Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the macro environment improved, and copper prices rose with increasing positions. Last week, copper prices first declined and then rebounded, with the trading volume increasing as prices rose. High copper prices have suppressed consumption, leading to a continuous weakening of the basis and monthly spreads, with a clear pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in futures prices. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at $0/ton and $0/lb. In the short term, macro factors are driving copper prices up, with strong upward momentum, and the industry is following passively. Keep an eye on the pressure at the $12,000 mark for LME copper and the RMB 95,000 mark for SHFE copper. [5] - Aluminum: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the macro environment improved, and aluminum prices rose with increasing positions. Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, similar to copper. After the interest rate hike on Friday, the market sentiment improved, and aluminum prices increased with positions, recovering the losses of the week. As aluminum prices rise, downstream sentiment is turning more cautious. The substitution of aluminum for copper in the home appliance industry is expected to increase, giving a strong consumption outlook for aluminum, which may also make long - term aluminum prices stronger than near - term ones. Technically, keep an eye on the high - level pressure in early December. [6] Group 3: Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1 Macro Factors - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike last Friday, it was a relief for the US dollar, and short - term market liquidity increased. The US dollar index and copper prices rebounded simultaneously. [10] 2 Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices first declined and then rebounded, and the trading volume increased as prices rose. High copper prices have suppressed consumption, leading to a continuous weakening of the basis and monthly spreads, with a clear pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in futures prices. [5] 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, copper ore port inventories continued to rise from a low level and were approaching the same level as previous years. On December 19, Mysteel's copper ore port inventory was 680,000 tons, a weekly increase of 16,000 tons. The short - term increase in port inventories has slowed down, and the overall level is still at a low level compared to previous years. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at $0/ton and $0/lb. [25] 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 18, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 174,500 tons, a weekly increase of 3,300 tons, and the COMEX + LME inventory was 623,800 tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons. Short - term copper price increases have significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventories. However, there has been a clear divergence in domestic and overseas inventories since December, which may be due to stronger domestic industrial demand and overseas weakness, or may be digested through exports. [27] 2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - In November, the capacity utilization rate of copper products rebounded month - on - month, indicating that downstream acceptance increased after copper prices reached a high and then declined in November. As copper prices broke through upwards at the end of November, it is expected that downstream sentiment will turn more cautious again, and the capacity utilization rate in December may decline significantly. SMM predicts that the total output of the copper rod industry in December will decrease by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of the operating rate, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points. [29] 3 Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, similar to copper. After the interest rate hike on Friday, the market sentiment improved, and aluminum prices increased with positions, recovering the losses of the week. As aluminum prices rise, downstream sentiment is turning more cautious, and the spot discounts of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum remain weak. [6] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 12, the aluminum ore port inventory was 26.08 million tons, a decrease of 355,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.69 million tons compared to the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina showed signs of stabilizing after fluctuations but remained weak overall. The improvement in the macro environment has stabilized it, but the weak industrial fundamentals have led to its weak performance. The strong aluminum prices and weak alumina prices have widened the profit margins of electrolytic aluminum plants. [44][45] 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 18, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 561,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week; the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 526,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week. Global electrolytic aluminum inventories are in a state of slow reduction at a low level, which provides strong industrial support for aluminum prices. [48] 3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods increased, indicating a recovery in downstream demand and a strong willingness of the downstream industry to replenish inventories at a low level. On December 18, the aluminum rod inventory was 100,700 tons, an increase of 14,200 tons from the previous week. The slight increase in aluminum rod inventory last week corresponded to the increase in processing fees, as aluminum rod production enterprises replenished inventories at a low price. [52][54] 4 Conclusion - Copper: Last week, copper prices first declined and then rebounded, and the trading volume increased as prices rose. In the short term, macro factors are driving copper prices up, with strong upward momentum, and the industry is following passively. Keep an eye on the pressure at the $12,000 mark for LME copper and the RMB 95,000 mark for SHFE copper. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, similar to copper. The substitution of aluminum for copper in the home appliance industry is expected to increase, giving a strong consumption outlook for aluminum, which may also make long - term aluminum prices stronger than near - term ones. Technically, keep an eye on the high - level pressure in early December. [58]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 宏观回暖，利好有色 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 12 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 核心观点 铜：宏观向好，产业将进入旺季，预计铜价偏强运行 上周铜价冲高回落，整体震荡上行。宏观层面，当地时间 8 月 15 日美俄总统会晤，会后双方对会晤评价积极，美俄关系向好，市场风 险偏好或持续上升。此外，美联储降息预期升温，预计 9 月将开启降 息。产业层面，铜矿港口库存处于往年低位，但 TC 加工费有所回 升，上游趋于边际宽松；国内电解铜库存低位持稳，海外库存高位累 库。宏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on all imported copper starting from August 1st, causing pressure on both Shanghai and London copper prices. Last week, Shanghai copper witnessed a significant decline with reduced positions and lower market attention. The market is concerned about the upcoming tariff implementation, which may lead to a closure of the US import window and a notable drop in US imports. As a result, supply in non - US regions may increase, causing the prices of London and Shanghai copper to fall. The spot premium of London and Shanghai copper decreased significantly last week, indicating a relief in the shortage of spot copper. In the short term, due to the tariff impact, copper prices have dropped to the June price center. With positive domestic macro - expectations, a general rise in commodities and the stock market, and strong industrial support, Shanghai copper may receive strong support, and the LME import loss is narrowing rapidly. Technically, both Shanghai and London copper have strong support at the June price center [3][60]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded to previous highs, and the trading volume also increased, showing strong performance in the non - ferrous metals sector. The improvement in the domestic macro - environment has largely boosted aluminum prices, as commodities and the stock market generally rose last week, especially the black metal sector. In the industry, as the prices of alumina and coal continue to rebound, the cost of electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, and the profit margin at the high level has declined. The downstream is in the off - season of consumption, and combined with the rising aluminum prices, the destocking of electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, and the inventory of aluminum rods at a low level has continued to rise, which has a certain drag on aluminum prices. With a good domestic macro - atmosphere, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Local time on July 12th, US President Trump announced on the social media platform "Truth Social" that starting from August 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Volume - Price Trends - No specific text description of trends, but figures show copper futures prices, Shanghai - London ratio, 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount seasonality, Shanghai copper positions, COMEX non - commercial long net positions, etc [10][11][13][14]. 3.2.2 Continuous Decline in Copper Ore Processing Fees - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both the tight supply of copper ore and the over - capacity of smelting. The port inventory of domestic copper ore is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply of domestic ore and that the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [24]. 3.2.3 Slowing Down of Electrolytic Copper Destocking - The destocking of domestic and overseas electrolytic copper has slowed down, as shown by the data of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [28][29]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is presented, including copper rods, tubes, bars, and strips [31][32]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Volume - Price Trends - No specific text description of trends, but figures show aluminum prices, Shanghai - London ratio, London aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum monthly spread, etc [33][34][38][40]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - Figures show the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina [46][49]. 3.3.3 Slowing Down of Electrolytic Aluminum Destocking - The destocking of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, as shown by the data of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [50][51]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented [53][57][58]. 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the impact of the US copper tariff on copper prices and the influence of domestic macro - environment and industrial factors on aluminum prices [60].

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观回暖，有色普涨 核心观点 沪铜 今日午后铜价增仓上行明显，7-8 月差持续走弱。宏观层面，伊 朗和以色列停战，市场风险偏好回暖，有色普涨。产业层面，本周 一产业补库意愿上升。此外，近期海外伦铜升水明显走强，这说明 了海外电解铜现货紧张。国内进口亏损进一步扩大。短期地缘政治 出现明显缓和，市场风险偏好明显回暖，预计铜价持续上行，关注 7.9 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价震荡上行，持仓量小幅上升。宏观层面，伊朗和以色列 停战，市场风险 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The better - than - expected result of the China - US negotiation led to a significant drop in tariffs, which repaired market sentiment and drove the rebound of hot - rolled coils. This week, the demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the demand for building materials, cold - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates all rose, with inventory continuing to decline. The better - than - expected result of the China - US trade negotiation falsified the pessimistic expectation on the export side, and the market re - examined the supply - demand situation and expectations, resulting in a short - term corrective rebound. However, from the perspective of the steel supply - demand situation, future demand still has great uncertainty, and hot - rolled coils face significant pressure. In terms of trends, there is a short - term rebound but significant resistance above. The operating strategy is to participate in the short - term [10][52]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Trend Review - The better - than - expected result of the China - US negotiation led to a significant drop in tariffs, which repaired market sentiment and drove the rebound of hot - rolled coils [10]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Hot - rolled coil basis**: The 01 basis is 28, the 05 basis is 38, and the 10 basis is 40 [17]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Hot - rolled coil profit**: The 01 contract's on - disk profit is 430, the 05 contract's on - disk profit is 212, the 10 contract's on - disk profit is 360, and the production profit is 191 [31]. - **Output**: The hot - rolled coil output is 311.98, the cold - rolled coil output is 87.86, the rebar output is 226.53, and the output of the five major steel products is 868.35 [33]. - **Inventory**: The hot - rolled coil inventory is 347.57, the cold - rolled coil inventory is 169.2, the rebar inventory is 619.87, and the inventory of the five major steel products is 1430.66 [38]. - **Export**: Exports remain strong [47]. 4. Future Outlook - The hot - rolled coil market shows a short - term rebound but faces significant resistance above. The operating strategy is to participate in the short - term [52].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 低库存下，宏观回暖或推升有色 核心观点 铜：宏观回暖，产业低库存，铜价或持续走强 上周沪铜主力期价整体在 7.7-7.8 万区间震荡，周中一度突破 7.8 万关口，随后冲高回落。5 月 8 日 Mysteel 数据显示，电解铜社 会库存为 12.64 万吨，较去年同期下降 27.66 万吨。产业低库存给予 铜价支撑，月差持续走强。宏观层面，国内降准降息等宏观政策刺 激，海外中美在瑞达成重要共识。预计铜价在宏观和产业利好共振之 下将向上突破，关注 7.9-8 万关口压力。此外，库存外高内低或使期 价表现内强外弱 ...