1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On March 18, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities dropped, with New Energy Metals leading the decline. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.4%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Methanol, Ethylene Glycol, and Fiberboard, while the top three decliners were Poly - Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, and Chinese Jujube [10][12][13]. - Gold remains in high - level consolidation with solid medium - term support. It may trade in a high range in the short term and its medium - term performance depends on energy shocks and growth prospects [16][18][19]. - Silver's upward momentum has slowed, and volatility may remain elevated. It is expected to maintain high - level consolidation in the near term, and if precious metals allocation demand spreads, it has room for catch - up gains [22][24][25]. - Tin supply risks remain elevated, and tin prices still have bottom support, but are expected to trade range - bound in the medium to short term due to weak macro sentiment and supply improvement expectations [28][30][31]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures - Overview - On March 18, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities dropped. New Energy Metals led the drop. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.4%. In commodity futures, Methanol rose 3.3% with open - interest increasing 7.9% month - on - month, Ethylene Glycol gained 1.1% with open - interest increasing 0.1% month - on - month, and Fiberboard advanced 1.1% with open - interest decreasing 58.6% month - on - month. The top three decliners were Poly - Silicon (down 5.1% with open - interest increasing 1.4% month - on - month), Lithium Carbonate (down 4.4% with open - interest decreasing 0.5% month - on - month), and Chinese Jujube (down 2.8% with open - interest decreasing 9.7% month - on - month) [10][11][13]. 3.2 China Futures - Daily Drop 3.2.1 Gold - On March 18, the Gold main contract dropped 0.2% to 1113.52 yuan/g (SHFE). Middle - East tensions, energy infrastructure attacks, and Strait of Hormuz disruptions provide safe - haven and inflation - hedge premiums. High oil prices heighten inflation risks and dampen Fed rate - cut expectations, weighing on gold in the short term. However, gold's medium - term allocation value is prominent, and Asian demand offers downside support. In the short term, it may trade in a high range, and its medium - term performance depends on energy shocks and growth prospects [16][17][19]. 3.2.2 Silver - On March 18, the Silver main contract dropped 2.4% to 19980 yuan/kg (SHFE). It is supported by geopolitical safe - haven demand and inflation expectations but has weaker financial attributes than gold. Short - term performance is more sensitive to risk sentiment and interest rate expectations. Current high - interest - rate expectations constrain its valuation. If stagflation pricing deepens, its volatility may remain higher than gold. In the near term, it is expected to maintain high - level consolidation, and if precious metals allocation demand spreads, it has room for catch - up gains [22][23][25]. 3.2.3 Tin - On March 18, the Tin main contract dropped 2.6% to 370000 yuan/ton (SHFE). Supply risks remain high, and tin prices have bottom support, but there are no short - term drivers due to macro headwinds. Supply is expected to improve as Wa State restarts mines and Indonesia raises its production target, while the DRC situation keeps supply risks high. Demand from the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle sectors is strong. Overall, tin prices are expected to trade range - bound in the medium to short term [28][29][31]. 3.3 China News - Macro News - Trump has confirmed the postponement of his visit to China, and China and the US will maintain communications on this matter [34]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has rolled out a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign investment projects with a planned total investment of $13.4 billion, including logistics projects for the first time [34]. - The Iranian President has confirmed the death of Ali Larijani [34]. - Trump has said that the US should consider withdrawing from NATO [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 5, 2026, equity index futures rose, and most commodities showed high performances, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. Geopolitical tensions have a significant impact on the prices of crude oil and related chemical products, and the future price trends of these products are expected to be volatile due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation [11][13]. - The Chinese government has set the economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5% - 5%, and plans to issue RMB 1.3 trillion worth of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, with a deficit ratio of around 4%. These policies are expected to have an impact on the macro - economic and financial markets [39][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 5, equity index futures rose (IF rose 0.9% and IM rose 0.8%), and most commodities performed well, with energy & chemicals leading the increase. In CGB futures, TL dropped 0.05% and TF dropped 0.03%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Sodium Hydroxide (up 7.0% with open interest decreasing 5.8% month - on - month), Crude Oil (up 6.4% with open interest decreasing 10.9% month - on - month), and Benzene (up 6.2% with open interest increasing 8.8% month - on - month). The top three decliners were LPG (down 3.6% with open interest decreasing 3.8% month - on - month), Methanol (down 3.5% with open interest decreasing 12.5% month - on - month), and SCFIS(Europe) (down 3.4% with open interest decreasing 5.0% month - on - month) [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On March 5, the crude oil main contract hit the upward limit at one point but pulled back in the late trading session, closing up 6.4% at 664.1 yuan/barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories continued seasonal build - up at a slower pace. Geopolitical tensions led to reduced supply, and the future price is expected to fluctuate [17][18][20]. - **Benzene**: On March 5, the main contract of Benzene rose 6.2% to 7251 yuan/ton. Crude oil price fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions are the key driver of benzene prices. Supply is affected by crude oil swings, and refineries may cut operating rates. Demand is affected by styrene maintenance and restart news. Although inventory pressure remains, Q1 fundamentals have improved month - on - month from Q4 [24][25][27]. - **Ethenylbenzene**: On March 5, the main contract of Ethenylbenzene rose 6.0% to 8656 yuan/ton. Geopolitical tensions boosted crude oil, which in turn lifted ethenylbenzene prices. Supply is expected to drop due to plant maintenance, and demand is recovering after the Spring Festival. It is expected to destock in March [31][32][34]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro - The Government Work Report stated that the main expected development goals for 2026 are economic growth of 4.5% - 5%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate kept at around 5.5% and over 12 million new urban jobs created, the consumer price index rising by about 2%, a basic balance of international payments, grain output reaching approximately 1.4 trillion jin, and a reduction of around 3.8% in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP. The deficit ratio is projected at around 4% for the year, with a deficit scale of RMB 5.89 trillion, an increase of RMB 230 billion over the previous year. RMB 1.3 trillion worth of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be issued [39][40]. 3.2.2 Trading - On March 5, 2026, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) adjusted the price limits and trading margin ratios for crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil futures contracts [40][44][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 4, equity index futures showed low performances, while commodities were mixed, with Precious Metals leading the drop [11][13]. - The strengthening US Dollar Index weighed on platinum prices, and the US - Iran tensions have continued to roil the precious metals market [33][34]. - Poly - Silicon prices have broken below the cost support level, and in the short - term, prices are under pressure, but may gradually recover in the medium - term [27][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 4, in equity index futures, IH dropped 1.3% and IF dropped 1.2%; in CGB futures, TF rose 0.08% and TL dropped 0.01%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), Crude Oil and Fuel Oil, while the top three decliners were Tin, Platinum and Poly - Silicon [11][13]. 1.2 Daily Drop 1.2.1 Silver - On March 4, the main contract of Silver dropped 4.4% to 21,854 yuan/g. Silver's high beta characteristic has amplified price volatility. Geopolitical risks, energy price trends, and air transportation disruptions have affected silver prices. If risk premiums persist and energy prices remain high, silver will retain resilience; if the US dollar and yields strengthen, silver prices may correct more than gold [18][20][21]. 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - Poly - Silicon prices have been sliding since the New Year. On March 4, the main poly - silicon futures contract dropped 4.5% to 42,200 yuan/ton. Market expectations of "anti - cutthroat competition" have wavered, and demand has been weak. Supply has decreased in February, and is expected to remain low in March. In the short - term, prices are under pressure, but may gradually recover in the medium - term [24][25][27]. 1.2.3 Platinum - On March 4, the main contract of Platinum dropped 4.5% to 563.5 yuan/g. The strengthening US Dollar Index weighed on platinum prices. The US - Iran tensions have roiled the precious metals market. In the medium - to long - term, platinum prices are expected to trend upward with fluctuations [33][34][37]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress will open on the morning of March 5 and last for 8 days. In February, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage point; the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points [40][41]. 2.2 Industry News - Multiple exchanges adjusted price limits and trading margin ratios for various futures contracts on March 4, including INE (crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, SCFIS(Europe)), SHFE (fuel oil), DCE (LPG, ethenylbenzene, ethylene glycol), and ZCE (methanol) [46][48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 3, 2026, equity index futures rose, CGB futures were mixed, and most commodities declined with non - ferrous metals leading the rises [10][12][13] - Short - term copper prices are volatile due to macro disturbances but have a favorable medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook [16][21][22] - Tin prices have strong downside support in the medium - to - long - term but face short - term volatility risks [26][28][30] - Crude oil prices dropped, and the market is in supply - surplus, with the future trend depending on the U.S. - Iran negotiation progress [33][34][36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IC rose 3.8% and IM rose 2.9% [10][12] - CGB futures: TF rose 0.08% and TL dropped 0.10% [10] - Commodity futures: Top gainers were Palladium (8.6% rise, 4.3% month - on - month open - interest decrease), Poly - Silicon (6.6% rise, 4.6% month - on - month open - interest decrease), and SCFIS(Europe) (5.2% rise, 1.3% month - on - month open - interest increase); top decliners were Silver (16.7% decline, 10.4% month - on - month open - interest decrease), Tin (6.7% decline, 7.5% month - on - month open - interest decrease), and Crude Oil (4.9% decline, 12.6% month - on - month open - interest decrease) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Copper - On February 3, the front - month contract of copper rose 2.6% to 104,500 yuan/ton (SHFE) [16][21][23] - Macro: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair led to a stronger dollar and copper price correction [17][21] - Supply - demand: Supply disruptions increased, long - term processing fees were at a low, squeezing smelters' profits; demand is currently weak but expected to be tight in the long run [18][19][20] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Tin - On February 3, the front - month contract of tin dropped 6.7% to 383,340 yuan/ton (SHFE) [26][29][31] - Supply: Issues in Wa State, Indonesia, and DRC affect supply; mineral - end supply tightens and smelter capital pressure increases [27][29][30] - Demand: Semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors drive demand growth [27][30] - Risk: Short - term price volatility due to a strong dollar, stable supply, and weakened long - side momentum [28][30] 3.1.3.2 Crude Oil - On February 3, the front - month contract of crude oil dropped 4.9% to 449.4 yuan/barrel (INE) [33][36][38] - Geopolitical: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, reducing the geopolitical premium [33][36] - Fundamentals: Global inventories rose, Kazakhstan's supply recovered, and refined - oil inventories faced pressure [34][36] - Outlook: Supply is in surplus; future prices depend on U.S. - Iran negotiation progress [35][36] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Shanghai launched the acquisition of second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui Districts to meet talents' "job - housing balance" needs [41] 3.2.2 Industry News - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the Ag(T + D) contract's margin from 26% to 23% and the price fluctuation limit from 25% to 22% starting February 3, 2026 [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 23, equity index futures were mixed, CGB futures rose slightly, and most commodities rose with precious metals leading the gains [2][4][11]. - Platinum, silver, and lithium carbonate were the top three gainers in commodity futures, while crude oil, egg, and LSFO were the top three decliners [12][13][14]. - Pan Gongsheng stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 [3][38][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - On January 23, in equity index futures, IC rose 3.4% and IH dropped 0.7%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.07% and TF rose 0.04% [11][13]. - In commodity futures, platinum rose 10.4% with open interest decreasing 4.8% month - on - month; silver gained 8.5% with open interest increasing 2.8% month - on - month; lithium carbonate advanced 7.3% with open interest increasing 0.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - The top three decliners in commodity futures were crude oil (down 1.0% with open interest increasing 4.7% month - on - month), egg (down 0.6% with open interest decreasing 1.4% month - on - month), and LSFO (down 0.3% with open interest increasing 8.0% month - on - month) [13][14]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise (上涨品种) - **Platinum (铂)**: On January 23, it rose 10.4% to 685.90 yuan/g. With a sound supply - demand backdrop and improving macro expectations, it is expected to trend oscillatory and strong. South African floods may disrupt supply, and geopolitical tensions have eased. Future supply risks remain, and demand is in a structural expansion phase [18][20][21]. - **Silver (白银)**: On January 23, it rose 8.5% to 24,965 yuan/kg. Silver prices have strong long - term bullish support. Trump's softened stance on Greenland weakens safe - haven demand, but industrial demand is expected to grow, and the market has a structural deficit. Short - term prices may be oscillatory and strong at high levels [25][26][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂)**: On January 23, it rose 7.3% to 181,520 yuan/ton. Short - term supply and demand are in tight balance, and prices are expected to trade strong with fluctuations. January supply is expected to be robust, demand is solid, and inventories are decreasing [31][32][34]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观要闻) - On January 23, President Xi Jinping held a phone call with Brazilian President Lula, stating that China will boost high - quality development through high - standard opening - up and promote China - Brazil cooperation [37][39]. - On January 22, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in 2026 and will keep social financing costs low [38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 25th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures declined; most commodities advanced, with Poly-Silicon, Platinum, and Silver leading the gains, and Palladium, Nickel, and Tin leading the decliners [2][10][12]. - TikTok will establish a joint venture in the United States, and the Chinese government hopes enterprises reach a solution compliant with Chinese laws and regulations and balanced in interests [1][37]. - China firmly opposes the US imposition of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has lodged strong representations [38]. - China actively promotes and facilitates compliant trade regarding possible relaxation of restrictions on rare earth magnet exports to the US [39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On December 25th, equity index futures rose (IC rose by 1.0%, IM rose by 1.2%), CGB futures declined (TL dropped by 0.2%), most commodities advanced. The top three gainers in commodity futures were Poly-Silicon (up 4.8% with a 4.0% month-on-month increase in open interest), Platinum (up 4.5% with a 3.9% month-on-month rise in open interest), and Silver (up 2.6% with a 12.8% month-on-month decrease in open interest). The top three decliners were Palladium (down 7.7% with a 10.5% month-on-month decrease in open interest), Nickel (down 1.2% with a 5.1% month-on-month decline in open interest), and Tin (down 1.2% with a 5.0% month-on-month reduction in open interest) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Platinum**: On December 25, it rose 4.5% to 686.95 yuan per gram. In the medium to long term, the Federal Reserve's independence and liquidity easing provide upside momentum, supply disruption risks exist, and demand will expand steadily. A long-term bullish view is maintained. In the short term, it has entered a correction phase, with expected trading ranges of 1,800 - 2,400 USD per ounce for NYMEX platinum and 510 - 700 CNY per gram for GFEX platinum. Bull positions are recommended to gradually reduce holdings. Opportunities to go long on platinum and short on palladium are suggested when the platinum-palladium spread is low, and inter-market arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets should be monitored [17][18][19]. - **Silver**: On December 25, it rose 2.6% to 17,397 yuan per kilogram. It is in an accelerated rally, with a monthly gain of over 40% since late November and a 2025 gain nearing 150%. Short-term two-way volatility risks exist, and position risk management is needed. In 2026, the gold-silver bull market will continue, and silver's upside potential will be fully unlocked, with London spot silver targeting 50 - 100 USD/oz [26][27][28]. 3.1.3 Daily Dropped - **Palladium**: On December 25th, it fell 7.7% to 529.05 yuan per gram. In 2026, global palladium mine production and refined production are projected to rise by 0.3% and 2.1% respectively, while demand is expected to drop by 1.7%. A 16.9-tonne surplus in supply relative to demand is anticipated. It is in a long-term oversupply situation but has some downside support in the short term. NYMEX palladium is expected to fluctuate within 1,650 - 2,000 USD per ounce, and GFEX palladium between 460 - 600 CNY per gram. Previously, bull positions were advised to reduce holdings [31][32][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The Chinese government hopes enterprises reach a solution compliant with Chinese laws and regulations and balanced in interests regarding TikTok's plan to establish a joint venture in the US [37]. - China firmly opposes the US imposition of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has lodged strong representations [38]. - China actively promotes and facilitates compliant trade regarding possible relaxation of restrictions on rare earth magnet exports to the US [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On December 9, stock index futures declined while treasury bond futures rose; most commodities fell, with energy and chemical commodities leading the declines [2][10][12] - Poly-silicon prices are set to fluctuate broadly due to marginal weakening in demand, contracting supply during the dry season, and lingering policy expectations [17] - The recent sharp drop in coking coal and coke futures is a result of concentrated pessimism and capital games. Market sentiment reversal will take time, but downstream winter stocking in mid-to-late December is expected to gradually improve fundamentals and sentiment [26][28] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On December 9, stock index futures declined while treasury bond futures rose; most commodities fell, with energy and chemical commodities leading the declines. Financial futures: IH fell by 0.9%, IC fell by 0.8%, TL rose by 0.4%. Commodity futures: The top three gainers were polysilicon, live hogs, and fiberboard; the top three decliners were industrial silicon, coke, and fuel oil [10][11][12] 1.2 Daily Raise - **Poly-Silicon**: On December 9, it rose by 3.5% to 55,610 yuan/ton. Guanghe Qiancheng was reported to be officially established with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, but industry insiders did not confirm its role. The GFEX added two new registered brands, which may increase registered warehouse receipts and cause a short - term pullback in nearby futures contract prices. Supply decreased in the dry season, and demand was weakened after over - drawing in the first half of the year. Prices are expected to fluctuate [16][17][18] 1.3 Daily Drop - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On December 9, coking coal fell by 2.2% to 1,082.5 yuan/ton, and coke dropped by 2.7% to 1,514 yuan/ton. The sharp drop was due to news - driven disturbances and capital behaviors dominated by market pessimism. Fundamentally, supply and demand changed little, but procurement weakened. Actual substantial supply growth will only be possible after 2027. Market sentiment may improve with downstream winter stocking [22][23][27] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On December 9, Premier Li Qiang held the "1 + 10" Dialogue with heads of major international economic organizations, expressing China's willingness to promote common development [33] 2.2 Industry News - On December 9, it was reported that the U.S. President Trump would approve the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said China advocates mutual benefit and win - win results through cooperation [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 4, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; most commodities fell, with energy and chemical products leading the decline [10][12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate later, rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate at a low level, and crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate with a weak bias [17][24][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Equity indices fell and CGB futures rose on September 4. Most commodities declined, with energy and chemical products leading the drop [10][12]. - Among China's commodity futures, the top three gainers were rapeseed, iron ore, and egg; the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, LSFO, and fuel oil [10][11][12]. - In financial futures, IC declined by 2.4% and TL increased by 0.3% [11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Iron Ore**: On September 4, it rose 1.7% to 791.5 yuan/ton. Demand is high, supply and inventory are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate later [15][17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On September 4, it rose 0.2% to 2519 yuan/ton. Protein meal may continue to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to international weather and domestic supply - demand changes [21][24]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Crude Oil**: On September 4, it decreased by 2.2% to 481 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are likely to fluctuate with a weak bias, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and geopolitical risks [28][30]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Leaders of China and the DPRK will hold talks to strengthen cooperation [35][36]. - The "Action Plan for Stabilizing Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry (2025 - 2026)" was issued, with specific development targets set [35][36]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of the end of July, the number of QFIIs reached 900, with 40 new ones added this year. The CSRC will introduce more reform measures to promote capital market opening [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, most equity indices and CGB futures declined, while commodities showed mixed performance, with poly-silicon leading the gainers and lithium carbonate leading the losers [2][9][10][11]. - The anti-involution policy has significantly boosted the price of poly-silicon, but there is still pressure on the actual supply and demand, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy [19][20]. - The price of silicon metal will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and if production resumption becomes concentrated, the price may come under pressure [23][26][27]. - A supply-demand gap in the domestic lithium carbonate market is gradually emerging, but the shortage is not significant, and it is necessary to be vigilant against extreme price movements caused by position liquidation [31][32][33]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 2, most equity indices and CGB futures declined. Among commodities, some rose while others fell, with poly-silicon leading the gainers and lithium carbonate leading the losers [9][10][11]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon (up 4.0% with open interest down 3.0% month-on-month), SCFIS(Europe) (up 3.6% with open interest up 3.6% month-on-month), and LSFO (up 2.5% with open interest up 11.8% month-on-month) [9][11]. - The top three decliners were lithium carbonate (down 4.3% with open interest up 2.6% month-on-month), ethylene glycol (down 2.2% with open interest up 6.5% month-on-month), and IM (down 1.8% with open interest up 6.9% month-on-month) [10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Poly-Silicon - On September 2, poly-silicon increased by 4.0% to 51875 yuan/ton. The anti-involution sentiment has heated up, leading to increased volatility in prices [15][20]. - On the macro front, six government departments held a joint symposium on the PV industry, and Reuters reported more information on the industry restructuring plan, boosting the anti-involution sentiment [16][20]. - On the supply side, the operating production capacity in Southwest China has improved with the arrival of the high-water season, and it is necessary to monitor the impact of the anti-involution policy on supply in the medium to long term [17][20]. - On the demand side, the growth rate of PV installed capacity from January to May increased significantly, but it has overdrawn the demand in the second half of the year, and there is a risk of weakening subsequent demand [18][20]. 1.2.2 Silicon Metal - On September 2, silicon metal increased by 1.1% to 8470 yuan/ton. The price will continue to fluctuate in the short term under the influence of macro sentiment and coal prices [23][26][27]. - On the supply side, the overall supply pressure is likely to continue rising, mainly from the northwest region, while the southwest region has limited new supply in the follow-up [24][26][27]. - On the demand side, there are signs of a certain improvement month-on-month, driven by the resumption of production by poly-silicon enterprises and a slight increase in the operating rate of organic silicon [25][27]. - In terms of inventory, recent changes have been small, but social inventory and futures warehouse receipts are expected to further accumulate as output recovers [26][27]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Lithium Carbonate - On September 2, lithium carbonate decreased by 4.3% to 72620 yuan/ton. The first wave of sentiment impact caused by the production suspension at the Jianxiawo Mine has ended, and the market has returned to the stage of gaming over mine production suspensions [29][32]. - Fundamentally, a supply-demand gap is gradually emerging, but the data is more lackluster than expected. The weekly output decreased slightly month-on-month, and the monthly output in August exceeded expectations, indicating accelerated supply release [30][33]. - Demand continues to grow, and September is about to enter the peak season, with expected month-on-month growth. Social inventories have decreased slightly, but warehouse receipts have been gradually recovering since August [30][33]. - Overall, the supply-demand gap is not significant, and it is necessary to be vigilant against extreme price movements caused by position liquidation and mainly adopt range-bound trading strategies [32][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the morning of September 2, President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh held the 7th China-Russia-Mongolia trilateral meeting of heads of state at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. President Xi put forward three proposals for advancing China-Russia-Mongolia cooperation [35][37]. - On the same morning, President Xi held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a visa-free policy trial for Russian citizens holding ordinary passports from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [37]. 2.2 Industry News - On September 1, the margin balance of A-shares reached 2.28 trillion yuan, hitting a record high in the history of A-shares [38]. - Starting from September 10, 2025, SHFE will further expand the range of tradable products available to Qualified Foreign Investors, including bitumen futures contracts and fuel oil, bitumen, and woodpulp option contracts [38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - On August 26, equity indices fell, while CGB futures rose. Most commodity futures fell, with coking coal, coke, and silicon metal leading the declines. The report also covered macro news and industry news, as well as provided analysis of specific futures varieties [2][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On August 26, equity indices declined, and CGB futures increased. Most commodity futures dropped, with coking coal, coke, and silicon metal having the largest declines. The top three gainers were peanut kernel, log, and TSR 20, while the top three decliners were aluminium oxide, coking coal, and silicon metal [10][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Lead**: On August 26, lead increased by 0.5% to 16,930 yuan/ton. Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole pressured the US dollar, creating a relatively positive macro environment. Lead ingot demand has picked up, and supply - demand is expected to be slightly short this week. However, the incomplete recovery of the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has pressured lead prices. The cost support for secondary lead remains high, and lead prices are fluctuating [16][18]. - **Natural Rubber**: On August 26, it rose by 0.3% to 15,885 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment is decent, and fundamentals provide short - term support. The price is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias in the short term. The Fed rate - cut expectation rose last Friday, and there are self - driven speculative expectations. It is entering the seasonal upward period, and there are many speculative themes. Short - term shipments may decrease, demand is rigid, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has picked up. The increase in supply may be delayed due to expected heavy rainfall in production areas [23][25][26]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Aluminium Oxide**: On August 26, it decreased by 3.5% to 3,069 yuan/ton. Prices may fluctuate with a bearish bias, and the main strategy is to roll short positions when prices rise unilaterally. Smelters are profitable, and their operating capacity has rebounded to a high level. The upstream - downstream balance shows a surplus, the inventory accumulation trend is expanding, and fundamentals are weak. Warehouse receipts and warehousing have increased significantly, but be wary of disruptions at Guinean mines and new production capacity control concerns [31][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Trump threatened to impose about 200% tariffs on China over rare earth magnet supply. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has clarified its position on the tariff issue multiple times. The 13th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th CPPCC National Committee was held on August 26, with members speaking on "formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development". China has built the world's largest electric vehicle charging network during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, and the proportion of installed renewable energy power generation capacity has increased from 40% to about 60% [39][40][41]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of the end of 2024, China's outward investment stock exceeded 3 trillion USD, ranking among the world's top three for 8 consecutive years, and its proportion in global outward investment increased to 7.2%. Since 2012, China's outward investment flow has ranked among the world's top three for 13 consecutive years, and China has established over 50,000 enterprises overseas, covering 190 countries and regions [42].