（来源：求是网） 转自：求是网 二是收入分配结构影响消费增长。这是导致消费不足的一个结构性、体制性因素，具有长期历史原 因。不同的收入分配结构下，经济下行对消费影响程度是不一样的。根据有关资料，在国民收入初次分 配中，我国劳动者报酬占GDP比重、居民收入在国民收入中的占比均低于大多数发达经济体。2024年， 我国城乡收入比仍为2.34倍，反映出城乡居民收入分配差距依然较大。在已经彻底解决生存型温饱型需 求的条件下，经济下行对低收入及中低收入群体的收入和消费会产生较大冲击，导致消费收缩大于收入 收缩。而这部分人群是我国当前消费格局的基础和主体，其收入和消费受到影响，可能使经济下行和消 费下行的相互影响呈现放大效应。这是因为，我国进入中等偏上收入经济体行列后，中高收入群体的消 费倾向即进入稳定期或低速增长期，而中低收入群体的消费升级和扩大一旦受到收入制约，就会引起总 体消费增速下降和扩大消费难度加大的问题。 三是房地产市场调整对内需产生冲击。这既是当前加重内需不足的短期原因，也是影响内需走势的 中长期问题。我国房地产市场用20多年时间基本上走完了西方发达国家要经历许多个房地产周期才能走 完的路。有关资料表明，目前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is undergoing fundamental changes, transitioning from a state of scarcity to one of surplus, which requires new strategies for managing economic expansion and consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Transition - The core change in the Chinese economy is the shift from a scarcity economy to a surplus economy [1]. - There is a need to explore how to expand consumption under the current economic conditions, focusing on the underlying constraints [3]. Group 2: Consumption Expansion - To effectively expand consumption, it is essential to increase income levels, which are primarily driven by employment opportunities, particularly in the private sector [3]. - The relationship between consumption expansion and existing wealth is critical, with real estate prices currently in a downward trend, affecting 60% of household wealth and severely limiting consumption growth [3]. Group 3: Wealth Preservation - The appreciation and protection of existing wealth depend on legal safeguards and cultural recognition of its importance [3]. - The lack of emphasis on preserving existing wealth contributes to a cycle where current income alone cannot sustain living standards, highlighting the need for wealth preservation to facilitate a virtuous economic cycle [3]. Group 4: Societal Concerns - There is a prevailing sense of uncertainty among the Chinese population regarding the future, which influences savings behavior, particularly among younger generations whose income levels have not increased significantly [4]. - The elderly population tends to save their increased retirement income rather than spend it, leading to lower consumption levels [4]. Group 5: Social Security and Consumption Scenarios - Improving the social security system and adjusting fiscal spending towards public welfare is necessary for sustainable economic growth [5]. - As per capita GDP in China is projected to reach $1,400 by 2025, there will be an increasing number of high-net-worth individuals, necessitating the optimization of consumption scenarios across different social strata [5]. - Consumption upgrades should not be viewed as wasteful; rather, they are essential for driving economic growth in modern conditions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic planning and goals set forth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" for China's economic and social development, emphasizing the importance of achieving a per capita GDP level comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, which requires maintaining an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.8% during the "15th Five-Year" period [1][6][10]. Economic Growth and Productivity - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range while steadily improving total factor productivity and significantly increasing the resident consumption rate [1][6]. - To achieve the target of per capita GDP reaching around $25,000 by 2035, an average annual growth rate of 4.8% is necessary, with potential growth rates estimated between 4.5% and 4.8% [6][7]. Demographic Challenges and Consumption - China is entering a phase of negative population growth and moderate aging, with projections indicating that by 2032, over 21% of the population will be aged 65 and above, which will impact consumption patterns [7]. - The emphasis on increasing the resident consumption rate is crucial to counteract the negative effects of demographic changes and to enhance the income levels and consumption capabilities of residents, particularly the elderly [7][10]. Income Distribution and Middle-Income Expansion - Expanding the middle-income group is essential for achieving higher levels of common prosperity and modernization by 2035 [10]. - Improving income distribution requires coordinated efforts across primary, secondary, and tertiary distribution, with a focus on enhancing labor market conditions and reducing structural unemployment [10][12]. Government Investment and Social Services - The article highlights the need for government spending to focus more on "investing in people" rather than solely on material investments, suggesting a shift in priorities to enhance social welfare and public services [8][13]. - Increasing the share of social spending in GDP is necessary to improve the quality of life and reduce poverty transmission across generations [13]. Artificial Intelligence and Employment - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) presents both challenges and opportunities for employment, necessitating alignment with an "employment-first strategy" to ensure that AI enhances rather than replaces human labor [14][15]. - AI can help address structural employment issues by improving labor productivity and facilitating the transition of labor from low-productivity agricultural sectors to higher-productivity non-agricultural sectors [20][22]. Urbanization and Household Registration Reform - The article discusses the ongoing urbanization process and the need for reforming the household registration system to facilitate labor mobility and improve access to public services for rural residents transitioning to urban areas [16][17]. - Enhancing public services in urban areas and reducing the disparity in service quality between urban and rural regions are critical for successful urbanization [17]. Agricultural Modernization - The potential for agricultural modernization in China is significant, with opportunities for labor transfer from agriculture to higher productivity sectors, supported by advancements in technology and AI [20][22]. - Modern agriculture is characterized by high labor productivity, large operational scales, and the application of scientific technologies, which can be further enhanced through AI [21][22].

Economic Growth and Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a reasonable economic growth rate to achieve a per capita GDP at the level of middle-income countries by 2035, requiring an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.8% during this period [6][10] - The plan emphasizes the importance of improving total factor productivity, increasing the resident consumption rate, and ensuring synchronized growth of resident income and economic growth [6][10] Consumption and Income Distribution - The focus on increasing the resident consumption rate is crucial due to the anticipated challenges from negative population growth and aging demographics, which will impact demand [7][10] - The Gini coefficient of 0.465 indicates a need for improved income distribution, with efforts to ensure that low-income groups see faster income growth compared to high-income groups [7][10][12] Middle-Income Group Expansion - Expanding the middle-income group is essential for achieving higher levels of common prosperity and modernization, necessitating coordinated improvements in initial, secondary, and tertiary income distribution [10][12] - The labor market must address structural unemployment, particularly among the elderly and youth, through targeted training and support [10][11] Role of Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to exacerbate structural employment issues but can also enhance labor productivity, providing solutions to these challenges [15][16] - A systematic governance framework is needed to align AI development with employment priorities, ensuring that AI not only replaces jobs but also enhances worker capabilities [15][16] Urban-Rural Integration and Household Registration Reform - The reform of the household registration system is critical for urbanization, with the potential to convert over 200 million rural residents into urban citizens, thereby stabilizing labor supply and enhancing economic growth [18][19] - The focus should be on improving public services in smaller cities and rural areas to attract and retain residents [19] Agricultural Modernization - China's agricultural labor force still has significant potential for transfer to higher productivity sectors, with current agricultural labor accounting for 22% of the workforce [22][23] - Modern agriculture is characterized by high labor productivity, large operational scales, and the application of advanced technologies, including AI, to enhance efficiency and output [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of income distribution structure in relation to consumption promotion and economic growth, suggesting that improving the redistribution mechanism can stimulate internal consumption and drive economic growth [1][2]. Economic Growth and Income Distribution - The relationship between macro income distribution structure and economic growth is a long-standing research theme, where the distribution of income among enterprises, government, and households influences consumption and investment, thereby affecting economic growth [4]. - A reasonable income structure that covers different income levels can create a diversified consumer market, promoting economic optimization and upgrading [4]. Current State of Income Distribution in China - China's household disposable income as a percentage of GDP is significantly lower than that of major economies, with 60.8% in 2022 compared to Japan (70.3%), Germany (69.5%), and the US (84.9%) [5][6]. - The proportion of disposable income has been persistently lower than the initial distribution since 2000, indicating an unreasonable redistribution mechanism [7]. Policy Recommendations - Policies should focus on increasing transfer payments to households, optimizing government spending structure, and enhancing tax reforms to stimulate consumption [3][11]. - Short-term transfer payments are essential for boosting consumption demand, especially in underdeveloped regions [9][10]. - Long-term improvements in the transfer payment system are necessary to address regional economic imbalances and enhance disposable income [12]. Consumption Structure and Government Spending - The article advocates for increasing government spending in the livelihood sector to shift economic demand towards consumption, particularly in services [16][17]. - The current fiscal expenditure structure favors construction over services, necessitating a reallocation to enhance market supply and related investments [17][18]. Tax Reforms and Pension System - Tax reforms should address structural contradictions in the economy and enhance consumer capacity, including raising the personal income tax threshold and lowering rates for middle and low-income groups [19][11]. - Increasing tax incentives for personal pension accounts can improve the overall pension replacement rate, thereby enhancing current consumption tendencies [20]. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - There is significant room for increasing government debt and deficit levels, with a current debt ratio of 65.7%, allowing for potential fiscal expansion to support consumption [22][23]. - The article suggests that issuing special government bonds can help bridge funding gaps while balancing consumption and investment needs [25][26].