产能去化预期支撑 鸡蛋延续下跌后反弹 本周三，此前持续下跌的鸡蛋期货出现明显反弹。这一走势变化主要源于市场对未来产能去化的乐观预 期。在现货价格持续疲软的影响下，鸡蛋期货近月合约此前延续下行趋势。但随着近月合约价格不断走 低，市场情绪出现转变。由于远月合约此前表现相对较强，因此在本轮反弹中，其幅度小于近月合约。 股期联动：金银比持续收窄 白银LOF场内溢价 美联储降息预期叠加地缘避险情绪推升，金银价格延续走强，且白银表现强于黄金。市场投资者对未来 白银价格存在看涨预期，买盘推动白银场内LOF基金出现较大溢价引发市场关注。随着套利盘对场内基 金形成一定抛压，周四，白银LOF跌停。 本周受多重因素影响，大宗商品市场呈现分化走势。贵金属板块在美联储降息预期和地缘避险情绪的双 重推动下延续强势，其中白银表现尤为突出。有色板块方面，沪铜保持上涨趋势，沪铝维持高位震荡格 局，而沪锌则在周内呈现冲高回落态势。农产品板块方面，豆粕价格呈现震荡偏强走势，鸡蛋在经历低 位后出现反弹，玉米价格震荡格局，而生猪价格则出现小幅反弹。 基本面边际或将转弱 碳酸锂承压回调 第四季度电池排产表现偏强，强现实和强预期提振碳酸锂价格延续上涨。周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - The overall situation of the commodity futures agricultural products sector is under pressure, with most varieties showing a weak - oscillating trend [5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly, with a reference view of oscillating weakly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and soybean meal inventory is high. The high oil mill operating rate weakens cost support. The market doubts China's ability to complete the 12 - million - ton US soybean procurement target by the end of the year, and the strong expected South American soybean harvest weakens the cost support of US soybean futures for domestic soybeans. There are dual pressures of supply surplus and weak demand. Although the arbitrage of buying oil and selling meal provides temporary support, the key support at 3000 yuan/ton is crucial, and if broken, the downside space will open [5] For Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly, with a reference view of oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: Malaysian palm oil futures are dragged down by external edible oil markets and volatile crude oil prices. Weak export data and the expected inventory build - up in November add short - term inventory pressure. Its trend is closely linked to US soybean oil and the international oil and fat sector, and the biodiesel policy is a key variable [7] For Other Varieties (Brief Summary) - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Influenced by US soybean cost support, US biodiesel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6] - **Palm 2601**: Affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, major producers' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

Summary of Rubber Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The rubber processing profit in 2025 is under pressure due to high raw material prices and weak downstream demand, leading Thai processing plants to increase raw material purchase prices. Small private enterprises struggle to maintain inventory due to cash flow and financing cost issues [1][2][9] - Tire manufacturers are affected by EU anti-subsidy and anti-dumping policies, resulting in reduced profits. However, leading companies still show profitability, with a noticeable increase in procurement pace in the second half of the year due to low natural rubber inventory [1][3] - Overseas market demand remains weak, with a brief replenishment period from late September to the National Day holiday. Negotiations for 2026 long-term contracts are ongoing, with expected quantities and prices similar to 2025 [1][4] Key Points on Raw Material Prices - Thai raw material prices are expected to remain high due to supply-demand dynamics, with new production lines increasing demand but no significant supply increase anticipated for 2026 [1][5] - The current price of Thai rubber is around 55 THB, with expectations of limited improvement in 2026 due to persistent supply-demand contradictions [5][9] Market Dynamics and Challenges - The disappearance of the normal arbitrage position in 2025 and the large scale of reverse arbitrage positions have pressured the dollar-denominated product prices, leading to a forecasted decrease in import volumes in Q4 [1][6] - The impact of U.S. tariffs is significant, with profits for all-steel tires down by over 50%, affecting pricing in other regions and increasing costs in the supply chain [1][7][8] - The processing plants are currently operating at 60-70% capacity utilization, with many facing losses due to high raw material prices and weak downstream demand [1][10][22] Inventory and Production Insights - Inventory levels in 2025 are lower than in previous years due to cash flow challenges and high financing costs, with many small private enterprises unable to maintain normal inventory levels [2][19] - The overall inventory situation is tight, with no significant replenishment willingness from upstream farmers or processing plants, as they prioritize cash flow [24][27] Regional Insights - In Indonesia, some factories have closed due to rising raw material prices leading to sales losses, and similar situations are observed in Thailand and Africa [11][25] - African rubber processing plants have seen a decrease in profit per ton by $100-200, with supply growth lagging behind demand growth [11] Future Outlook - The rubber processing industry is expected to face challenges in 2026, with both all-steel and semi-steel sectors likely to encounter difficulties [8][9] - The current high raw material prices are not expected to incentivize significant increases in production, as farmers are already motivated to tap into rubber production due to limited alternative income sources [17][18] Conclusion - The rubber industry is navigating a complex landscape characterized by high raw material prices, regulatory challenges, and fluctuating demand. The outlook for 2026 remains cautious, with potential supply shortages looming if current trends continue.