新纪元期货研究 20251205 三大油脂周度报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内三大油脂现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.11.28 | 2025.12.5 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅% | 现货指标 2025.11.28 | | 2025.12.5 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅% | | 棕榈油 | P2605 | 8678 | 8762 | 84 | 0.97 | 中国：现货价：棕榈油： 生意社 | 8518 | 8700 | 182 | 2.13 | | 菜油 | OI2601 | 9757 | 9618 | -139 | -1.42 | 中国：现货价：菜油： 生意社 | 10135 | 10045 | -90 | -0.89 | | 豆油 | Y2605 | 8040 | 8080 | 40 | 0.50 | 中国：现货价：豆油： 生意社 | 8442 | 8394 | -48 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans (Domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - For soybeans and related products, pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions. In the short - term, soybean and soybean meal markets are volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended before the tariff and weather issues are clear. For soybean oil and palm oil, maintain a strategy of buying on dips. Be cautious about the situation of stronger oil and weaker meal in the fourth quarter [2][3][4]. - Rapeseed products are in a weak oscillation state, and the downward space of rapeseed meal is limited. Focus on economic and trade prospects and production area weather [6]. - Corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly. Keep an eye on the supply in the circulation link and the inventory of old grain [7]. - For eggs, near - month futures are weak, while far - month contracts for next year's first half are strong. Be cautious about the pressure of cold - stored eggs leaving the warehouse [9]. 3. Summary by Product Categories 3.1 Soybeans - Domestic soybeans' main contract has a narrow - range oscillation this week, with prices remaining relatively strong. The domestic soybean spot is stable. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade negotiation next week and the short - term waterlogging risk in the northern production areas. The overall weather risk in the US soybean production areas from late July to early August is low [2]. 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - Dalian soybean meal futures continue to oscillate downward. The third - round Sino - US trade talks may yield results next week. The US soybean production areas will have slightly more rainfall than normal in the next two weeks, and there will be high - temperature and then cooling processes in the central and southeastern regions. Before the tariff and weather issues are clear, treat the soybean meal market as oscillatory [3]. 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil has a significant reduction in positions at a phased high, and the price drops. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade negotiation next week. The vegetable oil price is affected by the macro - situation, and the capital fluctuation is large at the phased high. Although the short - term supply - demand data of Malaysian palm oil is weak, the data of Indonesia is more optimistic, and the prices of international sunflower oil, palm kernel oil, and coconut oil are strong, which boosts palm oil. Maintain a strategy of buying soybean oil and palm oil on dips. Be cautious about the situation of stronger oil and weaker meal in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products are mainly in a weak oscillation state with a small fluctuation range. The weather in the Canadian rapeseed production area has improved, and the fund's net long position continues to decline. The domestic rapeseed demand is expected to slow down, but the downward space of rapeseed meal is limited due to the seasonal support of aquatic feed and the expected low import of rapeseed in the third quarter [6]. 3.5 Corn - Corn futures continue to oscillate weakly. The auction of imported corn by China Grain Reserves Corporation has a 28% transaction rate. The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly [7]. 3.6 Live Pigs - The text about live pigs mainly mentions the situation of corn futures. There is no specific information about live pigs in the provided content [8]. 3.7 Eggs - Near - month egg futures are weak, while far - month contracts for next year's first half are strong due to the expected price reversal after capacity reduction. The spot price is stable across the country, and it is necessary to be cautious about the pressure of cold - stored eggs leaving the warehouse [9].

Core Viewpoint - Chicago wheat prices have risen for the second consecutive day due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with concerns regarding weather conditions in major producing countries [1] Group 1 - The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, with Ukraine launching significant attacks against Russia over the weekend [1] - The escalation of hostilities has diminished hopes for a ceasefire, which poses a threat to the smooth supply of grain in the Black Sea region [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent sale of 280,000 tons of old crop soybeans from the United States, which has met expectations in the market [1] - It highlights the pressure from Brazil's soybean production, which is expected to impact future pricing due to weather risks [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Performance - The sale of 280,000 tons of old crop soybeans from the U.S. is described as "just meeting the target," indicating a stable demand in the market [1] - This sale reflects the current market dynamics and the competitive landscape with Brazilian soybeans [1] Group 2: Production and Weather Risks - Brazil's soybean production is described as being at a high level, which could overshadow U.S. sales [1] - Weather conditions are identified as a potential dominant factor influencing future soybean prices, suggesting volatility in the market [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ Indicating a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆★ Suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ Representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability, recommending a wait - and - see approach [1] - Apple: Not explicitly rated in a star system in the given content [1] - Logs: Not explicitly rated in a star system in the given content [1] - Natural Rubber: Not explicitly rated in a star system in the given content [1] - 20 -号 Rubber: ☆☆☆ Implying a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ Indicating a short - term balanced state with poor operability, recommending a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as tariff policies, weather, and raw material supply. It is recommended to wait and see for most commodities, and for apples, it is advised to hold existing long positions or wait and see [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded significantly due to the US suspending tariff collection on most countries for 90 days and reducing reciprocal tariffs to 10%. Domestic cotton spot trading declined. Spinning mills' inventory of pure cotton yarn is not high, and actual transactions are scarce. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is greatly affected by tariffs, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to correct. Crude oil's continuous decline is negative for US sugar. The trading focus of US sugar will shift to Brazil's sugar supply in the medium - and long - term. The high sugar - ethanol ratio in Brazil is negative for sugar. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuates. The trading focus will shift to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales are good, and imports have decreased significantly, but the downward trend of US sugar and sufficient domestic supply limit the upside of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. The northwest region is gradually entering the flowering period, and there is a cooling process this weekend, increasing weather risks. However, it is expected that the impact on apple blossoms will be small. It is recommended to hold existing long positions or wait and see [4] 20 -号 Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Due to the US suspending tariff collection on most countries for 90 days, RU and NRBR both rose sharply. The global natural rubber supply is in an increasing period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate decreased last week. The domestic tire operating rate continued to decline, and the inventory pressure of finished products remains. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased, while the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased. The rubber market is driven by policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to take advantage of the rebound and hold cross - variety positions [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp rebounded significantly. The import from the US may decrease significantly. As of April 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China decreased slightly. The import inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, the pulp liquidity is still relatively loose, the demand is average, and the fundamentals are generally weak. The short - term trend is greatly affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price is running weakly. Although the ex - factory price has decreased, the arrival volume in April is still expected to be high. The port delivery volume increased slightly, but the total volume is still low, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected. The port log inventory decreased, but there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the futures price will run weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]