山海：黄金保持北伐计划，同时等待非农有效冲击！ 国内金上个交易日走出了预期的上涨，沪金（2606合约）最高在1010，融通金最高在1000，前面讲过，本周的短线布局会在非农数据之前获利出局，因此， 本周的第二波沪金1002多单，融通金993多单已经收割一波利润，那么接下来就空仓观望，等待非农数据影响。保持原则不变，国内金依旧看涨，依旧是等 待回落做多，本周沪金最低在998，融通金最低在990，非农数据回落到这两个支撑依旧是可以顺势做多看涨。未来国内金还有较大的上涨空间。 白银这波下跌估计又坑了不少人，这波调整力度过大，最低都跌至74，虽然山海前面讲过回落做多，但也提示过，暂时白银的风险很大，回落的空间和力度 不太好预测，需要边做边看，周四在确定74止跌后，给出了74.5做多看涨，虽然有部分利润，但前最高在77，不过目前还是在反弹走势中，并没有大涨，但 只要趋势不变，止跌明显，就是做多看涨的机会，所以，现在就是一个坚持多，继续看涨的过程，这个周期先看82，再看更高的空间。 国内银这波同步走出了下跌空间，融通银下跌至17.9附近，沪银（2606合约）下跌到17800附近，经过周四的反弹，融通银目前上涨至18.5， ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月7日，今日21：15，美国自动数据处理公司将公布12月ADP就业人数变动，该数据被业界称为小非 农，对周五的非农就业报告具有前瞻作用。前值为-3.2万人，显著下降，预期值4.7万人，将由负转正， 且增量可观。 公布值符合预期的话，意味着美国劳动力市场在显著萎缩后有复苏迹象，将会降低1月份美联储降息25 基点的概率，利多美元指数。但是，单月的数据好转并不能彻底扭转市场的悲观预期，美国劳动力市场 的疲软状态仍将施压美联储。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ▲ATFX图 历史数据看，过去一年，小非农ADP数据呈现出逐渐走低的典型特征。2024年12月至2025年4月，ADP 数据处于6万~18.6万的区间内，表现正常。2025年5月份开始，ADP数据逐月下降，6月、8月、9月、11 月出现罕见且集中的负值状态，美国劳动力市场面临重大危机。 危机的原因，主流观点认为，与特朗普的激进移民政策、人工智能替代作用以及经济政策不明朗导致企 业招聘意愿降低相关。截至目前，上述不利因素仍在发挥作用，中期内美国劳动力市场大概率延续弱势 格局。 周五将公布美国12月非农就业报告，这是美国就业市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has not negatively impacted the dollar, which has risen, leading to declines in gold and silver prices. The focus is now on the upcoming ADP employment data rather than the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision or the government shutdown [2][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices fell from around 4000 to a low of 3930, indicating a continuation of the previous downward trend. The market sentiment is cautious, with concerns about further declines [2][4]. - The current outlook for gold is characterized by a low-level consolidation rather than a clear bullish or bearish trend. The technical indicators suggest a potential for continued weakness, with the daily chart showing a bearish trend below the Bollinger middle band [4]. - A potential rebound is anticipated if gold can stabilize above 3975, with targets set at 4000 and 4050. Conversely, if it breaks below 3930, further declines to 3900 or 3880 may occur [5]. Silver Market Analysis - Domestic silver prices also experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai gold reaching a low of 907. The recommendation is to avoid chasing long positions and instead consider buying around 915 for Shanghai gold and 905 for domestic silver [5]. - International silver prices fell but remained around 47.2. A potential rebound is possible if prices can stabilize above 48, with targets set at 49.5 [5]. Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have shown minor fluctuations, maintaining around 60. The bullish sentiment remains, with a focus on whether the price can break above last week's high of 63, which could lead to a target of 66 [6]. - Domestic fuel oil prices have remained stable, with a potential upward target of 3000 if bullish momentum continues. If not, adjustments may occur, with support seen around 2700 [6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is around $3340 per ounce, with a significant increase of 1.1% on the previous day, closing at $3338.70 per ounce after a rise of $35.99 [1] - The market is anticipating the ADP employment data, which is expected to influence gold prices significantly [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that more economic data is needed before initiating monetary easing, but did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, which could enhance gold's appeal as it does not yield interest [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent upward trend in gold prices suggests a potential short-selling opportunity, as the market has seen a significant number of short positions being liquidated [2] - The critical resistance level for gold is identified at $3358, while a support level is noted at $3326, with a potential downward movement towards $3300 if the support is breached [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Current oil prices are stable, with WTI at $65.42 per barrel and Brent at $67.09 per barrel, reflecting a cautious balance among multiple market factors [5] - The market is closely monitoring OPEC+ supply plans and U.S. economic data, which are pivotal in shaping oil price movements [5] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 and potential Fed rate cuts are key variables that could influence future oil prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil remains bullish, with a potential upward test towards $78, although short-term momentum indicators suggest a high-level consolidation phase [6] - The recommended trading strategy for oil includes buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at $68.0-$69.0 and support levels at $64.5-$63.5 [6]

Group 1 - The market has seen fluctuations in gold prices, with a recent peak at 3403 and a subsequent drop to 3340, aligning with expectations of a bullish trend followed by a pullback [2][4] - Silver prices have also surged, reaching a high of 36, with a critical resistance level identified at 36.5, suggesting a cautious approach to new positions [2][6] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is anticipated to significantly influence gold and silver market performance, with a focus on the potential for further price movements [5][6] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have shown upward movement, with Shanghai gold reaching a high of 793 and a closing price of 786, indicating a similar trend of fluctuations [6] - The international silver market has demonstrated strong upward momentum, with current prices around 35.8, and a potential peak at 36.5, suggesting a cautious trading strategy [6][7] - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with support at 60 and a target of 64, indicating potential for further upward movement if the resistance is broken [7][8]

Core Insights - Gold prices are experiencing fluctuations and are on an upward trend, raising questions about when a breakthrough will occur [1] - The release of the ADP non-farm employment data has been completed, leading to speculation on its impact on market trends [1] Group 1 - Gold prices are currently in a state of volatility, indicating potential for future movement [1] - The market is closely monitoring the implications of the recently published ADP data on gold prices [1]