产业研究报告 2025 年 08 月 19 日 公用事业 全球小型模块化反应堆进展及对中国的启示 小型模块化核反应堆日益受到关注。在全球减碳、用电需求增长，尤其是俄 乌冲突造成能源安全重要性凸显的背景之下，核电以零/低碳排放、高可靠性 和较好的经济性，正迎得越来越多的市场关注和更大的发展空间。相较于大 型核反应堆（百万千瓦级），小型模块化反应堆（SMR）以其部署灵活、应用 场景丰富、投资规模小和高安全性的特点，所受关注日益提高。在 IEA 报告 预测中，未来全球新增核电装机的三分之一，将来自小型模块化反应堆。 作者 分析师 张 鹏 执业证书编号：S1070524060001 邮箱：zhpengyjy@cgws.com 相关研究 1、《国际电力企业转型发展比较研究报告—公用事业》 2024-12-17 2、《碳金融产品与市场》2024-11-26 3、《燃气发电有望在新型电力系统中提升角色定位》 2024-08-29 北美地区的 SMR 研发和项目开发最为活跃。74 个项目（方案）中的 30 个 由北美地区 25 家公司开发和推进；另外有 20 个项目由欧洲 19 家机构推进； 10 个由亚洲经合组织成员国的 ...

Group 1 - Canadian company AtkinsRéalis plans to deploy its nuclear reactor technology in the United States [1] - South Korean nuclear developer Kepco and Italian-French small modular reactor company Newcleo are also considering entering the U.S. nuclear power market [1]

Group 1 - The company is advancing its fourth-generation nuclear power equipment project, which will alleviate current capacity bottlenecks and enhance production capabilities, aligning with national nuclear power development policies [1] - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million to 205 million yuan for the first half of the year, primarily due to improved order quality and the absence of previous year's subsidy impacts on the renewable energy sector [1] - The company specializes in manufacturing industrial waste heat boilers, large and special material pressure vessels, nuclear safety equipment, and environmental remediation services [1] Group 2 - The company has been manufacturing nuclear power equipment since 1998 and has completed several significant domestic and international projects [2] - Nuclear power plays a crucial role in the emerging energy system due to its economic, low-carbon, and stable characteristics, with China approving 11 nuclear power units in 2024, maintaining a global leadership position [2] - The domestic nuclear equipment localization rate has significantly increased, with key components achieving 100% localization, showcasing China's advanced nuclear technology on the global stage [3] Group 3 - The demand for small modular reactors is growing due to increasing global clean energy needs and the depletion of traditional energy resources, with supportive policies outlined in the "2030 Carbon Peak Action Plan" [3] - International cooperation in the nuclear sector is expected to strengthen, providing broader opportunities for the development of small modular reactor technology [3]

Core Viewpoint - Enea, Poland's third-largest utility company, has signed a letter of intent with SGP Industria to collaborate on the implementation of small modular reactors (SMRs) as part of Poland's future energy structure [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - Enea views small modular reactors as a crucial component of Poland's future energy landscape [1] - The company aims to actively participate in the introduction of SMRs in Poland, both as an investor and as a technical and operational partner [1] - Enea identifies the Polaniec Nuclear Power Plant as a potential site for the construction of SMRs [1]

Core Insights - Rolls-Royce will construct the UK's first small modular reactors (SMRs) with support from the UK government, highlighting the country's commitment to nuclear energy [1] - This announcement follows a two-year selection process and coincides with the UK's pledge to invest £14.2 billion (approximately $19.2 billion) in the construction of the large Sizewell C nuclear power station in eastern England [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major tech companies like Google and Amazon are investing in advanced nuclear energy as part of their carbon neutrality goals, with Google purchasing power from Kairos Power and Amazon investing approximately $500 million in X-Energy [1][3]. Group 1: Investment and Innovation in Nuclear Energy - The partnerships with Google and Amazon could provide significant momentum for startups like Kairos and X-Energy, potentially helping them attract more funding to overcome the "innovation valley of death" [3]. - However, the financial support from these tech giants may be insufficient compared to the billions needed for the startups to succeed [3]. - The rapid advancements in computer science raise questions about the future energy demands of AI and whether they will remain high in 15 years [3]. Group 2: Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) Design - Startups and established companies are developing small modular reactors (SMRs) with unique designs, moving away from traditional nuclear power plant designs [4]. - X-Energy uses helium instead of water for cooling, while Kairos plans to use molten salt, both opting for spherical fuel balls instead of traditional fuel rods [4]. Group 3: Safety and Risks of SMRs - SMRs theoretically offer high passive safety due to lower residual heat and radioactivity compared to traditional reactors [5]. - However, reliance solely on passive cooling without backup options poses risks, and smaller reactors may have reduced efficiency [6]. - The use of high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) in new designs could introduce additional risks, as it requires a higher concentration of uranium compared to existing reactors [7]. Group 4: Cost Considerations of SMRs - While the modular manufacturing of components could lower construction costs, the inherent economies of scale in larger reactors should not be overlooked [10]. - Once the technology matures, building small modular reactors may become cheaper and faster than traditional large reactors, making them more attractive to investors [11]. Group 5: Climate Change and Nuclear Energy - Existing nuclear power plants are deemed essential for reducing emissions, and there is a debate on whether new reactors are necessary for rapid emission reductions [13]. - Renewable energy sources like solar and wind can be deployed quickly, but nuclear energy remains crucial for stable energy supply in the future [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth of renewable energy in China's energy sector, with renewable energy accounting for approximately 90% of new installed capacity in the first quarter of 2024 [1][2] - In the first quarter, the total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 76.75 million kilowatts, representing a year-on-year increase of 21% [2] - Renewable energy generation reached 816 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, making up about 35.9% of the total electricity generation [2] Group 2 - The nuclear power capacity in operation and under construction exceeded 120 million kilowatts, with a projected nuclear power generation of 450.9 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, accounting for 4.5% of the total generation [2] - The article emphasizes the support for advanced nuclear technologies and their applications in heating, steam supply, and seawater desalination [2] - Hydrogen energy is identified as a key focus area, with a projected production and consumption scale of over 36.5 million tons in 2024, making China the world's largest in this sector [3] Group 3 - Investment in energy projects has been growing rapidly, with a 12.9% year-on-year increase in investment for key energy projects in the first two months of 2024 [3] - The article discusses the role of private enterprises in the energy sector, noting that they account for over 80% of operators with more than 10,000 charging facilities [4] - New policies are aimed at enhancing the participation of private enterprises in energy infrastructure projects, including new energy technologies and traditional energy sources [4]

Group 1: Energy Supply and Consumption - The National Energy Administration reported that energy supply is sufficient, consumption is growing, and the overall supply-demand situation is relaxed with stable prices showing a downward trend [1] - In the first quarter, renewable energy accounted for 90% of new installed capacity, with an increase of 76.75 million kilowatts, representing a year-on-year growth of 21% [1] - Renewable energy generation reached 816 billion kilowatt-hours in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, making up 35.9% of total electricity generation [1] Group 2: Nuclear Energy Development - The operational and approved nuclear power installed capacity in China exceeds 120 million kilowatts, with a projected nuclear power generation of 450.9 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, accounting for 4.5% of total generation [1] - The government plans to support the development of advanced nuclear technologies, including fourth-generation reactors and small modular reactors [1] Group 3: Hydrogen Energy Sector - Hydrogen energy is a key focus, with a projected production and consumption scale exceeding 36.5 million tons in 2024, making China the world's largest producer [2] - Over 600 renewable energy electrolysis hydrogen production projects are planned, and more than 540 hydrogen refueling stations have been established [2] - Approximately 24,000 fuel cell vehicles have been promoted as part of the ongoing demonstration applications [2] Group 4: Investment in Energy Sector - Energy investments have shown rapid growth, with a 12.9% year-on-year increase in investment in key energy projects in the first two months [2] - Investments in offshore wind, new energy storage, power grids, and nuclear power are growing quickly [2] Group 5: Support for Private Enterprises - The National Energy Administration has issued a notice to support private enterprises in enhancing development momentum and fair market participation [3] - Private enterprises account for over 80% of operators with more than 10,000 charging facilities, indicating their significant role in the energy sector [3] - New nuclear power projects approved recently have at least 10% shareholding from private enterprises, highlighting their increasing involvement in energy infrastructure [3]

Group 1 - US stock market opened high with all three major indices closing up over 1%, with Nasdaq rising 1.51% and S&P 500 increasing 1.47% [5] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Meta up over 4% and Intel up over 3%, while Apple fell over 3% [5] - Chinese concept stocks saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up 3.5% [5] Group 2 - The US unemployment rate for April was reported at 4.2%, matching market expectations, while non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, exceeding the forecast of 138,000 [5] Group 3 - Offshore RMB (CNH) against the US dollar rose to 7.2103, breaking through previous highs [6] - International crude oil futures settled down over 1%, with WTI crude oil falling 1.6% to $58.29 per barrel [6] Group 4 - COMEX gold futures rose 0.77% to $3247 per ounce, while silver futures fell 0.78% to $32.215 per ounce [7] Group 5 - European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 2.53% and France's CAC40 up 2.38% [8] Group 6 - Wuhan city announced measures to support the private economy, including a plan to create a fund cluster of 300 billion yuan to support technology-driven private enterprises [13] Group 7 - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves reached a record high of over $330 billion, with investors keen to hear Warren Buffett's investment strategies at the upcoming annual meeting [20]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 3.08% on the first trading day of May [1] - Despite a seemingly positive outlook for US stocks, there was a significant outflow of $8.9 billion from the US stock market, marking the largest outflow since December 2023 [1] - The US Chamber of Commerce urged the Trump administration to implement a tariff exemption mechanism to prevent economic recession and harm to small businesses [1] Trade Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted a shift in the US stance regarding tariff negotiations, indicating a willingness to engage in talks [2] - The FTSE China A50 index futures reacted positively, rising over 0.9%, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the USD [2] - New tariff adjustments confirmed that auto parts from Canada and Mexico will be exempt from a 25% tariff starting May 3 [2] Automotive Sector - Xpeng Motors reported a record delivery of over 30,000 vehicles for six consecutive months, with specific models achieving significant sales milestones [3] - Leap Motor's delivery volume for April reached 41,039 units, a 173% year-on-year increase, leading to a stock price increase of over 7% [3] - Xiaomi's automotive division also saw a rise in deliveries, contributing to a stock increase of over 6% [3] Technology Sector - Major US tech companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Apple reported strong earnings, unaffected by tariff issues, and reaffirmed aggressive AI investment plans [4] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is anticipated to influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [4] - President Trump's recent sanctions on countries purchasing oil from Iran are viewed as a bargaining chip rather than a definitive policy change [4] Berkshire Hathaway - Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting is set to take place, where Warren Buffett will discuss market perspectives and investment strategies, including significant cash reserves [5] Nuclear Energy Development - There is a global surge in the development of small modular reactors (SMRs) driven by climate change initiatives and demand for clean energy [6] - China's advancements in SMR technology are notable, with significant projects like the BEST project aimed at demonstrating fusion energy generation [6] Company Performance - China State Construction International reported a 5.5% year-on-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, with a notable rise in technology-related income [7] - The company’s new contract value decreased by 29.1% year-on-year, but adjusted figures show a strong performance when excluding high baseline effects from previous major projects [8] - The technology segment's revenue contribution increased to 20%, indicating a positive trend in the company's business model and market positioning [8]