高盛周四发布报告称，预计到2026年12月，金价将在基本假设下上涨14%至每盎司4900美元，并指出由 于私人投资者多元化配置可能扩大，金价存在上行风险。 因市场开始预期再平衡，高盛预计油价将在2026年中旬左右触及低点。报告指出，这将由约每日120万 桶的坚实需求增长、乌克兰战争及制裁持续下俄罗斯供应进一步下降，以及非OPEC(除俄罗斯外)产量 增速放缓所驱动。"我们认为2026-2027年油价展望存在下行风险，"高盛表示。 然而，高盛称，因市场开始计价2027年下半年将重返供应短缺，并转向关注激励长周期生产，其假设油 价将在明年第四季度回升。报告补充称，预计到2028年末，布伦特和WTI油价将分别逐步回升至每桶80 美元和76美元。 对于天然气，高盛预测2026年所有权转让设施价格为每兆瓦时29欧元，2027年为20欧元以激励额外需 求;同时预计2026和2027年美国天然气价格将分别维持在每百万英热单位4.60美元和3.80美元，以刺激美 国天然气产量增长。 高盛表示，预计美国电力备用容量将进一步下降，因电力需求快速增长和燃煤电厂退役超过可再生能源 和天然气发电装机增量。"因此，美国电力市场面临价格显著 ...

全球AI竞赛正加速"铜与电"资源的结构性短缺，尤其在美国，电力市场紧张和铜供应受限或将成为制约AI产业发展的关键瓶颈。 据追风交易台，高盛Daan Struyven分析师团队在最新大宗商品2026年展望报告中警告，美国AI数据中心的爆炸式增长正推动电力需求激增，美国 电力市场面临进一步紧张，存在价格大幅上涨甚至停电的风险，这可能成为拖累美国在AI竞赛中进展的关键瓶颈。 报告指出，AI驱动的数据中心繁荣已将美国年化电力需求增长推至近3%，超过GDP增长率。高盛估算，大部分美国区域电力市场的备用发电容量 已处于或低于关键水平。这种紧张局势已在去年夏季引发实时电价飙升，并推高了包括弗吉尼亚州在内的PJM电力市场的发电容量价格——而弗 吉尼亚州正是全球数据中心之都。 高盛预计，2026年美国电力市场将进一步收紧，电价波动加剧，部分地区甚至可能出现电力供应中断，影响数据中心运营和AI算力扩展。铜价则 受益于全球电气化和AI基础设施建设，尽管短期内价格或有调整，但长期看涨逻辑依然坚实。 美国电力市场告急，AI进展或受阻 高盛报告指出，铜是电气化和AI基础设施不可或缺的原材料，约半数全球铜需求来自电力相关领域，包括数据中心 ...

Group 1 - The silver market is currently in a state of "over-excitement," with prices overvalued by approximately 15% according to Marex Group's global market analysis head Guy Wolf [1] - A consolidation or even a pullback in silver prices is considered healthy for the market [1] - Concerns over fiscal debt and fiat currency issues have led private wealth management firms to seek alternative investments, benefiting precious metals as funds look for safe havens [1] Group 2 - Central banks are expected to continue buying gold over the next 10 to 20 years, supporting further increases in gold prices, with no signs of a halt in the gold bull market [1] - New demand areas include stablecoin issuers like Tether Holdings SA, which are converting some U.S. Treasury assets into gold [1] - The copper market is anticipated to face "very severe volatility" in 2026, with risks arising from a potential influx of copper into the U.S. before the imposition of import tariffs [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals Outlook - The report from OCBC predicts that precious metals, particularly gold and silver, will continue to rise due to structural demand changes and supportive macroeconomic conditions, with gold expected to reach a target price of $4,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1][2] - Gold prices have surged by 60% year-to-date, while silver has seen a remarkable increase of 100%, leading the commodity market [2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainties [2] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver is expected to outperform gold due to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, with strong demand from the photovoltaic, electric vehicle, and electronics sectors [2] - The forecast for silver prices suggests they could reach $64.86 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by tight supply and inflows into ETFs [2] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - OCBC holds a cautious outlook on the energy market, predicting average prices for WTI and Brent crude oil to decline to $59 and $62 per barrel, respectively, in 2026 [3] - The oil market is currently facing a supply surplus, with OECD commercial crude oil inventories expected to exceed 3.1 billion barrels by July 2026 [3] - Factors contributing to the supply increase include OPEC+'s gradual removal of voluntary production cuts and strong output growth from non-OPEC+ countries, while global oil demand growth remains steady but insufficient to absorb new production [3] Group 4: Palm Oil Market Trends - The report anticipates a moderate price correction for crude palm oil (CPO), with an average price forecast of 4,200 Malaysian Ringgit per ton in 2026, slightly lower than the 2025 estimate [4] - The easing of global vegetable oil market tensions is attributed to recovering production in Indonesia, despite plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio, which will provide some demand support [4]