资料来源: Wind,米筐,国泰君安期货研究 基差方向周度预测 本周预测结论 I C IH I M IF 下周预测方向 注: 代表预测基差下周走强 代表预测基差下周走弱。 本周回顾 国庆节前央行三季度例会召开,未给出增量放松措施指引,加力部分在于支持小微企业、稳定外 贸两个新增方向,政策面在稳中有进的基本面之下凸显稳健、审慎。8月规模以上工业企业利润同比 大增20.4%,装备制造业利润拉动作用最强,不同规模企业利润均有改善,私营企业利润增长明显加 快。另外9月政治局会议召开,研究制定"十五五"规划重大问题,并决定10月20日至23日召开二十 届四中全会,当前逐步进入会议窗口期,可能引起市场对进一步政策的预期。国庆假期期间,日元贬 值、美元指数上升推动黄金避险资产创历史新高,国内出行、消费温和修复,主题和题材上消息偏 多,A股宽基指数对海外事件反应平淡,节后上证指数突破3900点、创10年新高,但监管有意防范短 期非理性的上涨,大涨后的回调亦较为迅猛,特别是半导体板块因前期涨幅过大,触发连续大幅调 整,对指数形成拖累。杠杆资金依然较为活跃,节后首日大幅回流,单日净流入额创"924"以来新 高,全A成交节后回升至 ...

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Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The consumer market is gradually regaining vitality due to the effective "trade - in" policy and positive May retail sales data [2]. - Policy content from the Lujiazui Forum fell short of market expectations, and broad - based indices showed no obvious upward or downward trends [2]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and it is still expected that there will be two interest rate cuts this year, but the timing is postponed [2]. - The full - A trading volume remained at about 1.2 trillion yuan per day this week, with a significant contraction on Friday, and broad - based indices were still in a narrow - range oscillation [2]. - The basis of each variety has recovered to some extent near the end of June, and it is still within the time window for long - side enhancement [2]. - The term structure of contracts other than the June contract has shifted upward at the near - end, and the hedging cost is still advantageous, so near - end hedging can be maintained [2]. - The term reverse arbitrage strategy generated certain returns this week [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content This Week's Review - At the beginning of the week, May macro data was released, with retail sales data being eye - catching. In the middle of the week, the Lujiazui Forum was held, but the policy content did not meet market expectations. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and is still expected to cut rates twice this year with a postponed timing [2]. - The full - A trading volume was about 1.2 trillion yuan per day on average, with a significant contraction on Friday. The broad - based indices were in a narrow - range oscillation. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 declined slightly on the weekly line, while the CSI 500 and 1000 declined by 1.7%, and the CSI 2000 declined by more than 2% [2]. - The basis of each variety recovered near the end of June. The annualized premium of IH exceeded 1%, and the discounts of IC and IM converged to around 9% and 12.5% respectively. The term structure of non - June contracts shifted upward at the near - end, and the term reverse arbitrage strategy generated returns [2]. Next Week's Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4].