Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the US dollar is suppressing gold prices, with the market awaiting the impact of non-farm payroll data [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Data and Trends - Recent data including ADP, unemployment claims, and PCE have been favorable for the dollar and unfavorable for gold, contributing to the dollar's significant rise this year, nearing the 100 mark [3][4] - Gold and silver have been under pressure, failing to establish a strong upward trend despite attempts at rebounds [3][4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to influence the relationship between the dollar and gold, with a focus on whether a negative correlation will emerge [3][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with key resistance levels at 3315 and 3345, and support levels at 3280 and 3260 [4][5] - The market anticipates a range-bound movement for gold before the non-farm data release, with a trading range set between 3280 and 3315 [5] - The previous non-farm payroll figure was 147,000, with a forecast of 110,000, suggesting that if actual data aligns closely with predictions, the impact on gold may be limited [5] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices have shown a continuation of weak trends, with recent fluctuations failing to establish a clear upward trajectory [5] - The Shanghai gold contract is currently trading around 772, with a medium-term bullish outlook targeting 790 [5] - The silver market is also under pressure, with a critical support level at 36, and potential for a rebound if this level holds [6] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil has successfully risen to 70, with previous long positions yielding significant profits [6] - The overall bullish trend in oil remains intact, with potential upward targets set at 72 or higher [6] - Domestic fuel oil has shown an upward trend, with a focus on maintaining positions above 3000 [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Multiple data releases are expected to impact gold prices, with unemployment claims and GDP likely to be bearish, while PCE data may provide bullish support [1] - Recent trading showed gold prices dropping significantly, breaking key support levels, with a notable decline to 3295 [3] - The current market is characterized by a "Bollinger Band squeeze," indicating potential for a directional breakout [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3310, with a target of 3330-3350 [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver is at a critical juncture around 36 USD, with technical indicators showing potential for volatility [6] - Key resistance is identified at 37.291 USD, with a breakthrough potentially leading towards 38 USD [6] - Suggested trading strategy involves buying on dips between 35.90-35.80 USD, with a target of 36.30-36.50 USD [6] Group 3: Market Influences - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain uncertain, while the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts adds complexity to the market [4] - A weakening dollar and rising inflation expectations may provide support for gold prices [1] - The performance of gold and silver is closely tied to economic data releases and geopolitical developments [1][4]

Group 1 - The market has seen fluctuations in gold prices, with a recent peak at 3403 and a subsequent drop to 3340, aligning with expectations of a bullish trend followed by a pullback [2][4] - Silver prices have also surged, reaching a high of 36, with a critical resistance level identified at 36.5, suggesting a cautious approach to new positions [2][6] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is anticipated to significantly influence gold and silver market performance, with a focus on the potential for further price movements [5][6] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have shown upward movement, with Shanghai gold reaching a high of 793 and a closing price of 786, indicating a similar trend of fluctuations [6] - The international silver market has demonstrated strong upward momentum, with current prices around 35.8, and a potential peak at 36.5, suggesting a cautious trading strategy [6][7] - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with support at 60 and a target of 64, indicating potential for further upward movement if the resistance is broken [7][8]

Market Environment - The market environment is complex with significant volatility, making accurate predictions difficult, leading to a recommendation for reduced trading and increased observation [2] - The extreme market conditions from last week are expected to stabilize, returning to a more technical trading environment [2] Economic Indicators - This week is significant due to the non-farm payroll data, trade tariffs, geopolitical changes, and Federal Reserve policies, alongside unemployment claims data [2] Gold Market Analysis - The dollar has shown a slight rebound after forming a bottom, which is expected to support an increase in gold prices [3] - Despite a drop from 3500 to 3260, the long-term trend for gold remains bullish, with potential targets of 3420, 3500, and possibly breaking above 3500 [3] - Current gold trading is characterized by low-level fluctuations, with key resistance at 3370; a break above this level could lead to significant upward movement [4] Silver Market Analysis - The international silver market has shown a strong trend, with expectations of reaching around 34, while maintaining support at 32 [4] - Domestic silver is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the 8400/8150 range for potential trading opportunities [5] Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market is currently in a weak range, with a trading range of 64.5 to 61.5; breaking this range could lead to a more definitive trend [5] - Fuel oil has also been in a consolidation phase, with potential for upward movement if it can establish a solid base [5]