| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日大连豆粕期货继续震荡下行。中美双方将于下周在瑞典斯德哥尔摩会面，第三轮会谈可能会有结果，结束关税战。天气上 未来两周，美豆主产区降雨略高于常值。温度上中部和东南部地区预计将出现连续几天的高温天气、而后再经历一个降温过 程，为新季美豆带来了些许不确定性。目前中美贸易上的不确定性因素依旧较多，目前已进入天气交易时间窗口， ...

芝加哥小麦价格连续第二天上涨，因世界两大粮食出口国俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的冲突，以及对主要生产 国天气状况的担忧。乌克兰周末对俄罗斯发动了猛烈攻击，这使得停火希望进一步破灭，并威胁到黑海 地区粮食供应的畅通。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent sale of 280,000 tons of old crop soybeans from the United States, which has met expectations in the market [1] - It highlights the pressure from Brazil's soybean production, which is expected to impact future pricing due to weather risks [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Performance - The sale of 280,000 tons of old crop soybeans from the U.S. is described as "just meeting the target," indicating a stable demand in the market [1] - This sale reflects the current market dynamics and the competitive landscape with Brazilian soybeans [1] Group 2: Production and Weather Risks - Brazil's soybean production is described as being at a high level, which could overshadow U.S. sales [1] - Weather conditions are identified as a potential dominant factor influencing future soybean prices, suggesting volatility in the market [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ Indicating a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆★ Suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ Representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability, recommending a wait - and - see approach [1] - Apple: Not explicitly rated in a star system in the given content [1] - Logs: Not explicitly rated in a star system in the given content [1] - Natural Rubber: Not explicitly rated in a star system in the given content [1] - 20 -号 Rubber: ☆☆☆ Implying a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ Indicating a short - term balanced state with poor operability, recommending a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as tariff policies, weather, and raw material supply. It is recommended to wait and see for most commodities, and for apples, it is advised to hold existing long positions or wait and see [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded significantly due to the US suspending tariff collection on most countries for 90 days and reducing reciprocal tariffs to 10%. Domestic cotton spot trading declined. Spinning mills' inventory of pure cotton yarn is not high, and actual transactions are scarce. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is greatly affected by tariffs, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to correct. Crude oil's continuous decline is negative for US sugar. The trading focus of US sugar will shift to Brazil's sugar supply in the medium - and long - term. The high sugar - ethanol ratio in Brazil is negative for sugar. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuates. The trading focus will shift to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales are good, and imports have decreased significantly, but the downward trend of US sugar and sufficient domestic supply limit the upside of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. The northwest region is gradually entering the flowering period, and there is a cooling process this weekend, increasing weather risks. However, it is expected that the impact on apple blossoms will be small. It is recommended to hold existing long positions or wait and see [4] 20 -号 Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Due to the US suspending tariff collection on most countries for 90 days, RU and NRBR both rose sharply. The global natural rubber supply is in an increasing period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate decreased last week. The domestic tire operating rate continued to decline, and the inventory pressure of finished products remains. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased, while the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased. The rubber market is driven by policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to take advantage of the rebound and hold cross - variety positions [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp rebounded significantly. The import from the US may decrease significantly. As of April 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China decreased slightly. The import inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, the pulp liquidity is still relatively loose, the demand is average, and the fundamentals are generally weak. The short - term trend is greatly affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price is running weakly. Although the ex - factory price has decreased, the arrival volume in April is still expected to be high. The port delivery volume increased slightly, but the total volume is still low, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected. The port log inventory decreased, but there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the futures price will run weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]