当前债券产品的投资环境呈现出复杂多变的特征，既蕴含机遇，也充满挑战。机遇在于，若投资组合中包含可 转债，则收益表现可观；挑战则在于，若仍沿袭去年长久期资产的配置策略，则业绩可能不尽如人意。 此外，资管新规的实施与地方政府债务化债进程，也会继续深远地影响固收行业。随着国内固收市场日益规范 化、标准化，信用风险被更加充分地定价，固收产品的投资策略也需更加精细化。相较于权益投资者的自下而 上方法论，固收人员更适合采用自上而下的宏观形势分析。特别是随着ETF数量的增多，越来越多的投资工具 可服务于大类资产配置，这无疑为"固收+"产品提供了有力支持。 在此背景下，广义的"固收+"产品无疑是未来固收行业发展的必然趋势。无论"+"的部分是可转债、股票ETF、 大类资产ETF还是商品等CTA策略，"固收+"产品的投资策略丰富化与多样化仍处于起步阶段，这恰恰是未来 发展的重大机遇。 展望2026年固收投资，我认为低利率环境在财政发力的大环境下出现趋势性扭转的概率不大，甚至随着前几年 收益偏高资产的陆续到期，明年静态票息的收益可能会更低。因此，固收类产品仍需通过交易实现收益增厚。 结合宏观环境， 明年市场需关注两大线索：一是居民 ...

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire report were provided. Core Views - The macro - economic situation is complex. In the domestic market, economic growth is slowing, but policy support is in place. The stock market is strong, while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the fluctuation center is around 7.10, and there is no sign of a trend appreciation for now. The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policies, and excessive bets on loose policies may bring risks [4]. - The stock index has support below due to pre - holiday risk - aversion, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The bond market is expected to remain volatile, and the current market lacks positive drivers [8][9]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunities of the 12 - contract [11]. - Precious metals may be bullish in the long - term, but the short - term upward momentum is weakening. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday [12][16]. - Copper is expected to remain stable and may fluctuate slightly above 80,000 yuan per ton. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly [17][18]. - Zinc is expected to move downward slowly. Nickel and stainless steel short - positions can be stopped and reduced at low prices, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - guidance [20][21]. - Tin is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities. Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday. Lead is expected to be cautiously bullish [26][29]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. Iron ore is expected to trade based on fundamentals and fluctuate. Coking coal and coke are anti - falling, and it is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [31][33][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and their downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. - Crude oil is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate in a range. PTA - PX prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to try long positions cautiously. Methanol is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [43][46][48]. - PP's downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices. PE is expected to fluctuate [51][54]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a weak state, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - Rubber is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - Pulp is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. Logs are expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [70][71]. - Propylene investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74]. Summary by Directory Macro - The US manufacturing and service PMI declined in September, and the eurozone manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range. The Fed's interest - rate cut path has differences, and the market is concerned about the PCE data [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1133 on the previous trading day, up 15 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.1057, up 49 basis points. The RMB is expected to fluctuate around 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated yesterday, and the large - cap index was relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6][8]. Bond - The bond market fell yesterday, and it is recommended to use a volatile trading idea and buy long positions at intervals [9]. Shipping - The shipping index (European line) futures price fell back. The spot price of some shipping companies increased, while others decreased. It is expected to fluctuate, and the 12 - contract can be considered for long positions [10][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose and then fell on Tuesday. The upward momentum weakened. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday. The medium - and long - term may be bullish, and the short - term may be adjusted [12][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price remained stable at around 80,000 yuan per ton, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly above this level [17]. - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by macro - policies and fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction [18]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in an oversupply state, and the price is expected to be weak [19]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to move downward slowly, and it is recommended to buy put options or sell call options [20][21]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to stop and reduce short positions at low prices [21][22]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [24]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24][25]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The price is expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday [26][27]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to be cautiously bullish [29]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of crude steel has shrunk, and the demand has improved slightly. The inventory is still at a high level, and the price is expected to fluctuate [31]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply has recovered, and the demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to fluctuate [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is anti - falling. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [35]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The cost provides support, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price rebounded, but it is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - **LPG**: The price rebounded with emotions and crude oil, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [41][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The price declined due to pessimistic emotions. It is recommended to try long positions cautiously [44][46]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [48]. - **PP**: The downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices [51]. - **PE**: The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The price fell, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - **Rubber**: It is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [70]. - **Logs**: The price is expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [71]. - **Propylene**: Investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74].

Core Insights - The 19th National Futures (Options) Real Trading Competition and the 12th Global Derivatives Real Trading Competition are entering the final month, with participants engaged in intense competition [1] - The overall market has shown a strong stock index and significant structural differentiation in commodity markets, influenced by macro policies, external environments, and supply-demand dynamics [1] Market Dynamics - In April, the "tariff shock and market adjustment phase" saw U.S. tariffs on China causing market volatility, leading to short-term pressure on stock indices and declines in energy and some export-dependent commodities, while agricultural products like soybean meal surged due to supply concerns [1] - The "policy game and structural differentiation phase" from May to June indicated a recovery in domestic economic data and policy expectations supporting a rebound in stock indices, while commodity markets returned to fundamental supply-demand dynamics [1] - The "expectation reshaping and style rebalancing phase" in July and August revealed a "de-involution" trend in domestic commodity markets, with gold prices reflecting a redefinition by global investors [1] Participant Insights - As the competition nears its end, many varieties are experiencing a volatile trading environment, making it challenging for participants to navigate [2] - Key factors for participants to monitor include the sustainability of domestic policy effects, the performance of traditional peak seasons like "Golden September and Silver October," and the clarity of overseas policy environments, particularly regarding U.S. interest rate changes and U.S.-China trade relations [2] Competition Statistics - As of September 1, the global competition had 528 accounts with total participation funds of $43.9 million [3] - The "Futures Star Competition" and various awards have seen significant participation, with notable rankings in different categories, indicating a robust engagement in the trading community [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in commodity prices, economic indicators for July, and the implications of rising tariffs in the U.S. on international trade dynamics. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - In July, commodity futures prices surged due to expectations of reduced competition, with polysilicon leading the price increase, followed by glass and coking coal [2] - However, in the last week of July, the trading activity cooled significantly due to policy guidance, resulting in sharp declines in previously rising commodities such as coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and glass, which fell by 21.2%, 13.7%, 12.2%, respectively [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators for July - The PMI for July decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3, indicating a decline in economic activity compared to June [4] - The estimated PPI growth rate for July is around -3.3%, while the CPI year-on-year is approximately -0.2% [5] - Exports are expected to maintain resilience, with a projected growth rate of around 4% for July [6] - Retail sales growth is anticipated to be around 4.6%, reflecting a slight decline in the "trade-in" program [7] - Industrial output is expected to show a year-on-year increase of about 5.8% [7] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 2.8%, with real estate sales showing weak sentiment [8] - Social financing is expected to rise to approximately 9.1% in July, supported by government bonds [9] Group 3: U.S. Tariff Increases - On July 31, the White House announced an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariff" rates for certain countries, effective August 7, with Canada’s tariffs effective August 1 [10] - The new tariff structure includes a minimum rate of 10% for allied countries, a 15% rate for countries with small trade surpluses with the U.S., and higher rates for major trading partners like Canada and Mexico, which face tariffs of 35% and 25%, respectively [10][12] - Compared to the existing rates in May, the upcoming reciprocal tariffs represent a significant increase, which may shift traders from exporting to inventory management [12] Group 4: Government Debt Issuance - In July, government bond issuance slightly decreased, with a total issuance of 2.4 trillion yuan and net financing of 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 632.2 billion yuan year-on-year [12] - As of the end of July 2025, the net financing scale of government bonds reached 9.0 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 65.3% [12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing geopolitical disturbances affecting the gold market, leading to fluctuations in prices [1] - It highlights the insights from a senior futures researcher, Leo, who is analyzing the current market landscape and future trends for gold and crude oil [1] - The focus is on the fundamental aspects of commodities and their future trajectories, indicating a comprehensive market analysis [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has released hawkish signals, impacting market sentiment towards gold [1] - Gold has failed to break free from its oscillating market conditions, indicating ongoing volatility [1] - The futures market is being analyzed for potential strategies to position ahead of upcoming trends in gold and oil [1] Group 2 - A senior futures researcher is providing in-depth analysis of the current market landscape [1] - The focus includes forward-looking assessments of the fundamentals of gold, oil, and other commodities [1]

Core Insights - The intensifying conflict in the Middle East is leading to speculation that gold prices may surge towards 3500 [1] - A senior futures researcher is analyzing the current market landscape and providing insights on the fundamentals of gold, oil, and the future trends of commodities [1] Group 1 - The ongoing conflict is impacting market dynamics, particularly in the commodities sector [1] - There is a focus on the potential upward movement of gold prices due to geopolitical tensions [1] - The analysis includes a forward-looking perspective on the fundamentals affecting gold and oil markets [1]

General Overview - Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Salt Lake Co.") has established a risk management framework for its commodity derivatives business to enhance control mechanisms and operational processes [1][2][3] - The framework is designed to comply with national laws and regulations, focusing on risk prevention and avoiding speculative trading [1][2] Organizational Structure and Responsibilities - The Shareholders' Meeting and Board of Directors are responsible for overseeing the commodity derivatives business based on its scale [2] - The Marketing Committee serves as the decision-making body for managing commodity derivatives, with specific responsibilities for approving daily hedging plans [2][3] - The Sales Branch is the primary entity responsible for executing the carbon lithium commodity derivatives business and ensuring compliance [2][3] Management Content - The Supply Chain Department is tasked with providing professional support for futures trading and ensuring transaction records are confirmed [3][4] - The Audit and Risk Control Department is responsible for risk management, monitoring the matching of accounts, and reporting to management [3][4] - The Financial Department oversees the funding review and regulatory compliance related to commodity derivatives [3][4] Risk Management Processes - The framework includes comprehensive risk management processes that address market, credit, operational, and liquidity risks [10][11] - Market risk management focuses on monitoring price fluctuations and establishing risk limits for trading [10][11] - Credit risk management involves assessing the creditworthiness of trading partners and taking preventive measures against potential defaults [10][11] Reporting and Evaluation - Monthly and quarterly reports on commodity derivatives activities are required, covering execution status, risk assessments, and financial implications [20][21] - The reports must include analyses of market conditions, compliance issues, and the effectiveness of hedging strategies [20][21] Compliance and Supervision - The framework mandates regular inspections by relevant departments to ensure adherence to regulations and internal policies [12][13] - Any violations of laws or internal guidelines will result in accountability measures against responsible personnel [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The current geopolitical situation is influencing the market, particularly in the commodities sector, with a focus on the rising prices of gold and oil [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold and oil prices are experiencing an upward trend, indicating potential investment opportunities in these commodities [1] - The live analysis by a senior researcher aims to provide insights into the current market dynamics and future trends for gold, oil, and other commodities [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The discussion includes a forward-looking perspective on the fundamentals affecting gold and oil prices, suggesting that ongoing geopolitical changes may continue to impact these markets [1]

Group 1 - Market sentiment is cooling, leading to gold being trapped in a narrow range of fluctuations [1] - Senior futures researcher Leo is analyzing the current market landscape and providing insights on the future trends of gold, crude oil, and other commodities [1]