来源：六里投资报 1月12日，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强，在闭门策略会中分享了对2026年开年CPI、PPI改善， 香港楼市量价齐升对内地房地产政策的借鉴，以及人民币汇率的最新观点。 邢自强认为，可能到2026年一季度，人民币对美元有望触及6.85， 甚至根据一些技术细节的判断，也可能短期触到6.8左右。 但他也提醒说，这背后也有一些短期季节性因素， 如大量出口企业，通常会在春节前后进行结算换汇等，后面可能会退坡， 对于2026年的均价目标，依然认为大体上可能还处于温和稳健的状态，年末大致会在对美元7左右。 而最近几个月CPI和PPI的好转，难言可持续， 属于一种比较典型的、没有太多内需支撑的抬头，不是一个真实的打破通缩、再通胀的信号。 2026年，中国经济非常有可能还是处于打破通缩的艰难探索当中， 在内需相对疲软、物价低迷的循环，还没有完全打破之际， 货币当局一定会借鉴日本1991年-1995年的教训，不见得会让人民币显著地大幅升值。 此外，邢自强提及香港楼市因政策放宽与利率下行，实现了量价齐升， 开年头两周的开门红，给2026年的市场奠定了一个积极的色彩基调。 而且，预期2026年香港的住宅价格还会 ...

A股 - China Ping An reported a revenue of 500.76 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, with a net profit of 68.05 billion yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year [2] - China Life achieved total premiums of 525.09 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a net profit of 40.93 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year [2] - Meituan's Q2 revenue reached 91.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.7%, but adjusted net profit fell by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2] 蓝思科技 - Lens Technology reported a revenue of 32.96 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.18%, with a net profit of 1.19 billion yuan, up 35.53% [3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 526 million yuan [3] 资金流向 - EPFR reported a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan in foreign capital from August 14 to August 20, with passive allocation foreign capital contributing 6.84 billion yuan and active allocation foreign capital contributing 140 million yuan [3] 理财 - China's fixed asset investment in transportation reached 1.95 trillion yuan from January to July, with July alone accounting for 306.1 billion yuan [4] - The Ministry of Finance announced a halving of the securities transaction stamp duty starting August 28, 2023, which is expected to reduce the burden on investors by over 250 billion yuan over two years [4] - By August 26, 2023, the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds reached 996 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 76.6% [4] - The total net asset value of public funds in China surpassed 35 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 35.08 trillion yuan by the end of July 2023 [4] ETF - The total scale of ETFs in China exceeded 5 trillion yuan for the first time, with the number of products exceeding 100 that have over 10 billion yuan in assets [5] 货币政策 - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 288.4 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 21.9 billion yuan after offsetting maturing reverse repos [5] - The central bank also conducted a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 300 billion yuan for August, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [5] 其他 - In July, the revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises in China grew by 0.9% year-on-year, while profits decreased by 1.5%, with manufacturing profits increasing by 6.8% [6] - The National Energy Administration reported that by the end of July, the total installed power generation capacity reached 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.2% [6] - Chengdu plans to hold over 30 large-scale consumer promotion activities in its core business districts by 2025, aiming to attract 30 new flagship brand stores [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 27, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose, and commodity futures generally declined, with polysilicon, coking coal, crude oil, and coke leading the drop [10][12] - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption in September [34][35] - From January to July, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide decreased by 1.7% year-on-year [34][35] - In the first seven months of this year, Hong Kong's IPO fundraising surged by over 610% year-on-year to HK$128 billion [36] - From August 14 to 20, allocative foreign capital turned to a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan, indicating an improvement in the attractiveness of RMB assets [36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On August 27, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; commodity futures generally declined, with polysilicon, coking coal, crude oil, and coke leading the decline [10][12] - The top three gainers were apple (up 1.5% with a 23.5% month-on-month increase in open interest), nickel (up 1.2% with a 9.5% month-on-month decrease in open interest), and tin (up 0.8% with a 73.8% month-on-month increase in open interest) [10][12] - The top three decliners were polysilicon (down 4.9% with a 12.4% month-on-month increase in open interest), coking coal (down 3.9% with a 1.0% month-on-month increase in open interest), and crude oil (down 3.6% with a 6.5% month-on-month increase in open interest) [11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Tin - On August 27, tin increased by 0.8% to 271,790 yuan/ton. Under the current tightened mining supply, tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and their volatility may rise [16][20] - The domestic mining end remains tight, and the official resumption of production in Wa State does not change the tight situation. In Indonesia, refined tin exports declined in July, and African tin ore production and export are unstable [17][20] - Smelters face a shortage of raw materials, with low processing fees and a low smelting operating rate. Tin terminal demand has weakened, and inventory destocking is difficult [18][19][20] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Crude Oil - On August 27, crude oil decreased by 3.6% to 479.7 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short-term disturbances from the Russia-Ukraine issue [23][25] - API data shows a small inventory draw in the US. OPEC+ is accelerating supply release, US production is high, and non-US and non-OPEC+ output is growing steadily, leading to persistent supply pressure [24][25] - The high operating rates of Chinese and US refineries may decline due to the accumulation of refined oil inventories, and oil price rebounds remain weak [24][25] 3.1.3.2 Coking Coal - On August 27, coking coal decreased by 3.9% to 1,154 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions persist, and it is difficult to increase supply before the military parade. The market still has support due to the eighth round of coke price increases [28][31][32] - Futures market sentiment has declined, and the market has pulled back. Some coal mines have resumed production, but output is still restricted. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 trucks [29][32] - The eighth round of coke price increases has started, with regional differentiation. Coking production is restricted in some areas, and short-term rigid demand for coking coal has declined slightly. Downstream enterprises are purchasing on demand, and some coal mines have seen inventory accumulation [30][32] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption in September, aiming to optimize service supply and stimulate new growth in service consumption [34][35] - From January to July, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide were 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profits of these enterprises decreased by 1.5% year-on-year [34][35] 3.2.2 Industry News - In the first seven months of this year, there were 51 IPOs in Hong Kong, and the fundraising amount surged by over 610% year-on-year to HK$128 billion. As of the end of July, over 220 IPO applications were under review [36] - From August 14 to 20, allocative foreign capital turned to a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan, with passive allocative foreign capital having a net inflow of 6.84 billion yuan and active allocative foreign capital having a net inflow of 140 million yuan, indicating an improvement in the attractiveness of RMB assets [36]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on August 27, with the MSCI China A50 Connect Index experiencing a slight decline of approximately 0.1%, while leading stocks such as Cambricon Technologies, Industrial Fulian, and Mindray Medical led the gains [1] - According to EPFR, from August 14 to August 20, foreign capital shifted to a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan, with passive foreign capital inflow at 6.84 billion yuan and active foreign capital inflow at 140 million yuan. This marks the first net inflow for active foreign capital since mid-October 2024, indicating foreign investors' confidence in A-share investment opportunities [1] - The MSCI China A50 Connect Index has a high similarity in holding distribution with northbound capital. The constituent stocks are distributed across industries such as electronics, banking, food and beverage, non-bank financials, and power equipment [1] Group 2 - The top ten constituent stocks of the MSCI China A50 Connect Index include CATL, Zijin Mining, Industrial Fulian, Kweichow Moutai, Cambricon Technologies, Haiguang Information, BYD, Heng Rui Medicine, China Merchants Bank, and Luxshare Precision [1] - The A50 ETF (159601) closely tracks the MSCI China A50 Connect Index, providing a packaged investment in 50 leading connect stocks, offering balanced coverage of core leading assets in the A-share market. It is favored by both domestic and foreign investors [1] - Compared to other "beautiful 50" indices, the MSCI China A50 Connect Index emphasizes liquidity and industry balance during its compilation, showcasing significant large-cap characteristics [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a bull market trend is being established, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3700-point mark, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [1][2]. - Similarities to the 2015 market include policy support and increased investor confidence, as the central government emphasizes stabilizing the real estate and stock markets [2][3]. - There is a significant accumulation of household savings, similar to 2014, leading to a search for better investment channels to enhance returns [2][3]. Group 2 - Continuous net inflow of foreign capital is contributing to the market's upward momentum [3]. - Differences from 2015 include a more controlled approach to leverage, avoiding the "crazy bull" market seen previously, which led to significant bubbles [3][4]. - The current bull market is characterized as healthier, promoting wealth accumulation rather than speculative behavior [4].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.46% and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.96%, indicating a positive market trend with over 4,100 stocks rising across the market [1] Industry Performance - The leading sectors in terms of growth included Electric Power Equipment (2.04%), Communication (1.95%), and Computer (1.94%), while the sectors with the largest declines were Banking (-1.01%), Oil & Petrochemicals (-0.41%), and Coal (-0.35%) [2] - The rise in Electric Power Equipment is attributed to the surge in lithium carbonate futures and increased demand for energy storage cells, while the Communication sector benefits from accelerated infrastructure development as per the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The Banking sector faced outflows as liquidity expectations shifted towards growth stocks due to increasing speculation on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, while the Oil & Petrochemical sector struggled with declining WTI crude prices and supply-demand imbalances [3] Future Outlook - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a fluctuating upward trend, supported by ongoing policy measures favoring the capital market, gradual implementation of real estate and consumption-related policies, and a stable appreciation of the RMB against the USD [4]