Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, leading to significant declines in coking coal and coke prices, while steel, iron ore, and thermal coal prices are showing oscillatory trends [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3,248 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil main contract closed at 3,397 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 101,000 tons. Building materials production and sales are basically stable, with little change in inventory, and the overall performance is slightly better than the seasonal average. As costs continue to rise, building materials prices are increasing. Plate production has declined, and the fundamentals are better than the seasonal average, with exports significantly boosting plate consumption. Recently, a series of policies such as anti-involution, expanding domestic demand, and stabilizing growth have been intensively proposed, boosting market sentiment and causing the futures market to rise continuously. However, with the sharp decline in coking coal on Friday night, the market sentiment has cooled down to some extent. Overall, the current fundamentals of the steel market are still good [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined weakly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and most quotes were adjusted according to the market. The total iron ore trading volume at major ports across the country was 1.125 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.61%. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipments rebounded slightly this period, with a total shipment volume of 32.009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 918,000 tons. The total arrival volume at 45 ports this period was 22.405 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.307 million tons. In July, there is a seasonal decline in iron ore shipments, but due to the recent increase in iron ore prices, the supply support is stronger than in previous years. In terms of demand, the current hot metal production remains at a high level, and there are no large - scale maintenance plans for steel mills in the short term, so the consumption and demand for iron ore are resilient. In terms of inventory, there is no obvious increase in port inventory. Overall, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are good. In the short term, after the price increase, the market sentiment has cooled down to some extent. In the future, attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production and the floating volume of iron ore at sea [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures were weak throughout the day, and the main contracts of both coking coal and coke hit the daily limit down. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has gradually recovered to a high level recently, and there is an expectation of supply restoration. For coking coal, affected by safety and environmental inspections, there are still disruptions in mine - end supply, but the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased, and future supply restoration needs to be monitored. In terms of demand, the hot metal production remains at a high level, providing rigid support for coking coal. The price increase has attracted speculative demand and driven consumption. For coke, the third round of price increases has been implemented, compressing the profits of coking enterprises, but the demand remains stable supported by the high - level hot metal production. Currently, the market sentiment has subsided, black building materials prices have generally declined, and terminal demand has weakened due to seasonal factors [5][6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are recommended to adopt an oscillating strategy, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, increased rainfall has affected production and sales, resulting in mixed price changes and a cooling of the price - support sentiment. At ports, there is a structural shortage of coal. After the downstream's phased rigid - demand procurement is completed, as the high - temperature range gradually expands, the daily consumption is gradually increasing. Traders are optimistic about the peak - season market, and market quotes are rising. In terms of imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal is inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, resulting in low liquidity. Indonesian low - calorie coal has obvious cost - performance advantages, and there are many downstream tenders [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Overseas, the trade agreement between the US and Japan and the positive negotiations with the EU boosted investor confidence, leading to a collective rise in the three major US stock indices. Domestically, the strong upward movement of the financial sector provided strong support for the index, but overall market sentiment tended to be cautious, with signs of profit - taking in previously strongly rebounding sectors. It is expected that the cautious market sentiment will continue today. Although the view of strategically bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long term is maintained, short - term operations need to be cautious [1][2][3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **International Trade**: The US and Japan reached a trade agreement. The "reciprocal tariff" rate imposed by the US on Japan will be reduced from 25% to 15%. Japan will increase the import of US rice under the "minimum access system" and commit to investing $550 billion in the US. Japan will purchase $8 billion worth of US goods. The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products. China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [1] - **Stock Market**: In the domestic spot market, the three major A - share indices rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3582.30 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.01%. Sector indices mostly declined, with non - bank finance, beauty care, and household appliances leading the gains, while building materials, national defense and military industry, machinery, and power equipment sectors leading the losses. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 1.9 trillion yuan. In the overseas market, the three major US stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.14% to close at 45010.29 points [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures showed differentiation, with only the IM discount continuing to repair. In terms of trading volume and open interest, both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased [2] Strategy - Overseas events boosted investor confidence, while domestic market sentiment was cautious. Although the medium - to - long - term view is bullish on stock indices, short - term operations should be cautious [3] Chart Summary - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [7][8][10] - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on July 23, 2025, and July 22, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. There are also charts of the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [13][14] - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Tables show the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), the basis of stock index futures (including different contract periods), and the inter - period spreads of stock index futures. There are also corresponding charts for each item [18][40][50]

Market Overview - On Tuesday evening, rebar futures contract 10 experienced weak fluctuations, closing at 3107, down 0.45% [1] Fundamental Summary - Starting from July 16 at 9:30 AM, Shougang Changzhi has uniformly lowered the prices of rebar and ribbed steel by 20 CNY/ton, and for wire rod and line materials by 30 CNY/ton, while other varieties remain stable [2] - As of the week ending July 10, rebar production, social inventory, and apparent demand have shifted from increase to decrease, while factory inventory has shifted from decrease to increase. Rebar production was 2.1666 million tons, a decrease of 44,200 tons week-on-week, down 2%; apparent demand was 2.215 million tons, a decrease of 33,700 tons week-on-week, down 1.50% [2] - On July 15, domestic steel market prices showed mixed trends, with Tangshan Qian'an's ordinary square billet ex-factory price down 10 CNY, reported at 2950 CNY/ton. One steel mill raised the ex-factory price of construction steel by 50-80 CNY/ton. The average price of rebar in major cities nationwide was 3287 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY from the previous trading day [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guantong Futures stated that under the dual weakness of supply and demand, along with gradually cooling market sentiment, rebar prices are significantly under pressure, with limited rebound potential, and are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term [3] - Ruida Futures noted that in the macro aspect, fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% in the first half of the year, with real estate development investment declining by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.8% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8%. In terms of supply and demand, weekly rebar production was adjusted downwards, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.49%; factory inventory increased while social inventory decreased, with total inventory at 5.4037 million tons showing a slight decline again, and apparent demand down by 33,700 tons. Overall, the orderly exit of backward production capacity driven by anti-involution still supports the steel market, but weak real estate data drags down steel prices. Technically, the MACD indicator for RB2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downwards, with green bars expanding. In terms of operations, short-term trading is suggested in the 3140-3090 range, with attention to risk control [3]

Core Insights - Major shipping companies such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd continue to operate in the Strait of Hormuz despite market sentiment cooling and Maersk's second adjustment of the W27 opening price [1] Group 1 - Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are still navigating the Strait of Hormuz, indicating ongoing operational resilience in a challenging environment [1] - Market sentiment has cooled, suggesting potential concerns or uncertainties affecting the shipping industry [1] - Maersk has lowered the W27 opening price for the second time, raising questions about the remaining capacity for further reductions in the European shipping line [1]

Group 1 - Market sentiment is cooling, leading to gold being trapped in a narrow range of fluctuations [1] - Senior futures researcher Leo is analyzing the current market landscape and providing insights on the future trends of gold, crude oil, and other commodities [1]