宏观：美国 9 月制造业、服务业 PMI 回落 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1133，较上一交易日上涨 15 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1119。人民币对美元中间价报 7.1057，较上一交易日调升 49 个基点。 【重要资讯】1）美国 9 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值为 52，预期 52，8 月终值 53。服务业 PMI 初值为 53.9，综合 PMI 初值为 53.6。2）欧元区 9 月制造业 PMI 初值 49.5，预期为持 平于 50.7；服务业 PMI 初值从 50.5 升至 51.4。德国服务业 PMI 跃升至 52.5，制造业 PMI 则跌至 48.5 的四个月低位。3）英国 9 月制造业 PMI 初值意外放缓至 46.2，创 5 个月新低； 服务业 PMI 初值更是超预期下降至 51.9，拖累综合 PMI 初值跌至 4 个月新低的 51。4）美 联储——①古尔斯比：目前没有考虑降息 50 个基点。最终美联储利率可能会稳定在 3%左 右。②鲍曼：预计 2025 年共降息三次。③博斯蒂克：认为当前实际中性利率为 1.25%；未 来某个阶段可能支持将通胀目标区间设 ...

Core Insights - The 19th National Futures (Options) Real Trading Competition and the 12th Global Derivatives Real Trading Competition are entering the final month, with participants engaged in intense competition [1] - The overall market has shown a strong stock index and significant structural differentiation in commodity markets, influenced by macro policies, external environments, and supply-demand dynamics [1] Market Dynamics - In April, the "tariff shock and market adjustment phase" saw U.S. tariffs on China causing market volatility, leading to short-term pressure on stock indices and declines in energy and some export-dependent commodities, while agricultural products like soybean meal surged due to supply concerns [1] - The "policy game and structural differentiation phase" from May to June indicated a recovery in domestic economic data and policy expectations supporting a rebound in stock indices, while commodity markets returned to fundamental supply-demand dynamics [1] - The "expectation reshaping and style rebalancing phase" in July and August revealed a "de-involution" trend in domestic commodity markets, with gold prices reflecting a redefinition by global investors [1] Participant Insights - As the competition nears its end, many varieties are experiencing a volatile trading environment, making it challenging for participants to navigate [2] - Key factors for participants to monitor include the sustainability of domestic policy effects, the performance of traditional peak seasons like "Golden September and Silver October," and the clarity of overseas policy environments, particularly regarding U.S. interest rate changes and U.S.-China trade relations [2] Competition Statistics - As of September 1, the global competition had 528 accounts with total participation funds of $43.9 million [3] - The "Futures Star Competition" and various awards have seen significant participation, with notable rankings in different categories, indicating a robust engagement in the trading community [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in commodity prices, economic indicators for July, and the implications of rising tariffs in the U.S. on international trade dynamics. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - In July, commodity futures prices surged due to expectations of reduced competition, with polysilicon leading the price increase, followed by glass and coking coal [2] - However, in the last week of July, the trading activity cooled significantly due to policy guidance, resulting in sharp declines in previously rising commodities such as coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and glass, which fell by 21.2%, 13.7%, 12.2%, respectively [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators for July - The PMI for July decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3, indicating a decline in economic activity compared to June [4] - The estimated PPI growth rate for July is around -3.3%, while the CPI year-on-year is approximately -0.2% [5] - Exports are expected to maintain resilience, with a projected growth rate of around 4% for July [6] - Retail sales growth is anticipated to be around 4.6%, reflecting a slight decline in the "trade-in" program [7] - Industrial output is expected to show a year-on-year increase of about 5.8% [7] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 2.8%, with real estate sales showing weak sentiment [8] - Social financing is expected to rise to approximately 9.1% in July, supported by government bonds [9] Group 3: U.S. Tariff Increases - On July 31, the White House announced an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariff" rates for certain countries, effective August 7, with Canada’s tariffs effective August 1 [10] - The new tariff structure includes a minimum rate of 10% for allied countries, a 15% rate for countries with small trade surpluses with the U.S., and higher rates for major trading partners like Canada and Mexico, which face tariffs of 35% and 25%, respectively [10][12] - Compared to the existing rates in May, the upcoming reciprocal tariffs represent a significant increase, which may shift traders from exporting to inventory management [12] Group 4: Government Debt Issuance - In July, government bond issuance slightly decreased, with a total issuance of 2.4 trillion yuan and net financing of 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 632.2 billion yuan year-on-year [12] - As of the end of July 2025, the net financing scale of government bonds reached 9.0 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 65.3% [12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing geopolitical disturbances affecting the gold market, leading to fluctuations in prices [1] - It highlights the insights from a senior futures researcher, Leo, who is analyzing the current market landscape and future trends for gold and crude oil [1] - The focus is on the fundamental aspects of commodities and their future trajectories, indicating a comprehensive market analysis [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has released hawkish signals, impacting market sentiment towards gold [1] - Gold has failed to break free from its oscillating market conditions, indicating ongoing volatility [1] - The futures market is being analyzed for potential strategies to position ahead of upcoming trends in gold and oil [1] Group 2 - A senior futures researcher is providing in-depth analysis of the current market landscape [1] - The focus includes forward-looking assessments of the fundamentals of gold, oil, and other commodities [1]

以伊冲突加剧，黄金要冲击3500了？商品期货如何把握机会？期货资深研究员Leo正在为您深度剖析当 前市场格局，前瞻黄金、原油基本面以及大宗商品的未来走势。立即进入直播间。 相关链接 金十期货正在直播 ...

General Overview - Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Salt Lake Co.") has established a risk management framework for its commodity derivatives business to enhance control mechanisms and operational processes [1][2][3] - The framework is designed to comply with national laws and regulations, focusing on risk prevention and avoiding speculative trading [1][2] Organizational Structure and Responsibilities - The Shareholders' Meeting and Board of Directors are responsible for overseeing the commodity derivatives business based on its scale [2] - The Marketing Committee serves as the decision-making body for managing commodity derivatives, with specific responsibilities for approving daily hedging plans [2][3] - The Sales Branch is the primary entity responsible for executing the carbon lithium commodity derivatives business and ensuring compliance [2][3] Management Content - The Supply Chain Department is tasked with providing professional support for futures trading and ensuring transaction records are confirmed [3][4] - The Audit and Risk Control Department is responsible for risk management, monitoring the matching of accounts, and reporting to management [3][4] - The Financial Department oversees the funding review and regulatory compliance related to commodity derivatives [3][4] Risk Management Processes - The framework includes comprehensive risk management processes that address market, credit, operational, and liquidity risks [10][11] - Market risk management focuses on monitoring price fluctuations and establishing risk limits for trading [10][11] - Credit risk management involves assessing the creditworthiness of trading partners and taking preventive measures against potential defaults [10][11] Reporting and Evaluation - Monthly and quarterly reports on commodity derivatives activities are required, covering execution status, risk assessments, and financial implications [20][21] - The reports must include analyses of market conditions, compliance issues, and the effectiveness of hedging strategies [20][21] Compliance and Supervision - The framework mandates regular inspections by relevant departments to ensure adherence to regulations and internal policies [12][13] - Any violations of laws or internal guidelines will result in accountability measures against responsible personnel [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The current geopolitical situation is influencing the market, particularly in the commodities sector, with a focus on the rising prices of gold and oil [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold and oil prices are experiencing an upward trend, indicating potential investment opportunities in these commodities [1] - The live analysis by a senior researcher aims to provide insights into the current market dynamics and future trends for gold, oil, and other commodities [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The discussion includes a forward-looking perspective on the fundamentals affecting gold and oil prices, suggesting that ongoing geopolitical changes may continue to impact these markets [1]

Group 1 - Market sentiment is cooling, leading to gold being trapped in a narrow range of fluctuations [1] - Senior futures researcher Leo is analyzing the current market landscape and providing insights on the future trends of gold, crude oil, and other commodities [1]