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7月金融数据点评:M1同比增速持续攀升
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-14 09:02
Group 1: Monetary Supply and Financing - In July, the new social financing scale reached 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9%[2] - M1 growth accelerated to 5.6% in July, up from 4.6% in the previous month, marking the highest growth since January 2023[3] - M2 growth improved to 8.8% in July, up from 8.3% in June, with the M2-M1 gap narrowing to 3.2%[3] Group 2: Loan Demand and Government Financing - Government bond issuance from January to July reached 890 billion yuan, accounting for 75% of the annual issuance plan, significantly higher than the five-year average of 47%[3] - Corporate loan demand showed a contraction, with July's corporate loans decreasing by 700 billion yuan year-on-year, the lowest level in five years[4] - Residential loans in July also fell below the five-year average, with long-term and short-term loans decreasing by 1.1 trillion yuan and 3.8 trillion yuan respectively[4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - Overall liquidity has improved, but credit remains volatile due to seasonal factors, with only a slight decline in new loans compared to June[5] - The government is currently in a process of leveraging while the private sector is de-leveraging, necessitating improved efficiency in fiscal spending to stabilize demand[5] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and the possibility of slower government bond issuance if special treasury bonds are not issued[5]
澳门金管局:5月广义货币供应量回升 流通货币及活期存款分别上升0.1%及3.4%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 11:25
Group 1: Monetary Supply and Deposits - The broad money supply in Macau increased in May 2025, with M1 rising by 2.4% and M2 increasing by 1.2% to 815.7 billion MOP [1] - Resident deposits rose by 1.3% to 794.7 billion MOP, while non-resident deposits increased by 0.4% to 351.0 billion MOP [2] - The total deposits in the banking system increased by 1.4% to 1,361.7 billion MOP, with the composition of deposits being 19.2% MOP, 47.0% HKD, 8.7% RMB, and 23.4% USD [2] Group 2: Loans - Local private sector loans decreased by 1.4% to 498.5 billion MOP, and external sector loans fell by 7.6% to 495.2 billion MOP [3] - The total private sector loans declined by 4.6% to 993.7 billion MOP, with the currency composition being 22.3% MOP, 43.8% HKD, 8.8% RMB, and 21.8% USD [3] Group 3: Banking Operations - As of the end of May 2025, the loan-to-deposit ratio for local residents dropped to 49.3%, while the overall loan-to-deposit ratio, including non-residents, decreased to 73.0% [4] - The liquidity ratios for one month and three months stood at 65.7% and 57.9%, respectively [4] - The non-performing loan ratio increased to 5.7% due to a decline in total loans [4]