随着日本央行最新加息举措未能提振汇率，华尔街对日元的看空情绪再度升温，市场正逐渐形成日元将长期疲软的共识。包括摩根大通和BNP Paribas SA在内的主要机构策略师预测，受美日利差高企及负实际利率推动，日元兑美元汇率在2026年底前将跌破160关口，甚至进一步走低。 华尔街对日元前景的悲观预测源于对日本经济基本面的担忧。摩根大通首席日本外汇策略师Junya Tanase持有华尔街最为看空的观点，预测2026 年底日元将跌至164。他指出，日元的基本面相当脆弱，且这一状况在进入明年后不会有太大改变。周期性力量可能转为对日元更为不利，随着市 场定价其他地区更高的利率，日本央行紧缩政策的影响力将受到限制。 BNP Paribas新兴亚洲外汇及利率策略师Parisha Saimbi同样预计日元将在2026年底触及160。她分析称，明年的全球宏观环境对风险情绪相对有 利，这种环境通常利好套利交易策略。鉴于套利需求的韧性、日本央行的谨慎态度以及美联储可能超出预期的鹰派立场，美元兑日元汇率恐将维 持高位。 今年日元兑美元仅录得不足1%的微幅涨幅，结束此前连续四年的下跌走势，但市场原本寄望的日本央行加息与美联储降息组合并 ...

日本央行近期的加息举措未能推动日元汇率实现持续走高，市场对日元的看空论调愈发高涨，各界也愈 发认同这一观点：日元的结构性弱势局面，不存在快速扭转的良方。 摩根大通、法国巴黎银行等机构的策略分析师认为，受美日利差依旧悬殊、日本实际利率为负、资本持 续外流三大因素影响，到 2026 年底，日元兑美元汇率或将贬值至 160 关口甚至更低。分析师们表示， 只要日本央行始终采取渐进式紧缩货币政策，且财政政策引发的通胀风险持续存在，日元的贬值趋势就 大概率会延续。 ▫️安飞士共享租车撤出伦敦市场，共享出行支持者寻觅新出路▫️回望 2025，美国交通领域亦斩获多项积极 成果▫️伦敦民众偏爱燃木取暖炉，引燃空气污染相关争议 法国巴黎银行亚太新兴市场外汇与利率策略师帕里莎・赛姆比预计，到 2026 年底美元兑日元将升至 160。她表示，2026 年全球宏观环境整体'相对利好市场风险情绪'，而这类市场环境通常会利好套息交 易策略。她补充道，市场对套息交易的需求依旧坚挺、日本央行的政策立场偏谨慎、美联储的加息立场 或比市场预期更鹰派，多重因素叠加，将支撑美元兑日元汇率维持高位。 日本持续的对外投资外流，是压制日元汇率的另一重要因素 ...

日本央行最新加息行动未能持续提振本币，令市场看跌日元的声音日益高涨，这进一步强化了市场对日 元结构性疲软问题无法快速解决的观点。 摩根大通、法国巴黎银行等机构的策略师认为，受美日利差依然较大、实际利率为负以及资本持续外流 等因素影响，日元兑美元汇率到2026年底将跌至160或更低。他们指出，只要日本央行仍旧只是渐进式 地收紧货币政策，且财政刺激引发的通胀风险持续存在，这种趋势就可能延续。 在连续四年告跌后，今年日元兑美元上涨不足1%，众所期盼的日本央行加息及美联储降息带来的提振 效果并不理想。4月时日元曾短暂升破140，但随后由于美国总统特朗普关税政策的不确定性以及日本政 局变化带来的财政风险而失去动能。目前日元汇率在156附近波动，距离年内低点158.87并不遥远。 责任编辑：刘明亮 日本央行最新加息行动未能持续提振本币，令市场看跌日元的声音日益高涨，这进一步强化了市场对日 元结构性疲软问题无法快速解决的观点。 摩根大通、法国巴黎银行等机构的策略师认为，受美日利差依然较大、实际利率为负以及资本持续外流 等因素影响，日元兑美元汇率到2026年底将跌至160或更低。他们指出，只要日本央行仍旧只是渐进式 地收紧货 ...

Core Insights - Emerging market carry trades are expected to remain effective through 2026, driven by low borrowing costs from central banks in developed economies and sustained interest rate differentials between developed and emerging markets [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Market Carry Trades - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index has achieved a year-to-date return of 16.71%, the highest since 2009, when it reached 19.89% [3]. - In the previous five years, four years recorded negative returns, with rates of -2.84%, -5.02%, -0.52%, and -3.17% for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2024 respectively [3]. - High benchmark interest rates in countries like Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa have resulted in three-month implied yields of 13.4%, 7.5%, and 6.6%, significantly outperforming developed economies [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is seen as a key factor for the continued strong performance of emerging market currencies, with expectations of a slowdown encouraging the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy [4]. - Investment firms like Invesco and Goldman Sachs recommend increasing short positions on the U.S. dollar against currencies such as the Brazilian real and South African rand [4]. - Neuberger Berman highlights that reduced volatility in the foreign exchange market and a weak dollar create favorable conditions for emerging market carry trades [5][6]. Group 3: Volatility Concerns - There is ongoing debate about whether low foreign exchange volatility can be maintained, as adverse currency movements could quickly erase gains [7]. - Current indicators from JPMorgan show emerging market currency volatility is near a five-year low, but concerns remain about potential increases due to factors like U.S. midterm elections and Federal Reserve policy divergences [7]. - Vanguard Group believes that market disruptions from events like Trump's tariff policies are diminishing, suggesting a stable environment for emerging market currencies in 2026 [7].

Group 1 - Emerging market carry trades are expected to continue thriving in 2026, supported by reduced forex market volatility and a weak US dollar [1] - A key indicator for this strategy has shown a return of approximately 17% this year, marking the highest increase since 2009 [1] - Major asset management firms and banks anticipate that the interest rate gap between developed and emerging markets will persist, with the Federal Reserve and other wealthy nations' central banks likely to maintain low borrowing costs [1] Group 2 - Emerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies have seen significant increases this year, with countries like Brazil and Colombia experiencing currency appreciation of over 13% against the US dollar [3] - The performance of these markets is closely tied to the US economic outlook, with investors hoping for weak growth to encourage further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [3] - Goldman Sachs has highlighted the attractiveness of shorting the US dollar against currencies like the Brazilian real and South African rand, with a basket of these trades yielding approximately 20% returns this year [3] Group 3 - Investors are assessing whether forex volatility will remain low, as adverse currency movements can quickly erase months of gains [6] - Current market expectations for volatility are low, with a JPMorgan indicator nearing a five-year low, raising concerns among market participants [6] - Despite potential factors that could increase currency volatility, such as US midterm elections and central bank policy divergences, Vanguard Group expects that market disruptions will remain controlled into 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Turkey's Finance Minister, Mehmet Simsek, indicates that the Turkish lira is expected to gradually escape depreciation pressure due to a significant reduction in the current account deficit, recovery of international financing channels, and continuous improvement in macroeconomic indicators [1] Economic Indicators - In August 2023, Turkey achieved a current account surplus of $5.5 billion, with the annualized deficit decreasing to $18.3 billion, reducing the GDP ratio from 5.29% at the beginning of 2023 to 1.3% by the second quarter of 2025 [1] - Since the launch of economic reforms in September 2023, the five-year credit default swap for government bonds has decreased by approximately 460 basis points, allowing businesses and the treasury to secure lower financing costs in international markets [1] Debt and Fiscal Management - Turkey's total debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 89%, which is significantly lower than the average of 242% for developing economies and 320% globally [1] - The government aims to improve the budget deficit by combating the gray economy and enhancing tax collection, with the deficit ratio expected to decrease to 3.1% by the end of this year [1] Future Plans - By 2026, Turkey plans to enter a new phase of structural transformation, accelerating railway infrastructure projects connecting industrial zones to ports, and deepening regional economic cooperation through free trade agreements and transport corridors [1] - Strategic priorities will include green energy, renewable resources, and local oil and gas development [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - JPMorgan Private Bank predicts gold prices could reach $5200-$5300 by the end of 2026, driven by continued purchases from central banks in emerging markets, representing an increase of over 25% from current levels [1] - Gold prices have surged over 50% this year, reaching a historical high of over $4380 in October, primarily due to central banks seeking value storage and asset diversification [1] - Singapore's OCBC Bank suggests that the end of the U.S. government shutdown could benefit gold, as delayed economic data may indicate a slowing economy, potentially leading to a more accommodative monetary policy from the Fed [5] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown and Economic Impact - TD Securities anticipates the U.S. House will vote on a temporary funding bill, likely leading to the government reopening by Friday, which could result in a quick economic rebound post-shutdown [2] - Standard Chartered notes that the end of the government shutdown may challenge the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, as weak economic data could highlight negative impacts on the economy [3] - UBS forecasts that the Fed's potential rate cuts could lead to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 3.50% [7] Group 3: Currency and Economic Forecasts - Rabobank's Jane Foley indicates that if delayed U.S. economic data is positive, the dollar may strengthen, improving perceptions of the U.S. economy [4] - Standard Chartered's Steve Englander reports that the dollar is returning to its historical normal relationship after a year of deviation, suggesting a positive outlook for the currency [3] Group 4: Chinese Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities projects China's GDP growth to be around 5.0% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026, with fiscal spending expected to moderately expand [7] - The firm emphasizes a significant trend of household savings being converted into investments, indicating a potential increase in equity asset allocation [6] Group 5: Automotive Industry Trends - CITIC Jiantou outlines investment strategies for the automotive sector in 2026, focusing on cyclical growth, technological advancements in autonomous driving, and robotics [8] - The report suggests that the automotive industry will see a shift towards overseas expansion and growth, with commercial vehicles showing stable dividend attributes [8]

Group 1 - The Turkish lira has depreciated significantly, reaching a record low of 41.95 lira per dollar, with a cumulative decline of 16% this year and a continuous drop for 15 weeks [1] - The Turkish central bank has been pressured to lower interest rates despite high inflation, with rates cut by 300 and 250 basis points in July and September, respectively [3] - The inflation rate in Turkey is reported at 33%, but seasonally adjusted data indicates a concerning annualized rate of 38% [3] Group 2 - The depreciation of the lira has severely impacted the cost of living for ordinary citizens, with significant price increases in essential goods such as chicken, eggs, and hazelnuts [5] - Experts indicate that the Turkish population is facing a situation where income is not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to a decrease in real purchasing power [6] - Even a potential 20% wage increase by year-end may not compensate for the actual income losses experienced by residents [6]

Core Insights - The Brazilian real has appreciated by 16.18% against the US dollar year-to-date as of September 17, making it the fifth strongest currency globally [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar is attributed to investor skepticism regarding President Trump's economic policies [1] - Among 33 global currencies, only four have depreciated, with the Russian ruble, Hungarian forint, and Swedish krona leading in appreciation [1] Currency Performance - The Brazilian real's nominal appreciation of 16.18% ranks fifth globally [1] - The top three appreciating currencies are: - Russian ruble (+36.6%) - Hungarian forint (+19.96%) - Swedish krona (+18.29%) [1] - The currencies with the largest depreciation include: - Argentine peso (-30.05%) - Turkish lira (-14.45%) - Indian rupee (-2.98%) [1]

Group 1 - Erdogan has successfully suppressed opposition and resolved the PKK issue, marking a significant political achievement for his nationalist and Islamist agenda [1][4][12] - Turkey is seen as an ideal diplomatic venue for international negotiations, enhancing its geopolitical influence in regions like the Caucasus and Syria [2][19] - The Turkish economy faces structural issues, including high deficits, unemployment, and low labor participation, despite temporary stabilization efforts post-2023 elections [4][22][43] Group 2 - Erdogan's political future is uncertain, with challenges in modifying the constitution to extend his presidency and declining public support [5][51][53] - The PKK's disarmament in May 2025 is a significant domestic political victory for Erdogan, potentially aiding his coalition's efforts to secure the necessary parliamentary votes for constitutional amendments [12][14][15] - Erdogan's foreign policy strategy, characterized by "strategic ambiguity," allows Turkey to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes and expand its influence [16][18][19] Group 3 - The economic policies under Erdogan, particularly the "Erdoganomics" approach, have led to soaring inflation rates, peaking at 85.5% in November 2022, and significant currency depreciation [25][28][33] - The recent shift back to orthodox economic policies, including a substantial interest rate hike from 8.5% to 50%, aims to stabilize the Turkish lira and attract foreign investment [33][34] - Turkey's reliance on short-term external financing to address its ongoing current account deficit poses significant vulnerabilities to economic stability [43][44][46] Group 4 - The geopolitical landscape presents both opportunities and risks for Turkey, with ongoing regional conflicts and the potential for increased Russian influence post-Ukraine war [47][49][50] - Erdogan's lack of a clear political successor raises concerns about the future stability of his administration and Turkey's geopolitical position [54][55][56] - The interplay between Turkey's economic challenges and geopolitical ambitions will determine its future trajectory, as Erdogan's leadership faces increasing scrutiny [56][57]