新春佳节将至，年货市场持续升温，年货采购进入高峰期。2月4日，《2026抖音电商年货消费趋势数据报告》显 示，消费者在"吃、穿、用、玩"等方面的选择更加多元。一方面，年夜饭"轻开火"走红，相关菜肴受到欢迎，反 映出现代生活方式的变化；另一方面，非遗相关产品、地方特产、国潮商品和年俗好物同样活跃在年货清单中， 延续着春节的文化氛围。同时，宠物用品和智能家居等品类消费持续增长，多样化的选择让年味以更贴近日常生 活的方式呈现。 非遗春节热，老字号、国货消费走高 2026年将迎来第二个"非遗版"春节，赏非遗、品年俗的热度持续上升。过去一年，非遗与老字号商品订单量持续 上升，3亿用户曾在抖音电商购买过非遗相关产品；非遗相关店播动销商家数同比增长43%；老字号品牌成交额同 比增长70%。传统工艺品、经典食品和手工制品，在节日消费中受到关注。 服饰方面，新中式成为不少消费者的选择。1月16日至29日，新中式服装订单量同比增长66%，动销商家数量同比 增长345%。新中式双面穿外套、国风马甲、国风印花直筒裤等带有传统元素的服装，成为节日期间的热门商品。 从全年数据看，国货品牌整体表现稳定。2025年，国货品牌动销商家数同比增 ...

Core Insights - 2024 is expected to be a challenging year for L'Oréal, particularly in the Chinese market, which has become a significant concern for the company [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - L'Oréal achieved a record sales figure of €43.48 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [2] - The operating profit reached €8.688 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, resulting in an operating margin of 20% [2] - The North Asia market, which includes China, reported a sales decline of €10.3 billion, down 3.2% year-on-year, making it the only region with negative growth among L'Oréal's five major markets [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The growth rate of L'Oréal in the Chinese market has been declining, with previous growth rates exceeding 20% from 2019 to 2021, but dropping to low single-digit growth from 2022 onwards [2] - The first quarter of 2024 showed decent performance, but the second quarter experienced negative growth, which continued into the third and fourth quarters [2] - Factors contributing to the negative growth in the North Asia market include weak selective channels and pressure on travel retail sales [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - L'Oréal's revenue in China is primarily driven by mass-market and premium cosmetics, with brands like L'Oréal Paris and Lancôme being significant contributors [3] - The mass-market segment faces intense competition from local skincare brands that are gaining popularity due to the "national trend" and high cost-performance ratios [3] - In the premium segment, consumers are becoming more discerning, often opting for "alternative" products instead of high-end offerings, which diminishes L'Oréal's previous pricing advantages [3][4] Group 4: Adaptability Challenges - Local brands are quicker to respond to market changes and consumer demands due to their advantages in channels and supply chains, putting L'Oréal at a disadvantage [4] - The beauty market's dynamics have shifted, requiring brands to adopt more agile and flexible strategies to keep pace with rapid changes [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - In the first three quarters of 2025, the North Asia market reported sales of €7.35 billion, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.5%, indicating a low growth state [5] - The Chinese market remains a crucial revenue source for L'Oréal, necessitating a focus on market trends and consumer demand changes to potentially restore high growth in the future [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable performance in retail sales for Q3 2025, with both Anta and FILA brands achieving low single-digit positive growth, while other brands saw a significant increase in retail sales by 40-50% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - Anta brand retail sales (calculated at retail value) achieved low single-digit positive growth year-on-year [1] - FILA brand retail sales also achieved low single-digit positive growth year-on-year [1] - All other brands (excluding those added after January 1, 2024) experienced retail sales growth of 40-50% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company is expected to perform well in the sports and outdoor apparel sector in 2025, with an expanding brand matrix likely to increase market share [1] - The company is anticipated to benefit from the ongoing boom in sports and outdoor activities, as well as new opportunities for domestic brands, indicating strong resilience in both short and long-term dimensions [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company maintains its original profit forecasts, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders to be 13.41 billion, 15.05 billion, and 17.28 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year changes of -14.0%, +12.2%, and +14.9% respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 16.8 times for 2025, and the company maintains a "strong buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with a 10% year-on-year increase in retail sales for both the main brand and children's clothing in offline channels, and a 20% increase in overall e-commerce platform revenue [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The offline retail sales for the main brand and children's clothing both increased by 10% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [1] - The overall revenue from the e-commerce platform grew by 20% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Operational Strategies - The company is focusing on enhancing operational performance through product iteration, brand building, and channel development [1] - Product upgrades have been made across running, basketball, outdoor, women's fitness, and children's categories [1] - The company is actively promoting its brand as the official partner of the 20th Asian Games, providing professional gear for torchbearers, runners, and over 32,000 volunteers, thereby expanding its global brand influence [1] - The company is implementing an online and offline collaborative strategy, partnering with Meituan for new sports consumption experiences [1] Group 3: Store Expansion - As of September 30, 2025, the company has reached 93 super brand stores nationwide [1] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 11.34 billion, 12.66 billion, and 14.08 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% [2] - The projected net profit for the same years is 1.29 billion, 1.47 billion, and 1.66 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.5%, 13.4%, and 13.0% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for 361 Degrees (1361.HK) [3][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong operational performance in Q3 2025, with a 10% year-on-year increase in retail sales for both the main brand and children's clothing, and a 20% increase in overall e-commerce platform revenue [3][6]. - The company is actively enhancing its operational performance through product upgrades, brand building, and channel development, including collaborations with Meituan for online sales [6]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth in both adult and children's apparel segments, alongside the sports and outdoor activity market, indicating strong resilience in both short and long-term growth [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 113.4 billion, 126.6 billion, and 140.8 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 12.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% respectively [6][9]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 12.9 billion, 14.7 billion, and 16.6 billion CNY, with growth rates of 12.5%, 13.4%, and 13.0% [6][9]. - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 41% and a net margin of around 11.4% [9]. Key Financial Ratios - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 8.7, 7.7, and 6.8, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [9]. - The projected ROE for 2025-2027 is around 14.7% to 14.6%, suggesting stable profitability [9]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to be around 28.4% in 2025, indicating a healthy balance sheet [9]. Operational Highlights - As of September 30, 2025, the company has expanded its national store count to 93, reflecting ongoing channel development [6]. - The company is the official partner of the 20th Asian Games, enhancing its brand visibility and market presence [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that in H1 2025, the cosmetics retail sales growth has reversed its decline, achieving a growth rate of 2.9% due to consumption-boosting policies and improved income expectations [1][2] - The demand for cosmetics is expected to remain strong in H2 2025, with the off-peak season in July and August showing increased growth, indicating positive demand expectations [1][2] - The competitive landscape is improving, with domestic brands making significant progress, and leading domestic brands are now sharing market share equally with international brands [2] Group 2 - In the cosmetics sector, the revenue growth rate for key covered companies in H1 2025 is around 8%, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth [2] - Specific companies in the cosmetics sector include: - Shiseido: H1 2025 revenue of 4.11 billion yuan, up 17.3%, net profit of 520 million yuan, up 30.6% [2] - Proya: H1 2025 revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, up 7.2%, net profit of 800 million yuan, up 13.8% [2] - Water Sheep: H1 2025 revenue of 2.5 billion yuan, up 9.0%, net profit of 123 million yuan, up 16.5% [2] - Marubi: H1 2025 revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, up 30.8%, net profit of 190 million yuan, up 5.2% [2] Group 3 - The second category of companies is capitalizing on consumer trends, with notable performances including: - Mao Geping: H1 2025 revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, up 31.3%, net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [3] - Juzi Biotechnology: H1 2025 revenue of 3.11 billion yuan, up 22.5%, net profit of 1.18 billion yuan, up 20.2% [3] - The third category includes companies showing marginal improvements or initial signs of strategic transformation, such as Shanghai Jahwa, Huaxi Biological, and Betaini [3] Group 4 - In the personal care sector, two companies reported revenue and net profit growth, indicating a strong market potential: - RuYuchen: H1 2025 revenue of 1.32 billion yuan, up 67.6%, net profit of 70 million yuan, up 85.6% [3] - Runben: H1 2025 revenue of 900 million yuan, up 20.3%, net profit of 190 million yuan, up 4.2% [3] Group 5 - In the medical beauty sector, the performance is mixed, with some companies experiencing declines: - Aimeike: H1 2025 revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, down 21.6%, net profit of 790 million yuan, down 29.6% [4] - Langzi: H1 2025 revenue of 2.79 billion yuan, down 4.3%, net profit of 270 million yuan, up 64.1% [4] - Overall, the medical beauty sector reported a revenue of 1.333 billion yuan, down 6.1%, with a gross margin of 54.54% [4]

Group 1: Core Business Insights - The company's large-scale business achieved revenue of 7.38 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [1] - The product structure remains stable over the past five years, with footwear accounting for an average of 58.1% and apparel for 41.9% of the large-scale business [1] - The company is focusing on both offline and online channel development, targeting lower-tier markets for offline growth while exploring e-commerce potential online [1] Group 2: Children's Wear Business Strategy - The children's wear segment is expanding its store count while enhancing store quality through image upgrades [2] - The company is leveraging technology to enhance product functionality, introducing advanced technologies in footwear such as soft bounce columns and shock-absorbing materials [2] - The children's brand is creating popular products by incorporating IP elements and addressing niche market demands with items like yoga pants and competition suits [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from two growth curves in large-scale and children's wear businesses, alongside the sports and outdoor market boom [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 11.34 billion yuan, 12.66 billion yuan, and 14.08 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% respectively [3] - The target price for the company is set at 7.20 HKD, indicating a potential increase of 13.2% from the closing price on August 29, 2025, with a "recommended" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for 361 Degrees, with a target price of HKD 7.20, indicating a potential upside of 13.2% from the closing price on August 29, 2025 [6][68]. Core Views - 361 Degrees is positioned to benefit from both its adult and children's apparel segments, capitalizing on the growth in sports and outdoor activities, as well as the opportunities presented by domestic brands [6][68]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 113.4 billion, RMB 126.6 billion, and RMB 140.8 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% respectively [6][68]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - 361 Degrees was established in 2003 and focuses on the research, design, production, and brand management of sports footwear and apparel. It has a strong presence in the domestic market with a total of 5,750 adult apparel stores and 2,548 children's apparel stores in China as of 2024 [10][11]. Adult Apparel Business - The adult apparel segment achieved revenue of RMB 73.8 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1%. The product mix remains balanced, with footwear accounting for 58.1% and apparel for 41.9% of the segment [6][22]. - The company is enhancing its supply chain efficiency and embracing smart manufacturing, which includes a focus on advanced supply chain systems and 5G smart factories [6][50]. Children's Apparel Business - The children's apparel segment is experiencing rapid expansion, with the number of stores increasing from 1,797 in 2017 to 2,548 in 2024, representing a CAGR of 5.1%. The average store size has also increased, enhancing the shopping experience [54][56]. - The company is leveraging technology to enhance product offerings, introducing innovative footwear and apparel designed for children, which includes collaborations with popular IPs to create appealing designs [62][63]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts that the overall revenue for 361 Degrees will grow significantly, with net profits expected to reach RMB 12.9 billion, RMB 14.7 billion, and RMB 16.6 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 12.5%, 13.4%, and 13.0% respectively [6][68]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable, with expectations of 41.1%, 41.3%, and 41.5% for the years 2025-2027 [6][68]. Valuation and Comparison - The report employs a relative valuation method, comparing 361 Degrees with other domestic sports brands like Anta, Li Ning, and Xtep. The target P/E ratio for 361 Degrees is set at 10.5 times for 2025 [67][69].

Core Insights - The period from May to June is a peak time for emotional and consumer spending, driven by various holidays and the 618 e-commerce promotion, which serves as a significant opportunity for consumer spending release [1][10] Consumer Behavior Trends - In May, nearly 40% of consumers focused on gift-giving, with Mother's Day (69.0%), Children's Day (47.0%), and 520 (45.0%) being the top occasions for gifts [3][5] - In June, consumers are more inclined to stock up on goods, with 66.1% planning to spend twice their gift budget during the 618 promotion [1][13] - A significant shift in consumer sentiment is noted, with 93.1% preferring to buy in-stock items rather than pre-sale products, indicating a desire for immediacy in purchases [1][14] E-commerce Dynamics - JD.com emerges as the preferred shopping platform for 92.2% of consumers during the 618 promotion, attributed to its advantages in price, quality, logistics, and service experience [19][21] - Over 40% of consumers are willing to pay a fair price for quality products, with JD.com being recognized for its balanced pricing, product offerings, and services [2][19] Promotional Strategies - Consumers express a preference for shorter promotional periods, with over 80% wanting the 618 promotion to last no longer than two weeks, reflecting a shift towards planned shopping rather than impulsive buying [10][11] - The majority of consumers (58.5%) perceive that the 618 promotion began earlier than usual, yet they remain focused on June for the best deals [10][13] Product Preferences - There is a growing interest in domestic brands and AI technology products, with 38.2% of consumers focusing on domestic goods and 34.8% planning to purchase AI-related products during the 618 promotion [16][17] - The trend towards experiential gifts is evident, with consumers opting for practical gifts that also provide emotional value, such as health-related products for Father's Day [5][6] Consumer Expectations - Consumers are increasingly seeking transparency and simplicity in promotional offers, with 46.7% favoring straightforward pricing models over complex discount schemes [15][19] - The emphasis on quality and value is reshaping consumer expectations, with 40.3% prioritizing high-quality products and being willing to pay a fair price for them [15][19]