Group 1 - The current market is experiencing heightened speculative behavior and rising leverage levels, leading to accumulated bubble risks [1][2][3] - Goldman Sachs indicates that speculative trading activity is at historical highs, only surpassed by the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [1][2] - Deutsche Bank warns that margin debt has exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, with an 18.5% increase in margin debt over two months, marking the fastest pace since late 1999 or mid-2007 [1][3] Group 2 - Bank of America highlights that loose monetary policy and relaxed financial regulations are contributing to increased bubble risks, with global policy rates expected to drop further [1][4] - The increase in speculative trading is reflected in the rising trading volumes of unprofitable stocks and those with high valuation multiples, particularly among major tech companies and firms involved in digital assets [2][3] - The potential for a widening of high-yield credit spreads by 80 to 120 basis points is anticipated due to the rapid growth of margin debt [3]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 税期后预计资金面将重回平稳 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 7 月 14 日-7 月 18 日，央行 7 天逆回购净投放资金， MLF 到期 1000 亿元，买断式逆 回购操作 14000 亿元；税期资金面有所收紧。2025 年 7 月 14 日-7 月 20 日，政府债净缴款规 模增加，同业存单到期收益率多数下行，银行间债券市场杠杆率下降。2025 年 7 月 21 日-7 月 27 日，政府债预计净缴款 2849 亿元，同业存单到期规模约为 10765 亿元。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 税期后预计资金面将重回平稳 2] ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 [Table_Summary2] 资金面 税期央行净投放流动性。2025 年 7 月 14 日-7 月 18 日，央行逆回购投放 ...

对于长期看好的蓝筹股，可采用"长期投资+短期杠杆"模式，长期仓位持有不动，用杠杆资金在短期回 调时加仓，反弹5%-8%后偿还融资，既放大短期收益，又不影响长期持仓。例如长期持有100万元某蓝 筹股，当股价回调10%，用1:1杠杆融资50万元加仓，反弹7%后卖出加仓部分，偿还融资后可额外获利 约3.5万元（扣除利息）。 特殊市场情况应对 当市场出现单日暴跌5%以上的极端行情，无论持仓标的盈亏，立即将杠杆比例降至1:0.5以下，若担保 比例已低于130%，优先卖出跌幅较小的标的补充担保。遇到上市公司突发重大利好（如并购重组）， 若持仓标的未停牌，可在利好公布后首个交易日加仓，但加仓杠杆比例不超过1:1，且加仓部分设置 10%的止盈线。若标的股票被暂停上市，需在3个交易日内补充等值现金担保物，否则将按规定强制平 仓。 与长期投资结合 标的行业分散 融资额度调整技巧 当连续6个月未触发止损且担保比例始终维持在150%以上，可向机构申请提高融资额度，通常可提升 20%-30%。若期间有1次触发强平预警，额度提升申请会被驳回，需再观察3个月。主动降低融资额度后 （如从100万降至50万），6个月内不可再申请提高，调整前需 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England indicates that the economic outlook remains significantly uncertain [1] - Pressure in the sovereign debt market is intensifying [1] - Signs of basis trading have begun to appear in the UK government bond market [1] Group 2 - Hedge funds have recorded net repurchase borrowings reaching a record £77 billion [1] - The Bank of England will release comprehensive market leverage ratio data [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In July 2025, liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose. From the perspective of bank assets and liabilities, July is not a traditional large credit month, and the maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) in July is significantly lower than that in June. From the perspective of central bank liquidity injection, considering the external uncertainties caused by trade frictions, the central bank is expected to maintain a supportive attitude in terms of liquidity injection. However, the long - term bond yield is still at a relatively low level, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market has risen above 108% as the funding rate declines, so the room for further loosening of the funding situation is limited [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank's Net Injection**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net injection was 126.72 billion yuan. The open - market reverse repurchase of 2027.5 billion yuan will expire from June 30 to July 4. In June, the MLF net injection was 11.8 billion yuan, and the net injection of outright reverse repurchase was 20 billion yuan [6]. - **Funding Rate**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.44% respectively, with a decrease of 0.5 basis points and an increase of 0.6 basis points compared to June 16 - 20. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.65% and 1.82% respectively, with an increase of 12.8 basis points and 24.0 basis points compared to June 16 - 20 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 78.98 billion yuan, an increase of about 31.56 billion yuan compared to June 16 - 22. From June 30 to July 6, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be about - 0.594 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (ICDs) - **Yield Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M ICDs were 1.6650% and 1.6150% respectively, rising 4 basis points and 1 basis point compared to June 20, while the 1Y ICD yield was basically the same as that on June 20 [9]. - **Maturity Scale**: The ICDs have passed the peak maturity period. The maturity scale of ICDs in July is about 2.8 trillion yuan. From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the net financing of ICDs was about - 41.14 billion yuan [9]. 3. Institutional Behavior The leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 108.45%, compared with 108.25% from June 16 to June 20 [10].

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 央行呵护流动性，资金面有望延续宽松 ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月 9 日-6 月 13 日，央行 7 天逆回购小幅净回笼资金，同时公告将在 6 月 16 日进行 4000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，体现央行对流动性的呵护态度；资金面较为宽松，DR001 周内 向下突破 1.40%。2025 年 6 月 9 日-6 月 15 日，政府债净缴款规模下降，同业存单到期收益率 多数下行，银行间债券市场杠杆率有所提升。2025 年 6 月 16 日-6 月 22 日政府债预计净缴款 4334 亿元，同业存单到期规模约为 10216 亿元。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 央行呵护流动性，资金面有望延续宽松 2] ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 [Tabl ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 资金价格显著回落——流动性和机构行为周 度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 5 月 6 日-5 月 9 日，央行逆回购净回笼资金，随着央行宣布降准降息，资金利率整体 下行。2025 年 5 月 5 日-5 月 11 日，政府债小幅净偿还；同业存单净融资规模提升，同业存单 到期收益率整体明显下行；银行间债券市场杠杆率延续偏低表现，国有大行及政策行净融出规 模有所修复。2025 年 5 月 12 日-5 月 18 日政府债预计净融资 6453 亿元。 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 资金价格显著回落 2] ——流动性和机构行为周度 观察 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] [Table_Summary2] 资金面 央行逆回购净回笼资金。2025 年 5 月 6 日-5 月 9 日，央行逆回购投放 8361 亿元、 ...

机构认为，随着资金价格持续保持低位，5月可能有更多投资者会降杠杆来享受收益增厚，市场杠杆水 平也有望逐步恢复，由此信用债的配置需求也将提升，大概率从短端开启走强行情。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.62%，10年期主力合约跌0.19%，5年期主力合约跌 0.08%，2年期主力合约跌0.01%。 新华财经北京5月7日电（王菁）债市周三（5月7日）震荡走弱，早间降准降息消息带动短端收益率暂时 下探，午后期现货重回弱势；公开市场单日净回笼3353亿元，资金利率月初延续回落。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间5月6日，10年期德债收益率涨2.3BPs报2.537%，10年期意债收益率涨2.5BPs 报3.625%，10年期法债收益率涨2.2BPs报3.256%，10年期西债收益率涨2.4BPs报3.190%。其他市场方 面，10年期英债收益率涨0.4BP报4.511%。 【一级市场】 财政部3期国债中标收益率均低于中债估值。财政部28天、63天、91天期国债加权中标收益率分别为 1.2526%、1.3647%、1.3765%，边际中标收益率分别为1.3571%、1.4288%、1.4169%，全场 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 跨月资金利率整体平稳——流动性和机构行 为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 4 月 27 日-4 月 30 日，央行净投放资金，跨月资金利率整体平稳。2025 年 4 月 28 日 -5 月 4 日，政府债净融资规模提升；同业存单转为净偿还，同业存单到期收益率多数下行；银 行间债券市场杠杆率有所提升，国有大行及政策行净融出规模延续修复趋势。2025 年 5 月 5 日 -5 月 11 日政府债预计净偿还 1123 亿元。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 跨月资金利率整体平稳 2] ——流动性和机构行为 周度观察 [Table_Summary2] 资金面 央行净投放资金。2025 年 4 月 27 日-4 月 30 日，央行逆回购投放 12403 亿元、回笼 5045 亿 ...