1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report indicates a natural decline in financial aggregate growth, and mentions points such as downplaying monetary policy quantity targets, maintaining a reasonable interest - rate ratio, and vigorously developing the bond market's "science and technology board". [2] - In October, both CPI and PPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Besides the contribution of the low - base effect, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies and industrial policies like anti - involution and capacity reduction are evident, especially in industries such as non - ferrous metals, building materials, and new energy. [2] - October financial data shows a slowdown in social financing and credit growth, with insufficient credit demand. At the same time, non - bank deposits increased by 77 billion yuan year - on - year, and the process of deposit transfer continues. [2] - The US federal government's temporary appropriation bill was passed, ending the 6 - week shutdown. The shutdown pulled down the US fourth - quarter annualized GDP growth rate by 1.5%, and the secondary impact on residents' lives is hard to estimate. The annual appropriation is still undetermined, and there may be another shutdown in two months. [2] - After the shutdown ended, the market trading theme shifted to interest - rate cuts. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a significant decline in the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut, triggering a sharp drop in US stocks and an increase in US bonds. [2] - This week's full - A trading volume was basically flat compared to last week, maintaining at around 2 trillion yuan per day. The margin trading balance rose slightly to nearly 2.5 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index once reached a new high since 4000 points but fell back at the end of Friday's session, declining 0.18% for the whole week. Major broad - based indexes turned negative at the end of Friday's session, with the CSI 300 and CSI 500 falling more than 1% for the week, the SSE 50 closing flat, and micro - cap stocks performing outstandingly. The correction of the STAR Market and ChiNext continues. [2] - In terms of basis, the recent basis fluctuation range is still small. The annualized basis of each variety has decreased compared to last week. The IH has switched to a slight discount state, and the annualized discounts of IF, IC, and IM have reached around 3%, 11%, and 14% respectively, with the term structure becoming steeper, and far - month contracts having a greater advantage in hedging costs. [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Forecast Conclusion - This week's model predicts that the movement directions of the basis for IH, IF, IC, and IM next week are strengthening, weakening, weakening, and weakening respectively [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy stance is prudent and steady with new focuses on supporting small - and micro - enterprises and stabilizing foreign trade. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year in August, with equipment manufacturing leading the growth and profits of enterprises of different sizes improving. The market may have expectations for further policies as the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is approaching. During the National Day holiday, gold reached a record high due to yen depreciation and rising US dollar index, domestic travel and consumption recovered moderately. After the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points but then had a sharp correction, especially in the semiconductor sector. Leveraged funds were active, and the total A - share trading volume rebounded to 2.5 trillion after the holiday. Most broad - based indexes rose in the four trading days around the National Day, with CSI 500 rising over 2% and others having 1 - 2% increases. The ChiNext Index quickly declined. In terms of basis, recent basis fluctuations were large, with the basis of IC and IM widening significantly and annualized basis rates reaching around 9% and 13% respectively [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Forecast Conclusion - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will move in the directions of strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and strengthening respectively next week [4] 2. Recent Forecast Conclusion - For IH and IF, the actual basis changes are shown in the range from - 1.00% to - 0.25%, and for IC, the actual basis changes are shown in the range from - 1.00% to 1.00% [3] 3. This Week's Review - The central bank's Q3 regular meeting before the National Day did not provide guidance on incremental easing measures. The 8 - month industrial enterprise profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year. The Politburo meeting in September discussed the "15th Five - Year Plan". During the National Day, gold hit a record high, domestic consumption recovered moderately. After the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points and then corrected, especially in the semiconductor sector. Leveraged funds were active, and the total A - share trading volume rebounded to 2.5 trillion. Most broad - based indexes rose around the National Day, and the ChiNext Index declined. The basis of IC and IM widened significantly [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the market showed a mild contraction in trading volume, with concentrated hotspots and weak performance of individual stocks. The press conference on the development of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" reflected a prudent policy attitude, and there was some front - running trading for the "14th Five - Year Plan". The steel industry's growth target was set, and the A - share steel sector rebounded. Overseas, the US GDP growth in Q2 was revised up, which might affect the Fed's attitude towards monetary policy. Trading volume was concentrated in the technology sector, causing a siphon effect on the whole market. The Kechuang 50 index led the market with a nearly 6.5% increase, while other sectors and stocks declined severely. The weekly gains of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 were around 1%, and the CSI 1000 and 2000 recorded 0.5% and 1.8% declines respectively. The basis of each variety fluctuated little this week, with IH maintaining an annualized premium of 2% and the annualized discounts of the other three varieties narrowing slightly compared to last week. The term structure became flatter, and long - term hedging could be maintained [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will move in the directions of weakening, strengthening, strengthening, and strengthening respectively next week [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory This Week's Market Review - The market had a mild contraction in trading volume, with concentrated hotspots and weak individual stock performance. Relevant press conferences reflected a prudent policy attitude, and there was front - running trading for the "14th Five - Year Plan". The steel industry's growth target was set, and the A - share steel sector rebounded. Overseas, the US economic data might affect the Fed's monetary policy. Trading volume was concentrated in the technology sector, causing a siphon effect on the whole market. Different stock indices had different performance this week, and the basis of each variety had small fluctuations [2] Forecast Conclusion - The model predicts that the basis of IH will weaken next week, while the basis of IF, IC, and IM will strengthen [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The consumer market is gradually regaining vitality due to the effective "trade - in" policy and positive May retail sales data [2]. - Policy content from the Lujiazui Forum fell short of market expectations, and broad - based indices showed no obvious upward or downward trends [2]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and it is still expected that there will be two interest rate cuts this year, but the timing is postponed [2]. - The full - A trading volume remained at about 1.2 trillion yuan per day this week, with a significant contraction on Friday, and broad - based indices were still in a narrow - range oscillation [2]. - The basis of each variety has recovered to some extent near the end of June, and it is still within the time window for long - side enhancement [2]. - The term structure of contracts other than the June contract has shifted upward at the near - end, and the hedging cost is still advantageous, so near - end hedging can be maintained [2]. - The term reverse arbitrage strategy generated certain returns this week [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content This Week's Review - At the beginning of the week, May macro data was released, with retail sales data being eye - catching. In the middle of the week, the Lujiazui Forum was held, but the policy content did not meet market expectations. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and is still expected to cut rates twice this year with a postponed timing [2]. - The full - A trading volume was about 1.2 trillion yuan per day on average, with a significant contraction on Friday. The broad - based indices were in a narrow - range oscillation. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 declined slightly on the weekly line, while the CSI 500 and 1000 declined by 1.7%, and the CSI 2000 declined by more than 2% [2]. - The basis of each variety recovered near the end of June. The annualized premium of IH exceeded 1%, and the discounts of IC and IM converged to around 9% and 12.5% respectively. The term structure of non - June contracts shifted upward at the near - end, and the term reverse arbitrage strategy generated returns [2]. Next Week's Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4].