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永安基差早报-20251103
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 05:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View The report presents the basis data of various commodities as of October 31, 2025, including macro, black, energy - chemical, non - ferrous, and agricultural products, aiming to show the price relationship between spot and futures of different commodities [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - IF: Spot price was 4641, down 69. Basis was 9, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.26 [2]. - IH: Spot price was 3012, down 35. Basis was - 4, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.56 [2]. - IC: Spot price was 7331, down 55. Basis was 89, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.75 [2]. Black - For example, Shanghai's rebar spot price was 3230, unchanged. Basis was 124, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.48 [3]. - Tianjin Port's coke spot price was 1710, unchanged. Basis was - 67, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.45 [3]. Energy - Chemical - Port methanol spot price was 2125, unchanged. Basis was - 55, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.88 [3]. - East China's PTA spot price was 4514, up 16. Basis was - 72, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.68 [3]. Non - Ferrous - Copper spot price was 87540, down 510. Basis was 0, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.26 [4]. - Aluminum spot price was 21280, up 80. Basis was 0, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of 0.27 [4]. Agricultural Products - Jiangsu's 43% soybean meal spot price was 2970, up 30. Basis was - 51, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.21 [5]. - Jiangsu's first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8460, up 60. Basis was 332, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.25 [5].
永安基差早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 09:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No explicit core viewpoint presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers the latest data on the basis of various futures products as of October 30, 2025, including spot prices, price changes, basis, corresponding contracts, and basis deviation degrees. 3. Summary by Category Macro - On October 30, 2025, the spot price of IF was 4710, down 38, with a basis of 20 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of 0.51 [2] - The spot price of IH was 3047, down 16, with a basis of 2 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of 0.17 [2] - The spot price of IC was 7386, down 95, with a basis of 87 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of 0.75 [2] Black - In Shanghai on October 30, 2025, the spot price of rebar was 3230, down 10, with a basis of 124 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.48 [3] - In Beijing, the spot price of rebar was 3270, down 10, with a basis of 164 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.39 [3] - In Shanghai, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was 3330, unchanged, with a basis of 12 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.10 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of ore was 848, down 5, with a basis of 46 and a basis deviation of 0.35 [3] - At Tianjin Port, the spot price of coke was 1710, unchanged, with a basis of - 77 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.50 [3] - For port warehouse receipts, the spot price of coking coal was 1662, up 34, with a basis of 374 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.82 [3] - At Qinhuangdao Port, the spot price of steam coal was 766, unchanged, with a basis of - 35 for the 2511 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.17 [3] - For low - priced glass in Shahe, the spot price was 1113, unchanged, with a basis of 22 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.26 [3] - For low - priced glass in Hubei, the spot price was 1040, unchanged, with a basis of - 51 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.08 [3] - In Yinchuan, the spot price of ferrosilicon was 5620, up 50, with a basis of - 50 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.46 [3] - In Inner Mongolia, the spot price of silicomanganese was 6080, up 30, with a basis of 138 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.46 [3] Energy and Chemicals - For port methanol on October 30, 2025, the spot price was 2158, unchanged, with a basis of - 50 and a basis deviation of - 0.88 [3] - In Henan, the spot price of methanol was 2290, unchanged, with a basis of 82 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.47 [3] - In southern Shandong, the spot price of methanol was 2455, unchanged, with a basis of 247 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.79 [3] - In Hebei, the spot price of methanol was 2600, unchanged, with a basis of 392 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.88 [3] - In East China, the spot price of PTA was 4498, down 60, with a basis of - 72 and a basis deviation of - 0.68 [3] - In East China, the spot price of PP was 6540, down 30, with a basis of - 111 and a basis deviation of - 0.87 [3] - In North China, the spot price of LLDPE was 6870, down 20, with a basis of - 98 and a basis deviation of - 0.58 [3] - For high - end PVC, the spot price was 4715, up 55, with a basis of - 90 and a basis deviation of 0.62 [3] - For low - end PVC, the spot price was 4645, up 65, with a basis of - 160 and a basis deviation of 0.72 [3] - In East China, the spot price of asphalt was 3500, unchanged, with a basis of 226 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.33 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of asphalt was 3270, down 10, with a basis of 96 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.00 [3] - In South China, the spot price of asphalt was 3520, unchanged, with a basis of 266 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.68 [3] - For domestic ethylene glycol, the spot price was 4112, down 59, with a basis of 80 and a basis deviation of 0.75 [3] - The spot price of soda ash was 1150, down 30, with a basis of - 85 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.62 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of pulp was 4990, up 5, with a basis of - 234 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.87 [3] - In East China, the spot price of staple fiber was 6230, up 5, with a basis of 26 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of 0.36 [3] - The spot price of urea was 1520, unchanged, with a basis of - 107 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.83 [3] - In Shanghai, the spot price of natural rubber was 14900, down 80, with a basis of - 500 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.46 [3] - For whole latex, the spot price of natural rubber was 14700, down 225, with a basis of - 700 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.54 [3] - In Qingdao, the spot price of 20 - number rubber was 1845, down 20, with a basis of 594 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of 0.92 [3] - The spot price of styrene was 6395, down 80, with a basis of - 26 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.97 [3] Non - ferrous Metals - On October 30, 2025, the spot price of copper was 88050, up 280, with a basis of - 55 and a basis deviation of - 0.62 [4] - The spot price of international copper was 78450, up 385, with a basis of 120 for the 2511 contract and a basis deviation of 0.82 [4] - The spot price of aluminum was 21200, up 30, with a basis of - 10 and a basis deviation of 0.12 [4] - The spot price of zinc was 22250, down 40, with a basis of - 40 and a basis deviation of - 0.58 [4] - The spot price of lead was 17200, unchanged, with a basis of - 210 and a basis deviation of - 0.40 [4] - The spot price of nickel was 121450, up 250, with a basis of 400 and a basis deviation of 0.74 [4] - The spot price of tin was 284000, down 1200, with a basis of 400 and a basis deviation of 0.26 [4] Agricultural Products - In Jiangsu on October 30, 2025, the spot price of 43% soybean meal was 2940, up 10, with a basis of - 54 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.22 [5] - In Jiangsu, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8400, up 60, with a basis of 232 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.15 [5] - For the average price of 36% rapeseed meal in Guangdong, the spot price was 2530, up 30, with a basis of 129 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.88 [5] - For the market average price of rapeseed oil, the spot price was 10053, unchanged, with a basis of 524 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.98 [5] - In Guangzhou, the spot price of 24° palm oil was 8690, unchanged, with a basis of - 138 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.97 [5] - Nationwide, the spot price of cotton was 14545, up 10, with a basis of 945 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.41 [5] - In Guangxi, the spot price of white sugar was 5750, unchanged, with a basis of 278 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.09 [5] - In Yunnan, the spot price of white sugar was 5820, unchanged, with a basis of 348 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.45 [5] - In Shijiazhuang, Hebei, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2960, unchanged, with a basis of - 197 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.58 [5] - In Dalian, Liaoning, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2890, unchanged, with a basis of - 267 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.61 [5] - In Dezhou, Shandong, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2650, unchanged, with a basis of - 507 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.76 [5] - In Shangqiu, Henan, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2700, unchanged, with a basis of - 457 for the 2512 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.78 [5] - In Bei'an, the spot price of soybeans was 4060, unchanged, with a basis of - 43 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.78 [5] - In Jiamusi, the spot price of soybeans was 4140, unchanged, with a basis of 37 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.43 [5] - In Changchun, the spot price of corn was 2240, unchanged, with a basis of 129 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.62 [5] - In Weifang, the spot price of corn was 2350, unchanged, with a basis of 239 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.55 [5] - In Changchun, the spot price of starch was 2580, unchanged, with a basis of 131 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.41 [5] - In Weifang, the spot price of starch was 2605, unchanged, with a basis of 176 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of 0.62 [5] - In Kaifeng, Henan, the spot price of live pigs was 12560, down 50, with a basis of 680 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.27 [5] - In Hebei, the spot price of red dates was 9500, down 100, with a basis of - 725 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.10 [5] - In Shandong, the spot price of apples was 7400, unchanged, with a basis of - 1868 for the 2601 contract and a basis deviation of - 0.79 [5]
永安基差早报-20251027
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View No explicit core view presented in the given content. The report mainly provides detailed data on the basis of various commodities. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Macro - On October 24, 2025, the spot price of IF was 4661 with a change of 55, the basis was 26 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.62 [2] - The spot price of IH was 3046 with a change of 19, the basis was -3 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.41 [2] - The spot price of IC was 7259 with a change of 116, the basis was 99 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.81 [2] Black - In Shanghai on October 24, 2025, the spot price of rebar was 3200 with a change of -20, the basis was 154 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.83 [3] - In Beijing, the spot price of rebar was 3190 with a change of 10, the basis was 144 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.12 [3] - In Shanghai, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was 3290 with no change, the basis was 40 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.63 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of ore was 825 with a change of -6, the basis was 54, and the basis deviation was 0.46 [3] - At Tianjin Port, the spot price of coke was 1656 with no change, the basis was -102 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.64 [3] - For port warehouse receipts of coking coal, the spot price was 1617 with a change of 3, the basis was 369 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.80 [3] - At Qinhuangdao Port, the spot price of steam coal was 769 with a change of 2, the basis was -32 corresponding to the 2511 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.17 [3] - For low - price glass in Shahe, the spot price was 1104 with no change, the basis was 12 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.14 [3] - For low - price glass in Hubei, the spot price was 1070 with no change, the basis was -22 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.15 [3] - In Yinchuan, the spot price of ferrosilicon was 5600 with a change of 20, the basis was -62 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.58 [3] - In Inner Mongolia, the spot price of ferromanganese was 6050 with no change, the basis was 208 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.74 [3] Energy and Chemicals - For port methanol on October 24, 2025, the spot price was 2232 with no change, the basis was -40, and the basis deviation was -0.87 [3] - In Henan, the spot price of methanol was 2350 with no change, the basis was 78 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.40 [3] - In southern Shandong, the spot price of methanol was 2485 with no change, the basis was 213 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.55 [3] - In Hebei, the spot price of methanol was 2785 with no change, the basis was 513 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.97 [3] - In East China, the spot price of PTA was 4436 with a change of 13, the basis was -82, and the basis deviation was -0.83 [3] - In East China, the spot price of PP was 6575 with a change of 15, the basis was -87, and the basis deviation was -0.67 [3] - In North China, the spot price of LLDPE was 6910 with a change of -10, the basis was -59, and the basis deviation was -0.20 [3] - For high - end PVC, the spot price was 4625 with no change, the basis was -90, and the basis deviation was 0.64 [3] - For low - end PVC, the spot price was 4555 with no change, the basis was -160, and the basis deviation was 0.72 [3] - In East China, the spot price of asphalt was 3500 with no change, the basis was 201 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.22 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of asphalt was 3350 with a change of 20, the basis was 131 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.09 [3] - In South China, the spot price of asphalt was 3500 with no change, the basis was 201 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.49 [3] - For domestic ethylene glycol, the spot price was 4172 with a change of -13, the basis was 95, and the basis deviation was 0.87 [3] - The spot price of soda ash was 1150 with no change, the basis was -79 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.57 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of pulp was 4990 with a change of -10, the basis was -250 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.92 [3] - In East China, the spot price of staple fiber was 6180 with a change of 30, the basis was 40 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.49 [3] - The spot price of urea was 1490 with no change, the basis was -152 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.96 [3] - In Shanghai, the spot price of natural rubber was 14960 with a change of 80, the basis was -375 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.63 [3] - For whole latex natural rubber, the spot price was 14635 with a change of 90, the basis was -700 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.56 [3] - In Qingdao, the spot price of 20 - number rubber was 1855 with a change of 25, the basis was 707 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.96 [3] - The spot price of styrene was 6515 with a change of -45, the basis was -24 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.98 [3] Non - ferrous Metals - On October 24, 2025, the spot price of copper was 86475 with a change of 975, the basis was 10, and the basis deviation was -0.18 [4] - The spot price of international copper was 76775 with a change of 1080, the basis was -1385 corresponding to the 2511 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.76 [4] - The spot price of aluminum was 21110 with a change of 70, the basis was -30, and the basis deviation was -0.22 [4] - The spot price of zinc was 22190 with a change of 90, the basis was -60, and the basis deviation was -0.82 [4] - The spot price of lead was 17300 with a change of 175, the basis was -215, and the basis deviation was -0.43 [4] - The spot price of nickel was 122050 with a change of 750, the basis was 400, and the basis deviation was 0.76 [4] - The spot price of tin was 281900 with a change of 1900, the basis was -2400, and the basis deviation was -0.85 [4] Agricultural Products - In Jiangsu on October 24, 2025, the spot price of 43% soybean meal was 2910 with no change, the basis was -23 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.07 [5] - In Jiangsu, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8440 with a change of 30, the basis was 246 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.10 [5] - The average spot price of 36% rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 2460 with a change of -10, the basis was 135 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.90 [5] - The market average spot price of rapeseed oil was 10283 with no change, the basis was 522 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.98 [5] - In Guangzhou, the spot price of 24° palm oil was 9050 with a change of 50, the basis was -72 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.88 [5] - The national spot price of cotton was 14555 with a change of -20, the basis was 1015 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.57 [5] - In Guangxi, the spot price of white sugar was 5750 with no change, the basis was 304 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.06 [5] - In Yunnan, the spot price of white sugar was 5830 with no change, the basis was 384 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.50 [5] - In Shijiazhuang, Hebei, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2960 with a change of 90, the basis was -126 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.47 [5] - In Dalian, Liaoning, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2890 with a change of 90, the basis was -196 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.54 [5] - In Dezhou, Shandong, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2750 with a change of 100, the basis was -336 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.68 [5] - In Shangqiu, Henan, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2800 with a change of 100, the basis was -286 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.70 [5] - In Bei'an, the spot price of soybeans was 4060 with no change, the basis was -44 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.80 [5] - In Jiamusi, the spot price of soybeans was 4140 with no change, the basis was 36 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.45 [5] - In Changchun, the spot price of corn was 2240 with no change, the basis was 107 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.47 [5] - In Weifang, the spot price of corn was 2360 with no change, the basis was 227 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.48 [5] - In Changchun, the spot price of starch was 2580 with no change, the basis was 109 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.12 [5] - In Weifang, the spot price of starch was 2605 with no change, the basis was 174 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.60 [5] - In Kaifeng, Henan, the spot price of live pigs was 11850 with a change of -80, the basis was -325 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.92 [5] - In Hebei, the spot price of red dates was 9600 with no change, the basis was -1150 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.55 [5] - In Shandong, the spot price of apples was 6400 with no change, the basis was -2450 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.98 [5]
永安基差早报-20251021
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 03:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the basis data of various futures varieties on October 20, 2025, including macro, black, energy - chemical, non - ferrous, and agricultural products. It shows the spot price, spot price change, basis, basis - corresponding contract, and basis deviation degree of each variety [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - The spot price of IF on October 20, 2025, was 4538, with a change of 24, a basis of 31, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.76 [2]. - The spot price of IH was 2975, with a change of 7, a basis of 4, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.44 [2]. - The spot price of IC was 7070, with a change of 54, a basis of 160, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.96 [2]. Black - For Shanghai's rebar, the spot price on October 20, 2025, was 3200, with no change, a basis of 155, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.84 [3]. - Beijing's rebar had a spot price of 3190, a change of - 10, a basis of 145, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.14 [3]. - Shanghai's hot - rolled coil had a spot price of 3270, no change, a basis of 55, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.80 [3]. - Shandong's iron ore had a spot price of 824, no change, a basis of 57, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.46 [3]. - Tianjin Port's coke had a spot price of 1656, no change, a basis of - 54, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.40 [3]. - Port - warehouse receipt coking coal had a spot price of 1600, a change of 72, a basis of 312, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.32 [3]. - Qinhuangdao Port's thermal coal had a spot price of 753, a change of 9, a basis of - 48, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.26 [3]. - Shahe's low - price glass had a spot price of 1135, a change of - 15, a basis of 44, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.36 [3]. - Hubei's low - price glass had a spot price of 1090, a change of - 20, a basis of - 1, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.28 [3]. - Yinchuan's ferrosilicon had a spot price of 5530, no change, a basis of - 26, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.34 [3]. - Inner Mongolia's ferromanganese had a spot price of 6050, no change, a basis of 262, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.91 [3]. Energy - Chemical - Port methanol had a spot price of 2256, no change, a basis of - 10, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.59 [3]. - Henan methanol had a spot price of 2350, no change, a basis of 84, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.47 [3]. - Lunan methanol had a spot price of 2500, no change, a basis of 234, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.70 [3]. - Hebei methanol had a spot price of 2630, no change, a basis of 364, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.86 [3]. - East China PTA had a spot price of 4299, a change of - 18, a basis of - 85, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.88 [3]. - East China PP had a spot price of 6490, a change of 20, a basis of - 75, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.59 [3]. - North China LLDPE had a spot price of 6840, a change of 10, a basis of - 39, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.10 [3]. - High - end PVC had a spot price of 4630, a change of 15, a basis of - 90, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.65 [3]. - Low - end PVC had a spot price of 4560, a change of 45, a basis of - 160, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.72 [3]. - East China asphalt had a spot price of 3550, no change, a basis of 409, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [3]. - Shandong asphalt had a spot price of 3330, a change of - 30, a basis of 269, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.72 [3]. - South China asphalt had a spot price of 3500, no change, a basis of 359, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [3]. - Inner - market ethylene glycol had a spot price of 4077, no change, a basis of 74, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.70 [3]. - Soda ash had a spot price of 1130, a change of 10, a basis of - 89, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.67 [3]. - Shandong pulp had a spot price of 4960, a change of 10, a basis of - 196, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.74 [3]. - East China short - fiber had a spot price of 6075, a change of - 25, a basis of 47, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.56 [3]. - Urea had a spot price of 1490, no change, a basis of - 110, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.88 [3]. - Shanghai natural rubber had a spot price of 14510, a change of 30, a basis of - 300, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.74 [3]. - Whole - latex natural rubber had a spot price of 13810, a change of 115, a basis of - 1000, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.04 [3]. - Qingdao 20 - number rubber had a spot price of 1825, a change of 10, a basis of 773, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 1.00 [3]. - Styrene had a spot price of 6370, a change of - 115, a basis of 5, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.90 [3]. Non - Ferrous - Copper had a spot price of 85650, a change of 875, a basis of 75, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.30 [4]. - International copper had a spot price of 75790, a change of 710, a basis of - 80, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.69 [4]. - Aluminum had a spot price of 20930, a change of - 20, a basis of 10, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.45 [4]. - Zinc had a spot price of 21870, a change of 20, a basis of - 40, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.60 [4]. - Lead had a spot price of 16925, a change of 25, a basis of - 200, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.31 [4]. - Nickel had a spot price of 121300, a change of - 250, a basis of 400, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.78 [4]. - Tin had a spot price of 280000, a change of - 1000, a basis of 660, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.35 [4]. Agricultural Products - 43% Jiangsu soybean meal had a spot price of 2870, no change, a basis of - 25, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.08 [5]. - Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil had a spot price of 8540, a change of 50, a basis of 242, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.12 [5]. - Guangdong average - price 36% rapeseed meal had a spot price of 2480, a change of 40, a basis of 130, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [5]. - Market average - price rapeseed oil had a spot price of 10420, a change of 77, a basis of 502, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 1.00 [5]. - Guangzhou 24° palm oil had a spot price of 9290, a change of 80, a basis of - 28, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.75 [5]. - National cotton had a spot price of 14480, a change of 45, a basis of 1015, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.58 [5]. - Guangxi white sugar had a spot price of 5770, a change of - 20, a basis of 342, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.26 [5]. - Yunnan white sugar had a spot price of 5840, a change of - 20, a basis of 412, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.58 [5]. - Hebei Shijiazhuang fresh eggs had a spot price of 2890, a change of - 110, a basis of 120, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.05 [5]. - Liaoning Dalian fresh eggs had a spot price of 2820, a change of - 110, a basis of 50, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.16 [5]. - Shandong Dezhou fresh eggs had a spot price of 2750, a change of - 100, a basis of - 20, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.24 [5]. - Henan Shangqiu fresh eggs had a spot price of 2800, a change of - 100, a basis of 30, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.36 [5]. - Bei'an soybeans had a spot price of 4050, no change, a basis of - 36, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.78 [5]. - Jiamusi soybeans had a spot price of 4120, no change, a basis of 34, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.45 [5]. - Changchun corn had a spot price of 2240, no change, a basis of 102, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.44 [5]. - Weifang corn had a spot price of 2360, no change, a basis of 222, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.45 [5]. - Changchun starch had a spot price of 2580, no change, a basis of 170, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.67 [5]. - Weifang starch had a spot price of 2605, no change, a basis of 225, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [5]. - Henan Kaifeng pigs had a spot price of 11400, a change of 160, a basis of - 755, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.94 [5]. - Hebei jujubes had a spot price of 9600, no change, a basis of - 1785, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.84 [5]. - Shandong apples had a spot price of 6400, a change of - 1000, a basis of - 2465, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.98 [5].
广发期货日评-20250725
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 02:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].
基差方向周度预测-20250620
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 14:48
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The consumer market is gradually regaining vitality due to the effective "trade - in" policy and positive May retail sales data [2]. - Policy content from the Lujiazui Forum fell short of market expectations, and broad - based indices showed no obvious upward or downward trends [2]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and it is still expected that there will be two interest rate cuts this year, but the timing is postponed [2]. - The full - A trading volume remained at about 1.2 trillion yuan per day this week, with a significant contraction on Friday, and broad - based indices were still in a narrow - range oscillation [2]. - The basis of each variety has recovered to some extent near the end of June, and it is still within the time window for long - side enhancement [2]. - The term structure of contracts other than the June contract has shifted upward at the near - end, and the hedging cost is still advantageous, so near - end hedging can be maintained [2]. - The term reverse arbitrage strategy generated certain returns this week [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content This Week's Review - At the beginning of the week, May macro data was released, with retail sales data being eye - catching. In the middle of the week, the Lujiazui Forum was held, but the policy content did not meet market expectations. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and is still expected to cut rates twice this year with a postponed timing [2]. - The full - A trading volume was about 1.2 trillion yuan per day on average, with a significant contraction on Friday. The broad - based indices were in a narrow - range oscillation. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 declined slightly on the weekly line, while the CSI 500 and 1000 declined by 1.7%, and the CSI 2000 declined by more than 2% [2]. - The basis of each variety recovered near the end of June. The annualized premium of IH exceeded 1%, and the discounts of IC and IM converged to around 9% and 12.5% respectively. The term structure of non - June contracts shifted upward at the near - end, and the term reverse arbitrage strategy generated returns [2]. Next Week's Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4].
A股先抑后扬,关注两会后交易机会
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-03-16 06:50
Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the A-share market, suggesting a focus on trading opportunities post the Two Sessions [1]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a rebound after an initial decline, with the CSI 300 index facing resistance at the 850-day moving average, while the weekly indicators turned positive [2]. - The report highlights that the implied volatility of options has decreased, with a notable shift in the maximum open interest strike prices for both call and put options remaining stable [2][33]. - The report emphasizes the performance of the CSI 1000 index, which reached a new high for the year, with indicators showing a bullish trend [2][37]. Summary by Sections 1. CSI 300 Index Options (IO) - The CSI 300 index's weekly K-line chart shows a bullish trend, with the index closing above the 250-week moving average [9]. - The current month’s futures contract is trading at a discount to the underlying asset, while the next month’s contract shows a stable basis [19][22]. - The report notes a decrease in trading volume for options, but an increase in open interest, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [27][30]. 2. CSI 1000 Index Options (MO) - The CSI 1000 index has maintained a bullish trend, with the weekly indicators remaining positive [35]. - The current month’s options pricing reflects a slight decline, with the maximum open interest for call options at 6600 and for put options at 6000, indicating market positioning [38][31]. - The implied volatility for the CSI 1000 options has shown fluctuations, initially decreasing before rising again [41].