Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai silver futures is high - volatility shock, and the medium - term strategy is to go long on dips without chasing high prices [3]. - A - shares showed an overall oscillating market, with shrinking trading volume, and the 60 - minute chart maintained a box - type oscillation [8]. - Gold should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [10]. - Iron ore should be viewed with a bearish bias, considering supply and demand and market trends [12][13]. - Glass should be viewed as a wide - range oscillation [16]. - Methanol is unlikely to continue a sharp rise due to its supply - demand pattern [18]. - Paper pulp has several potential positive factors, including the risk of a French pulp mill's bankruptcy, the rebound of European and American coniferous pulp prices, and the long - term positive drive of a new domestic national standard [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Silver Futures - On February 25, the main contract of Shanghai silver opened high and closed with a gain of over 4.57%, mainly due to the sharp rise of the overseas market during the Spring Festival and the subsequent catch - up in the domestic market. In the short term, it will oscillate widely between 70 - 100 US dollars per ounce in the London silver market, corresponding to a core support of 19,000 yuan per kilogram and a strong resistance area of 25,000 yuan per kilogram in the domestic market. In the medium term, the logic is bullish, supported by the supply - demand gap, industrial demand recovery, and macro - economic factors [4][5]. A - shares - The overall A - share market showed an oscillating trend on the day, with shrinking trading volume, and the 60 - minute chart maintained a box - type oscillation [8]. Gold - Affected by the overseas market's rise during the holiday, gold opened significantly higher and oscillated throughout the day, and should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [10]. Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments are normal, and there is an expectation of loose supply in the long - term due to the mine's production capacity release. On the demand side, although steel mills' resumption of production after the festival may drive demand, the start of terminal demand still needs time. Technically, the bearish trend remains [12][13]. Glass - The daily melting volume has slightly decreased, and the factory inventory has increased again during the holiday due to the seasonal off - season. The resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival needs attention. The trend is unclear in the near term, and it should be viewed as a wide - range oscillation [16][17]. Methanol - Methanol is unlikely to continue a sharp rise because its supply - demand pattern does not support continuous price increases. The domestic methanol plant operating rate remains high, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports after the festival, which suppresses prices [18]. Paper Pulp - There are three positive factors for paper pulp: the potential bankruptcy of a French pulp mill (to be verified in March), the rebound of European and American coniferous pulp prices, and the long - term positive drive of a new domestic national standard [21].

编者荐语： 展望后市，A股国庆节前延续了较为强势的走势，各大指数均在5日线之上，预计节后仍将持续趋势，需要注意3750-3900之间的区间仍是震荡为主，节后 要重点关注方向选择。板块方面，预计有色金属，固态电池，黄金等潜力较大。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者司伟杰 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 2025 年国庆假期期间，截止发稿的 1 0 月 7 日收盘，全球主要股指整体呈现上涨趋势：恒生指数涨幅 0 .38% ，恒生科技 1 .30% ，美 股三大指数微涨，韩国股市涨幅 3 . 6 4% ，日本股市表现最强上涨 6 .7% ，亚太市场显示出较强的复苏态势。大宗商品方面 COMEX 黄 金价格站上 4 000 ，涨幅超 3 .45% ，贵金属普涨，反映了避险需求或通胀预期的变化，有色金属同样较强，显示出全球工业需求的回暖 迹象。从期间涨幅来看，预计节后 A 股以平稳向好为主，且黄金、有色金属等板块可能延续强势。 展望后市， A 股国庆节前延续了较为强势的走势，各大指数均在 5 日线之上，预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to expectations of overseas monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and a recovery in industrial demand [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Silver Prices - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are a primary factor, with expectations of future rate cuts supporting precious metal prices [2][3]. - Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, have heightened market risk aversion, further supporting silver prices [1][2]. - The recent dovish comments from new Federal Reserve Governor Milan, advocating for significant rate cuts, have positively influenced market expectations and contributed to the rebound in silver prices [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Demand - The silver market is experiencing a favorable fundamental situation, particularly due to a recovery in the photovoltaic industry, which has seen a significant increase in demand for silver [2]. - Investment demand for silver has risen sharply, as evidenced by the increase in holdings of major silver ETFs from 25,999 tons at the beginning of the year to 27,681 tons by mid-September, an increase of 1,682 tons [3]. - The global silver supply-demand gap is projected to reach 3,659 tons by 2025, indicating a continued supply shortage that will drive strong international silver prices [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current gold-silver ratio is at 85.63, significantly above the historical average of 62.09, suggesting potential for further correction and upward movement in silver prices [3]. - Key factors to monitor include potential adjustments to China's LPR loan rates, future indications from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, developments in geopolitical situations, and economic data from major countries [3].

Group 1: International Recognition of Palestine - Multiple countries, including the UK, Canada, Australia, and Portugal, have officially recognized the State of Palestine, aiming to revive hopes for peace and the viability of a two-state solution [3][4]. - UK Prime Minister Starmer emphasized the need to end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and condemned Israel's actions as intolerable [3]. - Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau stated that the recognition is part of a coordinated international effort to maintain the feasibility of the two-state solution, criticizing Israel's settlement expansions [3][4]. Group 2: Israeli Military Actions - The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported that over 550,000 people have evacuated from northern Gaza City as military operations against Hamas intensify [6][7]. - The IDF has entered Gaza City, marking a new phase in military operations that may last for months [8]. - The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, has expressed that the recognition of Palestine by other nations threatens Israel's existence and reiterated its pursuit of peace through strength [4][5]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver futures prices surged, reaching a record high of 10,223 yuan per kilogram, driven by expectations of changes in U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and recovering industrial demand [11][12]. - Analysts noted that the recent increase in silver prices is influenced by dovish comments from new Federal Reserve officials, suggesting potential interest rate cuts [12][13]. - The silver market is expected to remain strong due to a projected supply-demand gap and increased investment demand, particularly in the photovoltaic sector [14].