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让养老更有“底”,让消费更有“力”——完善基本养老保险的四个建议 | 宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-08-25 11:44
以下文章来源于持志以恒2020 ,作者罗志恒 持志以恒2020 . 思索天地自然、社会与人心……在这里,追求自由与思想。 文/ 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长 罗志恒 经过长期建设和发展,我国社会保障体系取得长足进步,持续满足人民对 美好生活的需要,但是与居民期待比仍有差距。当前我国 基本养老保障 体系面临保障水平偏低、不同群体和地区差异较大、可持续性有待加强、 统筹层次偏低等问题 ,这在一定程度上制约了消费能力和意愿。因此完 善基本养老保险体系,既是加强民生保障的应有之义,也是提振消费的重 要抓手。 我国基本养老保险体系的现状概述 历经70余年探索,我国已建成以基本养老保险为基础、企业年金和职业年金为补充、个人储蓄型养老保险和商业养老保险相结合的三支柱养老保障体系。 其中,作为第一支柱的基本养老保险由国家主导实施,包括城镇职工基本养老保险和城乡居民基本养老保险,是我国养老保障体系的基础,承担兜底保障 责任。 我国基本养老保险覆盖群体稳步扩大、参保率已达95%。根据人社部数据,截至2024年底,我国基本养老保险参保人数为10.7亿、参保率已达到95%(参 保人数/除在校学生和现役军人以外的16岁及以上人口) ...
【粤开宏观】老有所养:中国基本养老保险的问题与建议
Yuekai Securities· 2025-08-20 14:08
Group 1: Current Status of Basic Pension Insurance System - The basic pension insurance system in China has a coverage rate of 95%, with 1.07 billion participants as of 2024[18] - Urban employee pensions have been increasing steadily, with a 1.6 times growth in the minimum standard for rural residents' basic pensions over the past decade[18] - The average monthly pension for urban residents in 2024 is only 246 yuan, which is below the rural minimum living standard of approximately 594 yuan[26] Group 2: Key Issues in the Pension System - The pension replacement rate for urban employees has decreased to 52% in 2024, down 8.7 percentage points since 2018, which is below the International Labour Organization's recommended minimum of 55%[26] - There are significant disparities in pension benefits among different groups, with urban residents receiving an average of 223 yuan, while civil servants and enterprise retirees receive 6,243 yuan and 3,271 yuan respectively, making the former's benefits 28 times and 15 times lower[30] - The reliance on fiscal subsidies for basic pension insurance is high, with subsidies reaching 1.8 trillion yuan in 2023, accounting for approximately 26% of total pension expenditures[9] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - It is suggested to implement a "State-owned Assets-Finance-Social Security" linkage reform to gradually increase the average monthly pension for urban residents to the rural minimum living standard, requiring an additional funding of nearly 800 billion yuan annually[57] - A phased approach to reduce the fiscal subsidy gap between different groups is recommended, ensuring that subsidies reflect the contribution levels of each group[59] - Accelerating the nationwide coordination of the basic pension insurance system is crucial to adapt to population mobility and improve the fiscal relationship between central and local governments[61]
粤开宏观:老有所养:中国基本养老保险的问题与建议
Yuekai Securities· 2025-08-20 12:25
Group 1: Current Status of Basic Pension Insurance - The basic pension insurance coverage rate in China has reached 95%, with 1.07 billion participants by the end of 2024[14] - Urban employee pensions have been increasing for 20 consecutive years, while the minimum standard for rural residents' pensions has grown 1.6 times over the past decade[14] - The average monthly pension for urban residents in 2024 is only 246 CNY, which is below the rural minimum living standard of approximately 594 CNY[25] Group 2: Issues in the Pension System - The pension replacement rate for urban employees has decreased to 52% in 2024, down 8.7 percentage points since 2018[25] - There are significant disparities in pension benefits among different groups, with urban residents receiving an average of 223 CNY, while civil servants and enterprise retirees receive 6243 CNY and 3271 CNY respectively, making the former 28 times and 15 times lower[32] - In 2023, fiscal subsidies for basic pension insurance reached 1.8 trillion CNY, accounting for approximately 26% of total pension fund expenditures[6] Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - It is suggested to increase the average monthly pension for urban residents from 246 CNY to the rural minimum living standard of about 600 CNY, requiring an annual funding increase of nearly 800 billion CNY[51] - A phased approach to equalize fiscal subsidies across different groups is recommended, ensuring that pension differences reflect contribution levels rather than excessive reliance on fiscal support[52] - Accelerating the nationwide coordination of basic pension insurance is essential to adapt to population mobility and improve the financial balance between regions[50]