| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2 月 24 日，节后首日，大宗商品集体开门红，植物油板块跳空高开高走。 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8140 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 1.07%，日增仓 | | | | | 5115 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8070 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 1.08%，日减 | | | | | 仓 956 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8824 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 1.45%，日减 | | | | | 仓 314 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 8814 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 1.36%，日减仓 | | | | | 2204 手； | | | | | 菜籽油次主力合约 OI2605 合约报收于 9200 元/吨，按收盘价日环上涨 1.79%，日增 | | | | | 仓 14141 手。 | | | | | 菜籽油主力合约 OI2609 合约报收于 9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the edible oil sector, due to the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, external macro - risks are uncontrollable, so it is advisable to conservatively observe the market and engage in intraday trading. For the two - meal sector, although the rise in US soybeans drives cost increases and domestic import policies tighten, it is not recommended to chase the upward trend significantly, and existing long positions should be gradually reduced [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock (Three Oils) 3.1.1 Market Review - On February 12th, before the Spring Festival holiday, the exchange raised margins, more investors left the market, and the weakening of the Malaysian market dragged down the market. The Dalian palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of various oil contracts decreased to varying degrees, and the trading volume also changed [1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On February 12th, the settlement price of the active March crude oil futures contract on NYMEX was $62.84 per barrel, down $1.79 or 2.77%. US crude inventories increased by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week. The IEA stated that this year's global oil demand growth rate will be lower than expected [1]. - The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1]. - The US government is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to impose penalties on imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons [1]. - The January supply - demand report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) was generally positive. Malaysia's palm oil imports, production, and inventory decreased, while exports increased [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the EIA's downward adjustment of global crude oil demand led to a 3% drop in international crude oil prices. However, multiple positive factors such as the US - India trade agreement, potential increases in US soybean and soybean oil exports to India, and the improvement of domestic biodiesel policies in the US supported the US soybean oil to maintain a good upward trend. The Malaysian palm oil market was generally positive, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market was cautious and the overall trend was flat. For domestic soybean oil, factory production was high in the recent two weeks, and the reduction in inventory was limited. The spot market was basically over before the festival, and the basis quote was mainly stable. After the festival, the basis quote would be supported during the replenishment period but would face pressure later. For palm oil, the fundamentals were positive, but the expected high inventory put pressure on the market. For rapeseed oil, there was a lack of new topics in the market, and it was expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern before the festival [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is advisable to conservatively observe the market and engage in intraday trading before the Spring Festival. The report provides support and pressure levels for various contracts [2]. - Arbitrage trading: None at present [2]. 3.2 Two Meals (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On February 12th, driven by the rise in the external market, short basis and long futures positions, the two - meal market continued to rebound. The closing prices of various contracts increased to varying degrees, and the trading volume also changed [2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The February USDA soybean supply - demand report was generally bearish, slightly increasing Brazil's production and global soybean inventory. However, the increase in US soybean exports pushed up the US soybean futures price. The report also provided data on the US, Brazil, and Argentina's soybean production, exports, and inventory [3]. - As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, domestic import soybean inventory decreased, while domestic soybean meal inventory and contract volume increased. Domestic imported rapeseed inventory decreased, and imported rapeseed meal inventory and contract volume increased [3]. - The national grain trading center's soybean auction on January 13th had a 100% transaction rate [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the improved trade prospects of US soybeans pushed up the US soybean futures price. For domestic soybean meal, as the Spring Festival approached, some institutions adjusted their positions for risk - avoidance reasons. The market showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and there was a short - term rebound. The spot price of the oil refinery increased slightly, and the market was light. For rapeseed meal, domestic oil refineries were actively buying rapeseed in the far - month. Considering the expected increase in imports and the end of pre - festival stocking, the domestic two - meal market was expected to have a weak and narrow - range shock pattern before the festival and was likely to face downward pressure after the festival [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - It is not recommended to chase the upward trend significantly, and existing long positions should be gradually reduced. The report provides support and pressure levels for various contracts. Arbitrage trading: None at present [4].

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 11 日星期周三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 【重要资讯】 | 1、美国农业部豆类 2 月供需报告整体利空，小幅上调巴西产量和全球大豆库存，但是由于 | | --- | --- | | 期 | 42.62 亿蒲，1 月预期为 42.62 亿蒲式耳；美国 2025/2026 年度压榨量 25.7 亿蒲，1 月预 | | | 美豆出口增加 800 万吨，推升美豆期价保持强劲上升态势。美国 2025/2026 年度大豆产量预 | | 期 | 25.7 亿蒲式耳；美国 2025/26 年度期末库存预期 3.5 亿蒲，市场分析师预期 3.47 亿蒲， | | 1 | 月预期 3.5 亿蒲。美国 2025/2026 年度大豆单产预期为 53 蒲式耳/英亩，1 月 53 蒲式耳/ | | | 英亩。2025/2026 年度美豆出口量预期 15.75 亿蒲，1 月预期 15.75 亿蒲；美豆数据未作调 | | 整。 | | | 2、巴西 | 2025/26 年度大豆产量为 1.8 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 阿根廷产区预计将迎来有利降雨，可能缓解部分旱情。巴西大豆收割进度显著快于 | | | | 去年同期，新作供应正逐步涌入市场。周五美豆冲高回落。国内市场，若真的新增 | | 豆粕 | | 美豆采购订单，将继续通过拍卖来投入市场，但面对更具性价比的南美大豆集中到 | | | 短期震荡 | | | ★ | | 港，若想有效投放储备，低价拍卖无疑是最有效的方法。国内大豆供应充足的预期 | | | | 下，豆粕期现价格承压。昨日豆粕回落。关注阿根廷大豆 2 月降雨情况。若降雨恢 | | | | 复，则豆粕看多需谨慎，暂观望为宜。 | | | | 首批澳籽进入压榨，沿海油厂菜粕库存打破之前零状态，此外，加籽的持续采购， | | 菜粕 | 短期震荡 | 令国内菜籽及菜粕供应形势预期好转。消费淡季下，菜粕缺乏利多推动。昨日菜粕 | | ★ | | 跟随豆粕收跌。关注后续加籽采购进展情况，关注中加、美加贸易进展。 | | | 2 | 月前 5 日马棕榈油产量环比增加，偏利空。国内方面，2 月天量的棕榈油进口数量， | | 棕榈油 | ...

| | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2 月 6 日，大宗商品市场走势整体偏弱，植物油板块弱势振荡为主。 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8102 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.02%，日减仓 | | | | | 14549 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8054 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.10%，日增 | | | | | 仓 1551 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9026 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.18%，日减 | | | | | 仓 11261 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 8998 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.18%，日减仓 | | | | | 2111 手； | | | | | 菜籽油次主力合约 OI2605 合约报收于 9144 元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 6 日星期周五 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2 月 5 日，有色板块再度大跌，文华指数走弱，植物油板块转跌，但是跌势不大。 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8104 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.44%，日减仓 | | | | | 12674 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8046 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.35%，日增 | | | | | 仓 9525 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9042 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.05%，日减 | | | | | 仓 13432 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 901 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, the US biodiesel policy boosts global vegetable oil prices. Palm oil and soybean oil stop falling and rebound, while rapeseed oil bottoms out and stabilizes. With the US interest - rate cut, the financial attributes of vegetable oils are enhanced, and it is advisable to adopt a long - term bullish strategy of buying on dips for soybean and palm oils, and hold short - term long positions for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength [2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the near - month contracts should be treated with a rebound mindset, and the opportunity to lay out new short positions for the 09 contracts should be awaited after the rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Vegetable Oils Market Performance - On January 22, vegetable oils continued their strong trend with a large inflow of funds. Palm oil led the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased compared to the previous day, with corresponding increases in positions [1]. Important Information - On January 21, NYMEX crude oil futures rose due to supply concerns, with the more active March contract up $0.26 or 0.4% to $60.62 per barrel [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas in early March, and the EPA is considering setting biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1]. - Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1]. - Indian buyers locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - From January 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, while exports increased by 11.4% [1]. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters from 2025 [1]. - As of the 3rd weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 38,300 tons week - on - week, a 1.79% decrease [2]. Market Logic - Externally, the US biodiesel policy makes US soybean oil oscillate strongly. In Malaysia, good export data and concerns about supply boost palm oil prices. Domestically, soybean oil news is mixed, palm oil benefits from the US biodiesel policy and improved export data, and rapeseed oil follows related oils in a wide - range oscillation [2]. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, continue to hold existing long positions in soybean and palm oils, and slightly enter long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2]. - For arbitrage, exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [2]. Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Performance - On January 22, due to pre - festival stockpiling, soybean meal inventory decreased, and previous short positions left the market, resulting in a technical rebound. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all increased compared to the previous day, with corresponding changes in positions [2]. Important Information - Since the Sino - US trade truce in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the commitment ahead of schedule [3]. - In January 2026, Brazil's soybean export volume is estimated to be 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and a 238% increase from the same period last year [3]. - StoneX predicts that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate [3]. - As of January 16, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, faster than the same period in previous years [3]. - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the growth status was good [3]. - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean export volume will be 105 million tons, a 3% decrease from last year [3]. - As of the 3rd weekend of 2026, China's imported soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories also changed [3]. - The January 13 import soybean auction had a 100% transaction rate [3]. Market Logic - Externally, slow South American soybean harvests strengthen US soybean futures prices. Domestically, oil - mill prices rise with the market, and downstream buyers are active in stockpiling. The impact of Sino - Canadian trade relations on rapeseed meal supply and demand is limited in the short term. With short - position funds leaving the market, Zhengzhou rapeseed meal rebounds, but the overall bullish sentiment is cautious [4]. Trading Strategy - Operate the 05 contracts of double - meal with a rebound mindset, and wait for the opportunity to lay out short positions for the 09 contracts after the rebound. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [4]. - There is currently no arbitrage strategy [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The U.S. biodiesel policy is on the agenda, boosting global vegetable oil prices. Among the three major oils, palm oil and soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed oil has bottomed out and stabilized. Against the backdrop of U.S. interest rate cuts, with abundant global funds and strengthened inflation expectations, the financial attributes of vegetable oils will be further stimulated. It is advisable to maintain a long - term bullish mindset for soybean and palm oils and buy on dips, and pay attention to the rebound strength of rapeseed oil and hold short - term long positions. For double - meal products, the 05 contracts should be traded within a range with a bottom - oscillating mindset, and new short positions for the 09 contracts can be considered after a rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock - Three Oils 1. Market Review - On January 21, news that Indonesia revoked the licenses of 28 companies related to palm oil plantations led to concerns about palm oil supply. Palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil sector, followed by soybean oil, while rapeseed oil was the weakest. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes compared to the previous day, with some contracts increasing in price and positions, and some decreasing [1]. 2. Important Information - On January 21, NYMEX crude oil futures rose due to supply concerns. The more actively traded March crude oil futures contract rose $0.26 or 0.4%, settling at $60.62 per barrel. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The U.S. EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons, with final approval expected in Q1 2026. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9%. - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 were 435,882 tons, the same as the previous period. Exports to China decreased by 41,000 tons to 17,000 tons compared to the previous month. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, while the Non - PSO total allocation increased. The B50 road test started in December 2025 and is expected to last for 6 months. The mandatory addition of B50 is expected to start in the second half of 2026, later than the market's previous expectation. - As of the end of the 3rd week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1034 million tons, a weekly decrease of 38,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.10%. The inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes [1][2]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the U.S. biodiesel policy has pushed up the price of U.S. soybean oil, which shows a volatile and upward - trending pattern. In Malaysia, the good export data of palm oil in the first 15 days of January and the revocation of 28 palm plantation licenses in Indonesia have boosted the price of Malaysian palm oil futures. Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. Although customs have tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, the auction of old imported soybeans has been fully sold, and oil mills have sufficient soybeans for crushing, with the Spring Festival stocking still ongoing. For palm oil, the negative data from Southeast Asia has been digested, and the market is more focused on the U.S. biodiesel policy expectations, along with improved export data, which has led to a rise in palm oil prices. For rapeseed oil, the strong performance of related international oils has limited the downside, and with the market's acceptance of the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, the downside space of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil is limited, and it mainly follows a wide - range oscillating pattern [2]. 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Hold existing long positions in soybean and palm oils, and slightly increase long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil. - Arbitrage trading: Exit the previously focused strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [2]. B. Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 1. Market Review - On January 21, the inventory of soybean meal decreased, and the prices of the two - meal futures stabilized. Technically, they entered the oversold zone and rebounded. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different changes compared to the previous day, with all contracts increasing in positions [2]. 2. Important Information - Since the Sino - U.S. trade truce agreement in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling the commitment in advance. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has adjusted the global soybean outlook for the 2025/26 season, with increased production, increased crushing volume, decreased exports, and increased ending inventory. Brazil and the U.S. have increased production, while China's production has decreased. - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate. - As of January 16, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, faster than the previous week and the same period last year. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso state was 6.69%, also faster than the previous week and the same period in previous years. - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions. The sowing progress of second - season soybeans was 71.9%. - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons, a decrease from the previous forecast, and the crushing volume will reach 60 million tons, an increase from last year. - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a significant increase from the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons. - As of the end of the 3rd week of 2026, the inventory of imported soybeans in China decreased, the inventory of soybean meal decreased, and the inventory of imported rapeseed remained unchanged. The inventory and contract volume of imported crushed rapeseed meal remained at zero. - The auction of imported soybeans on January 13 was fully sold, with a high成交 rate and a certain成交 price. - As of January 21, the spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the basis prices also decreased. The crushing margins and soybean arrival costs are provided [2][3][4]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the slow progress of soybean harvesting in South America has led to a rise in U.S. soybean futures prices. The strong Brazilian soybean premium and active downstream pricing and pick - up have supported the spot market, but the loose supply - demand situation and high crushing margins have led foreign investors to increase short positions. Domestically, the fixed - price of oil mills has remained stable, and the near - month basis has slightly strengthened. It is expected that the spot price will remain firm before the Spring Festival. For rapeseed meal, the negative impact of import trade of Canadian rapeseed meal has been digested, and the price has rebounded technically. The spot price adjusts with the market [4]. 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: The 05 contracts of double - meal products should be traded within a range with a bottom - oscillating mindset, and new short positions for the 09 contracts can be considered after a rebound. Provide support and resistance levels for major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. - Arbitrage trading: No trading opportunities are recommended currently [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The US biofuel policy is on the agenda, boosting the global vegetable oil prices. Currently, it is difficult to operate in the oil market, and no trend direction has been formed. Given the strengthening of the bottom of soybean and palm oil, it is advisable to maintain a long - term bullish mindset of buying on dips. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the rebound strength and hold short - term long positions [2] - For double - meal futures, the 05 contract maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset for mid - line trading, and the 09 contract may gradually decline. Consider gradually laying out short positions for the 09 contract [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Vegetable Oil Market a. Market Review - On January 19, the commodity market cooled down. Rapeseed oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector, while palm oil and soybean oil showed resistance. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,996 yuan/ton, down 0.25% day - on - day, with an increase of 584 lots in positions [1] b. Important Information - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month from South America [1] c. Market Logic - Externally, the easing of the US - Iran situation pressured international crude oil prices, but the US biofuel policy boosted US soybean oil prices. The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan and Malaysia's reduction of export tariffs affected the palm oil market [2] - Domestically, for soybean oil, there were both positive and negative factors. For palm oil, the cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan led to inventory accumulation. For rapeseed oil, the short - selling funds entered the market, but then the price rebounded [2] d. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, new long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oil, and short - term long positions for rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2] - For arbitrage trading, exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] 2. Double - Meal Market a. Market Review - On January 19, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,727 yuan/ton, with no change in the closing price day - on - day, and a decrease of 24,449 lots in positions [2] b. Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully subscribed, with an average transaction price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton [2][3] - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, higher crushing volume, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 178 million tons [3] c. Market Logic - Externally, the Chinese tariff adjustment on Canadian rapeseed slightly dragged down the protein meal market, but the Brazilian discount remained firm. The main contract of domestic protein meal futures oscillated in the short term [4] - Domestically, the policy of reducing tariffs on Canadian rapeseed was a major negative factor. The spot market was supported by terminal inventory building before the Spring Festival [4] d. Trading Strategy - For the 05 contract of double - meal, maintain a bottom - oscillating mindset for mid - line trading and trade within the day. Gradually lay out short positions for the 09 contract. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [4] - No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, the U.S. biofuel policy has boosted global vegetable oil prices, but the operation difficulty has increased and no trend direction has formed yet. In the long - term, a bullish mindset of buying on dips is appropriate for soybean and palm oils, and short - term long positions can be held for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength [1][2]. - For the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, the overall weak pattern of Zhengzhou meal has not changed. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term, and short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contract [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On January 16, the U.S. biofuel policy offset the negative impact of Indonesia canceling B50, and the vegetable oil sector strengthened again. Rapeseed oil had the largest increase. For example, the closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract OI2605 was 9063 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.66% and a daily increase in positions of 10,800 lots [1]. Important Information - On January 16, NYMEX crude oil futures rose, but in the short - term, the trend is still dominated by geopolitical risks, and in the long - term, weak fundamentals will limit the upside space [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the U.S. EPA is considering setting the biodiesel usage in 2026 between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1]. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9% [1]. - From January 1 - 10 in Malaysia, palm oil exports increased by 29.2% compared with the same period in December, but exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons [1]. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared with 2025 [1][2]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 4.67% week - on - week, with different changes in the inventory of each oil type [2]. Market Logic - In the external market, the easing of the U.S. - Iran situation pressured international crude oil, but the U.S. biofuel quota approval boosted U.S. soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil was affected by multiple factors and finally recovered its decline [2]. - In the domestic market, for soybean oil, there are both positive and negative news, and the Spring Festival stocking is ongoing; for palm oil, the import profit has recovered and the inventory is increasing; for rapeseed oil, the short - selling funds entered the market but then exited due to the approaching of the bottom support [2]. Trading Strategy - For one - sided trading, new long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oils, and short - term long positions for rapeseed oil. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [2]. - For arbitrage, the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference should be exited [2]. Two - Meal Sector (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Review - On January 16, the "buy - oil sell - meal" strategy and the commodity market cooled down, and the two - meal prices oscillated downward. For example, the closing price of the soybean meal main contract M2605 was 2727 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.47% and a daily increase in positions of 4054 lots [2][3]. Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully successful, and most of them had a premium [3]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised the 2025/26 global soybean production forecast, and there were corresponding changes in other aspects such as crushing volume and ending inventory [3]. - StoneX predicted that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production might reach 178.9 million tons [3]. - As of January 9, the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, higher than the same period last year and the five - year average [3]. - As of December 30, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 82%, and the growth situation was good [3]. - ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 would be 3.73 million tons, a significant increase compared with the same period last year [3]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported soybean inventory increased, and the soybean meal inventory decreased [3]. - The auction of imported soybeans on January 13 was fully successful, with specific details such as base price, transaction price, and delivery date [3]. Market Logic - In the external market, the U.S. new - year biofuel use plan boosted U.S. soybeans. In the domestic market, multiple factors pressured the futures market, but the spot market was active, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [4]. Trading Strategy - For the two - meal 05 contract, maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset for medium - term trading and conduct intraday trading. Gradually arrange short positions for the 09 contract. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [4]. - For arbitrage, no strategy is provided currently [4].