证券研究报告 | 宏观经济研究*动态点评 2025 年 08 月 17 日 宏观经济研究 内需仍然低迷，政策仍需加码——7 月经济数据点评 数据： 7 月社会消费零售总额为 38780 亿元，同比增长 2.7%；1-7 月工业增加 值增速为 6.3%；全国固定资产投资累计同比增长 1.6%；其中基建投资 （不含电力）同比增长 3.2%，制造业投资同比增长 6.2%，房地产开发 投资下降 12%。 要点： 2025 年 7 月社会消费零售总额为 38780 亿元，同比增长 2.7%，增速较 上月 3.8%放缓。7 月住户存款同比增速 10.27%，较上月放慢 0.51 个百 分点；住户贷款同比增速 2.65%，放慢 0.33 个百分点，居民消费活跃积 极性不强，加杠杆意愿有限。结构上看，家电音像器材类、粮油食品类、 通讯器材类商品拉动作用最为突出，"以旧换新"政策刺激效果依然显著； 石油及制品类、汽车类消费较弱，7 月 OPEC 增产以及市场对美国关税的 担忧对油价形成下拉作用，原油价格震荡下行，石油及制品类零售额同比 负增且降幅扩大，拖累社零同比增速 0.44 个百分点。 1-7 月地产销售同比降幅继续扩大。 ...

人们往往更关注"再分配"在调节收入差距、促进社会公平方面的作用，但"再分配"的影响还不止于此。 本文在已有研究的基础上，提出稳增长政策应更加关注收入分配结构与经济增长的关系——在我国经济 发展现阶段，主要是再分配影响消费，进而影响经济增长。 我们认为，有关政策应兼顾短期与长期，将稳增长与促改革相结合，既有利当前，又惠及长远，从健全 保障和改善民生制度体系的层面着力，引导经济需求结构进一步向消费、尤其是服务消费倾斜。一是增 加对居民家庭的转移支付，并完善转移支付制度；二是以政府购买增加民生领域投入，优化政府支出结 构，提高资金使用效率，撬动市场供给和有关投资；三是将税制改革与经济结构调整相结合，着力解决 制约经济高质量发展的结构性矛盾，同时通过税收政策引导消费；四是加大个人养老金税优力度，实现 部分存款向个人养老金账户转化，并带动有关服务供给。 宏观收入分配结构与经济增长的关系 宏观收入分配结构与经济增长的关系是经济增长理论中一个历史较为悠久的研究主题。如果从企业、政 府、居民部门间的收入份额的视角看，收入分配结构可以经由资源在消费、投资中的分配影响经济增 长。 文章提出稳增长政策应重视收入分配结构与促消费、稳 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for targeted redistribution policies to boost consumption and promote economic growth, especially in the context of increasing external uncertainties [1][2] - It highlights that improving the redistribution mechanism could be key to stimulating internal consumption and economic growth, as the current income distribution structure is inadequate [1][3] - The article points out that the disposable income of residents in China is significantly lower compared to major economies like Japan, Germany, and the United States, indicating a need for better redistribution adjustments [3][4] Group 2 - The article suggests that policies should balance short-term and long-term goals, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion to enhance the social welfare system and shift economic demand towards consumption, particularly in services [2][16] - It recommends increasing transfer payments to households and optimizing government spending structures to improve efficiency and stimulate market supply and investment [2][17] - The article discusses the importance of tax reforms that align with economic structural adjustments to address constraints on high-quality economic development and guide consumption through tax policies [2][18] Group 3 - The article notes that the growth rate of urban residents' disposable income has generally lagged behind GDP growth, particularly in urban areas, indicating a need for policy intervention [4][11] - It highlights that social security spending in China is relatively low, accounting for only 3.1% of GDP, suggesting significant room for improvement in public spending on social welfare [4][20] - The article emphasizes the potential of government investment in social services to stimulate market demand and improve living standards, particularly in areas like elderly care and childcare [17][19] Group 4 - The article discusses the potential for issuing additional government bonds to finance consumption-oriented policies, indicating that there is still room for fiscal expansion [20][22] - It suggests that the government should balance funding between consumption and investment to ensure sustainable economic growth, especially in light of external uncertainties [23] - The article concludes that enhancing domestic consumption is crucial for stabilizing foreign investment and fostering high-quality development in the consumer market [23]