Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - On February 24, after the holiday, commodities had a collective positive start. The vegetable oil sector gapped up and continued to rise, while the double - meal sector opened high and then declined, trading on the upcoming pressure of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest [1][3] - For the oil market, there are both long and short factors. The external market has positive factors, but the domestic market has a traditional demand off - season. The supply of different oils has different situations, and the overall rise of rapeseed oil is restricted [3] - For the double - meal market, the overall trend is weak. Due to sufficient pre - holiday stockpiling, large inventories, and the approaching pressure of a Brazilian bumper harvest, the double - meal is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the medium term [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories 1. Vegetable Oil Sector (Three Oils) a. Market Quotes - On February 24, the main contract Y2605 of soybean oil closed at 8140 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.07% and an increase of 5115 lots in positions; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 8070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.08% and a decrease of 956 lots in positions [1] - The main contract P2605 of palm oil closed at 8824 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.45% and a decrease of 314 lots in positions; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8814 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.36% and a decrease of 2204 lots in positions [1] - The main contract OI2605 of rapeseed oil closed at 9200 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.79% and an increase of 14141 lots in positions; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 9171 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.79% and an increase of 1834 lots in positions [1] b. Important Information - U.S. oil closed down 1% as Iran prepared to reach an agreement with the U.S. before the nuclear negotiations later this week [1] - The U.S. and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on U.S. industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the U.S. will reduce the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1] - The U.S. government is expected to finalize the biofuel blending ratio quota for 2026 in early March. The U.S. EPA is considering setting the biodiesel usage in 2026 between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - From February 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 863,358 tons, a decrease of 8.9% compared to the same period in January. Exports to China increased from 19,000 tons to 40,000 tons [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April - July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [1] - From February 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 22.24% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 23.82% and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.3% [1] - As of the end of the 7th week in 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9679 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.56% [1] c. Spot Market - As of February 24, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8580 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton; the basis was 440 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14 yuan/ton [3] - The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8930 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton; the basis was 106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 428.09 yuan/ton [3] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9980 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 210 yuan/ton; the basis was 780 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 48 yuan/ton [3] d. Market Logic - Externally, the U.S. - Iran dispute persists, international crude oil futures remain strong, and the U.S. soybean export outlook and domestic biodiesel policy are positive for U.S. soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil is boosted by international crude oil and U.S. soybean oil but is dragged down by poor domestic export data and the upcoming seasonal production recovery period [3] - Domestically, after the replenishment of traders, the traditional demand off - season arrives. If reserve soybeans are not auctioned, the soybean oil inventory will continue to decline; if a large amount of reserve soybeans are auctioned, the supply will be sufficient, and the basis will be under pressure. Palm oil follows the overseas vegetable oil trend, and the supply shortage of rapeseed oil is expected to ease [3] e. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, continue to hold existing long positions in oils, and buy a small amount of new long positions on pullbacks. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [3] 2. Double - Meal Sector a. Market Quotes - On February 24, the main contract M2605 of soybean meal closed at a certain price (not fully provided), with a daily decrease of 0.68% and an increase of 23,675 lots in positions; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2890 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.55% and an increase of 2703 lots in positions [3] - The main contract RM2605 of rapeseed meal closed at 2290 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.82% and an increase of 22,835 lots in positions; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2342 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.26% and a decrease of 2119 lots in positions [3] b. Important Information - The U.S. Department of Agriculture's February soybean supply - demand report was overall bearish. Brazil's production and global soybean inventory were slightly increased, but U.S. soybean exports increased by 8 million tons, pushing up U.S. soybean futures prices [3] - Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 180 million tons, and Argentina's is expected to be 48.5 million tons [4] - The global soybean inventory is 125.51 million tons, higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 are estimated to be 3.79 million tons, a 238% increase from the same period last year [4] - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvesting progress of Brazilian farmers in the 2025/2026 season was 30%, 9% higher than the previous week but behind the same period last year [4] - As of the end of the 8th week in 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.8012 million tons, an increase of 151,500 tons from last week; the domestic soybean meal inventory was 863,900 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from last week; the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 222,000 tons, an increase of 58,000 tons from last week [4] c. Spot Market - As of February 24, the spot price of soybean meal was 3155 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 8 yuan/ton; the basis was 3118 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 299 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19 yuan/ton [4] - The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2463 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 87 yuan/ton; the basis was 2505 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 130 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19 yuan/ton [4] d. Pressing Profit and Cost - The March futures pressing profit of U.S. soybeans was - 552 yuan/ton, and the spot pressing profit was - 218 yuan/ton; the March futures pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans was - 98 yuan/ton, and the spot pressing profit was 236 yuan/ton [4] - The arrival cost of U.S. Gulf soybeans in March at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 4119 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans was 3687 yuan/ton [4] e. Market Logic - Externally, the U.S. soybean trade outlook is improving, pushing up U.S. soybean futures prices. Domestically, for soybean meal, oil mills are gradually resuming production and digesting previous inventories, and the near - month basis is firm; for rapeseed meal, the terminal has rigid demand for replenishment, and the basis is adjusted within a narrow range. The overall protein sector is weak due to sufficient pre - holiday stockpiling, large inventories, and the approaching Brazilian bumper harvest pressure [4] f. Trading Strategy - Liquidate existing long positions in double - meal and enter a small amount of new short positions. The double - meal is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the medium term, and provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the edible oil sector, due to the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, external macro - risks are uncontrollable, so it is advisable to conservatively observe the market and engage in intraday trading. For the two - meal sector, although the rise in US soybeans drives cost increases and domestic import policies tighten, it is not recommended to chase the upward trend significantly, and existing long positions should be gradually reduced [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock (Three Oils) 3.1.1 Market Review - On February 12th, before the Spring Festival holiday, the exchange raised margins, more investors left the market, and the weakening of the Malaysian market dragged down the market. The Dalian palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of various oil contracts decreased to varying degrees, and the trading volume also changed [1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On February 12th, the settlement price of the active March crude oil futures contract on NYMEX was $62.84 per barrel, down $1.79 or 2.77%. US crude inventories increased by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week. The IEA stated that this year's global oil demand growth rate will be lower than expected [1]. - The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1]. - The US government is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to impose penalties on imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons [1]. - The January supply - demand report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) was generally positive. Malaysia's palm oil imports, production, and inventory decreased, while exports increased [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the EIA's downward adjustment of global crude oil demand led to a 3% drop in international crude oil prices. However, multiple positive factors such as the US - India trade agreement, potential increases in US soybean and soybean oil exports to India, and the improvement of domestic biodiesel policies in the US supported the US soybean oil to maintain a good upward trend. The Malaysian palm oil market was generally positive, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market was cautious and the overall trend was flat. For domestic soybean oil, factory production was high in the recent two weeks, and the reduction in inventory was limited. The spot market was basically over before the festival, and the basis quote was mainly stable. After the festival, the basis quote would be supported during the replenishment period but would face pressure later. For palm oil, the fundamentals were positive, but the expected high inventory put pressure on the market. For rapeseed oil, there was a lack of new topics in the market, and it was expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern before the festival [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is advisable to conservatively observe the market and engage in intraday trading before the Spring Festival. The report provides support and pressure levels for various contracts [2]. - Arbitrage trading: None at present [2]. 3.2 Two Meals (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On February 12th, driven by the rise in the external market, short basis and long futures positions, the two - meal market continued to rebound. The closing prices of various contracts increased to varying degrees, and the trading volume also changed [2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The February USDA soybean supply - demand report was generally bearish, slightly increasing Brazil's production and global soybean inventory. However, the increase in US soybean exports pushed up the US soybean futures price. The report also provided data on the US, Brazil, and Argentina's soybean production, exports, and inventory [3]. - As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, domestic import soybean inventory decreased, while domestic soybean meal inventory and contract volume increased. Domestic imported rapeseed inventory decreased, and imported rapeseed meal inventory and contract volume increased [3]. - The national grain trading center's soybean auction on January 13th had a 100% transaction rate [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the improved trade prospects of US soybeans pushed up the US soybean futures price. For domestic soybean meal, as the Spring Festival approached, some institutions adjusted their positions for risk - avoidance reasons. The market showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and there was a short - term rebound. The spot price of the oil refinery increased slightly, and the market was light. For rapeseed meal, domestic oil refineries were actively buying rapeseed in the far - month. Considering the expected increase in imports and the end of pre - festival stocking, the domestic two - meal market was expected to have a weak and narrow - range shock pattern before the festival and was likely to face downward pressure after the festival [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - It is not recommended to chase the upward trend significantly, and existing long positions should be gradually reduced. The report provides support and pressure levels for various contracts. Arbitrage trading: None at present [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall pattern of vegetable oils continues to oscillate narrowly due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday and cautious trading in the domestic market, despite the positive January supply - demand report of Malaysian palm oil and the strengthening of US soybean oil [1]. - The double - meal market shows a narrow - range fluctuation before the Spring Festival, and is likely to face downward pressure after the festival [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock (Three Oils) 3.1.1 Market Review - On February 10, the US soybean oil strengthened, but the domestic vegetable oil market remained in a narrow - range oscillation. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased to varying degrees, with corresponding changes in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1]. - The US government is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, with the proposed biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons [1]. - Malaysia's January palm oil supply - demand report was positive, with a decrease in imports, production, and inventory, and an increase in exports [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026 [1]. - As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, with different trends in the inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the signing of the US - India trade agreement, potential increases in US biodiesel policies and usage, and the positive Malaysian palm oil supply - demand report are positive factors. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market is cautious. Domestically, soybean oil production is high, and the post - festival market may face pressure from increased supply. Palm oil has positive fundamentals but high expected inventory, and rapeseed oil's far - month contracts are under pressure due to expected increases in imports [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, it is advisable to adopt a conservative wait - and - see approach and conduct intraday trading before the Spring Festival. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [2]. 3.2 Two Meals (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On February 10, as the holiday approached, the double - meal market maintained a narrow - range fluctuation, with different changes in the closing prices and positions of major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture's February soybean supply - demand report was overall negative, but the expected increase in US soybean exports boosted the US soybean futures price. Data on soybean production, inventory, and export in the US, Brazil, and Argentina are provided, as well as information on domestic inventory, auction, and spot prices [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, although the US supply - demand report was negative, the expected increase in exports supported the US soybean price. As the Spring Festival approaches, institutions adjust positions, and the market focuses on profit transfer. Domestically, logistics is stagnant, trading is light, and the double - meal market is expected to be weak and face downward pressure after the festival [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - During the Spring Festival, the double - meal market is expected to oscillate narrowly, and intraday trading is recommended. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Volatility**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile in the short term. For soybean meal, the supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the price is under pressure. The rainfall in Argentina in February needs to be monitored. For rapeseed meal, the supply situation is expected to improve, but it lacks positive drivers in the off - season [1]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are in a short - term consolidation phase. Palm oil may face inventory pressure, and the impact of imports and market trends in Malaysia needs to be concerned. Soybean oil is in a de - stocking stage, but the supply is relatively abundant. Rapeseed oil supply tension has been alleviated, but attention should be paid to the risk of basis support weakening [1]. - **Oscillatory Adjustment**: Cotton is in an oscillatory adjustment state. The outer - disk price has an impact on the domestic market, and the demand is in the off - season, with weak upward drive before the Spring Festival. However, there is a relatively strong expectation in the medium and long term [1]. - **Pressured Operation**: The spot performance of red dates is flat, but the futures price may fluctuate. High - inventory de - stocking may drive a short - term rebound, but the overall pattern is under pressure [1]. - **Oscillatory Weakness**: The price of live pigs is expected to be oscillatory and weak. In the context of supply - demand balance before the Spring Festival, there may be a short - term price rebound in some areas, but it lacks a sustainable basis. Near - month contracts are prone to fall, while far - month contracts lack a basis for upward trends but have opportunities for phased long - positions [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: The futures price of soybean meal closed at 2729 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3154 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The soybean crushing profit has decreased, and the basis of some contracts has increased [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Argentina's soybean - producing areas may receive rainfall to relieve drought. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is much faster than last year, and new supplies are entering the market. In the domestic market, if there are new US soybean purchase orders, the government will continue to put them into the market through auctions. Facing the arrival of more cost - effective South American soybeans, low - price auctions are the most effective way to release reserves. The expected sufficient supply of soybeans in the domestic market puts pressure on the spot and futures prices of soybean meal [1]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Conditions**: The futures price of rapeseed meal closed at 2238 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2556.32 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The rapeseed spot pressing profit has decreased [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The first batch of Australian rapeseeds has entered the pressing process, and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills has broken the previous zero state. The continuous purchase of Canadian rapeseeds has improved the supply situation of domestic rapeseeds and rapeseed meal. In the off - season of consumption, rapeseed meal lacks positive drivers [1][6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: The futures price of palm oil closed at 9014 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day. The national average price was 9020 yuan/ton, down 0.66%. The import cost has decreased, and the weekly commercial inventory has increased [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 5 increased by 7.65% month - on - month, which is bearish. In the domestic market, the large import volume of palm oil in February may lead to short - term inventory pressure. The active quotation of foreign merchants and the significant repair of import profits may affect the domestic purchase and the market [1][9]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market Conditions**: The futures price of the main cotton contract (CF2605) remained unchanged at 14580 yuan/ton. The spot price of CCIndex (3218B) was 15967 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The national commercial inventory decreased to 552.72 tons [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, Brazil and Turkey are expected to reduce cotton production. In the domestic market, new cotton processing is basically completed, and the raw material inventory is being de - stocked, but the de - stocking speed is relatively moderate. The import has increased, but the demand is in the off - season, and the upward drive before the Spring Festival is weak. In the medium and long term, there is a relatively strong expectation due to planting compression and inventory replenishment [1][11][12]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Market Conditions**: The futures price of the main red date contract (CJ2605) was 8725 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day. The spot prices in various regions remained stable. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased to 11888 tons [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of red dates is stable, and the market price is flat. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption season, the futures price fluctuates. High - inventory de - stocking may drive a short - term rebound, but the overall supply - demand pattern is loose [1][15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The futures price of the main live pig contract (lh2605) was 11565 yuan/ton, down 0.52% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 11740 yuan/ton, down 2.65%. The inventory and slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the supply side, the January slaughter plan of breeding enterprises was slightly over - completed, and the February plan is expected to decrease, but the daily slaughter pressure may increase. The de - stocking of breeding sows is not as expected, which is not conducive to the far - month contracts. In the demand side, the slaughter start - up rate has increased, and the market is in a situation of supply - demand balance before the Spring Festival. The overall profit is still above 0 yuan/head, which is not conducive to further capacity reduction [1][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the commodity market was weak on February 6, with the vegetable oil sector mainly in a weak oscillation. The prices of various oil futures contracts showed different changes, and the inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased week - on - week. For the oil market, due to factors such as the unstable situation in the Middle East, US biodiesel policies, and changes in production and exports of palm oil, the market is expected to be volatile. For the two - meal market, although there is an external input cost increase, due to domestic auction expectations and the end of pre - Spring Festival stocking, the domestic two - meal market is mainly in a weak and narrow - range oscillation, and is likely to be under pressure after the Spring Festival [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Vegetable Oil**: On February 6, the soybean oil main contract Y2605 closed at 8102 yuan/ton, down 0.02% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 14,549 lots; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 8054 yuan/ton, up 0.10% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 1,551 lots. The palm oil main contract P2605 closed at 9026 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 11,261 lots; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8998 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 2,111 lots. The rapeseed oil main contract OI2609 closed at 9090 yuan/ton, up 0.04% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 1,447 lots; the second - main contract OI2605 closed at 9144 yuan/ton, down 0.7% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 1,911 lots [1] - **Two - Meal**: On February 6, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2735 yuan/ton, up 0.15% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 5,5549 lots; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2858 yuan/ton, up 0.14% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 5,583 lots. The rapeseed meal main contract RM2605 closed at 2239 yuan/ton, up 0.04% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 12,185 lots; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2286 yuan/ton, up 0.09% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 1,045 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Vegetable Oil**: Crude oil futures fell nearly 3% as supply concerns eased before the US - Iran talks. The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons. Bloomberg estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.42 million tons, imports were 40,000 tons, consumption was 340,000 tons, and inventory was 2.89 million tons. Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. The SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in January decreased by 13.08% month - on - month. The ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 17.9% compared with December. In 2025, Indonesia exported 23.61 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, with a year - on - year increase of 9.09%. As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88% [1] - **Two - Meal**: Trump said that he had a "very positive" call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and China agreed to increase soybean purchases from the US from 12 million tons to 20 million tons this season. The ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 were 3.79 million tons. The AgRural predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would be 181 million tons. As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete. As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,200 tons, and the contract volume was 4.9937 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 762,200 tons. The domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, and the contract volume was 0 tons. The domestic imported soybean inventory was 6.8483 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 343,500 tons. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 120,000 tons [3] 3.3 Spot Market - **Vegetable Oil**: As of February 6, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8640 yuan/ton, with a base difference of 536 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9080 yuan/ton, with a base difference of 54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 84 yuan/ton, and the palm oil import profit was - 335.9 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9870 yuan/ton, with a base difference of 726 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 41 yuan/ton [2] - **Two - Meal**: As of February 5, the spot price of soybean meal was 3106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 62,000 tons. The base difference of the soybean meal main contract was 369 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2510 yuan/ton, with a base difference of 172 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 61 yuan/ton [3] 3.4 Market Logic - **Vegetable Oil**: Externally, the unstable situation in the Middle East made international oil prices fluctuate, but the decline of US soybean oil was limited due to US biodiesel policies. The decrease in January production boosted the expectation of a decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price was expected to oscillate. For soybean oil, the factory's开机率 remained around 65% in the past two weeks, and the decrease in factory soybean oil inventory was limited. After the Spring Festival, the concentrated restocking of traders would support the base difference, but then the traditional off - season would come, and if the rumor of 5 million tons of soybean auctions came true, the base difference would be under pressure. For palm oil, although the decrease in production and increase in exports were positive, the high inventory of about 2.9 million tons put pressure on the market. For rapeseed oil, due to the weakening of the domestic macro - sentiment and the expected maintenance of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed at 14.9%, the far - month contracts of rapeseed oil were under pressure [2] - **Two - Meal**: Externally, after the Sino - US leaders' call, the expectation of purchasing 45 million tons of US soybeans in the second quarter and the increase in domestic biodiesel demand in the US made US soybeans continue to rise strongly. As the Spring Festival approached, some institutions adjusted their positions. The increasing sales pressure in Brazil and the falling premium led to the market's focus on the profit transfer from upstream to downstream. The rumor of 5 million tons of imported soybean auctions after the Spring Festival weakened the expectation of supply shortage. Domestically, the logistics transportation gradually stopped around the Lunar New Year's Eve, and the actual trading of oil mills was light. For rapeseed meal, due to the active far - month purchases of rapeseed by domestic oil mills, the domestic two - meal market was mainly in a weak and narrow - range oscillation and was likely to be under pressure after the Spring Festival [3] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Vegetable Oil**: With the Spring Festival approaching, due to the uncontrollable external macro - risks, it is advisable to conservatively wait and see and conduct intraday trading. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [2] - **Two - Meal**: During the Spring Festival, the two - meal market is mainly in a narrow - range oscillation, and it is advisable to conduct intraday trading with an unclear direction. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [3][4] 3.6 Contract Pressure and Support Levels - **Vegetable Oil**: The pressure level of Y2605 is 8560, and the support level is 7400; the pressure level of Y2609 is 8692, and the support level is 7370; the pressure level of P2605 is 9418, and the support level is 7940; the pressure level of P2609 is 9696, and the support level is 7940; the pressure level of OI2605 is 9544, and the support level is 8250; the pressure level of OI2609 is 9400, and the support level is 8400 [2] - **Two - Meal**: The pressure level of M2605 is 2858, and the support level is 2660; the pressure level of M2607 is 2840, and the support level is 2559; the pressure level of M2609 is 2920, and the support level is 2717; the pressure level of RM2605 is 2444, and the support level is 2220; the pressure level of RM2607 is 2429, and the support level is 2200; the pressure level of RM2609 is 2448, and the support level is 2274 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, due to factors such as unstable Middle - East situation, U.S. biodiesel policy, and changes in palm oil production and inventory, the market is influenced by macro - emotions. Before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to observe conservatively as the direction is unclear [1][2]. - For the two - meal sector, although the external input cost is rising, due to domestic auction expectations and the end of pre - Spring Festival stocking, the domestic two - meal market shows a weak and narrow - range oscillation trend, and it is advisable to trade intraday during the Spring Festival [2][3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil (Three Oils) 3.1.1 Market Review - On February 5th, the non - ferrous sector declined sharply, the Wenhua Index weakened, and the vegetable oil sector turned down. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8104 yuan/ton, down 0.44% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 12,674 lots; the secondary main contract Y2609 closed at 8046 yuan/ton, down 0.35% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 9525 lots. The main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 9042 yuan/ton, down 1.05% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 13,432 lots; the secondary main contract P2609 closed at 9014 yuan/ton, down 0.79% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 2720 lots. The secondary main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 9144 yuan/ton, down 1.07% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 6705 lots; the main contract OI2609 closed at 9086 yuan/ton, down 1.00% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 1771 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - Crude oil futures fell nearly 3% as supply concerns eased before the U.S. - Iran talks. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, basically following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to impose penalties on imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The U.S. EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons, with final approval expected in Q1 2026. - Bloomberg estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.42 million tons, imports were 40,000 tons, consumption was 340,000 tons, and inventory was 2.89 million tons, lower than the 3.05 million tons in December announced by MPOB. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil. - Data from the Southern Palm Oil Producers' Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in January decreased by 13.08% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 13.78% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.16% month - on - month. - The shipping survey agency ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January were 1,463,069 tons, a 17.9% increase from December's 1,240,587 tons. Exports to China were 40,100 tons, a decrease of 92,300 tons from the previous month. - Indonesia's statistics bureau said that in 2025, Indonesia exported 23.61 million tons of crude palm oil and refined palm oil, a 9.09% year - on - year increase, with a total export value of $24.42 billion. - As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a weekly decrease of 51,000 tons, a 2.49% month - on - month decrease and a 2.88% year - on - year decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.0912 million tons, a weekly decrease of 5100 tons, a 0.47% month - on - month decrease and a 7.61% year - on - year increase; edible palm oil inventory was 639,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 32,600 tons, a 4.85% month - on - month decrease and a 48.26% year - on - year increase; rapeseed oil inventory was 263,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,300 tons, a 4.81% month - on - month decrease and a 56.67% year - on - year decrease [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of February 5th, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton and a basis of 536 yuan/ton; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 36 yuan/ton and a basis of 138 yuan/ton; the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,010 yuan/ton. The palm oil import profit was - 361.53 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton, a basis of 767 yuan/ton, and a month - on - month increase of 92 yuan/ton. As of February 5th, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.97 [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, the unstable situation in the Middle East has made international oil prices fluctuate disorderly. Due to the restraint of U.S. biodiesel policy, the decline of U.S. soybean oil is limited. The decrease in January production has boosted the expectation that the Malaysian palm oil inventory will decline, and it is expected that the Malaysian palm oil futures price will remain volatile. Overnight, international precious metal prices showed signs of weakness again, and U.S. technology stocks tumbled. With the Spring Festival approaching in China, after the Sino - U.S. leaders' call, an additional 45 million tons of U.S. soybeans will be purchased, which creates an expectation of loose domestic oil supply in the long - term. Also, as the oil stocking is coming to an end, market trading willingness has decreased. Overall, macro - emotions are still the dominant factor, fundamental factors are temporarily secondary, and risk - aversion awareness has increased. It is advisable to observe conservatively before the Spring Festival [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, as the Spring Festival is approaching, external macro - risks are uncontrollable, and market risk - aversion awareness has risen. It is advisable to observe conservatively before the festival, and the direction is unclear. The resistance level of Y2605 is 8560, and the support level is 7400; the resistance level of Y2609 is 8692, and the support level is 7370; the resistance level of P2605 is 9418, and the support level is 7940; the resistance level of P2609 is 9696, and the support level is 7880; the resistance level of OI2605 is 9544, and the support level is 8250; the resistance level of OI2609 is 9400, and the support level is 8400. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [2]. 3.2 Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On February 5th, after the Sino - U.S. leaders' call, U.S. soybeans rose sharply, but the overall domestic commodity market was weak, so domestic two - meal prices fluctuated narrowly, ignoring the external rise. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2731 yuan/ton, up 0.29% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 3560 lots; the secondary main contract M2609 closed at 2854 yuan/ton, up 0.53% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 38,911 lots. The main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2238 yuan/ton, down 0.04% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 18,951 lots; the secondary main contract RM2609 closed at 2284 yuan/ton, down 0.35% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 26,935 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - U.S. President Trump said that he had a "very positive" call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade and security issues. Chinese leaders agreed to increase the purchase of U.S. soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 would be 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 3.73 million tons. If the estimate is realized, it will be a 238% increase from the 1.12 million tons in the same period last year, setting a record high for the same period. - The consulting firm AgRural estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 181 million tons, about 600,000 tons higher than the December 22nd forecast. If the forecast is realized, it will be a 5.54% increase from the 171.5 million tons in the 2024/25 season. As of last Thursday (January 22nd), the soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season was 4.9%, compared with 2.0% last week and 3.9% in the same period last year. - As of December 30th, the sowing progress of Argentina's 2025/26 season soybeans was 75.5%, higher than 75.82% a week ago. The growth condition of the sown soybeans was good. 96.1% of the soybeans were rated normal to excellent, higher than 95.2% a week ago; 96.1% of the soybean fields' moisture was rated suitable to optimal, higher than 96% a week ago. Meanwhile, the sowing progress of the second - season soybeans reached 71.9% of the intended area, higher than 57.9% a week ago. - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from last week, a 4.35% month - on - month decrease; the contract volume was 4.9937 million tons, a decrease of 762,200 tons from last week, a 13.24% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 0 tons, the same as last week, with a month - on - month change of 0; the contract volume was 0 tons, the same as last week, with a month - on - month change of 0. The total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 6.8483 million tons, a decrease of 343,500 tons from last week. The inventory in the same period last year was 4.452 million tons, and the five - week average was 7.0502 million tons. The total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 120,000 tons, the same as last week. The inventory in the same period last year was 536,000 tons, and the five - week average was 96,000 tons. - On January 13th, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1,139,605.33 tons of soybeans from 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, distributed in Shandong, Henan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Liaoning, Henan, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi. The actual transaction was 1,139,605.33 tons, with a base price of 3630/3650/3660/3690/3700/3710/3720/3730/3750/3760/3740/3790 yuan/ton, an average transaction price of 3809.55 yuan/ton, a transaction ratio of 100%, and a delivery date from March 1st to April 30th, 2026 [2][3]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of February 5th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 62,000 tons. The basis price of soybean meal was 3068 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 51,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 369 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2510 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis was 2453 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 41 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 172 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 61 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.4 Pressing Margin - The February futures pressing margin of U.S. soybeans was - 466 yuan/ton, and the spot pressing margin was - 116 yuan/ton; the February futures pressing margin of Brazilian soybeans was - 112 yuan/ton, and the spot pressing margin was 239 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.5 Soybean Arrival Cost - The arrival cost of U.S. Gulf soybeans in Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs for the February shipment was 3988 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans in Zhangjiagang for the February shipment was 3698 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of U.S. Gulf soybeans for the February shipment was 499 US dollars/ton; the CNF quote of Brazilian soybeans for the February shipment was 462 US dollars/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian soybeans for the February shipment was 532 US dollars/ton; the arrival cost of rapeseed in Guangzhou Port for the February shipment was 4489 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.6 Market Logic - Externally, after the Sino - U.S. leaders' call, it is expected that 45 million tons of U.S. soybeans will be purchased in the second quarter, and the domestic biodiesel demand in the U.S. is expected to rise, so U.S. soybeans continue to rise strongly. The Brazilian soybean premium has dropped significantly, and there are rumors of a 5 - million - ton imported soybean auction after the Spring Festival, which further strengthens the expectation of loose domestic supply, and the spot market sentiment is low. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills fluctuates within a narrow range of 10 - 20 yuan, and the near - month basis remains stable. As traders' final orders are executed and the Spring Festival approaches, some oil mills have suspended taking orders. Against the background of improved expectations of U.S. soybean imports, domestic supply pressure is gradually emerging, and traders' mentality has become pessimistic, with little willingness to raise prices. For rapeseed meal, the fact that foreign capital has not further increased short positions also limits the downward space of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate around 2250 yuan, and there is a risk of further decline. The spot market fluctuates with the futures, and the basis quotation is relatively stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics has tightened, and vehicle sources are in short supply. In Nantong, there has been a selling - off situation for rapeseed meal, and the fixed - price continues to decline. Overall, although the external input cost is rising,

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, the US biodiesel policy boosts global vegetable oil prices. Palm oil and soybean oil stop falling and rebound, while rapeseed oil bottoms out and stabilizes. With the US interest - rate cut, the financial attributes of vegetable oils are enhanced, and it is advisable to adopt a long - term bullish strategy of buying on dips for soybean and palm oils, and hold short - term long positions for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength [2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the near - month contracts should be treated with a rebound mindset, and the opportunity to lay out new short positions for the 09 contracts should be awaited after the rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Vegetable Oils Market Performance - On January 22, vegetable oils continued their strong trend with a large inflow of funds. Palm oil led the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased compared to the previous day, with corresponding increases in positions [1]. Important Information - On January 21, NYMEX crude oil futures rose due to supply concerns, with the more active March contract up $0.26 or 0.4% to $60.62 per barrel [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas in early March, and the EPA is considering setting biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1]. - Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1]. - Indian buyers locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - From January 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, while exports increased by 11.4% [1]. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters from 2025 [1]. - As of the 3rd weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 38,300 tons week - on - week, a 1.79% decrease [2]. Market Logic - Externally, the US biodiesel policy makes US soybean oil oscillate strongly. In Malaysia, good export data and concerns about supply boost palm oil prices. Domestically, soybean oil news is mixed, palm oil benefits from the US biodiesel policy and improved export data, and rapeseed oil follows related oils in a wide - range oscillation [2]. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, continue to hold existing long positions in soybean and palm oils, and slightly enter long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2]. - For arbitrage, exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [2]. Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Performance - On January 22, due to pre - festival stockpiling, soybean meal inventory decreased, and previous short positions left the market, resulting in a technical rebound. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all increased compared to the previous day, with corresponding changes in positions [2]. Important Information - Since the Sino - US trade truce in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the commitment ahead of schedule [3]. - In January 2026, Brazil's soybean export volume is estimated to be 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and a 238% increase from the same period last year [3]. - StoneX predicts that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate [3]. - As of January 16, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, faster than the same period in previous years [3]. - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the growth status was good [3]. - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean export volume will be 105 million tons, a 3% decrease from last year [3]. - As of the 3rd weekend of 2026, China's imported soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories also changed [3]. - The January 13 import soybean auction had a 100% transaction rate [3]. Market Logic - Externally, slow South American soybean harvests strengthen US soybean futures prices. Domestically, oil - mill prices rise with the market, and downstream buyers are active in stockpiling. The impact of Sino - Canadian trade relations on rapeseed meal supply and demand is limited in the short term. With short - position funds leaving the market, Zhengzhou rapeseed meal rebounds, but the overall bullish sentiment is cautious [4]. Trading Strategy - Operate the 05 contracts of double - meal with a rebound mindset, and wait for the opportunity to lay out short positions for the 09 contracts after the rebound. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [4]. - There is currently no arbitrage strategy [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The U.S. biodiesel policy is on the agenda, boosting global vegetable oil prices. Among the three major oils, palm oil and soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed oil has bottomed out and stabilized. Against the backdrop of U.S. interest rate cuts, with abundant global funds and strengthened inflation expectations, the financial attributes of vegetable oils will be further stimulated. It is advisable to maintain a long - term bullish mindset for soybean and palm oils and buy on dips, and pay attention to the rebound strength of rapeseed oil and hold short - term long positions. For double - meal products, the 05 contracts should be traded within a range with a bottom - oscillating mindset, and new short positions for the 09 contracts can be considered after a rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock - Three Oils 1. Market Review - On January 21, news that Indonesia revoked the licenses of 28 companies related to palm oil plantations led to concerns about palm oil supply. Palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil sector, followed by soybean oil, while rapeseed oil was the weakest. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes compared to the previous day, with some contracts increasing in price and positions, and some decreasing [1]. 2. Important Information - On January 21, NYMEX crude oil futures rose due to supply concerns. The more actively traded March crude oil futures contract rose $0.26 or 0.4%, settling at $60.62 per barrel. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The U.S. EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons, with final approval expected in Q1 2026. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9%. - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 were 435,882 tons, the same as the previous period. Exports to China decreased by 41,000 tons to 17,000 tons compared to the previous month. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, while the Non - PSO total allocation increased. The B50 road test started in December 2025 and is expected to last for 6 months. The mandatory addition of B50 is expected to start in the second half of 2026, later than the market's previous expectation. - As of the end of the 3rd week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1034 million tons, a weekly decrease of 38,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.10%. The inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes [1][2]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the U.S. biodiesel policy has pushed up the price of U.S. soybean oil, which shows a volatile and upward - trending pattern. In Malaysia, the good export data of palm oil in the first 15 days of January and the revocation of 28 palm plantation licenses in Indonesia have boosted the price of Malaysian palm oil futures. Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. Although customs have tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, the auction of old imported soybeans has been fully sold, and oil mills have sufficient soybeans for crushing, with the Spring Festival stocking still ongoing. For palm oil, the negative data from Southeast Asia has been digested, and the market is more focused on the U.S. biodiesel policy expectations, along with improved export data, which has led to a rise in palm oil prices. For rapeseed oil, the strong performance of related international oils has limited the downside, and with the market's acceptance of the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, the downside space of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil is limited, and it mainly follows a wide - range oscillating pattern [2]. 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Hold existing long positions in soybean and palm oils, and slightly increase long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil. - Arbitrage trading: Exit the previously focused strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [2]. B. Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 1. Market Review - On January 21, the inventory of soybean meal decreased, and the prices of the two - meal futures stabilized. Technically, they entered the oversold zone and rebounded. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different changes compared to the previous day, with all contracts increasing in positions [2]. 2. Important Information - Since the Sino - U.S. trade truce agreement in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling the commitment in advance. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has adjusted the global soybean outlook for the 2025/26 season, with increased production, increased crushing volume, decreased exports, and increased ending inventory. Brazil and the U.S. have increased production, while China's production has decreased. - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate. - As of January 16, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, faster than the previous week and the same period last year. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso state was 6.69%, also faster than the previous week and the same period in previous years. - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions. The sowing progress of second - season soybeans was 71.9%. - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons, a decrease from the previous forecast, and the crushing volume will reach 60 million tons, an increase from last year. - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a significant increase from the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons. - As of the end of the 3rd week of 2026, the inventory of imported soybeans in China decreased, the inventory of soybean meal decreased, and the inventory of imported rapeseed remained unchanged. The inventory and contract volume of imported crushed rapeseed meal remained at zero. - The auction of imported soybeans on January 13 was fully sold, with a high成交 rate and a certain成交 price. - As of January 21, the spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the basis prices also decreased. The crushing margins and soybean arrival costs are provided [2][3][4]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the slow progress of soybean harvesting in South America has led to a rise in U.S. soybean futures prices. The strong Brazilian soybean premium and active downstream pricing and pick - up have supported the spot market, but the loose supply - demand situation and high crushing margins have led foreign investors to increase short positions. Domestically, the fixed - price of oil mills has remained stable, and the near - month basis has slightly strengthened. It is expected that the spot price will remain firm before the Spring Festival. For rapeseed meal, the negative impact of import trade of Canadian rapeseed meal has been digested, and the price has rebounded technically. The spot price adjusts with the market [4]. 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: The 05 contracts of double - meal products should be traded within a range with a bottom - oscillating mindset, and new short positions for the 09 contracts can be considered after a rebound. Provide support and resistance levels for major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. - Arbitrage trading: No trading opportunities are recommended currently [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The US biofuel policy is on the agenda, boosting the global vegetable oil prices. Currently, it is difficult to operate in the oil market, and no trend direction has been formed. Given the strengthening of the bottom of soybean and palm oil, it is advisable to maintain a long - term bullish mindset of buying on dips. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the rebound strength and hold short - term long positions [2] - For double - meal futures, the 05 contract maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset for mid - line trading, and the 09 contract may gradually decline. Consider gradually laying out short positions for the 09 contract [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Vegetable Oil Market a. Market Review - On January 19, the commodity market cooled down. Rapeseed oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector, while palm oil and soybean oil showed resistance. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,996 yuan/ton, down 0.25% day - on - day, with an increase of 584 lots in positions [1] b. Important Information - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month from South America [1] c. Market Logic - Externally, the easing of the US - Iran situation pressured international crude oil prices, but the US biofuel policy boosted US soybean oil prices. The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan and Malaysia's reduction of export tariffs affected the palm oil market [2] - Domestically, for soybean oil, there were both positive and negative factors. For palm oil, the cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan led to inventory accumulation. For rapeseed oil, the short - selling funds entered the market, but then the price rebounded [2] d. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, new long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oil, and short - term long positions for rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2] - For arbitrage trading, exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] 2. Double - Meal Market a. Market Review - On January 19, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,727 yuan/ton, with no change in the closing price day - on - day, and a decrease of 24,449 lots in positions [2] b. Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully subscribed, with an average transaction price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton [2][3] - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, higher crushing volume, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 178 million tons [3] c. Market Logic - Externally, the Chinese tariff adjustment on Canadian rapeseed slightly dragged down the protein meal market, but the Brazilian discount remained firm. The main contract of domestic protein meal futures oscillated in the short term [4] - Domestically, the policy of reducing tariffs on Canadian rapeseed was a major negative factor. The spot market was supported by terminal inventory building before the Spring Festival [4] d. Trading Strategy - For the 05 contract of double - meal, maintain a bottom - oscillating mindset for mid - line trading and trade within the day. Gradually lay out short positions for the 09 contract. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [4] - No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, the U.S. biofuel policy has boosted global vegetable oil prices, but the operation difficulty has increased and no trend direction has formed yet. In the long - term, a bullish mindset of buying on dips is appropriate for soybean and palm oils, and short - term long positions can be held for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength [1][2]. - For the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, the overall weak pattern of Zhengzhou meal has not changed. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term, and short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contract [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On January 16, the U.S. biofuel policy offset the negative impact of Indonesia canceling B50, and the vegetable oil sector strengthened again. Rapeseed oil had the largest increase. For example, the closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract OI2605 was 9063 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.66% and a daily increase in positions of 10,800 lots [1]. Important Information - On January 16, NYMEX crude oil futures rose, but in the short - term, the trend is still dominated by geopolitical risks, and in the long - term, weak fundamentals will limit the upside space [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the U.S. EPA is considering setting the biodiesel usage in 2026 between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1]. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9% [1]. - From January 1 - 10 in Malaysia, palm oil exports increased by 29.2% compared with the same period in December, but exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons [1]. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared with 2025 [1][2]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 4.67% week - on - week, with different changes in the inventory of each oil type [2]. Market Logic - In the external market, the easing of the U.S. - Iran situation pressured international crude oil, but the U.S. biofuel quota approval boosted U.S. soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil was affected by multiple factors and finally recovered its decline [2]. - In the domestic market, for soybean oil, there are both positive and negative news, and the Spring Festival stocking is ongoing; for palm oil, the import profit has recovered and the inventory is increasing; for rapeseed oil, the short - selling funds entered the market but then exited due to the approaching of the bottom support [2]. Trading Strategy - For one - sided trading, new long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oils, and short - term long positions for rapeseed oil. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [2]. - For arbitrage, the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference should be exited [2]. Two - Meal Sector (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Review - On January 16, the "buy - oil sell - meal" strategy and the commodity market cooled down, and the two - meal prices oscillated downward. For example, the closing price of the soybean meal main contract M2605 was 2727 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.47% and a daily increase in positions of 4054 lots [2][3]. Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully successful, and most of them had a premium [3]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised the 2025/26 global soybean production forecast, and there were corresponding changes in other aspects such as crushing volume and ending inventory [3]. - StoneX predicted that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production might reach 178.9 million tons [3]. - As of January 9, the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, higher than the same period last year and the five - year average [3]. - As of December 30, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 82%, and the growth situation was good [3]. - ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 would be 3.73 million tons, a significant increase compared with the same period last year [3]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported soybean inventory increased, and the soybean meal inventory decreased [3]. - The auction of imported soybeans on January 13 was fully successful, with specific details such as base price, transaction price, and delivery date [3]. Market Logic - In the external market, the U.S. new - year biofuel use plan boosted U.S. soybeans. In the domestic market, multiple factors pressured the futures market, but the spot market was active, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [4]. Trading Strategy - For the two - meal 05 contract, maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset for medium - term trading and conduct intraday trading. Gradually arrange short positions for the 09 contract. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [4]. - For arbitrage, no strategy is provided currently [4].