidity environment are better than in November, increasing the likelihood of successful investments in Hong Kong stocks [9] - The firm suggests continuing to allocate to technology chains with performance expectations, as liquidity may catalyze significant growth in the next quarter [9] - The report highlights that in 2026, stock selection will focus more on fundamentals, industry conditions, and profitability, particularly in the power chain and travel sectors [9] - GF Securities' Liu Chenming team is optimistic about the Hong Kong market's rebound, noting a shift from traditional economic cycles to hard technology sectors like AI applications and new energy [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is experiencing heightened activity, particularly in the commercial aerospace and semiconductor sectors, with significant capital inflows [1][2] - As of the market close, the electronic and defense industries saw net inflows of 223.63 billion and 159.59 billion yuan, respectively, leading the industry rankings [1][3] - The overall market indices showed a collective increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3940 points after six consecutive days of gains [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The General Aviation ETF (159231) and Military Industry ETF (512810) both rose over 2.6%, reflecting strong investor interest [1] - The Chemical ETF (516020) saw a nearly 2% increase, driven by rising prices of MDI and lithium carbonate, indicating a robust performance in the chemical sector [2][11] - The Military Industry ETF experienced a significant surge, with main funds net buying nearly 160 billion yuan, marking it as a leading sector in the market [5][9] Group 3: Commercial Aerospace Insights - China's commercial aerospace sector is projected to undergo a transformation with scalable commercial value, aiming for 100 launches per year by 2030 at a cost of approximately 100 million yuan per launch, potentially reaching an annual output value of 85 billion yuan [1][7] - The commercial aerospace market in China is expected to grow from approximately 0.38 trillion yuan in 2015 to between 7 trillion and 10 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 22% [7] Group 4: Semiconductor Sector Developments - The semiconductor sector is highlighted by the anticipated delivery of H200 chips by Nvidia to Chinese customers before the Spring Festival, which is expected to stimulate demand [1][16] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a price increase cycle, driven by dual demand from smartphones and servers, with significant upgrades expected in storage capacities [17][20] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Military Industry ETF (512810) is noted for its exposure to 24 commercial aerospace concept stocks, making it an efficient tool for investors looking to capitalize on military and aerospace opportunities [7] - The Chemical ETF (516020) is recommended for its potential to benefit from a recovery in the chemical sector, with a focus on high-quality stocks in the industry [15][14] - The Electronic ETF (515260) is positioned to benefit from trends in AI and semiconductor demand, making it a strategic investment choice [20][19]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (Southern, 159269) has seen a recent increase of 0.38%, marking a potential three-day rally with a trading volume of 9.859 million yuan [1] - The underlying index, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, rose by 0.51%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as AAC Technologies (+5.95%), Kuaishou-W (+3.73%), and BYD Company (+3.22%) [1] - As of December 1, the latest scale of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF reached 1.884 billion yuan, a new high for the past month, with the latest share count at 1.772 billion, marking a record since inception [1] Group 2 - Keling AI launched its new product "Keling O1," which is positioned as the first unified multimodal creation tool, integrating various input types into a comprehensive engine [2] - Kuaishou Technology's CFO indicated that the company will increase investments in AI-related capabilities, expecting a mid-to-high double-digit year-on-year growth in overall capital expenditures for 2025 [2] - Alibaba's 1688 platform introduced the cross-border e-commerce AI assistant "Ao Xia," which combines AI and supply chain technology to provide a one-stop intelligent digital supply chain solution [2] Group 3 - CICC forecasts alternating trends for domestic and overseas computing power chains in 2025, influenced by factors such as the release of DeepSeek R1 and expectations for AI in North America [3] - Investment opportunities are highlighted, focusing on domestic AI chain innovation, sustained demand for AI hardware in overseas markets, and growth in the domestic AI industry, particularly in automotive electronics [3] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index includes 50 large-cap, high R&D investment, and high revenue growth technology companies, with top constituents including Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and BYD Company [3] Group 4 - The Southern Hang Seng Technology Index (QDII) aims to provide exposure to Hong Kong-listed companies highly related to technology themes, including sectors like fintech and e-commerce [4] - The index selects the top 30 companies based on criteria such as the use of technology platforms, R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue, and revenue growth [4]

Group 1 - The technology sector is experiencing a pullback, but it is expected to remain a main focus until the end of the year due to its strong correlation with indices and risk appetite, particularly in AI [1] - There is a potential return of active funds that had previously exited the market, as well as institutional demands for net asset value and rankings before the assessment period at the end of November and December [1] - Market capitalization style may slightly favor small and mid-cap stocks, as many absolute return institutions are expected to operate conservatively in the next two months, limiting the market's ability to exceed a trading volume of 3 trillion [1] Group 2 - The domestic AI supply chain, AI applications, and Hong Kong internet stocks are viewed positively, especially during the performance gap in November and December, where focus will shift to economic policy expectations for December and next year's industry outlook [2] - The domestic AI supply chain is expected to have more visibility and potential for earnings upgrades compared to overseas chains, attracting institutions that previously missed out on overseas computing power [2] - In the Hong Kong tech sector, low valuations and the need for institutions to lock in profits will drive interest, especially as the market anticipates upward index movements and faces selling pressure from broad-based ETFs [2] Group 3 - As of October 22, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with notable gains from China National Pharmaceutical (4.27%) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (0.88%) [3] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index consists of 50 large-cap, high R&D investment, and high revenue growth technology companies, reflecting the overall performance of tech leaders within the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index account for 66.5% of the index, including major players like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi [3]