软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 9 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，ICE 美棉上涨 0.1%，报收 66.74 美分/磅，CF601 环比持平，报收 13835 元/ | | | | 吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 2390 手至 50.25 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价约 15186 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 24 元/吨，全国棉花市场均价 15249 元/吨，较前一日下跌 | | | | 37 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期市场关注重心更多在于宏观层面，美国通胀数据降 | | | | 温，目前 9 月降息概率仍接近 100%，美元指数震荡偏弱，对美棉价格有一定支撑。 | | | | 此外关注本周六凌晨即将公布的 USDA9 月报。国内市场方面，郑棉期价重心低位 | 低位震 | | 棉花 | 窄幅震荡，近期整体走势偏弱。我们认为即将大量上市的新棉对供应端的压力是 | | | | 影响近期棉价走势的主要因素之一。此外，近期需求端及服装出口面临的压力也 | 荡 | | | 是影响因素之一。但我们认为下方的空间有限 ...

软商品日报 二、日度数据监测 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 9 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.27%，报收 66.39 美分/磅，CF601 环比下降 0.68%，报收 13835 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比上涨 2364 手至 50.77 万手，新疆地区棉花市场价约 15300 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 50 元/吨，全国棉花市场均价 15401 元/吨，较前一日下跌 | | | | 27 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期市场关注重心更多在于宏观层面，9 月降息概率接 | | | | 近 100%，CME FedWatch Tool 工具显示，预计 9 月降息 50BP 概率超过 10%，美 | 低位震 | | 棉花 | 元指数偏弱震荡，对美棉价格有一定支撑。基本面关注本周六凌晨即将发布的 | | | | USDA9 月报。国内市场方面，近期郑棉期价重心略有下移。我们认为有以下几方 | 荡 | | | 面因素影响，一是国内新棉零星上市，市场担忧本年度新棉丰产格局下，在集中 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper showed a slight downward oscillation with a slight increase in open interest. Recently, copper prices have been weak, but the amplitude has been narrowing, and open interest has stabilized. At the macro - level, the domestic commodity atmosphere has cooled, and overseas risk appetite has declined. At the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic copper began to decline on Thursday. As the peak season approaches, industrial support may continue to strengthen. In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum showed a strong oscillation with an increase in open interest. At the macro - level, the domestic commodity atmosphere has cooled. At the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods continued to decline slowly. As the peak season approaches, industrial support for aluminum prices has increased. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel increased in position and declined, with the main contract price breaking through the 120,000 - yuan mark. At the macro - level, the bullish atmosphere in the domestic market has cooled. At the industrial level, high domestic nickel ore and nickel inventories keep the nickel fundamentals weak. In the short term, with the cooling of the macro - atmosphere and weak fundamentals, the nickel price has broken through the 120,000 - yuan mark, and the futures price is expected to continue its decline [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 21, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 129,700 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to the 14th and 14,500 tons compared to the 18th. The procurement and sales sentiment in the Shanghai area has improved. Looking ahead to tomorrow, domestic copper is still being warehoused, and under the drag of low - priced imported goods, the spot premium of Shanghai copper may further decline. However, as it is Friday tomorrow, the downstream procurement sentiment is expected to be strong, so the decline of the spot premium of Shanghai copper is limited [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 21, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 579,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the 14th and a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to the 18th. In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 611,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In July 2025, the export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 145,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [10]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,700 - 122,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,100 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,400 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Relevant Charts The report provides various charts for copper, aluminum, and nickel, including base differentials, inventory changes, and price trends. For example, for copper, there are charts of copper base differentials, domestic and overseas inventory changes, and LME copper cancellation warrant ratios; for aluminum, there are charts of aluminum base differentials, social inventory changes, and alumina inventory changes; for nickel, there are charts of nickel base differentials, inventory changes, and LME nickel trends [12][25][38]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.04% to 67.53 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.5% to 14,055 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 10,082 lots to 478,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang remained flat at 15,080 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B dropped 3 yuan to 15,240 yuan per ton. Internationally, the market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Symposium results, with the U.S. dollar index and U.S. cotton prices fluctuating. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton declined with reduced positions. The current tight commercial cotton inventory supports cotton prices, but the upcoming new - cotton harvest (a likely bumper crop) exerts upward pressure. The over - capacity of ginning mills and pre - sales of new cotton support the purchase expectations. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain firm and fluctuate in the short term [2]. - For sugar, in July 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premixes totaled 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. Spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing sugar mills were mostly down 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar futures lack a clear direction, showing a range - bound trend. The domestic investment market sentiment is optimistic, with sugar spot trading improving and prices slightly rising. However, facing pressure near previous highs and the weak performance of raw sugar, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to continue with a range - bound pattern [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market is affected by macro factors, and the domestic market has a complex situation with inventory support and new - cotton supply pressure. The short - term outlook is a firm and fluctuating trend [2]. - **Sugar**: Import volume decreased, spot prices adjusted downward, and the futures market is range - bound due to lack of direction in raw sugar and pressure near previous highs [2]. Day - to - day Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 255 yuan, up 25 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,185 yuan, up 42 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,080 yuan (unchanged), and the national price was 15,240 yuan, down 3 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 62 yuan, up 2 yuan; the main contract basis was 314 yuan, down 25 yuan [3]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On August 20, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 141 to 7,455, with 249 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data also changed [5]. - **Sugar**: On August 20, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5,970 yuan and 5,990 yuan respectively. The sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 242 to 16,244, with 1 valid forecast [5][6]. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index of cotton over different time periods [9][11][12][13][14][15]. - **Sugar**: Charts display the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar over different years [17][18][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton: The 01 contract of cotton may face the pressure of expected high - yield new cotton and low opening price, but the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season has no major contradictions. With the current cotton price at a relatively low level and limited downward drivers, in the medium - to - long - term, after the market digests the pressure of new cotton listing and along with the macro - economic improvement, the price will oscillate upwards [1]. - Sugar: The short - term sugar futures price may be boosted by the strengthening of raw sugar, but the fundamental driving force is not strong, and the sustainability of the price rebound depends on the external market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Cotton: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 2.52% to 68.44 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.79% to 13,980 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 31,124 lots to 413,000 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,052 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan per ton from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,177 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan per ton. In the international market, the US CPI annual rate was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the main contract switched to the 01 contract, and the position gradually increased. Besides the macro - factors, weather and demand should also be focused on [1]. - Sugar: In August 2024, Brazil's sugar export volume was 3.9208 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 178,200 tons. In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported 1.094 million tons of sugar and molasses, with a daily average export volume of 182,300 tons. The spot price of sugar in different regions had some adjustments. Raw sugar rebounded for three consecutive days, boosting the market sentiment [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread was - 245 yuan, down 45 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,197 yuan, down 84 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,052 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,177 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 101 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis was 362 yuan, down 35 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5,960 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,970 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. Market Information - Cotton: On August 12, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,087, down 85 from the previous day, with 282 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.5, down 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.3, up 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.4, down 0.3 [3]. - Sugar: On August 12, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 17,853, down 387 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts were presented, including those related to cotton (such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][9][11][14][17]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won many honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton and has won relevant titles [21].

软商品日报 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.1%，报收 68.3 美分/磅，CF509 环比下降 1.09%，报收 14075 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 35836 手至 46.9 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15473 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 54 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15609 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 60 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期市场关注重心仍更多在于宏观层面，美元 | | | | 指数大幅走强。中美开始会谈，关注会谈结果。美联储议息会议临近，7 月大概率 | | | | 按兵不动，关注 9 月降息概率变化。基本面驱动有限。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉 | | | 棉花 | 主力合约减仓下行。我们认为，近期郑棉驱动的主要逻辑稍有转变，9-1 价差持续 | | | | 收敛与近月偏紧、01 相对宽松是两个不同的驱动逻辑。当前棉花原料相对偏紧， | | | | 但偏紧的程度较此 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to be in a volatile pattern. ICE US cotton fell 0.86% to 68.09 cents per pound on Monday, and CF509 decreased 0.8% to 14,185 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 21,871 lots to 558,900 lots. While the low - inventory situation remains unchanged, the upward driving force has weakened. Considering the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and no obvious improvement in demand, it is difficult for prices to rise continuously. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options with higher prices and buy out - of - the - money put options with lower prices [1]. - Sugar is also expected to be volatile. In June, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Due to concerns about over - production, raw sugar prices are under pressure. Domestically, sugar producers in the production areas are actively selling to reduce inventory, and the influence of processed sugar is gradually increasing. In the short term, prices lack a clear direction, and in the medium term, they depend on the pace and intensity of imported sugar [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 9 - 1 spread is 195 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous period. The main contract basis is 1,404 yuan, an increase of 166 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,480 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,589 yuan per ton, an increase of 81 yuan [2]. - For sugar, the 9 - 1 spread is 170 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan. The main contract basis is 241 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 6,060 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - On July 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,501, a decrease of 31 from the previous trading day, with 223 valid forecasts [3]. - On July 21, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,480 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,650 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,563 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,803 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On July 21, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30.1, a decrease of 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the sugar spot prices were 6,060 yuan per ton in Nanning, an increase of 10 yuan, and 6,080 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 21,437, a decrease of 40 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, 9 - 1 spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China's cotton price index, with data sources from Wind and the research institute [6][11][13][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many awards [18]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [20].