22V 研究公司首席市场策略师丹尼斯・德布许尔（Dennis Debusschere）表示："市场对人工智能回报的 不确定性，以及利率上行风险，可能会限制年末股市的反弹空间。" 尽管历史表现强烈预示美股年末会出现反弹，但投资者当前面临的环境错综复杂：经济增长放缓、美国 科技巨头在人工智能领域投入巨资，且美联储内部对未来降息节奏存在分歧。 与此同时，在人工智能领域，过高的估值、循环融资交易，以及对增长的极高预期，已引发市场对潜在 泡沫的担忧，加剧了投资者的谨慎情绪。 来源：环球市场播报 索卢斯另类资产管理公司（Solus Alternative Asset Management LP）首席经济学家兼策略师丹・格林豪 斯（Dan Greenhaus）表示："季节性因素向来是投资者的朋友，但重要的是要记住，它并非绝对规 律。" 几周前，由于市场对人工智能相关股票的需求持续旺盛、企业盈利表现稳健，且美股历来存在年末季节 性上涨规律，美国股市年末反弹似乎已成定局。但如今，华尔街对此不再那么确定。 周二上午 10 点 26 分，标普 500 指数下跌 0.2%，未能延续此前两日的反弹势头 —— 此前部分美联储官 员曾表示 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Protein Meal**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate [8] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [11] - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12] - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the long - term, and run in the 5500 - 5750 range in the short - term [14] - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate [15] - **Double - Glue Paper**: Expected to fluctuate [16] - **Logs**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by the relatively bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak, and it may continue to adjust. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. - **Protein Meal**: The market has both long and short factors, and the market will continue to fluctuate narrowly. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the fourth quarter. There is a short - term tight supply, and a short - term long - term long pattern is expected [7]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of "anti - involution" boosts the market. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the cycle is still under supply pressure. In the long - term, if the capacity - reduction policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually weakened. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the decline, it stabilizes, and there will still be fluctuations in the short - term. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It returns to the fluctuating trend. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuates within the range. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, the sugar price has a downward driving force due to the expected supply surplus in the new season. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. It is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation between 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to the limited expected decline in US soybean yield per unit, combined with the impact of oil - meal arbitrage, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday. The MPOB report is bearish, and domestic oils and fats fluctuated and fell yesterday. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The MPOB report on palm oil is bearish, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly falling but still high year - on - year [6]. - **Outlook**: Affected by the bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak and may continue to adjust [6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the Fed's rate cut in September is almost certain. There are factors such as the possible occurrence of La Nina and the expected increase in Brazil's soybean exports. Domestically, the state reserve plans to sell 22,500 tons of imported soybeans, and the soybean import volume is large. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [6]. - **Outlook**: Both domestic and international markets will continue to fluctuate within the range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand has a phased increase. With the approaching of the new grain listing, the selling pressure will gradually appear in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies when the new grain is concentratedly listed. Consider reverse arbitrage [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **Logic**: The Ministry of Agriculture plans to hold a symposium on hog production capacity regulation enterprises on September 16. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. In the long - term, the "anti - involution" policy may drive the price to strengthen in 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Logic**: The rubber market stabilizes after a sharp decline. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and there are many speculative themes. The supply increase may be postponed, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm recovers after the price decline [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR market stabilizes after a large decline and returns to the fluctuating trend. It follows the natural rubber market, and the cost of raw material butadiene provides support. The supply and demand fundamentals support the market to fluctuate in a narrow range [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price of butadiene may rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The domestic cotton market has low inventory and marginal improvement in demand. The new cotton commercial inventory is tight, and the demand is improving but the upward driving force is insufficient. Wait for the new cotton purchase price to give direction [12]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate in the short - term. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: In the new season, although the drought in Brazil reduces the sugarcane yield, the sugar production is expected to increase due to the high sugar - making ratio. The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase. The domestic supply marginally increases, and the sugar price has a downward driving force [14]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price may decline. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. The supply and demand change little, and it may be due to emotional speculation. The needle - broadleaf pattern is differentiated, and the price may continue to decline [15]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Logic**: The fundamentals are bearish, with over - supply in the industry, declining demand, and high inventory. The listing price is neutral to low, and consider range operation between 4000 - 4500. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage in the early stage of listing [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Logic**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. - **Outlook**: The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but gives the following ratings for each variety: - Oils and fats: Oscillating strongly [5] - Protein meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn and starch: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Natural rubber: Oscillating strongly [10] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillating strongly [12] - Cotton: Oscillating strongly [13] - Sugar: Oscillating [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating weakly [21] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall macro - environment shows a strong market expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, with the US dollar weakening and the crude oil price oscillating strongly due to the uncertainty of Russia - Ukraine negotiations. Different agricultural products have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, rubber prices are supported by cost and enter the seasonal rising period, while corn prices are under pressure due to supply and demand factors [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Quotes and Views - **Oils and Fats** - **View**: The expected monthly increase in Malaysian palm oil production in August led to an oscillating consolidation of oil prices yesterday. - **Logic**: US government decisions on bio - diesel exemptions, strong US soybean exports, macro - environment factors (Fed rate - cut expectations, dollar weakness, and oil price trends), and industry - specific factors such as US soybean yield expectations and the situation of Malaysian palm oil production and exports all affect the oil market [5]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, there is a high probability of continued strong oscillation [5]. - **Protein Meal** - **View**: Point - price orders support the high - level oscillation of the market. - **Logic**: International factors include US soybean yield estimates, weather conditions, and Brazilian soybean exports; domestic factors involve inventory pressure, supply gaps, and downstream demand [6]. - **Outlook**: The external market is expected to make up for losses and be stronger than the domestic market. The term structure of Dalian soybean meal futures may shift from carry to back. The spot basis may bottom out and rebound, and the market will move within a range [6]. - **Corn and Starch** - **View**: The sentiment is weak, and both the spot and futures markets maintain a weak trend. - **Logic**: Supply - side factors include increased grain sales in the trading link and new - crop production conditions; demand - side factors involve low profits in downstream industries [7]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices will oscillate weakly; in the long term, there is a low - absorption idea for the far - month contracts [8]. - **Live Pigs** - **View**: State reserves purchasing affects sentiment, and the futures market rebounds slightly. - **Logic**: Supply is abundant in the short, medium, and long terms, but demand may increase with the cooling of the weather. State reserves purchasing affects market sentiment [8]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are supported by supply - side capacity - reduction expectations [8]. - **Natural Rubber** - **View**: Rubber prices return to an oscillating and strong trend. - **Logic**: Driven by the overall strength of commodities due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations and weather - related speculation. The short - term fundamentals support the price [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber** - **View**: The market oscillates strongly. - **Logic**: It follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tight supply of raw material butadiene [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the butadiene price may rise slightly, and the market will oscillate strongly [12]. - **Cotton** - **View**: The quota is announced, and cotton prices increase in volume and rebound. - **Logic**: Low commercial inventory, limited impact of the import quota on supply, improving downstream demand, and higher expected purchase prices of ginning mills support the price. New - crop production may put pressure on prices [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price range is 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. - **Sugar** - **View**: Sugar prices oscillate within a range. - **Logic**: In the international market, Brazilian sugar production is in an upward phase; in the domestic market, the increase in imports affects the price. However, the short - term downward space is limited [15]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, prices may oscillate weakly; in the short term, they will move within the range of 5,600 - 5,900 yuan/ton [15]. - **Pulp** - **View**: There are few changes, and the market moves within a range. - **Logic**: There are both positive and negative factors in the pulp market, such as the warming of the broad - leaf pulp market and the over - supply of paper products [18]. - **Outlook**: The futures market will oscillate, and the main 11 - contract is expected to move within the range of 5,100 - 5,500 [18]. - **Logs** - **View**: The far - month contracts can be bought at low prices within the range. - **Logic**: The fundamentals have improved marginally since July, with factors such as increased valuation and reduced supply pressure, but there are also delivery - related pressures [21]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate weakly, and the 11 - contract can be bought at low prices within the range of 790 - 840 [21]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report only lists the names of various varieties such as oils and fats, corn, live pigs, etc., without specific data monitoring content [23][53][73]. 3. Rating Standards - The rating standards include strong, oscillating strongly, oscillating, oscillating weakly, and weakly, with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method provided [170]. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) show different trends. For example, the agricultural products index increased by 0.21% on the day, decreased by 0.56% in the past 5 days, decreased by 0.42% in the past month, and increased by 2.78% since the beginning of the year [172][174].