光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周四 WTI 与布伦特原油期货因圣诞节假期休市，SC2602 以 444.7 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.7 元/桶，涨幅为 0.38%。俄罗斯今年的石油和 凝析油产量与 2024 年大致持平，约为 5.16 亿吨，即约 1032 万桶 | | | | /日。诺瓦克称，俄罗斯将继续以 OPEC+形式开展工作。全球石 | | | | 油市场保持平衡，OPEC+机制在双向调节产量方面成效显著。荷 | | | 原油 | 兰银行 ING 认为，2026 年石油盈余将对油价产生影响。在 OPEC+ | 震荡 | | | 决定以快于预期的速度逐步取消供应削减措施后，石油市场的盈 | | | | 余量在 2026 年内势必会有所增加。尽管今年价格表现疲软，但非 | | | | OPEC 国家的供应预计也将以稳健的速度增长。根据该银行的平 | | | | 衡表，预计到 2026 年将出现超过每日 200 万桶的过剩。进入假 | | | | 期，油价预计延续震 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 周四WTI与布伦特原油期货因圣诞节假期休市，SC2602以444.7元/桶收盘，上涨1.7元/桶，涨幅为 0.38%。俄罗斯今年的石油和凝析油产量与2024年大致持平，约为5.16亿吨，即约1032万桶/日。诺瓦克 称，俄罗斯将继续以OPEC+形式开展工作。全球石油市场保持平衡，OPEC+机制在双向调节产量方面 成效显著。荷兰银行ING认为，2026年石油盈余将对油价产生影响。在OPEC+决定以快于预期的速度逐 步取消供应削减措施后，石油市场的盈余量在2026年内势必会有所增加。尽管今年价格表现疲软，但非 OPEC国家的供应预计也将以稳健的速度增长。根据该银行的平衡表，预计到2026年将出现超过每日 200万桶的过剩。进入假期，油价预计延续震荡运行。 燃料油： 周四，上期所燃料油主力合约FU2603收涨0.61%，报2489元/吨；低硫燃料油主力合约LU2603收涨 0.33%，报3016元/吨。截至12月24日当周，富查伊拉燃料油库存录1068.1万桶，环比前一周减少224.7万 桶（17.38%）。从基本面看，低硫燃料油市场结构小幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC and its allies will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day next month, balancing the interests of Russia and Saudi Arabia amid declining oil prices [1] Group 1: Production Increase - OPEC and its allies confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for the upcoming month [1] - Russia advocates for a moderate supply increase to maintain price adjustments, while Saudi Arabia focuses on market share, supporting a larger production increase [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Recent oil prices have dropped to a near four-month low, prompting OPEC and its allies to exercise caution in maintaining market balance [1] - Despite new supply, prices have remained relatively stable, but signs indicate a market shift is beginning [1] Group 3: Inventory and Demand Forecast - Significant increases in Middle Eastern oil product inventories have been noted, with futures curves showing signs of weakness in the short term [1] - The International Energy Agency predicts a rapid increase in inventories this quarter, with a record surplus expected by 2026 due to cooling global demand and surging supply from the Americas [1]

Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.30% to 3820.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose, closing at 13070.86 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34% to 3091.00 points [1] - Last Friday, the trading volume in the A-share market was 2.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of 817.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Since August 13, the A-share market has seen trading volumes exceed 2 trillion yuan for 28 consecutive trading days [1] Sector Movements - High-priced stocks experienced a sharp decline, particularly in the humanoid robot sector, which faced a wave of limit-downs, indicating strong profit-taking sentiment among investors [1] - Bank stocks rebounded near the half-year line, and the coal sector also showed performance, indicating a shift of funds towards dividend-paying sectors [1] Economic Environment - The overall positive macroeconomic support for the market remains unchanged, with liquidity conditions improving due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and continued domestic monetary easing [2] - Domestic economic structural adjustments and effective growth stabilization policies are leading to continuous recovery in corporate profits, with consumer spending and stable growth in manufacturing investment [2] - The current market fluctuations are seen as a phase of adjustment within a "slow bull" market, indicating a search for new balance and preparation for future market movements [2]

Group 1 - The oil minister of Kuwait expresses an optimistic view on the fundamentals of the oil market [1] - OPEC+ efforts are aimed at ensuring energy security and market balance [1]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the cyclical nature of futures indices, highlighting the importance of time constraints and the balance they provide in market movements [1][3] - Futures contracts are compared to seasonal cycles, where their expiration signifies not an end but a new beginning, akin to the harvest leading to new growth [3] - The fluctuations in indices reflect collective market sentiment, with rises and falls representing a chorus of emotions rather than isolated events [1][3] Group 2 - The transition between bullish and bearish trends is likened to the natural cycle of day and night, illustrating the interdependence of opposing forces in the market [1] - Post-market analysis is crucial for understanding market dynamics, allowing participants to learn from both expected and unexpected movements [3] - The essence of futures indices lies in finding balance amidst volatility, akin to the rhythms of life, where movement and stillness coexist [3]

Energy - The UAE Energy Minister stated that OPEC+ is making every effort to balance the market and ensure sufficient investment in supply. Without OPEC+, especially the G7, the situation would descend into chaos [2] Precious Metals and Mining - The Governor of Florida signed a bill recognizing gold and silver as legal tender [3] - The Brazilian government announced an extension of trade protection measures for the steel industry, maintaining a 25% tariff on 19 steel products and expanding this measure to four additional products [3] - France and Indonesia signed a strategic defense cooperation agreement and agreements in agriculture and critical minerals [3] Agriculture - The Mexican Ministry of Agriculture announced an agreement with the U.S. to reopen Mexican beef exports to the U.S. [3] - Canada is projected to export 896,968 tons of canola seed by March 2025 [3] Oil and Gas - A Reuters survey indicated that Saudi Arabia's crude oil prices for Asia may drop to a six-month low in July [4] - Chevron received limited permission to continue operations in Venezuela from the U.S. [4] - The Australian Environment Department approved the Woodside LNG project extension in the northwest until 2070 [4] - Oman’s oil revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to decline by 13% year-on-year to 1.468 billion rials [4]

Core Viewpoint - The UAE Energy Minister stated that without sacrifices from the OPEC group, market balance would not be achievable [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the importance of OPEC's collective actions in stabilizing the oil market [1] - It suggests that individual member sacrifices are crucial for overall market equilibrium [1]